Written by Steven Hansen
The Producer Price Index year-over-year inflation significantly grew from 1.9 % to 2.4 %.
Analyst Opinion of Producer Prices
The Producer Price Index surprisingly surged year-over-year. I would assume this is a Hurricane Harvey affect. Here is what the BLS said in part:
Three-quarters of the August increase in the final demand goods index can be traced to prices for gasoline, which jumped 9.5 percent. The indexes for jet fuel, industrial chemicals, potatoes, home heating oil, and light motor trucks also moved higher. Conversely, prices for meats fell 3.4 percent. The indexes for fresh vegetables (except potatoes) and for plastic resins and materials also declined.
Over half of the August increase in the index for final demand services can be attributed to prices for consumer loans (partial), which advanced 1.7 percent. The indexes for outpatient care (partial), machinery and equipment wholesaling, truck transportation of freight, and food retailing also moved higher. In contrast, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing fell 6.8 percent. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling, guestroom rental, and airline passenger services also declined.
The PPI represents inflation pressure (or lack thereof) that migrates into consumer price.
- The BLS reported that the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) finished goods prices (now called final demand prices) year-over-year inflation rate moderated to 1.9 %,.
- The market had been expecting (from Bloomberg):
| month over month change | Consensus Range | Consensus | Actual |
| PPI-Final Demand (PPI-FD) | 0.1 % to 0.4 % | +0.3 % | +0.2 % |
| PPI-FD less food & energy (core PPI) | 0.1 % to 0.3 % | +0.2 % | +0.1 % |
| PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services | 0.2 % to 0.3 % | +0.2 % | +0.2 % |
The producer price inflation breakdown:
| category | month-over-month change | year-over-year change |
| final demand goods | +0.5 % | |
| final demand services | +0.1 % | |
| total final demand | +0.2 % | +2.4 % |
| processed goods for intermediate demand | +0.4 % | +4.1 % |
| unprocessed goods for intermediate demand | -0.7 % | +6.8 % |
| services for intermediate demand | +0.2 % | +2.6 % |
z ppi1.png
In the following graph, one can see the relationship between the year-over-year change in intermediate goods index and finished goods index. When the crude goods growth falls under finish goods – it usually drags finished goods lower.
Percent Change Year-over-Year – Comparing PPI Finished Goods (blue line) to PPI Intermediate Goods (red line)
Econintersect has shown how pricing change moves from the PPI to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This YoY change implies that the CPI, should continue to come in around 2.0 % YoY.
Comparing Year-over-Year Change Between the PPI Finished Goods Index (blue line) and the CPI-U (red line)
The price moderation of the PPI began in September 2011 when the year-over-year inflation was 7.0%.
Caveats on the Use of Producer Price Index
Econintersect has performed several tests on this series and finds it fairly representative of price changes (inflation). However, the headline rate is an average – and for an individual good or commodity, this series provides many sub-indices for specific application.
A very good primer on the Producer Price Index nuances can be found here.
Because of the nuances in determining the month-over-month index values, the year-over-year or annual change in the PPI index is preferred for comparisons.
There is moderate correlation between crude goods and finished goods. Higher crude material prices push the finished goods prices up.
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
