Written by Steven Hansen
Although the curves have flattened, they continue to remain elevated and actually worsened this week. Following is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines on coronavirus which include topics on how hospitals get paid more if patients are listed as COVID-19 and on ventilators.
Believe it or not, the number of new cases of coronavirus increased in the U.S. and the World for the week ending 03 May 2020 – so much for the “experts” telling us that lockdown and shelter-in-place for over one month would bend the curve.
There is so much volatility looking at daily data, stepping back, and looking at the data weekly likely gives a better picture. Further, the numbers seem to decline on Sundays, and then jump up going into the week.
Several selections today in the coronavirus news have been contributed by Roger Erickson, GEI author and Biology Entrepreneur.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Why does the virus hit some nations hard but deal a glancing blow to others? – New York Times
The coronavirus has touched almost every country on earth, but its impact has seemed capricious. Global metropolises like New York, Paris and London have been devastated, while teeming cities like Bangkok, Baghdad, New Delhi and Lagos have, so far, largely been spared.
The question of why the virus has overwhelmed some places and left others relatively untouched is a puzzle that has spawned numerous theories and speculations but no definitive answers. That knowledge could have profound implications for how countries respond to the virus, for determining who is at risk and for knowing when it’s safe to go out again.
Doctors in Saudi Arabia are studying whether genetic differences may help explain varying levels of severity in Covid-19 cases among Saudi Arabs, while scientists in Brazil are looking into the relationship between genetics and Covid-19 complications. Teams in multiple countries are studying if common hypertension medications might worsen the disease’s severity and whether a particular tuberculosis vaccine might do the opposite.
Coronavirus pandemic: Tracking the global outbreak – BBC
Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators – USA Today
We rate the claim that hospitals get paid more if patients are listed as COVID-19 and on ventilators as TRUE.
Hospitals and doctors do get paid more for Medicare patients diagnosed with COVID-19 or if it’s considered presumed they have COVID-19 absent a laboratory-confirmed test, and three times more if the patients are placed on a ventilator to cover the cost of care and loss of business resulting from a shift in focus to treat COVID-19 cases.
This higher allocation of funds has been made possible under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act through a Medicare 20% add-on to its regular payment for COVID-19 patients, as verified by USA TODAY through the American Hospital Association Special Bulletin on the topic.
Southwest Airlines’ planes are “virtually empty,” said CEO Gary Kelly. Still he believes the situation will improve in the coming months.
“May will be better than April. I don’t think June will be a good month, but hopefully, it will be a bit better than May,” Kelly told CBS’s “Face of the Nation.”
“There’s bookings in place,” he said, “but those could easily be canceled. It’s really one day at a time.” Southwest Airlines has already received $3.2 billion in federal aid, and Kelly said he’s applied for another government loan but, “we don’t know if we’ll take it.”
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Swiss drugmaker Roche said on Sunday it expects to be able to produce “significantly more” than 100 million of its new antibody tests monthly by the end of 2020, doubling its current production.
Roche earlier on Sunday received an emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approving its test, which relies on taking intravenous blood samples to identify whether someone has previously been infected with the coronavirus and whether they have the antibodies to defend against it.
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Gilead Sciences‘ remdesivir drug will be in the hands of coronavirus patients as early as this week, the biotechnology company’s CEO said Sunday.
“We’ve donated the entire supply that we have within our supply chain and we did that because we acknowledge and recognize the human suffering, the human need here, and want to make sure nothing gets in the way of this getting to patients,” Gilead Science CEO Daniel O’Day told CBS’s “Face of the Nation.”
Covid-19 antibody testing: Tougher than true/false – Knowable Magazine
Assuming that antibodies are generated, what will the immune system do upon re-exposure to SARS-CoV-2? For now, it’s a mystery. The hope is that those antibodies will launch an immune attack on the virus before it gets a foothold, so a person would get a lower degree of illness, or none at all.
But there’s another, unpleasant possibility, Wang says. If the antibodies stick to the virus but don’t neutralize it, then they can create a phenomenon known as antibody-dependent enhancement. Because cells have surface receptors for antibodies, the binding can actually create a second entryway for the virus to infect cells, making the infection worse.
Coronavirus: US missed chances to stop spread of Covid-19, senior health official admits – Independent
The US missed chances to slow the spread of coronavirus, a senior health official has admitted.
In an article, Dr Anne Schuchat of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said America “didn’t recognise” the scale of the crisis when it was first unfolding.
Limited testing and a sluggish response in understanding how the virus was arriving into the US from Europe contributed to a rise in Covid-19 cases from late February, Dr Schuchat said.
China Blocks the WHO From Participating in Investigations of COVID-19’s Origins – Daily Beast
China has refused repeated requests by the World Health Organization to take part in investigations into the origins of COVID-19, the WHO representative in China has told Sky News. “We know that some national investigation is happening, but at this stage we have not been invited to join,” Gauden Galea said, adding that this was despite having made requests to participate to the health commission and other authorities in China. “The origins of virus are very important, the animal-human interface is extremely important and needs to be studied. The priority is we need to know as much as possible to prevent re-occurrence,” Galea said. Asked by Sky News whether there was a good reason for China not to include the WHO in its investigations, Galea replied: “From our point of view, no.”
NEW MEXICO CITY BEING SEALED OFF TO STOP COVID-19 SPREAD – Live Science
The governor of New Mexico on Friday (May 1) invoked the Riot Control Act in order to lock down the city of Gallup, where COVID-19 shows no signs of abating, CBS News reported. “Effective at 12 p.m., May 1, all roads into Gallup are closed. Businesses in the city of Gallup will close from 5 p.m. through 8 a.m. Vehicles may only have a maximum of two individuals. Residents of the city should remain at home except for emergency outings and those essential for health, safety and welfare,” the office of Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said in a statement. Lujan Grisham added that she understands this lockdown is a drastic measure, saying it was necessary because “the COVID-19 outbreak in the city of Gallup is a crisis of the highest order. Immediate action is necessary.” To date, Gallup has confirmed 1,064 COVID-19 cases and 20 related deaths, in a city of nearly 22,000, according to the state health department. The entire state has confirmed 3,513 cases and 159 related deaths to date.
An Oxford researcher working on a vaccine says a new shot will likely be needed each year. – New York Times
People will likely need annual vaccinations to protect against the coronavirus, just as is recommended for the flu, an Oxford University professor working on a vaccine predicted on Sunday.
Sir John Bell, the Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, said on a U.S. Sunday news show, NBC’s “Meet the Press,” that while the coronavirus “doesn’t mutate at the pace of flu as far as we can see, it’s also quite a tricky virus in terms of generating longstanding immune responses to it.”
Coronavirus Statistics For 03 May 2020
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 29,288 | 1,130,000 | 81,065 | 3,310,000 | 36.1% | 33.3% |
| Deaths | 1,317 | 66,385 | 4,881 | 243,312 | 27.0% | 27.3% |
| Mortality Rate | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.92 | 19.79 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
COVID-19 Pandemic And The Caribbean: Navigating Uncharted Waters
Reopening The U.S.: Gauging The Trend Of COVID-19 Transmissions
COVID-19 Investing: How To Beat The Herd
Coronavirus Economic News 02May 2020
Coronavirus Disease News 03May 2020
States Where Religion Is Exempt From Social Distancing
Three Ways People Are Reacting To Coronavirus: ‘Accepting’, ‘Suffering’ And ‘Resisting’
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- Is social distancing at 6 feet correct? Some are saying 4 meters (13 feet). And what is the correct social distance if one rides a bike?
- Will warm weather and higher humidity slow the coronavirus spread? Will September see another spike in cases? Next Winter may see more cases than seen previously.
- Should we decontaminate products (such as food) that are brought into the house?
- Does one develop immunity after recovering from coronavirus?
- Is COVID-19 mutating? How will this impact the ability to create immunization or even immunity?
- Are ventilators damaging patients – should oxygen be used instead?
- The U.S. outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan after the U.S. shut down its testing due to containment issues.
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic.
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