Written by Steven Hansen
The death count due to coronavirus today rose again today. New coronavirus cases also increased. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which discuss the 63-page roadmap for reopening the U.S. prepared by the CDC but shelved by administration officials. Econintersect has provided a hyperlink to the 63-page document in this post. Also, today’s post includes discussion on Chinese hackers targeting U.S. COVID research.
One thing I have noticed is that there is a delay of a few days in reporting coronavirus testing numbers. A milestone has been reached where 0.1% of the population was tested for coronavirus in a single day. So far, 2.8 % of the population has been tested.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Policymakers may have to use additional weapons to pull the country out of an economic mire – CNBC & YouTube
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that policymakers may have to use additional weapons to pull the country out of an economic mire that has cost at least 20 million jobs and caused “a level of pain that is hard to capture in words.” Watch Chairman Powell’s full prepared statement before the discussion at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that policymakers may have to use additional weapons to pull the country out of an economic mire that has cost at least 20 million jobs and caused “a level of pain that is hard to capture in words.”
While he did not specify what those measures are and where they would come from, Powell said the coronavirus has triggered a situation unlike previous recessions the U.S. has endured, and the response may have to be more from Congress than the Fed.
[editor’s note: this second video Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he’s concerned about the possibility of a prolonged recession]
COVID-19 recession shows different recovery path than global financial crisis – The Conference Board
The Conference Board® Global Economic Outlook shows that toward the end of Q2-2020, the global economy is expected to begin a slow recovery from the COVID-19 shock. However, a full recovery in global GDP could take a long time. For mature economies, output levels won’t recover until the end of 2021. This path is similar to the recovery following the global financial crisis despite the deeper initial contraction caused by the pandemic. Emerging markets and developing economies will recover to pre-COVID-19 levels faster than mature ones and may see full recovery by early 2021. However, their long-term growth will be significantly slower than it was following the global financial crisis—but for other reasons. These economies simply do not have the unused growth potential of a decade ago. Regardless of market, businesses should prepare for a long period of slower growth.
Shoppers begin to shift from stockpiling to penny pinching at the grocery store – CNBC
U.S. shoppers are making more trips to the dollar store. They’re stocking up with items from stores’ private label brands more than usual and cutting back on snacks and sodas at convenience stores.
Those emerging data points, captured by market research firm IRI in recent weeks, may preview the next wave of grocery shopping during the coronavirus pandemic. They all have something in common: They are the buying patterns that herald an economic downturn.
“As this drags on, you are going to see a lot more recessionary behavior coming up,” said Krishnakumar Davey, president of strategic analytics for IRI. “We are just seeing the beginnings of it.”
FBI and DHS warn that Chinese hackers are targeting U.S. COVID research – CBS News
Cyber actors and “non-traditional collectors” linked to the Chinese government are targeting and possibly seeking to compromise U.S. organizations conducting COVID-19 research, two U.S. security agencies warned Tuesday.
A public service announcement from the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, said the hackers have been “attempting to identify and illicitly obtain valuable intellectual property (IP) and public health data related to vaccines, treatments, and testing from networks and personnel affiliated with COVID-19-related research.”
“The potential theft of this information jeopardizes the delivery of secure, effective, and efficient treatment options,” the announcement said.
WHO: ‘This virus may never go away’ – Reuters and YouTube
Head of the World Health Organization emergencies program tELLS reporters that the novel coronavirus may become “another endemic virus in our communities. And this virus may never go away.”
HHS whistleblower to warn Congress of ‘darkest winter in modern history’ – CNBC
Ousted federal vaccine scientist Dr. Rick Bright plans to warn Congress tomorrow that without a more coordinated federal response to the coronavirus, millions more could die. Bright is scheduled to testify tomorrow morning before the House health subcommittee.
He was removed last month from his position as director of BARDA, a key agency in the development of treatments and vaccines, because he resisted efforts to promote unproven treatments, he says.
“Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history,” Bright plans to tell members of Congress, according to his prepared remarks obtained by CNBC.
“If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities.”
IS THE CHILLING TRUTH THAT THE DECISION TO IMPOSE LOCKDOWN WAS BASED ON CRUDE MATHEMATICAL GUESSWORK? – Matt Ridley
[editor’s note: This source has libertarian leanings. Usually, when sources have political leanings – such as most of the U.S. mass media – they tend not to discuss data points at odds with the premise of their posts. However, this post is worth reading, and one can use their intelligence to sort the wheat from the chaff.]
We now know that the model’s software is a 13-year-old, 15,000-line program that simulates homes, offices, schools, people and movements. According to a team at Edinburgh University which ran the model, the same inputs give different outputs, and the program gives different results if it is run on different machines, and even if it is run on the same machine using different numbers of central-processing units.
Worse, the code does not allow for large variations among groups of people with respect to their susceptibility to the virus and their social connections. An infected nurse in a hospital is likely to transmit the virus to many more people than an asymptomatic child. Introducing such heterogeneity shows that the threshold to achieve herd immunity with modest social distancing is much lower than the 50-60 per cent implied by the Ferguson model. One experienced modeller tells us that “my own modelling suggests that somewhere between 10 per cent and 30 per cent would suffice, depending on what assumptions one makes.”
Data from Sweden support this. Despite only moderate social-distancing measures, the epidemic stopped growing in Stockholm County by mid-April, and has since shrunk significantly, implying that the herd immunity threshold was reached at a point when around 20 per cent of the population was immune, according to estimates by the Swedish public health authority.
CDC docs stress plans for more virus flareups – AP
[editor’s note: This guidance was shelved by Trump administration officials – and Associated Press obtained the 63 page document]
… the organizational tool created by the CDC advocates for a coordinated national response to give community leaders step-by-step instructions to “help Americans re-enter civic life,” with the idea that there would be resurgences of the virus and lots of customization needed. The White House said last week that the document was a draft and not ready for release.
It contains the kinds of specifics that officials need to make informed decisions, some experts said.
L.A. County could keep stay-at-home orders in place well into summer, depending on conditions – Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles County’s stay-at-home orders will “with all certainty” be extended for the next three months, county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer acknowledged during a Board of Supervisors meeting Tuesday.
Ferrer later added that even if the orders remain in place through the summer, restrictions will be “gradually relaxed” under a five-step plan.
“We are being guided by science and data that will safely move us forward along the road to recovery in a measured way—one that allows us to ensure that effective distancing and infection control measures are in place,” Ferrer said, adding that the county is counting on the public’s compliance with the orders to be able to relax restrictions.
[editor’s note: this CDC study is saying washing your hands and putting on a mask does little to suppress transmission of influenza. Although coronavirus is not influenza – the implications are that improved hygiene would not work for coronavirus either. As this study was based on laboratory testing and not real world evidence – I would take this study with a grain of salt].
In this review, we focused on 3 personal protective measures and 1 environmental measure. Other potential environmental measures include humidification in dry environments (48), increasing ventilation (49), and use of upper-room UV light (50), but there is limited evidence to support these measures. Further investigations on the effectiveness of respiratory etiquette and surface cleaning through conducting RCTs would be helpful to provide evidence with higher quality; evaluation of the effectiveness of these measures targeting specific population groups, such as immunocompromised persons, would also be beneficial (Table 2). Future cost-effectiveness evaluations could provide more support for the potential use of these measures. Further research on transmission modes and alternative interventions to reduce influenza transmission would be valuable in improving pandemic preparedness. Finally, although our review focused on nonpharmaceutical measures to be taken during influenza pandemics, the findings could also apply to severe seasonal influenza epidemics. Evidence from RCTs of hand hygiene or face masks did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza, and limited evidence was available on other environmental measures.
COVID-19 Market Monitoring Group — Update and Current Efforts – U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
We have received inquiries from various parties regarding the work of the COVID-19 Market Monitoring Group. This statement is intended to provide investors, other market participants and the public generally with further information about our ongoing efforts and, in particular information regarding (1) the status of our ongoing coordination with domestic and foreign regulatory partners and public sector officials, and (2) certain specific medium- and longer-term market analysis work streams. As discussed in more detail below, we welcome continued public engagement on these matters.
- Coordination with U.S. and Foreign Regulatory Partners and Public Sector Officials in Identifying and Responding to the Effects of COVID-19
- Initial SEC COVID-19 Market Analysis Initiatives
Trudeau suggests US-Canada border likely to remain closed through June – CNN
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said negotiations continue between his government and the Trump administration about whether to keep the border closed to nonessential traffic. The mutual border agreement is set to expire May 21.
“We are a good week away from the expiry of the current phase of our border restrictions with the United States. Conversations are ongoing, are constructive, are productive. I won’t make any announcements today, but I can say that things are going well and we’re confident about being able to continue to keep Canadians safe,” Trudeau said Wednesday.
The agreement as it stands forbids any nonessential travel, although commercial traffic continues. Canadian business groups say the border has been functioning well, allowing for a substantial flow of essential and commercial goods to cross the border in both directions.
Coronavirus: Russia now has second highest virus case total – BBC
Russia has confirmed 232,000 cases of coronavirus – the second highest toll in the world after the US.
In the last 24 hours the country has reported 10,899 infections, the tenth consecutive day that number has been above 10,000.
Among the infected is President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, local media report.
He is the latest high profile official to test positive, after Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin caught the illness.
Coronavirus: Germany to ease border controls despite surge in new cases – Independent
Germany will start relaxing border controls from Friday, according to the government, as officials press ahead with the easing of nationwide lockdown restrictions.
This comes despite a recent surge in new coronavirus cases, with the country’s R value – the virus reproduction rate – currently above the critical threshold of 1.
German interior minister Horst Seehofer announced on Wednesday that the government has agreed with authorities in France, Austria and Switzerland to reopen all border crossings from 15 May.
Mexico announces ‘new normality’ in plan to reopen economy – Al Jazeera
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has unveiled a plan to reopen the country’s economy by June 1 as part of a “new normality” after several weeks of lockdown measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
Lopez Obrador said on Wednesday the reopening of economic, social and educational activities would be “cautious and gradual”, beginning with regions of the country least affected by the disease. The plan includes a “traffic light” coding system that will inform the public in different states which businesses and activities are safe to resume.
[editor’s note: VOX is reporting that Mexico’s coronavirus cases may be 17 times higher than what is being reported]
How South Korea prevented a coronavirus disaster—and why the battle isn’t over – National Geographic
The COVID-19 testing center at H Plus Yangji Hospital in southern Seoul doesn’t look like much from the outside. Resembling a mobile home, the temporary building sits in a parking lot near a loading ramp, propped up on one end by a wooden plank. Its walls are wrapped in red and white, and billboard-like signage proclaims that the hospital was named one of the 100 best in the Republic of Korea.
But inside is a gleaming bank of four booths with transparent plastic walls; rubber gloves embedded through them in a manner similar to a high-grade biosafety lab. When a person walks into a booth, they consult over an intercom with a doctor who remains outside. The doctor can swab their nose and throat using the gloves without ever coming into contact with the patient. The booths maintain negative air pressure, which sucks in any virus-carrying airborne droplets. After the test, a staff member in protective gear disinfects the booth, scrubbing the walls with a squeegee.
Hundreds of similar “walk-in” testing booths located all over the country have been one of the pillars of South Korea’s highly successful strategy to contain COVID-19, helping officials roll out rapid and extensive diagnostic testing.
The nation of 51 million people has also taken a big data approach to contact tracing, using credit card history and location data from cell phone carriers to retrace the movements of infected people. Surveys show most Korean citizens are OK with sacrificing digital privacy to stop an outbreak. At the same time, authorities have pushed an intense—but mostly voluntary—social distancing campaign, leaving most bars, restaurants, and movie theaters free to operate.
The viral scourge is far from over in South Korea—a recent outbreak connected to several nightclubs was reported with 102 cases as of May 12. Despite this, the country’s response could serve as a model for the rest of the world, but achieving this level of speedy success in the face of a pandemic was not easy.
Coronavirus Statistics For 13 May 2020
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 22,048 | 1,370,000 | 85,359 | 4,220,000 | 25.8% | 32.5% |
| Deaths | 1,156 | 80,684 | 3,393 | 285,760 | 30.5% | 28.3% |
| Mortality Rate | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.17 | 28.24 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2020 Producer Price Final Demand Year-over-Year Growth Now In Contraction
April 2020 Sea Container Counts For Imports Improve But Remain In Contraction
Infographic Of The Day: Where COVID-19 Is Rising And Falling Around The World
Do The Bears Have A Better Case?
Bull Market Vs. Depression Economy
What US States Can Learn From COVID-19 Transition Planning In Europe
Europe-Leading UK May Be Vastly Under-Reporting COVID-19 Deaths
Covid-19: Countries In Europe With The Most Deaths
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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