ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which has spent 28 weeks in negative territory – is now into positive territory for the second week. It is now forecasting better growth later this year.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 134.6 from 134.2. The growth rate rose to 1.2% from 0.5%.
To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The March update (reported in April) shows the rate of economic growth is now slowing.
U.S. Coincident Index:
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.1 from a revised March 100.2 reading, first reported as 100.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“With the USFIG moving up, underlying inflation pressures have risen a little,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February’s economy’s rate of growth (released in March) is essentially unchanged.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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