Written by Gary
Goldman sees sharp deceleration in US economic growth in 2022 (SPY +0.3%). DOW and the SP 500 closed at record highs ahead of tech earnings, Fed meeting.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
Automakers Take Multi-Billion Profit Hit As Battery Metals BoomRising prices of critical electric vehicle (EV) metals are denting the profits of global automakers, just as a growing number of legacy carmakers are investing more in zero-emission vehicles. The rally in lithium and copper priceskey battery metalscomes at a time when the global auto industry faces increased supply chain pricing pressure from the chip shortage and higher prices of steel and other input materials. The rally in the prices of raw materials highlights the challenges the industry, and the world, face in accelerating | |
Armenia Looks At UAE To Help Build Major Solar PlantsThe Armenian government is looking to expand the countrys renewable energy capacity with an ambitious plan to build two new solar power plants. This month, the government finalized a deal with United Arab Emirates-based renewable energy company Masdar to build the first plant by 2025. The 200-megawatt plant, to be known as Ayg-1, will become the countrys largest solar power plant and will have nearly half of the current capacity of Armenias main energy generator, the Metsamor nuclear power plant? According to the government, | |
U.S. Shale Is Scrambling To Reinvent ItselfOil has dominated global economics and dictated the shape, terms, and function of the geopolitical map for nearly 200 years. While two centuries is the merest of blips on the timeline of human history, its hard for us today to imagine a world without oil in all of its myriad forms and byproducts, not to mention its hefty environmental externalities. For better and for worse, we live on a petro-planet. Since the black gold rush of the mid 19th century, oil has made the world smaller, connecting people as well as markets and making international | |
Pembina Terminates Agreement To Buy Inter Pipeline In All-Stock DealPembina Pipeline Corporation has terminated its previous agreement to buy Inter Pipeline in the latest twist in the biggest multi-billion fight over pipeline resources control in Canada since 2019. On Monday, Pembina Pipeline said it had terminated its previous arrangement to buy Inter Pipeline in an all-stock transaction that had valued Inter Pipeline’s common shares at around US$6.6 billion (C$8.3 billion), based on the closing price of Pembina’s common shares on May 31, 2021. The initial deal, announced in June, was expected to create one of | |
Growing Activist Pressure Puts Key Middle East Oil Deal On HoldA UAE oil transport deal is now on hold due to environmental concerns from Israels environmental protection ministry following pressure from activists. The agreement between the UAE and Israel expects to see Middle Eastern oil transported to Eilat, a red seaport, by tanker, which would then be carried by a pipeline across Israel to reach the Mediterranean port of Ashkelon for it to be shipped to Europe. If approved, this would allow for the transportation of tens of millions of tonnes of petroleum projects, through a new transport link between | |
China Strikes Back At EU For Carbon Border TaxThe European Union is breaching trade principles with its proposal to impose a so-called carbon border tax that would push up the prices of non-EU products sold in the bloc to account for their carbon footprint. “CBAM is essentially a unilateral measure to extend the climate change issue to the trade sector. It violates WTO principles … and (will) seriously undermine mutual trust in the global community and the prospects for economic growth,” a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment told media today, as quoted by Reuters. The | |
Brother of top Biden advisor lobbied Executive Office of the President on behalf of GMSteve Ricchetti’s brother Jeff lobbied the National Security Council on behalf of General Motors in the second quarter. | |
Consumer losses due to Covid-related fraud top $500 millionConsumers have reported losing more than $500 million to Covid-related fraud since the beginning of 2020, according to the Federal Trade Commission. | |
Some Americans with ‘long Covid’ may qualify for federal disability resources, Biden saysPresident Joe Biden on Monday announced that some Americans experiencing long-term effects of Covid may qualify for disability resources and protections from the federal government. | |
Moderna says it plans to expand Covid vaccine trial for kids 5 to 11, will seek FDA OK as early as year-endModerna confirmed to CNBC on Monday it plans to expand the size of its clinical trial testing its Covid-19 vaccine in kids ages 5 to 11. | |
California is requiring proof of Covid vaccination for state employees, predicting significant rise in hospitalizationsState employees working in a hospital setting who don’t require proof of vaccination will be required to take a Covid test twice a week. | |
Lucid Motors CEO says EV start-up is in an ‘enviable position’ as stock pops in its debutLucid Motors expects to deliver its first electric vehicle, the Lucid Air, in the second half of this year. | |
More than half of adults have unused gift cards. Here’s how to make sure you don’t lose that moneyThere’s about $15 billion in unused gift cards and other vouchers outstanding. That represents an average of about $116 per person. | |
American Airlines warns about fuel shortages around the country, asks pilots to conserveAmerican asked pilots to save fuel due to shortage at certain midsize airports. | |
Hasbro CEO expects robust demand to continue despite higher prices, toymaker’s shares rise 11%Hasbro expects robust demand for toys to continue even though the company is hiking prices to offset increased shipping and other costs. | |
Swedish researchers are paying unvaccinated people $23 to have their Covid shotSwedish scientists are attempting to find out if financial incentives could motivate people to get vaccinated against Covid-19. | |
Americans are ‘mixing and matching’ Covid vaccines over concerns about the delta variantSome Americans say they are finding ways to get extra Covid shots, with some even going as far as receiving the extra shots from different companies. | |
Trump friend Tom Barrack says ‘I’m 100% innocent’ of illegal lobbying for the United Arab EmiratesPrivate equity investor Thomas Barrack is accused of illegally lobbying then-President Donald Trump for the United Arab Emirates. | |
Crypto Pops, Dollar Drops, Bonds & Stocks ChopCrypto Pops, Dollar Drops, Bonds & Stocks Chop Before we get started on today’s market malarkey, we would like to spend a moment of reflection – today is the 9th anniversary of Draghi’s infamous “whatever it takes” moment… It appears to have worked… for stonk markets at least… Source: Bloomberg Since that date, bitcoin is up 454,000%! | |
Peak Growth Fears Captured In Record Low Real YieldsPeak Growth Fears Captured In Record Low Real Yields By Laura Cooper, Bloomberg reporter and macro commentator U.S. real yields hitting record lows captures the cautious mood in markets “- and expectations for policymakers to ease up on the hawkish tone amid rising virus and growth risks. The move looks overdone, with a U.S. recovery still strong despite peak growth in 2Q. Money markets have pared back rate-hike bets amid concerns the delta variant could see growth recoveries stumble, warranting ongoing monetary accommodation. The implied yield of the December 2022 Eurodollar futures has slipped from the late June highs, with all eyes turning to the FOMC later this week. Easing growth optimism, renewed market volatility and virus uncertainty reduces the likelihood of a hawkish surprise with those tapering discussions likely to continue ahead of Jackson Hole. Of course, the virus spread may not materially thwart the recovery. Slower growth is inevitable after a robust 2Q, to be captured in data this week. And inflation coming in hotter-than-expected with an … | |
And Now The Hangover: Goldman Sees Sharp Deceleration In US Economic Growth In 2022And Now The Hangover: Goldman Sees Sharp Deceleration In US Economic Growth In 2022 It was good while it lasted, but the party is finally ending. One day after we reported that unemployed households which no longer receive emergency benefits are suddenly spending far less, and on the same day we read about an “unprecedented spike” in evictions as foreclosure moratoriums end, the only thing missing was a sellside downgrade to the US economy. Well, we got just that early this morning, when Goldman – which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections – cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, “as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy. But while Goldman’s expected 2021 slowdown is manageable, it gets far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% – 2% by the second half of 2022, a far “sharper deceleration than consensus expects.” | |
Decline In UK COVID Cases Signals Coming “Inflection” For US As Delta Fears SubsideDecline In UK COVID Cases Signals Coming “Inflection” For US As Delta Fears Subside Just one week ago, as Dr. Anthony Fauci was cranking the Delta variant “fearmongering” up to 11 once again, JPM’s Croatian quant Marko Kolanovic was telling the bank’s clients that a looming inflection point for new cases in the UK (widely seen as a leading indicator for the direction of new cases in the US) would soon arrive, kick-starting demand for value stocks and reopening plays. Althought Kolanovic is a Wall Street quant, not an epidemiologist, it turns out his view was correct. Because one week later, the number of new cases being confirmed in the UK and EU has fallen, even as the UK’s “Freedom Day” has come and gone. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid described the decline in new cases in the UK “nothing short of remarkable”. According to | |
Tesco Bank to close all its current accountsThe bank says most of the accounts have limited activity and are not being used. | |
UK defence firm bid monitored by governmentThe government says it will monitor the proposed sale of Ultra Electronics to US equity-owned Cobham. | |
Jaguar Land Rover owner Tata Motors feels chip shortage strainTata Motors sees losses narrow, but warns that a lack of semiconductors could halve car production. | |
Recent auctions suggest RBI easing its vice-like grip on 10-year bondOn July 9, when RBI conducted the maiden auction of the new 10-year bond, the central bank may have provided a signal that the 6 per cent handle of the last year was now a thing of the past. | |
Glenmark Life Sciences IPO opens tomorrow: Should you subscribe?Considering the FY-21 adjusted EPS of Rs 28.69 on post issue basis, the upper price band of Glenmark Life Sciences IPO implies a P/E of 25.09 with a market cap of Rs 8,822 crore. | |
Bitcoin nears $40,000 as shorts fuel rally on Amazon speculationAs the largest digital token gained on the speculation, investors rushing to cover bearish bets fueled the rally, with the coin up as much as 15 per cent to $39,681 on Monday. | |
: Schumer says Senate could work through weekend to reach infrastructure dealSenate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Monday said lawmakers may stay in session through the weekend to finish a bill on infrastructure, as pressure was mounting on Washington to show progress on one of President Joe Biden’s top priorities. | |
Key Words: The infrastructure bill should be funded by ‘Build America Bonds,’ Scott Minerd saysThis institutional investor thinks there’s a lot to like about the U.S. bringing back an infrastructure finance program that worked in the Great Recession – but some things have changed since then. | |
Bond Report: Treasury yields hold steady to start the week, ahead of Fed meetingTreasury yields were little changed as investors prepare for Wednesday’s decision from Federal Reserve policy makers. |
Summary of Economic Releases this Week
Earnings Summary for Today
leading Stock Positions
Current Commodity Prices
Commodities are powered by Investing.com
Current Currency Crosses
The Forex Quotes are powered by Investing.com.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated: