Written by Steven Hansen
Import and export price inflation continues although the year-over-year rate of increase continues to slow.
Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation
The elephant in this month’s decline are fuel / oil and agriculture commodities. If one ignores these commodities, the year-over-year inflation rate for imports and exports is higher.
Import Oil prices were down 2.1 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were down 1.5 %.
- with import prices down 0.2 % month-over-month, up 1.5 % year-over-year;
- and export prices down 0.2 % month-over-month, up 0.6 % year-over-year..
- the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg):
| Consensus Range | Consensus | Actual | |
| Import Prices – M/M change | -0.5 % to 0.1 % | -0.3 % | -0.2 % |
| Export Prices – M/M change | -0.2 % to 0.2 % | +0.0 % | -0.2 % |
There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.
Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.
Year-over-Year Change – Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)
There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession – early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.
According to the press release:
All Imports: Import prices declined 0.2 percent in June. For the second consecutive month the decline was driven by lower fuel prices. Despite the monthly decrease in June, the price index for U.S. imports rose 1.5 percent over the past 12 months. The last over-the-year decline in import prices was a 0.2-percent decrease for the 12-month period ended in October. easing fuel prices. The price index for U.S. imports rose 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in May. The last over-the-year decline in import prices was a 0.2-percent decrease in October 2016.
All Exports: Prices for U.S. exports fell for a second consecutive month in June, declining 0.2 percent. Falling prices for agricultural exports drove the decrease as nonagricultural export prices recorded no change. U.S. export prices increased over the past year, advancing 0.6 percent. The price index for U.S. exports has not recorded a 12-month decline since a 0.2-percent fall in November.
How moderate the price “increases” have been over the past year is obvious from the graphic below.
Month-over-Month Change – Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)
The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).
Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)
Export / Import prices are the first inflation numbers reported each month.
Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index
Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.
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