Week 29 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors slowing continues.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, this week it contracted 4.3 % (meaning that the predicitive economic elements contracted year-over-year). Also consider total rail movements are below 2015 levels – even though they are above 2016 levels. This week the one year rolling averages continue in expansion for the eighth week after contraction beginning in late 2015.
The strength this week was intermodal – which is economically positive (and is contrary to the slowness of the economically intuitive carload counts).
The following graph compares the four week moving averages for the rail economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line): Rail’s intuitive sectors have been bouncing around the zero growth line for most of 2017 but have recently moved above the zero growth line – but this week it remained below the zero growth line for the third week..
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago | Current quantities accelerating or decelerating | Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago | |
| 4 week rolling average | +2.7 % | decelerating | decelerating |
| 13 week rolling average | +4.9 % | accelerating | decelerating |
| 52 week rolling average | +1.6 % | accelerating | accelerating |
A summary of the data from the AAR:
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 534,152 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.1 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending July 22 were 256,863 carloads, down 2 percent compared with the same week in 2016, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 277,289 containers and trailers, up 4.1 percent compared to 2016.
Three of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2016. They were coal, up 5.3 percent to 88,304 carloads; nonmetallic minerals, up 2.9 percent to 38,630 carloads; and forest products, up 1.9 percent to 10,388 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2016 included grain, down 15.8 percent to 20,316 carloads; miscellaneous carloads, down 15.2 percent to 9,258 carloads; and motor vehicles and parts, down 13.2 percent to 12,696 carloads.
For the first 29 weeks of 2017, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 7,448,686 carloads, up 5.7 percent from the same point last year; and 7,670,677 intermodal units, up 2.9 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 29 weeks of 2017 was 15,119,363 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 4.3 percent compared to last year.
Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week the EIA says coal production is 7.6 % higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2016.
The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | -2.0 % | +4.1 % | +1.1 % |
| Ignoring coal and grain | +4.3 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | +5.7 % | +2.9 % | +4.3 % |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
z rail1.png
For the week ended July 22, 2017
- Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 15.5 million short tons (mmst)
- This production estimate is 1.4% higher than last week’s estimate and 7.6% higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2016
- East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.8 mmst
- West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 9.7 mmst
- U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 433.5 mmst, 15.2% higher than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2016
Coal production from EIA.gov
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![[click on graph below to enlarge]](/images/z%20rail1.png?v=36){kind=link}