Written by Steven Hansen
The death count due to coronavirus today rose today after yesterday’s one-month low.. New coronavirus cases marginally declined today to almost the lowest level seen since March 2020. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which show increased new cases in America’s heartland; and 11 pretty significant questions that are still unanswered about the coronavirus.
The general trend of new cases of coronavirus in the U.S. continues to trend down – although painfully slow.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
The FDA Issued Fast-Track Status for Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine. What That Means. – Barrons
One of the world’s highest hopes for a vaccine against the Covid-19 coronavirus will get a fast-track review from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the vaccine’s developer, Moderna, said in a Tuesday morning announcement.
“Fast Track designation underscores the urgent need for a vaccine against the novel coronavirus,” Modern’s chief medical officer, Tal Zaks, said in a news release. One of just three vaccine candidates in human trials anywhere, Moderna’s mRNA-1273 vaccine has received development funding from the federal government and research support from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, led by Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Just last week, the FDA approved Moderna to start Phase 2 studies while the company is simultaneously finishing its Phase 1 trial. The Cambridge, Mass.-based startup has gotten only modest contract revenue and runs losses in its development stage, but excitement over its prospects has lifted its stock market valuation to $25 billion.
… Moderna’s vaccines use multiple strands of the genetic instructions known as messenger RNA to cause cells to generate safe proteins that elicit immune antibodies that can later swarm similar proteins on an invading virus.
Unreleased White House report shows coronavirus rates spiking in heartland communities – NBC News
Coronavirus infection rates are spiking to new highs in several metropolitan areas and smaller communities across the country, according to undisclosed data the White House’s pandemic task force is using to track rates of infection, which was obtained by NBC News.
The data in a May 7 coronavirus task force report are at odds with President Donald Trump’s declaration Monday that “all throughout the country, the numbers are coming down rapidly.”
The 10 top areas recorded surges of 72.4 percent or greater over a seven-day period compared to the previous week, according to a set of tables produced for the task force by its data and analytics unit. They include Nashville, Tennessee; Des Moines, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; and – atop the list, with a 650 percent increase – Central City, Kentucky.
On a separate list of “locations to watch,” which didn’t meet the precise criteria for the first set: Charlotte, North Carolina; Kansas City, Missouri; Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska; Minneapolis; Montgomery, Alabama; Columbus, Ohio; and Phoenix. The rates of new cases in Charlotte and Kansas City represented increases of more than 200 percent over the previous week, and other tables included in the data show clusters in neighboring counties that don’t form geographic areas on their own, such as Wisconsin’s Kenosha and Racine counties, which neighbor each other between Chicago and Milwaukee.
11 questions about the coronavirus we still can’t answer – VOX
But there is a lot we don’t know. Although it can often feel like we’re an eternity into this disease outbreak, the reality is the SARS-CoV-2 virus that’s warped all our lives is still very new to humans and there is still a lot that we have to learn about it.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread the coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
Dr. Anthony Fauci and other leading health experts have suggested that more than one vaccine may be needed to effectively combat the COVID-19 pandemic due to production limitations and overwhelming demand.
Fauci co-authored a paper published in the journal Science on Monday, suggesting that demand for an effective coronavirus vaccine is likely to far exceed supplies of any single vaccine. The White House coronavirus task force member wrote the paper alongside Fred Hutchison Cancer Research Center’s Dr. Larry Corey and colleagues at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), including NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins and vaccine expert Dr. John Mascola.
“There is an unprecedented need to manufacture and distribute enough safe and effective vaccine to immunize an extraordinarily large number of individuals,” the paper states. “No single vaccine or vaccine platform alone is likely to meet the global need, and so a strategic approach to the multi-pronged endeavor is absolutely critical.”
Powell is expected to squash idea of negative rates, even as Trump says US would benefit – CNBC
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected Wednesday to discuss his view of the economy and the Fed’s policy actions, but market pros are waiting to hear him say the Fed has no plans for negative interest rates.
- President Donald Trump Tuesday tweeted that the U.S. should benefit from negative rates, meaning investors would pay the Treasury to hold U.S. debt.
- The market for the first time priced in a negative fed funds in the futures market last week, as investors speculated the Fed could change its mind at some point in favor of negative rates.
Trudeau promises ‘stronger measures’ for screening at Canada-U.S. border – The Globe And Mail
The federal government needs stronger measures to deal with a coming influx of people from the United States, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday – evidence that Canada is bracing for the challenge of existence next door to the world’s largest COVID-19 hot spot.
The gradual reopening of businesses and loosening of mobility restrictions in both countries will likely mean an increase in cross-border traffic, Trudeau said, and with it the need for additional steps to make sure new arrivals are adhering to self-isolation protocols.
“We are looking at stronger measures to make sure that we’re following up appropriately on people who come over,” he told his daily briefing outside the front door of his Rideau Cottage residence.
State and local governments would share nearly $1 trillion in federal aid to cover their coronavirus-related costs and families would get another round of direct payments under a stimulus bill House Democrats unveiled Tuesday.
The more than $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions Act, or HEROES Act, also would expand unemployment assistance, boost food stamps, increase emergency grants to small businesses trying to weather the COVID-19 pandemic that has slammed the economy and upended daily life in the U.S.
The bill is likely to get a cool reception in the GOP-controlled Senate where leaders have said they want to let the first $2.4 trillion of stimulus spending take full effect before moving on another measure that would pile on to the nation’s soaring debt.
Iceland to Open Borders on June 15 – Iceland Review
Iceland will open its borders to all travellers no later than June 15 and give them the option to take a coronavirus test at Keflavik International Airport on their way into the country. The country’s Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir announced this and other decisions to loosen travel restrictions to and from the country at a press conference in Reykjavik today. Iceland currently has just 15 active COVID-19 cases and has gone five days without reporting a new case, despite widespread testing.
On March 20, Iceland closed its borders to tourists from countries outside of the EEA and EFTA. That closure was scheduled to end on May 15, but will be extended for an additional month. Under current regulations, both foreigners and locals who enter the country must undergo a 14-day quarantine upon arrival. From June 15, however, tourists and Icelandic residents will be allowed to enter the country from outside the Schengen area, and all travellers given the option to get tested upon entering instead of undergoing quarantine. Authorities expect test results to be available the same day, and those who test negative for SARS-CoV-2 will not be required to quarantine themselves.
If travellers have a reliable certificate confirming they have recently tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 they will also be exempt from undergoing quarantine. Travellers will, however, be asked to download Iceland’s official contact tracing app.
Top health experts testify that the U.S. is not ‘out of the woods’ and warn against reopening too fast. – New York Times
Leaders of the Trump administration’s coronavirus response painted a grim picture on Tuesday of the months ahead, warning a Senate panel that the United States did not yet have control over the pandemic and lacked crucial capabilities to contain an inevitable surge in cases that could arise if the nation moved too quickly to reopen the economy.
A day after President Trump declared, “We have met the moment, and we have prevailed,” the experts warned of dire consequences if states did not proceed with caution in reopening.
“We are not out of the woods yet,” said Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “but we are more prepared.”
Dr. Redfield’s remark, during a high-profile – and partially virtual – hearing before the Senate’s health committee, along with comments from Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, made clear that the country was still facing steep challenges in responding to the pandemic.
They warned that a vaccine would not be ready in time for the new school year and conceded that the country still lacked an adequate contact tracing infrastructure to monitor the spread of Covid-19. The officials told senators that outbreaks in other parts of the world would surely reach the United States, and they emphasized the importance of erring on the side of caution in dealing with an unpredictable and potentially lethal disease.
“If we do not respond in an adequate way when the fall comes, given that it is without a doubt that there will be infections that will be in the community, then we run the risk of having a resurgence,” Dr. Fauci said. “I would hope that by that time, in the fall, that we would have more than enough to respond adequately. But if we don’t, there will be problems.”
Future Air Travel: Four-Hour Process, Self Check-In, Disinfection, Immunity Passes – Forbes
Considering some of the changes already happening and the many more recommended before airports can reopen safely to commercial routes, experts are referring to the coronavirus pandemic as ‘the new terrorism,’ triggering the biggest crisis the airline industry has ever faced.
Let’s start with the entire process of checking in for flights, which some calculate that it could take up to four hours and involving social distancing, sanitation of passengers and luggage, wider spaces for various lines and waiting to board.
Nine out of 10 experts expect slower turnarounds between flights due to the need of thorough cleaning of cabins and following of sanitary measures at airports.
In the short run, though, it’s expected that reduced passenger numbers and airlines traveling to a smaller pool of destinations may reduce delays.
French primary pupils trickle back to class after eight-week lockdown – Reuters
The lessons, though, did not cover maths or grammar, but hygiene amid a public health emergency: wash your hands, don’t touch your face and keep away from each other.
That was the new reality as some 1.5 million elementary and primary pupils – roughly one in every four – returned to class as France tentatively emerges from lockdown.
But with less than two months of the academic year left, some parents, teachers and their unions have questioned the wisdom of reopening schools when the virus continues to circulate, especially in the greater Paris region.
The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster – Rolling Stone
The government leaders who failed to safeguard the nation are CDC Director Redfield; FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn; Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar; and of course, President Trump. Together, these men had the power to change the direction of this pandemic, to lessen its impact on the economy, and constrain the death toll from COVID-19. Each failed, in a series of errors and mismanagement that grew into a singular catastrophe – or as Jared Kushner described it on Fox & Friends, “a great success story.”
Defeating an invisible enemy like the coronavirus requires working diagnostics. But when the CDC’s original test kit failed, there was no Plan B. The nation’s private-sector biomedical establishment is world-class, but the administration kept these resources cordoned behind red tape as the CDC foundered. Precious weeks slipped by – amid infighting, ass covering, and wasted effort – and the virus slipped through the nation’s crippled surveillance apparatus, taking root in hot spots across the country, and in particular, New York City.
The mismanagement cost lives. With adequate testing from the beginning, says Dr. Howard Forman, a Yale professor of public-health policy, “we would have been able to stop the spread of this virus in its tracks the way that many other nations have.” Instead, says Sen. Murray, the administration’s response was “wait until it’s too late, and then try and contain one of the most aggressive viruses that we’ve ever seen.”
New York Fed Announces Start of Certain Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Purchases on May 12
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today announced that the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) will begin purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on May 12.
As specified in the term sheet, the SMCCF may purchase U.S.-listed ETFs whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. corporate bonds. The preponderance of ETF holdings will be of ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds, and the remainder will be in ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. high-yield corporate bonds. The SMCCF will consider several additional factors in determining which ETFs will be eligible for purchase. Those considerations include: the composition of investment-grade and non-investment-grade rated debt, the management style, the amount of debt held in depository institutions, the average tenor of underlying debt, the total assets under management, the average daily trading volume, and leverage, if any.
To expedite implementation, the SMCCF will begin by transacting with Primary Dealers that meet the Eligible Seller criteria and that have completed the Seller Certification Materials. Additional counterparties will be included as Eligible Sellers under the SMCCF, subject to adequate due diligence and compliance work.
The Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) is expected to become operational and the SMCCF is expected to begin purchasing eligible corporate bonds in the near future, as detailed previously. More information on SMCCF and PMCCF eligible corporate bond purchases is forthcoming, including specific start dates, issuer certification requirements and more detailed instructions, more details on pricing, among other operational details.
The Department of the Treasury has made $37.5 billion of the $75 billion equity investment it will make in the special purpose vehicle established by the Federal Reserve for SMCCF and PMCCF.
New York Fed Releases Frequently Asked Questions on the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) – New York Federal Reserve
[editor’s note: click on link above to read all the questions and answers]
Why is the Federal Reserve establishing the TALF?
Securitization markets fund a substantial share of credit to consumers and businesses. Recently, however, the securitization markets, along with all other financial markets, have been under considerable strain as a result of the disruptions associated with the coronavirus. This disruption has resulted in a significant increase in the interest rate spreads on these securities and a near-halt of new issuance in many sectors. The continued disruption of these markets could further squeeze the liquidity and balance sheet capacity of financial institutions, thereby significantly limiting the flow of credit to households and businesses of all sizes and amplifying the current economic disruption.
Coronavirus Statistics For 12 May 2020
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 18,117 | 1,350,000 | 70,644 | 4,140,000 | 25.6% | 32.6% |
| Deaths | 1,156 | 80,684 | 3,393 | 285,760 | 34.1% | 28.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.91 | 26.31 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2020 CPI: Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Slows to 0.3%
Why Financial Trouble Brews On The “Home” Front
High-Level Job Searchers Grind To A Halt
April 2020 Small Business Optimism Continues Two Month Slide
Why Jobless Claims Are Still So High
Something’s Wrong On Wall Street
We Call Workers ‘Essential’ But Is That Just Referring To The Work, Not The People?
A Hard-Eyed Look At Mass Transit
Has The Stock Market Moved Past The COVID-19 Crisis?
Prepare For Defective Herd Immunity: Its Coming
Bull Market Vs. Depression Economy
New Study Shows Staggering Effect Of Coronavirus Pandemic On America’s Mental Health
The Disempowerment Of Markets In The Eurozone
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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