31 March 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Degradation Still Continues

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Edged Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 145.2 from 145.0. The growth rate eased to 7.1% from 7.5%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

– watch Lakshman Achuthan’s current interview on Reuters.

– read ECRI’s “Jobless Rates Show Cyclical Revival, Structural Slack“.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The February index value (issued in March) shows the rate of economic growth marginally slowing.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Near 8 3/4 year high

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge decreased to 113.2 from a 113.5 reading in February, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“While the USFIG dipped in March, it remains in a cyclical upswing,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “In essence, underlying inflation pressures are still elevated.”

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February economy’s rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth marginally improved..

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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