Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. pandemic deaths have increased today. Following is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which suggest that obese people are more likely to become severely ill after contracting COVID-19.
In editing coronavirus news, much of what we read today about this pandemic will turn out to be partially or completely wrong when we look back 20 years from now – even the “facts” presented by experts. I do not include news which I consider is pure opinion or simply a rant. But I believe knowing something from an informed source that COULD be true is better than never being exposed to that thought. I have no problem with including diametrically opposed news.
I am not an expert on COVID-19, but I am an expert on fact-checking and scientific analysis. My goal is to have readers survive this pandemic, and not push a particular gameplan or view. Please stay safe and increase your knowledge base on this virus. But beware:
A study finds that those who learn about the new coronavirus from conservative outlets, social media, and online news aggregators are more likely to be misinformed.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Eurozone PMI at all-time low as economy locks down to fight COVID-19 – IHS Markit
- Eurozone PMI slides to all-time low of 13.6 in April
- Business activity, order books and employment all drop at record rates
- Record falls in output seen in all four largest states, with services under greatest pressure
- Pessimism eases marginally to raise hopes April represents a low point for output
The extent of the euro area economic collapse from the COVID-19 outbreak was laid bare by PMI survey data showing record downturns in every country surveyed in April, with output falling at unprecedented rates in manufacturing and services in all cases. Employment also fell at a record rate across the region as firms scaled back capacity in line with gloomy prospects.
The PMI collapse comes on the heels of official data showing that euro area GDP fell by an estimated 3.8% in the three months to March, its steepest decline since data were first compiled in 1995.
Although pessimism eased slightly in April to fuel hopes that orders and output indices may rise in coming months, the sheer scale of the declines in output and employment seen in March and April, and the limited scope for opening up the economy again due to the fear of further virus outbreaks, means it is likely to be a long haul before the economy fully rebounds from the pandemic, with pre-virus levels not recovered for several years.
Covid-19 Reignites a Contentious Debate Over Bats and Disease – Undark
Scientists have suspected for years that bats have struck a strange armistice with some of nature’s deadliest viral killers. Bats that carry infamous pathogens like Ebola, Hendra, Marburg, and Nipah rarely if ever fall ill, or at least show obvious symptoms. Even bats that contract rabies, which is almost always lethal to animals when left untreated, can sometimes emerge from the infection unscathed.
This remarkable resilience has drawn the attention of scientists eager to unravel the secrets of bats’ evolutionary detente with disease – a relationship that could someday yield novel therapies to shore up our own antiviral defenses. But it’s also made bats the targets of loathing among those who consider them little more than stealthy pests teeming with zoonoses, or diseases that can pass from animals to humans. Since the Covid-19 pandemic began, bats have been slandered on social media, targeted for capture or cullings, and even reportedly burned out of roosts – actions that imperil a group of animals vital to ecosystems around the world, Banerjee and other researchers say.
Genetic analysis shows coronavirus started circulating globally late last year – CGTN
A new genetic analysis based on samples from more than 7,600 patients around the world shows the COVID-19 has been circulating globally since late last year, and spread extremely quickly after the first infection.
Researchers looked at samples taken at different times and from different places, and said viral sequences they pulled from a giant global database that scientists around the world are using to share data indicates the virus was infecting people in Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February.
“Our results are in line with previous estimates and point to all sequences sharing a common ancestor towards the end of 2019, supporting this as the period when SARS-CoV-2 jumped into its human host,” genetics researcher Francois Balloux of the University College London Genetics Institute and his colleagues wrote in their report, published in the journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution.
“We are really, really, really confident that the host jump happened late last year,” Balloux said in an interview with CNN.
Many different studies have shown that the new coronavirus, also called SARS-CoV-2 by scientists, originated in a bat but had to have infected another animal before it jumped into humans.
Balloux pointed out that viral samples taken from all corners of the globe show the virus “has been introduced and introduced and introduced in almost all countries” late last year. And the idea to find a Patient Zero is pointless because “there are so many patient zeros,” and it’s impossible to find the first patient in any country.
Latest evidence on obesity and COVID-19 – Medical News Today
Early data seems to suggest that people with obesity are more likely to become severely ill due to COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
An increasing number of reports have linked obesity to coronavirus mortality, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now list severe obesity as a risk factor for severe COVID-19. The CDC define severe obesity as having a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or above.
However, it is currently unclear exactly why obesity is associated with a more dangerous form of the disease.
Fauci: No scientific evidence the coronavirus was made in a Chinese lab – National Geographic
“If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what’s out there now, [the scientific evidence] is very, very strongly leaning toward this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated … Everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species,” Fauci says. Based on the scientific evidence, he also doesn’t entertain an alternate theory-that someone found the coronavirus in the wild, brought it to a lab, and then it accidentally escaped.
Fauci is most concerned that the United States will be put to the test this fall and winter by a second wave of COVID-19 if the country does not blunt the infection rate by the summer.
“Shame on us if we don’t have enough tests by the time this so-called return might occur in the fall and winter,” he says, advising that the U.S. needs to make sure we not only have an adequate supply of tests available before a second wave hits, but also a system for getting those tests to the people who most need them.
Plandemic Documentary: The Hidden Agenda Behind Covid-19 – YouTube
[editor’s note: YouTube removed this video just after this post was published. This has happened many times over the last few weeks. This video makes accusations against Dr. Fauci.]
Nearly 1 in 5 young children in the United States are not getting enough to eat, new research found. – New York Times
Research released Wednesday shows a rise in food insecurity without modern precedent. Nearly a fifth of young children are not getting enough to eat, according to surveys of their mothers by the Brookings Institution. The rate is three times higher than in 2008, at the worst of the Great Recession, reports Jason DeParle.
When food runs short, parents often skip meals to keep children fed. But a survey of households with children 12 and under by Lauren Bauer, a Brookings fellow in economic studies, found that 17.4 percent reported the children themselves were not eating enough, compared with 5.7 percent during the Great Recession.
Trump pivots hard away from fight against unvanquished pandemic – CNN
But on Wednesday, reflecting the often erratic nature of his coronavirus leadership and sensitivity to press criticism, Trump appeared to contradict himself, writing on Twitter that the task force would continue “indefinitely” and that people could be added or subtracted from it.
Officials said Tuesday that advisers like Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx would remain on board. But closing the task force would make experts whose science-based arguments have sometimes contradicted Trump’s overly optimistic projections far less visible.
Disbanding the task force would also raise questions about the administration’s priorities in effectively declaring victory over a pandemic that appears likely to rage for many more months.
Europe is beginning to ease lockdown measures – BBC
In Europe, the UK is now reporting the highest number of coronavirus deaths at 29,427.
This is just ahead of Italy on 29,315, which was the first country in the region to see a rapid increase in deaths in early March.Spain and France have also recorded more than 25,000 deaths.
However, all four countries appear to have passed through the peak of the virus and the number of reported cases and deaths is falling.
Germany and Belgium have also recorded a relatively high number of deaths and are now seeing those numbers decrease, though as Belgium has a far smaller population than Germany the number of deaths per capita there has been higher.
Jobs of less educated, women, and the young most vulnerable to COVID-19 layoffs – The Conference Board
Job losses due to COVID-19 and social distancing will disproportionately impact certain occupations and demographic groups of workers. Affected occupations require less education and pay less than other jobs. Workers in these positions are more likely to work part-time. A larger percentage of workers in these jobs are young, female, from minority groups, or a combination of characteristics, such as Hispanic women, than in other jobs. Since social distancing in some form is likely to continue, these demographic groups will bear the brunt of the COVID-19 recession.
Statement Regarding Treatment of 20-year Nominal Coupon Bond in SOMA Operations – Federal Reserve
The U.S. Treasury has announced that it intends to begin issuing a 20-year nominal coupon bond (20-year bond), with the first auction occurring on May 20, 2020. Consistent with past practices, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is prepared to include the 20-year bond in System Open Market Account (SOMA) operations and treat it in a similar manner to other nominal coupon Treasury securities, effective immediately. These SOMA operations include the Desk’s rollovers of maturing Treasury security holdings at auction, purchases of Treasury securities, securities lending program, repurchase agreements, and reverse repurchase agreements.
Coronavirus Statistics For 06 May 2020
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 23,841 | 1,200,000 | 79,635 | 3,620,000 | 29.9% | 33.1% |
| Deaths | 2,144 | 71,078 | 5,903 | 256,880 | 36.3% | 27.7% |
| Mortality Rate | 9.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.70 | 22.01 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
The Stay-at-Home Labor Market: Google Searches, Unemployment Insurance, And Public Health Orders
April 2020 ADP Employment Declines 20,236,000
Federal Reserve Survey Shows Impact Of COVID-19 On Communities Nationwide
Infographic Of The Day: The Future Of Supply Chain Automation
Values In The Age Of Coronavirus: How A Disease Changed What It Means To Live A Virtuous Life
Irony: Healthcare Sector Hurts The Economy
Crushing The States And Saving The Banks
Why The 1930s Continues To Be A Bear Track To Follow
World Leaders Pledge $8 Billion To Fund COVID-19 Response
Coronavirus Medical Costs Could Soar Into Hundreds Of Billions As More Americans Become Infected
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- Is social distancing at 6 feet correct? Some are saying 4 meters (13 feet). And what is the correct social distance if one rides a bike?
- Will warm weather and higher humidity slow the coronavirus spread? Will September see another spike in cases? Next Winter may see more cases than seen previously.
- Should we decontaminate products (such as food) that are brought into the house?
- Does one develop immunity after recovering from coronavirus?
- Is COVID-19 mutating? How will this impact the ability to create immunization or even immunity?
- Are ventilators damaging patients – should oxygen be used instead?
- The U.S. outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan after the U.S. shut down its testing due to containment issues.
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic.
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