Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Marginally Declines In November 2018

Of the five regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

The market expectations from Econoday was 10 to 20 (consensus 15). The actual survey value was +14 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew moderately in November, according to results of the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index slipped from 15 in October to 14 in November, pulled down by drops in the indexes for new orders and employment, while the other component, the index for shipments, rose. However, all three continued to reflect expansion, as did most other measures of manufacturing activity. Firms were optimistic, expecting growth to continue in the next six months.

While survey results suggested growth in employment and wages among manufacturing firms in November, the struggle to find workers with the required skills persisted. The skills index dropped to a record low of −26, and respondents expected this difficulty to persist in the near future.

Both prices paid and prices received grew in November, although at a slower rate than in October. Prices paid continued to grow faster than prices received, but respondents expected growth in prices received to accelerate in the coming months.

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic