Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward marginally improved but remains in contraction.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 145.1 as WLI growth ticked up to -6.2%.
On desktop click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate.
On mobile click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click the “Full Site” link to download the data.
The WLI is just one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below for information that we have made public:
– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan recent interview on “The Fed, Markets, Growth & Inflation” on Reuters
– read ECRI’s “Colliding With the Economic Cycle – Again“
– read ECRI’s “2018 Cycle Calls“
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:
Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth marginally declined.
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures further subsided in December.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.
z ecri_infl.PNG
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy’s rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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