Week 48 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) expanded according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors remain in expansion and the rolling average growth rate improved marginally.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, this week it improved 2.7 % (meaning that the predictive economic elements improved year-over-year).
Intermodal transport did grew strongly year-over-year this week – which is the real economically positive element or rail transport.
The following graph compares the four week moving averages for the rail economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line): Rail’s intuitive sectors have been bouncing around the zero growth line for most of 2017.
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago | Current quantities accelerating or decelerating | Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago | |
| 4 week rolling average | +2.0 % | accelerating | accelerating |
| 13 week rolling average | +1.7 % | accelerating | accelerating |
| 52 week rolling average | +3.6 % | accelerating | accelerating |
A summary of the data from the AAR:
U.S. railroads originated 1,307,521 carloads in November 2017, down 0.9 percent, or 11,442 carloads, from November 2016. U.S. railroads also originated 1,369,160 containers and trailers in November 2017, up 3.8 percent, or 50,029 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in November 2017 were 2,676,681, up 1.5 percent, or 38,587 carloads and intermodal units from November 2016.
In November 2017, 12 of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with November 2016. These included: crushed stone, sand & gravel, up 16,402 carloads or 14.8 percent; metallic ores, up 5,810 carloads or 22.8 percent; and chemicals, up 5,465 carloads or 3.6 percent. Commodities that saw declines in November 2017 from November 2016 included: coal, down 22,560 carloads or 5 percent; grain, down 16,311 carloads or 12.7 percent; and petroleum & petroleum products, down 3,877 carloads or 7.2 percent.
“U.S. rail carload traffic in November, like in October, had both a glass-is-half-empty and a glass-is-half-full feel to it,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “It’s half empty because total carloads were down for the month, and railroads of course are concerned with their total level of business. However, the commodities that were the main reason for the decline in total carloads in November — coal, grain, and petroleum products — saw declines for reasons that don’t have much to do with the state of the economy. So, the half-full feel comes from the fact that many traffic categories that are more sensitive to the economy did relatively well in November, which is a good sign for the economy going forward. The fact that intermodal grew solidly in November and will almost certainly set a new annual record in 2017 is a good sign as well.”
Excluding coal, carloads were up 11,118 carloads, or 1.3 percent, in November 2017 from November 2016. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were up 27,429 carloads, or 3.7 percent.
Total U.S. carload traffic for the first 11 months of 2017 was 12,479,958 carloads, up 2.9 percent, or 356,660 carloads, from the same period last year; and 12,945,869 intermodal units, up 3.7 percent, or 467,141 containers and trailers, from last year.
Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 48 weeks of 2017 was 25,425,827 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.3 percent compared to last year.
Week Ending December 2, 2017
Total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 572,794 carloads and intermodal units, up 3.5 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending December 2 were 280,351 carloads, up 2.1 percent compared with the same week in 2016, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 292,443 containers and trailers, up 4.9 percent compared to 2016.
Seven of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2016. They included nonmetallic minerals, up 3,682 carloads, to 38,905; chemicals, up 1,328 carloads, to 34,689; and coal, up 903 carloads, to 90,747. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2016 were petroleum and petroleum products, down 592 carloads, to 10,917; motor vehicles and parts, down 509 carloads, to 18,622; and forest products, down 266 carloads, to 10,620.
Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week the EIA says coal production is 9.0 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2016.
The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | +2.1 % | +4.9 % | +3.5 % |
| Ignoring coal and grain | +2.7 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | +2.9 % | +3.7 % | +3.3 % |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
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For the week ended December 2, 2017
- Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 15.7 million short tons (mmst)
- This production estimate is 11.6% higher than last week’s estimate and 9% higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2016
- East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.9 mmst
- West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 9.8 mmst
- U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 724.5 mmst, 8.2% higher than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2016
Coal production from EIA.gov
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![[click on graph below to enlarge]](/images/z%20rail1.png?v=36){kind=link}