Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 299 K to 2500 K (consensus 787,500), and the Department of Labor reported 3,283,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 232,500 (reported last week as 232,250) to998,250. The rolling averages generally had been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014 – now thanks to the coronavirus, it has grown to the highest level in history.
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
According to the BLS:
During the week ending March 21, the increase in initial claims are due to the impacts of the COVID-19 virus. Nearly every state providing comments cited the COVID-19 virus impacts. States continued to cite services industries broadly, particularly accommodation and food services. Additional industries heavily cited for the increases included the health care and social assistance, arts, entertainment and recreation, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing industries.
This increase due to coronavirus ends 256 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. Wait until next week when new initial claims should be as bad.
The most initial claims came from Pennsylvania – the following list is the State Claims – Not Seasonally Adjusted:
| STATE | Initial Claims |
| US total | 2898450 |
| Pennsylvania | 378908 |
| Ohio | 187784 |
| California | 186809 |
| Texas | 155657 |
| New Jersey | 155454 |
| Massachusetts | 147995 |
| Washington | 133478 |
| Michigan | 129298 |
| Minnesota | 116438 |
| Illinois | 114663 |
| North Carolina | 93587 |
| Nevada | 93036 |
| New York | 80334 |
| Florida | 74021 |
| Louisiana | 72620 |
| Indiana | 61635 |
| Wisconsin | 50957 |
| Kentucky | 48847 |
| Virginia | 46885 |
| Iowa | 41890 |
| Maryland | 41882 |
| Missouri | 40508 |
| Tennessee | 39096 |
| Rhode Island | 35436 |
| South Carolina | 31064 |
| Arizona | 29268 |
| Connecticut | 25098 |
| Kansas | 23687 |
| Oregon | 22824 |
| New Hampshire | 21878 |
| Maine | 21197 |
| Colorado | 19429 |
| Oklahoma | 17720 |
| New Mexico | 17187 |
| Nebraska | 15668 |
| Montana | 14704 |
| District of Columbia | 13473 |
| Idaho | 13314 |
| Georgia | 11746 |
| Delaware | 10720 |
| Alabama | 9490 |
| Arkansas | 8958 |
| Hawaii | 8904 |
| Alaska | 8225 |
| Mississippi | 6723 |
| North Dakota | 5968 |
| Vermont | 3667 |
| West Virginia | 3435 |
| Wyoming | 2339 |
| South Dakota | 1703 |
| Puerto Rico | 1471 |
| Utah | 1314 |
| Virgin Island | 58 |
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 355 % higher than one year ago (versus the 5.3 % higher last week) – and is higher than any historical value for this data set.
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Claim levels are at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 695,000 in October of 1982. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 281,000 to 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 998,250, an increase of 765,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 232,250 to 232,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending March 14, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 14 was 1,803,000, an increase of 101,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since April 14, 2018 when it was 1,824,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 1,000 from 1,701,000 to 1,702,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,731,000, an increase of 27,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 1,703,250 to 1,703,500.
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