ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 53rd week – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their lagging index.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle but show the rate of growth slowing. They are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. WLI Edged Down
Click here for the U.S. Weekly Leading Index data file.
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 144.1 from 144.5. The growth rate ticked down to 7.9% from 8.8%.
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
– read ECRI’s “Fed Not Crying Wolf“.
– read ECRI’s “EM: From Ugly Ducklings to Swans“.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator
RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The February index value (issued in March) shows the rate of economic growth marginally slowing.
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
U.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge increased to 113.4 from a 113.0 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“The USFIG inched up further in February, staying in a cyclical upswing,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain in a rising trend.”
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February economy’s rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth marginally improved..
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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