October 2018 ISM and Markit Services Indices Remain In Growth

Written by Steven Hansen

The ISM non-manufacturing (aka ISM Services) index continued its growth cycle but declined. Markit PMI Services Index improved and remains in growth territory.

From Econoday:

From Markit:

Business activity growth regains momentum in October

• Output expansion accelerates
• Input price inflation fastest since September 2013
• Rate of job creation dips to nine-month low
• The U.S. service sector reported a strong expansion in business activity in October. The rate of growth rebounded from September’s weatherrelated weakness, but was also buoyed by a sharp rise in new business. Capacity was often reported to have come under some strain, however, and difficulties finding suitable candidates were partly to blame for the rate of job creation easing to a ninemonth low. Meanwhile, price pressures intensified, with rates of both input cost and output charge inflation accelerating.
• The seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit U.S. Services Business Activity Index registered 54.8 in October, up from September’s recent low of 53.5 and broadly in line with the earlier ‘flash’ reading of 54.7. Output growth regained momentum to run just below the average for 2018 so far. Service providers commonly linked the rise in business activity to increased new business and a pick up in demand after inclement weather in September.

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From the ISM Services report:

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 105th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 60.3 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the September reading of 61.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 62.5 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the September reading of 65.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 111th consecutive month, at a slower rate in October. The New Orders Index registered 61.5 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the reading of 61.6 percent in September. The Employment Index decreased 2.7 percentage points in October to 59.7 percent from the September reading of 62.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 2.5 percentage points from the September reading of 64.2 percent to 61.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in October for the 32nd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector has again reflected strong growth despite a slight cooling off after a record month in September. There are continued concerns about capacity, logistics and tariffs. The respondents are positive about current business conditions and the economy.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 17 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; and Other Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in October is Educational Services.

ISM Services Index

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There are two sub-indexes in the ISM Services which have good correlations to the economy – the Business Activity Index and the New Orders Index – both have good track records in spotting an incipient recession – both remaining in territories associated with expansion.

This index and its associated sub-indices are fairly volatile.

• The Business Activity sub-index declined 2.7 points and now is at 62.5
• The New Orders Index declined 0.1 and is currently at 61.5

The complete ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing survey table is below.

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Econintersect does give serious consideration to this survey as the service sector accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment. However, this an opinion survey and is not hard data.

Caveats on the use of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index:

This is a survey, a quantification of opinion. However, as pointed out above, certain elements of this survey have good to excellent correlation to the economy for as long as it has been in existence. Surveys lead hard data by weeks to months, and can provide early insight into changing conditions.

The main ISM non-manufacturing index (NMI) is so new that it does not have enough data history to have reliable certainty about how it correlates to the economy. Again, two sub-indices (business activity and new orders) do have good correlation for the limited history available.

No survey is accurate in projecting employment – and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index is no exception. Although there are some general correlation in trends if you stand far enough back from this graph, month-to-month movements have not correlated well with the BLS Service Sector Employment data.

From Econoday:

The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.

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