Week 30 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded 2.2 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors slowed from 6.2 % to 5.8 %.
Intermodal transport growth remains strong year-over-year.
The following graph compares the four week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
Rail’s growth rate is improving (and is better than GDP growth) .
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago | Current quantities accelerating or decelerating | Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago | |
| 4 week rolling average | +3.8 % | decelerating | decelerating |
| 13 week rolling average | +3.3 % | accelerating | decelerating |
| 52 week rolling average | +2.4 % | accelerating | unchanged |
A summary of the data from the AAR:
U.S. railroads originated 1,048,293 carloads in July 2018, up 3.5 percent, or 35,208 carloads, from July 2017. U.S. railroads also originated 1,108,142 containers and trailers in July 2018, up 6.9 percent, or 71,782 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in July 2018 were 2,156,435, up 5.2 percent, or 106,990 carloads and intermodal units from July 2017.
In July 2018, 15 of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with July 2017. These included: grain, up 12,066 carloads or 14.7 percent; petroleum & petroleum products, up 9,661 carloads or 27 percent; and chemicals, up 5,649 carloads or 4.6 percent. Commodities that saw declines in July 2018 from July 2017 included: coal, down 9,313 carloads or 2.7 percent; nonmetallic minerals, down 2,917 carloads or 15.6 percent; and metallic ores, down 592 carloads or 2.3 percent.
“Rail traffic continues to reflect the strength of the U.S. economy across all major industry sectors, with 15 of the 20 commodity categories we track having higher carloads in July 2018 than in July 2017” said AAR Senior Vice President of Policy and Economics John T. Gray. “July saw especially strong gains in commodities related to the energy sector — and also in categories tied to consumer spending, including automotive and intermodal traffic. Still of concern, though, is the potential negative impacts that could result from the ongoing discussions around trade.”
Excluding coal, carloads were up 44,521 carloads, or 6.7 percent, in July 2018 from July 2017. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were up 32,455 carloads, or 5.5 percent.
Total U.S. carload traffic for the first seven months of 2018 was 7,795,707 carloads, up 1.6 percent, or 122,377 carloads, from the same period last year; and 8,261,699 intermodal units, up 6.1 percent, or 477,415 containers and trailers, from last year.
Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 30 weeks of 2018 was 16,057,406 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.9 percent compared to last year.
Week Ending July 28, 2018
Total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 559,154 carloads and intermodal units, up 3 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending July 28 were 271,234 carloads, up 1.2 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 287,920 containers and trailers, up 4.8 percent compared to 2017.
Seven of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included grain, up 3,524 carloads, to 24,247; petroleum and petroleum products, up 3,235 carloads, to 12,142; and chemicals, up 1,281 carloads, to 32,802. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2017 were coal, down 4,564 carloads, to 87,761; nonmetallic minerals, down 2,651 carloads, to 35,935; and miscellaneous carloads, down 804 carloads, to 9,587.
The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | +1.2 % | +4.8 % | +3.0 % |
| Ignoring coal and grain | +2.2 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | +1.6 % | +6.1 % | +3.9 % |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
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For the week ended July 28, 2018
- Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 14.9 million short tons (mmst)
- This production estimate is 2% higher than last week’s estimate and 2.7% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2017
- East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.9 mmst
- West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 9.1 mmst
- U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 428 mmst, 2.9% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2017
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![[click on graph below to enlarge]](/images/z%20rail1.png?v=36){kind=link}