Written by Gary
US stock markets extended its gains today (SPY +0.6%) after a Chinese official’s optimistic remarks boosted investor hopes about US-China trade talks.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
United Continental close to sealing deal on Avianca loan, partnership: WSJUnited Continental Holdings is close to partnering with Latin American carrier Avianca Holdings SA , as the U.S. airline company agrees to pay off debt owed to a hedge fund, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. | |
BRICS slam protectionism as China-U.S. spat overshadows G20 talksChinese President Xi Jinping and the leaders of major developing economies condemned protectionism at a G20 summit in Argentina on Friday overshadowed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to escalate tariffs on China. | |
Buenos Aires locked down for G20 summit, protest tightly controlledThousands of demonstrators gathered in Buenos Aires on Friday to march against the G20’s economic policies as the world’s leading industrialized nations opened their annual summit in the Argentine capital. | |
U.S., Canada, Mexico sign trade deal, Trump shrugs off Congress hurdleThe United States, Canada and Mexico signed a North American trade pact on Friday, and President Donald Trump brushed aside difficulties he may have in getting the deal through U.S. Congress, where opposition Democrats will control one of its two chambers. | |
Oil tumbles on supply glut; Wall Street up on G20 commentsOil prices retreated on Friday amid a global glut, racking up a 20 percent drop for November, while most major equity markets kept moves tight ahead of weekend talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. | |
Oil drops; losses limited by hopes of OPEC, Russia output cutOil prices edged lower on Friday due to concerns of oversupply and a strong dollar but losses were limited by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia would agree some form of production cut next week. | |
Trump: ‘something could very well come out’ of trade talks with China’s XiU.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday “something could very well come out” of his meeting on trade with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires, a Voice of America reporter said on Twitter. | |
Former Autonomy boss Lynch to fight U.S. fraud chargesThe United States has filed criminal charges against British entrepreneur Mike Lynch over the $11 billion sale of Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard seven years ago, accusing him of making false statements that inflated the value of the software group. | |
Wall Street advances as trade optimism gathers steamWall Street extended its gains on Friday after a Chinese official’s optimistic remarks boosted investor hopes about U.S.-China trade talks as the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires opened. | |
Fed & FOMO Rescue Stocks But Bond Yields, Bitcoin, & Black Gold CollapseTrump better deliver… China stocks eked out a modest gain on the week thanks to a late Friday liftathon ahead of this weekend’s uncertainty… But Shanghai Composite closed down on the month (2nd month lower in a row) European markets were oddly quiet all week aside from the buying panic at the open on Monday…(but Italy handily outperforme … | |
The Fed Cheat Sheet RevealedAuthored by Eric Cinnamond, In a recent post I noted, “…barring a consequential decline in asset prices, I believe the Federal Reserve will be forced to continue increasing rates and unwinding their bloated balance sheet.” While I did not have a number in mind when I used the word “consequential”, I certainly didn’t believe a flat YTD number on the S&P 500 would cause the Fed to alter their plans. And that, of course, is what markets were led to believe yesterday after Jerome Powell stated the funds rate is “just below” the Fed’s theoretical neutral rate. Now that we have a better understanding of the Federal Reserve’s tolerance for financial instability (not much), I believe investors are in a better position to gauge future policy responses related to further declines in equity prices. I put my best guess together in the Federal Reserve Cheat Sheet below:
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Carlos Ghosn’s Detention Extended By 10 DaysCarlos Ghosn better get comfortable in his austere, 52-square-foot cell. Because he’s going to be staying there for at least another two weeks. That’s because – as was expected – Tokyo prosecutors have been granted permission by a local court to hold Ghosn for an additional ten days past, meaning that he can now be held for up to three weeks before being formally charged (or before prosecutors announced their intention to bring charges), according to the Wall Street Journal. But if their hope is to convince the Japanese public that Ghosn is guilty of abusing his power as Nissan’s chairman, they are going to need to publish more concrete evidence of wrong doing – and do it quickly. Because as one former prosecutor told the Washington Post, the prosecutors’ case is beginning to look “haphazard”. Meanwhile, suspicions that Ghosn’s detention – which led to his ouster from Nissan and Mitsubishi – was the result of internal politics and resentments against his leadership at Nissan have continued to fester. | |
FOMOThe frequent repetition that “something could maybe possibly happen” at the Trump-Xi dinner this weekend appears to have sparked full-scale buying panic in stocks as FOMO replaces fear… Good luck.
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December 2018 Economic Forecast Index Insignificantly Declines But All Still GoodWritten by Steven Hansen With the mixed economic picture and stock market turmoil one might expect our forecast to significantly degrade. But the Econintersect Economic Index (EEI) insignificantly declined this month and remains well into territory associated with normal expansions. Over the last 3 months the index’s growth rate is almost unchanged. | |
The Fed: Big questions ahead for Fed as banking evolves, regional officials agreePresidents of the Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City Federal Reserve banks spoke Tuesday in New York about challenges facing the financial system, all of which will touch the central bank, from fintech payment companies to modernizing the 1970’s-era Community Reinvestment Act. | |
Trump Today: Trump Today: President predicts easy approval for newly signed trade pact with Canada, MexicoPresident Donald Trump on Friday predicted easy approval in Congress for a deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, as he appeared optimistic about trade with China during the Group of 20 meeting in Argentina. | |
Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield logs largest monthly drop in more than a yearTreasury yields fell on Friday, extending the weeklong decline, as President Donald Trump is set to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires. |
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