ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – continued in negative territory.This index now spent 31 consecutive weeks in negative territory.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 131.0 from 129.3. The growth rate ticked up to -3.1% from -3.5%.
To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Bloomberg.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. The January number (issued in February) shows slight economic improvement in January.
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Inflation Gauge Grows in February
U.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 105.1 from an upwardly revised 103.4 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
The January reading was first reported as 102.7.
“The USFIG increased further in February to a 16-month high,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while still relatively restrained, have perked up a bit lately.”
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January’s economy’s rate of growth (released in February) showed the rate of growth was marginally improving.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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