Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined significantly, moved deeper into contraction, and is now at a level not seen since April 2009.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline likely is more immediate and not lagging off six months as one would expect. Most likely, the U.S. is already in a recession.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Worse Since Great Recession
Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click “Full Site.”
__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) plunged to 113.1 while the growth rate plummeted to -15.5%. Both readings are their lowest since the Great Recession.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The February economy’s rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth marginally improved.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February economy’s rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth improved.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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