April 2018 Leading Index: Continued Growth Forecast

Written by Steven Hansen

This post is a review of the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index and all major leading indicators – and their trends are generally indicating moderate growth.

Philly Fed Leading Index

The Philly Fed Leading Index for the United States is continuously recalculated. Note that this index is not accurate in real time as it is subject to backward revision, Per the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the leading indexes for the 50 states for April 2018. The indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes (also released by the Bank). All 50 state coincident indexes are projected to increase over the next six months. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for its U.S. coincident index, which is projected to increase 1.6 percent over the next six months.

[click on graphic to enlarge]

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Index Values Over the Last 12 Months

This index has been noisy, and is about mid-range of the values seen since the end of the Great Recession.

Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB)

The CAB is an exception to the other leading indices as it leads the economy by two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months. The CAB is a composite index which comprises indicators drawn from a range of chemicals and sectors. Its relatively new index has been remarkably accurate when the data has been back-fitted, however – its real time performance is unknown – you can read more here. A value above zero is suggesting the economy is expanding. Note that the authors of this index want to be measured against industrial production. Econintersect‘s analysis of this index is [here].

z chemical_activity_barometer.png

ECRI WLI Index

ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index – the methodology used in created this index is not released but is widely believed to be monetary based. Econintersect‘s review of this index is [here].

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI)

Econintersect’s review of this index is [here]. The LEI has historically dropped below zero in its six-month moving average anywhere between 2 to 15 months before a recession.

Econintersect Economic Index

Unlike the other leading indices, Econintersect Leading Index (LEI) only forecasts one month in advance.

The EEI is a non-monetary based economic index which counts “things” that have shown to be indicative of direction of the Main Street economy at least 30 days in the future. Note that the Econintersect Economic Index is not constructed to mimic GDP (although there are correlations, but the turning points may be different), and tries to model the economic rate of change seen by business and Main Street. The vast majority of this index uses data not subject to backward revision.

Econintersect Economic Index (EEI) with a 3 Month Moving Average (red line)

Leading Indicators Conclusion: most are forecasting modest to average growth seen since the Great Recession – and none indicating a recession over the next six months.

• Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) growth rate is near average for times of economic expansion and its rate of growth insignificantly slowed.
• ECRI’s WLI is forecasting moderate growth in the business cycle six months from today – and the current trend growth rate is also insignificantly slowing.
• The Conference Board (LEI) 6 month rolling average suggesting an improving rate of growth over the next 6 months.
• Econintersect Economic Index is showing continued improvement and is showing a slightly better growth rate than has been seen since the Great Recession.
• The Philly Fed’s Leading Index continued backward revisions make this index worthless – however its growth trend currently is about average seen since the end of the Great Recession. It has generally been trending up for over a year.

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