Written by Steven Hansen
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined after its surge last month – but remains in the growth channel seen over the past year.
This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The market expected this index’s level at 95.0 to 109.0 (consensus 99.1) versus the 96.4 reported.
ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continues to forecast economic weakness over the next six months.
Additional comments from the economists at The Conference Board add context to the index’s behavior.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in January, declined in February. The Index now stands at 96.4 (1985=100), down from 103.8 in January. The Present Situation Index decreased to 110.2 from 113.9, while the Expectations Index declined to 87.2 from 97.0 in January.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was February 12.
According to Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “After a large gain in January, consumer confidence retreated in February, but still remains at pre-recession levels (September 2007, Index, 99.5). Consumers’ assessment of current conditions remained positive, but short-term expectations declined. While the number of consumers expecting conditions to deteriorate was virtually unchanged, fewer consumers expect conditions to improve, prompting a less upbeat outlook. Despite this month’s decline, consumers remain confident that the economy will continue to expand at the current pace in the months ahead.”
Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was moderately less favorable in February than in January. Those saying business conditions are “good” decreased from 28.2 percent to 26.0 percent, however those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased from 17.3 percent to 17.0 percent. Consumers were also somewhat less positive in their assessment of the job market, with the proportion stating jobs are “plentiful” decreasing slightly from 20.7 percent to 20.5 percent, and those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increasing from 24.6 percent to 26.2 percent.
Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook was considerably less positive in February. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased from 18.9 percent to 16.1 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen increased from 8.2 percent to 8.7 percent.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 17.3 percent to 13.4 percent. However, those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 14.8 percent to 14.3 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their incomes declined from 19.5 percent to 15.1 percent. The proportion expecting a decrease rose from 10.8 percent to 12.0 percent.
The LEI which shows the index – as well as showing some turbulence in the indicator’s post recession climb:
LEI as an Economic Monitoring Tool:
The usefulness of the LEI is not in the headline graphics but by examining its trend behavior. Econintersect contributor Doug Short (Advisor Perspectives / dshort.com) produces two trend graphics. The first one shows the year-over-year growth, as well as the three month rolling average of the rate of change – shown against the NBER recessions.
For a better view of the current conditions, the above chart is zoomed below to better show the current timeframe.
As an analyst, I keep my eyes on 3 month rate-of-change (red bars). There is a short term (half year) trend along the zero line. Any recession warning follows months of negative growth of this index. This is why the authors of this index are saying no recession is near.
The methodology for this index was “improved” in December 2011.
As a comparison to the LEI, ECRI’s WLI (which Econintersect reports on weekly) remains in contraction territory.
Current ECRI WLI Index
Econintersect believes the USA economy continues to be weakly expanding at Main Street level, but the growth rate has been relatively flat (no acceleration or deceleration) for the last half year (analysis here).
Caveats on the Use of the Leading Economic Index (LEI)
This index is produced by The Conference Board (a private money making company) – who charges for the details of the indices they publish – although the summary of this index is available to the public. Its designed to predict economic growth over the next six months.
This is not a “black box” economic forecasting index as The Conference Board publishes the components. It was completely revised with the release of the December 2011 (analysis comparing the old and new index components – click here). The new components of the index and multipliers:
The index does not adjust for inflation or population growth, is not final for several months after being published, and is subject to annual revision. The methodology in producing this index:
1) normalized levels of the indicator rather than its monthly changes will be used to calculate the component contributions of components based on diffusion indexes such as the ISM New Orders Index; 2) when component data are missing, autoregressions in log differences instead of levels will be used to calculate the statistical imputation of the missing months; 3) trend adjustment will be done in two periods: 1959-1983 and 1984-2010 (same as the volatility adjustment); and 4) LCI contributions to the LEI are calculated from its levels (not monthly changes) and it is inverted As a result of these changes, the history of the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the comprehensive benchmark revision. Based on its performance since 1990, and especially before and during the 2008-2009 recession, the new LEI should provide more accurate predictions of business cycle peaks and troughs.
Econintersect has published correlations of the new LEI to past recessions. At first glance this index provides recession warning.
The fly-in-the-ointment is that this analysis is that the above graph is not a real time analysis. Consider that the LEI is not final when first issued – it is subject to revision for months. From The Conference Board:
To address the problem of lags in available data, those leading, coincident and lagging indicators that are not available at the time of publication are estimated using statistical imputation. An autoregressive model is used to estimate each unavailable component. The resulting indexes are therefore constructed using real and estimated data, and will be revised as the unavailable data during the time of publication become available. Such revisions are part of the monthly data revisions, now a regular part of the U.S. Business Cycle Indicators program.
The data does not exist to establish what The Conference Board’s LEI values would have been in real time – at this point only the final numbers are known. Unfortunately, knowing the current values is no assurance that a recession is or is not imminent as there is no track record of real time performance.
Old Analysis Blog
New Analysis Blog
|All Posts on Leading Economic Indicator||All Posts on Leading Economic Indicator|
|All Posts on Economic Forecasts||All Posts on Economic Forecasts|