April 2019 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Growth Slowed

Of the three regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

The market expectations from Econoday was +10 to +13 (consensus +12). The actual survey value was +3 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Fifth District manufacturing activity moderated in April, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 10 in March to 3 in April, weighed down by slightly negative readings in the indexes for both shipments and new orders but buoyed by a positive reading for the third component index, employment. Firms were optimistic, expecting conditions to improve in the next six months.

Survey results suggested continued positive growth in both employment and wages, although these indexes dropped slightly in April. However, firms reported a decline in the average workweek as they continued to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills. Firms expected this difficulty to continue in the coming months.

The growth rate of prices paid by respondents rose in April, while that of prices received fell, widening the gap between the two, as growth in prices paid continued to outpace growth in prices received. Firms expected growth of both prices paid and prices received to decrease in the near future.

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic