Written by Lance Roberts, Clarity Financial
Analysis and Stock Screens Exclusively For RIAPro Members
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S&P 500 Tear Sheet
Performance Analysis
Technical Composite
The technical overbought/sold gauge comprises several price indicators (RSI, Williams %R, etc.), measured using “weekly” closing price data. Readings above “80″ are considered overbought, and below “20″ is oversold. The current reading is 89.34 out of a possible 100.
Portfolio Positioning “Fear / Greed” Gauge
The “Fear/Greed” gauge is how individual and professional investors are “positioning” themselves in the market based on their equity exposure. From a contrarian position, the higher the allocation to equities, to more likely the market is closer to a correction than not. The gauge uses weekly closing data.
NOTE: The Fear/Greed Index measures risk from 0-100. It is a rarity that it reaches levels above 90. The current reading is 99.78 out of a possible 100.
Sector Model Analysis & Risk Ranges
How To Read This Table
- The table compares each sector and market to the S&P 500 index on relative performance.
- “MA XVER” is determined by whether the short-term weekly moving average crosses positively or negatively with the long-term weekly moving average.
- The risk range is a function of the month-end closing price and the “beta” of the sector or market.
- Table shows the price deviation above and below the weekly moving averages.
Weekly Stock Screens
Currently, there are four different stock screens for you to review. The first is S&P 500 based companies with a “Growth” focus, the second is a “Value” screen on the entire universe of stocks, and the last are stocks that are “Technically” strong and breaking above their respective 50-dma.
We have provided the yield of each security and a Piotroski Score ranking to help you find fundamentally strong companies on each screen. (For more on the Piotroski Score – read this report.)
S&P 500 Growth Screen
Low P/B, High-Value Score, High Dividend Screen
Fundamental Growth Screen
Aggressive Growth Strategy
Portfolio / Client Update
After increasing our equity exposure last week, there was little to do this week but just wait and watch. We are watching our indicators very closely as they are now moving back into overbought territory. When we get the next sell signal, which could happen as early as next week, we will begin trimming positions and taking profits accordingly.
The “barbell approach” in our portfolios has continued to work well. With our holdings split between “reflation” trades such as Energy, Financials, and Materials and “growth” focused on Technology, performance has been stable.
As we enter earnings season, there should be a significant beat rate of earnings for the quarter. However, this earnings season is likely to be the peak of that earnings growth for the rest of this year. Such will be because the year-over-year comparisons will become more difficult.
However, such should help support the equity markets in the near term which limits our downside risk for now.
Regardless, we continue watching our indicators closely.
Portfolio Changes
During the past week, we made minor changes to portfolios. We post all trades in real-time at RIAPRO.NET.
*** Trading Update – Equity and Sector Models ***
“We removed half of our 5% SPY position in both models this afternoon, bringing them both down to 2.5%. Our money flow models will turn bearish over the next day or two and we decided to take some profits.” – 4/15/21
- Sell 2.5% of SPY
As always, our short-term concern remains the protection of your portfolio. We have now shifted our focus from the election back to the economic recovery and where we go from here.
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