Written by Steven Hansen
Headline data for truck shipments similar trends – however Cass believes the growth rate contracted year-over-year whilst the ATA shows December’s year-over-year growth rate is modestly positive.
Analyst Opinion of Truck Transport
I tend to put heavier weight on the CASS index which this month again agreed with the ATA that the growth rate significantly declined year-over-year.
Econintersect tries to validate truck data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry employment levels rate of growth slightly improved in December – which is inconsistent with the trucking data. Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted (sometimes significantly).
ATA Trucking
American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 4.3 % in December after declining a revised -1.3 % in November.
Said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
The good news is that 2018 was a banner year for truck tonnage, witnessing the largest annual increase we’ve seen in two decades. With that said, there is evidence that the industry and economy is moderating as tonnage fell a combined total of 5.6% in October and November after hitting an all-time high in October.
ATA Truck tonnage this month (not updated by ATA for October)
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Compared with December 2017, the SA index increased 1.4%, the smallest year-over-year increase in 2018. In November, the index was 5.8% above the same month in 2017.
source: ATA
CASS FREIGHT INDEX REPORT
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November was another month of high volatility and a sense of growing uncertainty in both the U.S. and global financial markets. Despite all of the ‘hand-wringing’ on Wall Street, the Transportation economy continues to signal economic expansion. The hard data of physical goods flow, which is uninfluenced by human emotion, confirms that people are still making things, shipping things, and buying / consuming things. Although not at the scorching pace attained earlier this year, expansion is still taking place at an above average pace.
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Source: http://www.cassinfo.com/Transportation-Expense-Management/Supply-Chain-Analysis/Cass-Freight-Index.aspx
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