28 July 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Unchanged

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their inflation gauge this week.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticks up to 144.4 from 144.1, and the growth rate was virtually unchanged at 2.8%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

– read ECRI’s “Phillips Curveball“.

– read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji’s op-ed on Bloomberg.

– watch Lakshman Achuthan’s interview on Reuters.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The June index value (issued in July) shows the rate of economic growth insignificantly declined.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips

U.S. inflationary pressures were down slightly in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 111.5 from 111.7 in June, according to data released
Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“The USFIG dipped in July, further distancing itself from last fall’s cyclical peak,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
“Thus, underlying inflation pressures are clearly easing.”

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June economy’s rate of growth (released in July) showed the rate of growth slowed.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic