The Chicago Business Barometer strongly improved after three consecutive months of weakening.
Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI
The Fed manufacturing surveys have been trending down – and the Chicago ISM strongly expanded.
Expections this month from Econoday were 58.0 to 59.4 (consensus 58.0) with the actual at 66.4. A number below 50 indicates contraction.
Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer clipped a run of three consecutive declines in emphatic style in November, boosted primarily by resurgent orders – stronger than typically seen at this time of year and enough to push the Barometer to its best level since December. However, many firms reported seeing the effects of higher China tariffs on their invoices for the first time, and voiced concern that business could be stifled going forward.
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer surged to an 11-month high of 66.4 in November, up 8.0 points from October’s 58.4. Business activity recorded its most impressive performance so far this year in November, ending a three-month run of declines. Although broad-based, with increases across all five of the Barometer’s subcomponents, resurgent orders, solid output and higher unfinished orders were the month’s key drivers. This month’s result means the Barometer has signalled expansion, sitting above the neutral 50-mark, for 33 consecutive months. Moreover, the headline index has registered above-60 for all but three of the past 15 months. Driving the November rise were soaring orders and higher output. After easing in each of the last two months, November saw New Orders jump to the highest level since May 2014. Production, meanwhile, rose for a second straight month, settling at a three month high. Some firms said that while they were seeing increased orders in November, there were also demands from customers for earlier delivery on existing orders.
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The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.
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source and read the full report: Chicago PMI
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