20 July 2018: ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Index Declined Insignificantly

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion.

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Decreases

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 147.8, while the WLI growth rate slowed further to 0.8%, a 43-week low.

For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:

– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan in latest interview with CNBC

– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan’s discussion with BNN Bloomberg

For a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The June index value (issued in July) shows the rate of economic growth marginally slowed.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures again increased in June.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June economy’s rate of growth (released in July) showed the rate of growth significantly slowed.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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