Week 28 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded 5.8 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors improved from 6.0 % to 6.2 %.
Intermodal transport growth remains strong year-over-year.
The following graph compares the four week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
Rail’s growth rate is improving (and is better than GDP growth) .
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago | Current quantities accelerating or decelerating | Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago | |
| 4 week rolling average | +4.2 % | decelerating | accelerating |
| 13 week rolling average | +3.6 % | accelerating | decelerating |
| 52 week rolling average | +2.4 % | accelerating | unchanged |
A summary of the data from the AAR:
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 553,024 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.9 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending July 21 were 265,338 carloads, up 3.8 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 287,686 containers and trailers, up 5.9 percent compared to 2017.
Eight of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included grain, up 3,359 carloads, to 23,767; petroleum and petroleum products, up 2,009 carloads, to 11,102; and chemicals, up 1,785 carloads, to 32,043. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2017 were coal, down 2,469 carloads, to 85,865; and forest products, down 82 carloads, to 10,313.
For the first 29 weeks of 2018, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 7,524,473 carloads, up 1.6 percent from the same point last year; and 7,973,779 intermodal units, up 6.2 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 29 weeks of 2018 was 15,498,252 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.9 percent compared to last year.
The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | +3.8 % | +5.9 % | +4.9 % |
| Ignoring coal and grain | +5.8 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | +1.6 % | +6.2 % | +3.9 % |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
z rail1.png
For the week ended July 21, 2018
- Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 14.6 million short tons (mmst)
- This production estimate is 1.2% higher than last week’s estimate and 0.2% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2017
- East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.7 mmst
- West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 8.9 mmst
- U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 413.1 mmst, 2.9% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2017
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![[click on graph below to enlarge]](/images/z%20rail1.png?v=36){kind=link}