The Chicago Business Barometer again declined but remains firmly in positive territory.
Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI
The results of this survey continue to correlate to district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys – and generallly aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey.
Expections this month from Bloomberg / Econoday were 60.0 to 65.0 (consensus 62.8) with the actual at 57.4. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,
The Chicago Business Barometer calendar quarter average had increased for six straight quarters until Q1 2018, with the halt largely due to the recent downward trajectory of orders and output. Troubles higher up in firms’ supply chains are restraining their productive capacity and higher prices are being passed on to consumers. On a more positive note, firms remain keen to expand their workforce.
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 4.5 points to 57.4 in March, down from 61.9 in February, hitting the lowest level in exactly one year. Firms’ operations continued to expand in March, but the pace of expansion moderated for a third straight month. Three of the five Barometer components receded on the month, with only Employment and Supplier Deliveries expanding. Compared to March last year, the Barometer was up 0.5%. On the quarter, the Barometer was down on Q4 2017 but Q1’s outturn was still the second-best calendar quarter result since Q2 2014 and the best first quarter outturn since 2011.
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The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.
source and read the full report: Chicago PMI
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