Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Significantly Improves In November 2017.

Of the five regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

Market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday was 11 to 16 (consensus 15). The actual survey value was 30 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Manufacturing firms reported robust growth in November, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index jumped from 12 to 30, the highest it has been since 1993. This rise was bolstered by strengthening conditions across all three components of the index. While indicators of current wages and finished goods fell in November, both maintained positive values, dropping from 24 to 21 and 14 to 9, respectively.

District manufacturing firms remained optimistic that growth will continue in the coming six months. But a smaller share of firms raised their expectations than had in October in all areas, except for wages and capital expenditures.

Manufacturing firms reported stronger price growth in November, as growth rates for both prices paid and prices received reached a three-month high. They expect prices to continue to grow in the next six months but at a slightly lower rate.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

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