by Lance Roberts, Clarity Financial
Last week, we discussed why we were taking profits in positions that had gotten egregiously overbought for the second time this year.
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To wit:
“For the second time in a single year, we have begun the profit-taking process within our most profitable names. Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, Amazon, Costco, PG, and in Communications and Technology ETFs.”
That turned out to be timely as technology shares struggled to maintain their altitude. The tight “wedge” pattern that has developed suggests a downside break could quickly lead to a test of the 50-dma. Such would equate to about a 7% decline.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 continues to remain “technically trapped” between the June highs and the recent consolidation lows. With the market overbought on a short-term basis, the upside has remained limited. However, there is substantial support between the current uptrend line and the 50- and 200-dma’s, limiting downside risk at this juncture.
We will update our risk/reward ranges below. However, as noted previously, July held to its historical performance tendencies. However, the risk comes in August and September, where outcomes tend to be more volatile.
“In the short-term, the bulls remain in charge currently, and as such, we must be mindful of those trends. Also, the month of July tends to be one of the better performing months of the year.”
