31Jan2019 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Futures Mixed, DOW Calling In Sick, Down Double Digits, SP 500 Also Down, Nasdaq Up +0.4%

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed today. The FTSE 100 is up 0.48% while the CAC 40 gains 0.02%. The DAX is off 0.51%.

New Unilever CEO inherits disappointing sales performance

Unilever reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales on Thursday, hurt by troubles in Latin America and weak growth in developed markets as new Chief Executive Alan Jope took over.

Trump says U.S.-China trade talks ‘going well’ but wants to see Xi

U.S. President Donald Trump was upbeat on Thursday about high-level trade talks with Chinese officials in Washington but said no final deal would be made until he meets with Chinese President Xi Jingping.

China offers Xi meeting with Trump in China next month: WSJ

China trade negotiators are proposing a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump in China next month, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday citing unnamed sources.

General Electric sales top Wall Street estimates, shares rally

General Electric Co beat estimates for sales and cash flow in the fourth quarter and said it had reached a tentative deal to settle a subprime mortgage case with U.S. regulators, sending its shares sharply higher.

Watchdog fight erupts in Danske Bank scandal blame game

Danish and Estonian financial regulators are blaming each other for the Danske Bank money laundering scandal, which has highlighted the need for better cross-border surveillance.

OPEC oil output drops in January on Saudi cut, outages and sanctions

OPEC oil supply has fallen in January by the largest amount in two years, a Reuters survey found, as top exporter Saudi Arabia over-delivered on the group’s supply pact while Iran, Libya and Venezuela registered involuntary declines.

UBS bets on investment banking, wealth tie-up in bid for growth

UBS, the world’s biggest wealth manager, has appointed corporate banking veteran Christian Rosset to lead a new wealth management team tasked with strengthening corporate offerings for entrepreneur clients, the bank told employees this week.

Samsung Electronics forecasts weaker 2019 earnings as chip sales slow

Samsung Electronics Co Ltd warned of weaker earnings in 2019 as it posted a 29 percent drop in fourth-quarter operating profit on Thursday, hit by a slowdown in demand for memory chips.

Blackstone fourth-quarter distributable earnings down 42 percent on year at $722 million

Blackstone Group LP, the world’s largest manager of alternative assets such as private equity and real estate, said on Thursday fourth-quarter distributable earnings fell 42 percent from a year earlier to $722 million.

One Bank’s Shocking Fed Reaction: “Epic Market Volatility Is Assured”

Submitted by Rabobank strategist Michael Every

The ECB: a legend in its own mind. Draghi recently emphasized that although GDP growth was not looking good now, better times lay ahead – because Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus will kick in. I know the neoliberal Davos consensus Draghi champions is a big fan of outsourcing, but isn’t it taking things a bit too far when the central bank of the world’s richest region leaves much-needed stimulus to a far poorer country with a political-economy anathema to it? If Brexit goes badly wrong will Draghi be on the phone to the PBOC straight away in that case?

Yesterday the ECB also proudly Tweeted its own economic research showing **drumroll** that QE helped reduce inequality.

ECB asset purchases have reduced inequality in the eurozone, our research shows. They have especially benefited low-income households, which suffer the most from unemployment. Full Research Bulletin here https://t.co/MlMQO2BXxK pic.twitter.com/4DtpcOsqms

— European Central Bank (@ecb) January 30, 2019

That’s right, reduce. The central claims are: (1) by lowering unemployment at the lower end of the socio-economic ladder, QE put money in people’s pockets; (2) higher stock prices didn’t have any influence on wealth inequality; and (3) higher house prices helped to reduce inequality.

I can hear the stunned silence. That’s wonderfully convenient for the ECB, and for Davos Man, as the 2019 WEF started by warning of the need to look after “the losers of globalisation” and to refocus its mora …

Trump Says “No Final Deal” On Trade Until He Meets Xi

As talks in Washington between a delegation of senior US officials led by Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and a delegation from Beijing led by Vice Premier Liu He enter their second day, President Trump conclusively ruled out the possibility that a deal could be announced by the end of the week in a series of early morning tweets.

The president said that while the negotiations are going “very well,” he said that “no final deal will be made until my friend President Xi, and I, meet in the near future to discuss and agree on some of the long standing and more difficult points.”

China’s top trade negotiators are in the U.S. meeting with our representatives. Meetings are going well with good intent and spirit on both sides. China does not want an increase in Tariffs and feels they will do much better if they make a deal. They are correct. I will be……

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 31, 2019

….meeting with their top leaders and representatives today in the Oval Office. No final deal will be made until my friend President Xi, and I, meet in the near future to discuss and agree on some of the long standing and more difficult points. Very comprehensive transaction….

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 31, 2019

According to the president, the two sides are seeking a “comprehensive deal” that will leave “NOTHING unresolved”…suggesting that even the more controversial issues like US de …

Guaido Claims “Clandestine Meetings” With Venezuela’s Military In NYT Op-Ed

In a bid to solidify his legitimacy, Venezuela’s self-proclaimed interim president Juan Guaido has claimed in a New York Times Op-Ed that he and his advisers have “had clandestine meetings with members of the armed forces and the security forces” in Venezuela, offering amnesty to all who are not found guilty of crimes against humanity.

Guaido declared himself interim president of Venezuela last week. Backed by the United States and most of Latin America – and with US-based Venezuelan bank accounts turned over to him, the 35-year-old opposition leader writes that “Maduro no longer has support of the people,” and that his “time is running out.”

“In order to manage his exit with the minimum of bloodshed, all of Venezuela must unite in pushing for a definitive end to his regime.”

Read Guaido’s Op-Ed below:

***

Juan Guaidó Via the New York Times

Juan Guaidó: Venezuelans, Strength Is in Unity

To end the Maduro regime with the minimum of bloodshed, we need the support of pro-democratic governments, institutions and individuals the world over.

CARACAS, Venezuela — On Jan. 23, 61 years after the vicious dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez was ousted, Venezuelans once again gathered for a day of democratic celebration.

Pérez Jiménez was fraudulently elected by a Constituent Assembly in 1953. His term of office was scheduled to expire in 1958. But rather than calling for free and transparent presidential elections, he was undemocratically re-elected after holding a plebiscite on his administration late in 1957. Following widespread protests and a rupture within the military establishment, the dictator left the country and Venezuela regained its freedom on J …

Global Stock Rally Fades After Italy Slides Into Recession

The total capitulation by the Federal Reserve which confirmed all it cares about is the stock market, propelled world stocks to their best January on record on Thursday, although in a deja vu of last January, when stocks similarly soared only to flop spectacularly, traders were trying not to get too carried away.

An overnight rally in global markets, helped by a dovish capitulation by the Fed which sent the S&P 1.55% higher on Wednesday as well as strong results from Facebook that sent the stock 11% higher premarket, faded overnight following another contractionary print in China’s official manufacturing PMI (49.5, up from 49.4 in Dec and above the 49.3 estimate), and the latest GDP print out of Italy which confirmed that the country had entered a recession for the first time in 6 years.

London Markets: London’s FTSE 100 higher after updates from Shell, BT and Diaegeo

London markets were up on Thursday, after corporate updates from heavyweight Shell, BT and Diaegeo moved the FTSE higher

Need to Know: Here’s the last thing standing in the way of a rip-roaring rally for stocks

Our call of the day says after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hail mary on policy, there’s still one big thing that could set this stock market off in one big meaty rally.

Futures Movers: Oil stalls at 2-month highs, about to close book on sharp January gain

Oil futures prices churn in little-changed trading Thursday to cap off a solid January that delivered a roughly 19% monthly gain for the commodity.