Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 3000 K to 7950 K (consensus 5,000 K), and the Department of Labor reported 6,606,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 2,666,750 (reported last week as 2,612,000) to 4,265,500 .
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
According to the BLS:
The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and its impact is also reflected in the increasing levels of insured unemployment.
The pandemic has so far caused a loss of 16,780,000 jobs.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 1912 % higher than one year ago (versus the 1127 % higher last week) – and is higher than any historical value for this data set.
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Before 4 weeks ago, claim levels had been at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,606,000, a decrease of 261,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 219,000 from 6,648,000 to 6,867,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,265,500, an increase of 1,598,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 54,750 from 2,612,000 to 2,666,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.1 percent for the week ending March 28, an increase of 3.0 percentage points from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 28 was 7,455,000, an increase of 4,396,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 6,635,000 in May of 2009. The previous week’s level was revised up 30,000 from 3,029,000 to 3,059,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,500,000, an increase of 1,439,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 7,500 from 2,053,500 to 2,061,000.
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