Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 250,000 to 260,000 (consensus 256,000), and the Department of Labor reported 249,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 256,000 (reported last week as 256,000) to 253,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
The trend of the 4 week moving average is continuing to marginally trend down. On the other hand, the trend of year-over-year improvement of initial unemployment claims is moderating – and this trend historically indicates a weakening GDP. This marks 83 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 6.4 % lower (improvement from the 6.2 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2015.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line). 2015 (violet line), 2016 (light blue)
Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending October 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 249,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 254,000. The 4-week moving average was 253,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 256,000. This is the lowest level for this average since December 8, 1973 when it was 252,250. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. This marks 83 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.5 percent for the week ending September 24, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 24 was 2,058,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since July 1, 2000 when it was 2,052,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 2,000 from 2,062,000 to 2,064,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,094,750, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since August 12, 2000 when it was 2,090,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 2,115,250 to 2,115,750.
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