Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
April’s jobs report; March’s trade deficit, construction spending, factory inventories and wholesale sales
Major economic reports released the past week include the Employment Situation Summary for April from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and four March reports that include metrics which were estimated in last week’s advance estimate of 1st quarter GDP: the Commerce Dept report on our international trade in goods and services for March, and the March report on Construction Spending (pdf), the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for March and the Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories report for March, all from the Census Bureau.
Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.
In addition, the Consumer Credit Report for March was released by the Fed on Friday of this week, and it showed that overall consumer credit, a measure of non-real estate debt, grew by a seasonally adjusted $25.8 billion, or at a 7.4% annual rate, as non-revolving credit expanded at a 7.2% annual rate to $3,261.2 billion, while revolving credit outstanding grew at a 7.9% rate to $980.4 billion…
Privately issued reports released this week included the ADP Employment Report for April and the light vehicle sales report for April from Wards Automotive, which estimated that vehicles sold at a 18.51 million annual rate in April, a 15 year high, up from the 17.75 million annual sales rate in March, and more than double the pandemic suppressed 8.58 million annual sales rate in April a year ago…this week also saw the Mortgage Monitor for March (pdf) from Black Knight Financial Services, which indicated that 5.02% of all mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 6.00% in February, but up from 3.39% in March of 2020, and that a record low of 0.30% of all mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from the 0.32% that were in foreclosure in February and down from the 0.42% of mortgages that were in foreclosure a year earlier.
In addition, this week saw both of the widely followed purchasing manager’s survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM): the April 2021 Manufacturing Report On Business indicated that the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fell to 60.7% in April, down from 64.7% in March, which still suggests a broad based growth among manufacturing firms nationally, while the April 2021 Services ISM Report On Business “reported their Services Index fell to 62.7%, down from 63.7% in March, indicating a slightly smaller plurality of service industry purchasing managers reported expansion in various facets of their business in April.
See also:
Employers Added 266,000 Jobs in April, Unemployment Rate Rose First Time Since Last April
The Employment Situation Summary for April indicated payroll job growth was much weaker than was expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up because a number of those unemployed started looking for work … seasonally adjusted estimates extrapolated from the establishment survey data projected that employers added 266,000 jobs in April, after the previously estimated payroll job increase for March was revised down from 916,000 to 770,000, while the payroll jobs increase for February was revised up from 468,000 to 536,000 … including those revisions, this report thus represents a total of 188,000 more seasonally adjusted payroll jobs than were reported last month, well below expectations for an increase of 978,000 jobs in this month’s report….that also means that seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls are still 8,215,000 below the record 152,523,000 jobs reported for February a year ago, before the first pandemic related layoffs kicked in….the unadjusted data shows that there were actually 1,089,000 more payroll jobs extant in April than in March, as the usual seasonal job increases in sectors such as construction, services to buildings and dwellings, and leisure and hospitality were normalized by the seasonal adjustments …
Seasonally adjusted job increases in April were concentrated in the private service sector and government, while several major sectors saw employment decreases…even after a 244,000 job downward seasonally adjustment, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector increased by 311,000 jobs, including the addition of 241,400 more jobs in bars and restaurants, 72,700 more jobs in amusements, gambling, and recreation, and 54,400 more jobs in accommodation…the government sector saw the addition of 48,000 jobs, including 31,100 in local education and 5,700 at the Federal level, not including the Post Office…another 44,000 jobs were added in a catch-all ‘other services’ category, including 16,300 spots with membership associations and organizations, 14,200 jobs in personal and laundry services and 13,800 in repair and maintenance….employment in health care and social assistance rose by 18,500, as the addition of 11,500 jobs in child day care services and 11,300 jobs in doctor’s offices were partly offset by the loss of 18,800 jobs in nursing homes …there were also 19,000 more jobs in the financial sector, mostly due to the addition of 16,500 jobs in real estate and rental and leasing, even as insurance carriers and related activities shed 7,000 employees….meanwhile, the broad professional and business services sector saw 79,000 jobs cut, as temporary help services employed 111.400 fewer than in March, more than offsetting gains of 11,600 job gains by architectural and engineering services…employment also fell by 74,100 in the transportation and warehousing sector, due to the loss of 77,400 jobs as package couriers and messengers….manufacturing employment fell by 18,000, due to 27,000 job losses in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing and 7,200 in the manufacture of wood products…the retail sector shed a net of 15,300 jobs, as a loss of 49,400 jobs in food and beverage stores was mostly offset by gains of 20,400 jobs in sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores and 10,200 more jobs at clothing stores…in addition, private educational services cut 19,600 jobs during the month, with no further details on those provided…meanwhile, employment in other major sectors, including resource extraction, construction, wholesale trade, the information sector and utilities, all saw employment change by less than 8,000 over the month….
The establishment survey also showed that average hourly pay for all employees rose by 21 cents an hour to $30.17 an hour in April, after it had decreased by 4 cents an hour in March; at the same time, the average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees increased by 20 cents to $25.45 an hour…employers also reported that the average workweek for all private payroll employees rose by 0.1 hour to 35.0 hours in April, while hours for production and non-supervisory personnel remained at 34.4 hours, after rising a revised 0.4 hour in March…the manufacturing workweek was also unchanged at 40.5 hours, while average factory overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours…
At the same time, the April household survey indicated that the seasonally adjusted extrapolation of those who reported being employed rose by an estimated 328,000 to 151,176,000, while the similarly estimated number of those counted as unemployed rose by 102,000 to 9,812,000; which together meant there was a 430,000 increase in the total labor force…since the working age population had grown by 100,000 over the same period, that meant the number of employment aged individuals who were not in the labor force fell by 330,000 to 100,115,000…meanwhile, the increase of those in the labor force was large enough, when compared to the civilian noninstitutional population, to increase the labor force participation rate by 0.2%, from 61.5% in March to 61.7% in April….at the same time, the increase in number employed as a percentage of the increase in the population was enough to raise the employment to population ratio, which we could think of as an employment rate, by 0.1%, from 57.8% in March to 57.9% in April….however, the increase in the number unemployed was also large enough to raise the unemployment rate from 6.0% to 6.1%, the first increase in a year….on the other hand, the number who reported they were involuntarily working part time fell by 583,000 to 5,243,000 in April, which was enough to ;lower the alternative measure of unemployment, U-6, which includes those “employed part time for economic reasons”, from 10.7% in March to 10.4% in April, the lowest since March of last year…..
Like most reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the employment situation press release itself is easy to read and understand, so you can get more details on these two reports from there…note that almost every paragraph in that release points to one or more of the tables that are linked to on the bottom of the release, and those tables are also on a separate html page here that you can open it along side the press release to avoid the need to scroll up and down the page.
See also:
Trade Deficit Increases 5.6% to Record High in March on Rising Imports of Consumer Goods
Our trade deficit was at another record high in March, 5.6% higher than in February, as both our imports and exports increased, but our imports increased by more….the Commerce Department’s report on our international trade in goods and services for March indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $3.9 billion to $74.4 billion in March, from a February deficit that was revised from the originally reported record $71.1 billion to $70.5 billion…in rounded totals, the value of our March exports rose by $12.4 billion to $200.0 billion on a $11.7 billion increase to $142.9 billion in our exports of goods and a $0.8 billion increase to $57.1 billion in our exports of services, while our imports rose by $16.4 billion to $274.5 billion on a $15.3 billion increase to $234.4 billion in our imports of goods and a $1.1 billion increase to $40.0 billion in our imports of services….export prices averaged 2.1% higher in March, which means the change in our real exports was less than than the nominal increase by that percentage, while import prices were 1.2% higher, meaning that our real imports were likewise smaller than than their nominal value by that percentage…
Our March exports of goods were higher largely due to greater exports of industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, and consumer goods… referencing the Full Release and Tables for March (pdf), in Exhibit 7 we find that our exports of industrial supplies and materials rose by $5,173 million to $51,494 million on a $3,382 million increase in our exports of nonmonetary gold, an $876 million increase in our exports of crude oil, a $571 million increase in our exports of precious metals other than gold, a $494 million increase in our exports of petroleum products other than fuel oil, and a $439 million increase in our exports of natural gas liquids, which were partially offset by a $1,711 million decrease in our exports of natural gas, while our exports of capital goods rose by $2,919 million to $42,014 million, led by a $409 million increase in our exports of semiconductors, a $365 million increase in our exports of electric apparatuses, and a $269 million increase in our exports of medical equipment…in addition, our exports of consumer goods rose by $2.005 million to $17,100 million on a $410 million increase in our exports of artwork, antiques, and other collectibles, a $389 million increase in our exports of gem diamonds and a $339 million increase in our exports of pharmaceuticals…meanwhile, our exports of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines rose by $859 million to $12,758 million on a $303 million increase in our exports of passenger cars, and a $281 million increase in our exports of vehicle parts and accessories other than engines, chassis and tires, and our exports of foods, feeds and beverages rose by a net of $63 million to $13,302 million even as our exports of soybeans fell by $574 million as our exports of corn rose by $267 million, while our exports of other goods not categorized by end use rose by $659 million to $5,753 million….
Exhibit 8 in the Full Release and Tables gives us seasonally adjusted details on our goods imports and shows that rising imports of consumer goods, industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines were responsible for most of the increase in March imports…our imports of consumer goods rose by $4,477 million to $65,147 million on a $1,211 million increase in our imports of apparel and textiles other than those of wool or cotton, an $853 million increase in our imports of furniture and related household goods, an $850 million increase in our imports of toys, games and sporting goods, a $799 million increase in our imports of cotton apparel and textiles, a $722 million increase in our imports of footwear, a $549 million increase in our imports of household appliances, a $450 million increase in our imports of non-textile apparel and household goods, a $549 million increase in our imports of cookware, cutlery, and kitchen tools, and a $353 million increase in our imports of camping apparel and gear, which in turn were partially offset by a $1,007 million decrease in our imports of cellphones, a $662 million decrease in our imports of pharmaceuticals, and a $406 million decrease in our imports of artwork, antiques and other collectibles….meanwhile, our imports of industrial supplies and materials rose by $3,697 million to $50,281 million on an $803 million increase in our imports of crude oil, a $607 million increase in our imports of fuel oil, a $561 million increase in our imports of petroleum products other than fuel oil, a $396 million increase in our imports of iron and steel mill products, and a $376 million increase of in our imports of organic chemicals, which were partially offset by a $1,279 million decrease in our imports of finished metal shapes and a $646 million decrease in our imports of natural gas, while our imports of capital goods rose by $3,315 million to $63,023 million on a $1,310 million increase in our imports of semiconductors, a $535 million increase in our imports of industrial machines other than those itemized, a $462 million increase in our imports of telecommunications equipment, a $427 million increase in our imports of medical equipment, a $423 million increase in our imports of electric apparatuses, partially offset by a $1,377 million decrease in our imports of civilian aircraft…in addition, our imports of automotive vehicles, parts and engines rose by $2,050 million to $30,234 million on a $982 million increase in our imports of in our imports of passenger cars and $656 million increase in our imports of vehicle parts and accessories other than engines, chassis and tires, while our imports of foods, feeds, and beverages rose by $919 million to $14,036 million led by a $310 million increase in our imports of fish and shellfish, and our imports of other goods not categorized by end use rose by $827 million to $10,305 million….
The press release for this month’s report summarizes Exhibit 19 in the full release pdf for March, which gives us surplus and deficit details on our goods trade with selected countries::
The March figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($3.6), Hong Kong ($2.9), Brazil ($1.0), Singapore ($0.6), and United Kingdom ($0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($36.9), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($8.4), Germany ($5.5), Japan ($5.1), Canada ($3.1), Italy ($2.9), Taiwan ($2.6), India ($2.2), South Korea ($2.1), France ($1.5), and Saudi Arabia (less than $0.1).
- The deficit with China increased $6.7 billion to $36.9 billion in March. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $11.3 billion and imports increased $7.6 billion to $48.2 billion.
- The deficit with Mexico increased $1.6 billion to $8.4 billion in March. Exports decreased $0.6 billion to $22.2 billion and imports increased $1.0 billion to $30.6 billion.
- The deficit with the European Union decreased $2.1 billion to $16.9 billion in March. Exports decreased $0.5 billion to $20.1 billion and imports decreased $2.6 billion to $37.0 billion.
In the advance estimate of 1st quarter GDP published last week, our March trade deficit in goods was estimated based on the sketchy Advance Report on our International Trade in Goods, which was released just before the GDP release…that report estimated that our seasonally adjusted March goods trade deficit was at $90,587 million on a Census basis, on goods exports of $142,047 million and goods imports of $232,633 million…this report revises that and shows that our actual Census basis goods trade deficit in March was at $90,604 million, on adjusted goods exports of $142,422 million and adjusted goods imports of $233,026 million…at the same time, the February goods trade deficit was revised from the $87,071 million indicated in that advance report to $86,997 million … combined, those revisions from the previously published figures indicate that the nominal trade in goods deficit used in the first quarter GDP report was $54 million too high, which work out to be a bit over $0.2 billion on an annualized basis, resulting in a small downward revision which would have a negligible impact on 1st quarter GDP.
however, for services, the BEA’s Key source data and assumptions (xls) for the advance estimate of first quarter GDP provides aggregate exports and imports of services at annual rates on an international-transactions-accounts basis, indicating that the BEA assumed a $15 billion increase in exports of services and a $2.5 billion increase in imports of services on that basis…while there is no comparable annualized metric or adjusted data in this report that we could match that to, this release does show that exports of services rose $0.8 billion in March after February exports of services were revised $0.2 billion higher, and that imports of services rose $1.1 billion in March after February imports of services were revised $0.2 billion lower…that suggests that the annual rate for March exports of services used in the GDP report was on the order of $3 billion too high, while the annual rate for March imports of services used in the GDP report was about $8.5 billion too low…revising those annualized figures, and annualizing the services trade revisions for February vis a vis those reported, the annual rate for 1st quarter services exports would be revised about $0.6 billion lower, while the annual rate for 1st quarter services exports would be revised about $2.1 billion higher…the resulting upward revision of $2.7 billion to our total services deficit should be enough to subtract 0.05 or 0.06 percentage points from 1st quarter GDP.
See also:
- March 2021 Sea Container Imports Again Significantly Improved Pointing To A Strong Economic Recovery
Construction Spending Rose 0.2% in March after Prior Months Were Revised Lower
The Census Bureau’s report on construction spending for March (pdf) estimated that the month’s seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,513.1 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 0.2 percent (plus/minus 0.8%)* above the revised annualized February estimate of $1,509.9 billion, and 5.3 percent (plus/minus 1.0 percent) above the estimated annualized level of construction spending in March of last year…the annualized February construction spending estimate was revised 0.5% lower, from $1,516.9 billion to $1,509.9 billion, while the annual rate of construction spending for January was revised 0.7% lower, from $1,529.0 billion to $1,518.7 billion, which together meant that the February construction spending decrease was revised from -0.8% to -0.6%..
A further breakdown of the different subsets of construction spending is provided in a Census summary, which precedes the detailed spreadsheets:
- Private Construction: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,169.2 billion, 0.7 percent (plus/minus 0.7 percent)* above the revised February estimate of $1,160.9 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $725.2 billion in March, 1.7 percent (plus/minus 1.3 percent) above the revised February estimate of $713.1 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $444.0 billion in March, 0.9 percent (plus/minus 0.7 percent) below the revised February estimate of $447.8 billion.
- Public Construction: In March, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $343.9 billion, 1.5 percent (plus/minus 1.3 percent) below the revised February estimate of $349.0 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $85.3 billion, 2.0 percent (plus/minus 2.5 percent)* below the revised February estimate of $87.1 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $98.8 billion, 2.2 percent (plus/minus 4.4 percent)* below the revised February estimate of $101.1 billion.
With the downward revisions to January and February figures, construction spending for those months of the 1st quarter was lower than was reported by the BEA in their advance estimate of GDP that we covered last week…as we saw above, annualized construction spending for January was revised $10.3 billion lower, and annualized construction spending for February was revised $7.0 billion lower….in reporting 1st quarter GDP, the BEA’s key source data and assumptions (xls) indicated that they had estimated March residential construction would be $7.6 billion more (at an annual rate) than that of the previously reported February figure, that March nonresidential construction would be valued $1.2 billion less than that of the reported February figure, and that March public construction would increase by $2.9 billion from previously reported February levels…totaling those figures, the 1st quarter GDP report showed March construction spending at an annual rate $9.3 billion higher than previously reported February levels…since this report shows that March construction spending was up at an $3.2 billion annual rate from February figures that were revised $7.0 billion lower, that means the total annualized construction figure used for March in the GDP report was $13.1 billion too high…averaging that overstatement with the the overstatements in the annual rates of construction spending used for January and February in the GDP report, we find that this report shows that construction spending was overestimated by $10.1 million (at an annual rate) in the 1st quarter GDP report, implying a downward revision to the related GDP components at a rate that would result in a subtraction of about 0.22 percentage points from first quarter GDP when the 2nd estimate is released at the end of May…we should caution that since our estimate is based on the change in nominal spending, an imbalance of inflation adjustments among the revised components might also have a material impact on the final revision.
See also:
March Factory Shipments Up 2.1%, Factory Inventories Up 0.7%
The Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, & Orders (pdf) for March from the Census Bureau reported that the seasonally adjusted value of new orders for manufactured goods increased by $5.8 billion or 1.1 percent to $512.9 billion in March, following a decrease of $2.6 billion or 0.5% to $507.1 billion in February, which was revised from the decrease of $4.1 billion or 0.8% to $505.7 billion that was reported for February last month….however, since the Census Bureau does not even collect data on new orders for non durable goodsfor this widely watched “factory orders report”, both the “new orders” and “unfilled orders” sections of this report are really only reliable as revised updates to the March advance report on durable goods which was released last week…on those durable goods orders revisions, the Census Bureau’s own summary, which precedes their detailed spreadsheet of the metrics included in this report, is quite clear and complete, so we’ll just quote directly from that summary here:
- Summary: New orders for manufactured goods in March, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $5.8 billion or 1.1 percent to $512.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent February decrease. Shipments, also up ten of the last eleven months, increased $10.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $513.6 billion. This followed a 1.9 percent February decrease. Unfilled orders, up three consecutive months, increased $4.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,087.8 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent February increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.21, down from 6.30 in February. Inventories, up seven of the last eight months, increased $5.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $707.7 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent February increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.38, down from 1.40 in February.
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $256.9 billion, up from the previously published 0.5 percent increase. This followed a 0.9 percent February decrease. Fabricated metal products, up six of the last seven months, led the increase, $1.4 billion or 4.0 percent to $35.4 billion. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $3.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $256.0 billion.
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, up six of the last seven months, increased $7.0 billion or 2.8 percent to $257.6 billion, up from the previously published 2.5 percent increase. This followed a 3.7 percent February decrease. Transportation equipment, also up six of the last seven months, led the increase, $3.8 billion or 4.9 percent to $82.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $3.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $256.0 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent February decrease. Petroleum and coal products, also up ten of the last eleven months, led the increase, $2.1 billion or 4.4 percent to $50.8 billion.
- Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up three consecutive months, increased $4.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,087.8 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.9 percent February increase. Fabricated metal products, up eleven consecutive months, led the increase, $2.3 billion or 2.8 percent to $83.0 billion.
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in March, up two consecutive months, increased $4.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $431.9 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.7 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $2.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $149.0 billion. Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, up seven of the last eight months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $275.8 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent February increase. Petroleum and coal products, up five consecutive months, drove the increase, $1.1 billion or 2.9 percent to $38.4 billion. By stage of fabrication, March materials and supplies increased 0.8 percent in durable goods and 0.5 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process increased 1.0 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.3 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods increased 1.2 percent in durable goods and 0.4 percent in nondurable goods.
The BEA’s Key source data and assumptions (xls) for the advance estimate of first quarter GDP indicates that they had estimated that the value of manufactured nondurable goods inventories would increase by $0.5 billion on a Census basis (ie, before price adjustments) in March, while this report obviously shows total non-durable goods factory inventories increased by $0.9 billion…the value of February’s non durable goods factory inventories was concurrently revised from $275.1 billion to $274.9 billion…that would mean that March’s inventory increase was underestimated by $0.2 billion in the GDP report, while February’s GDP inventory figure was $0.2 billion too high, which combined should wash and result in no revision to first quarter GDP inventories … we should caution that since our estimate of the impact on GDP is based on the change in nominal spending, an imbalance of inflation adjustments among the revised components might still have a material impact on the final revision, because the NIPA adjusted figure for nondurable goods inventories was a substantial (-$34.5 billion).
See also:
March Wholesale Sales Up 4.6%, Wholesale Inventories Up 1.3%
The March report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that the seasonally adjusted value of wholesale sales was at $567.9 billion, up 4.6 percent (plus/minus 0.7 percent) from the revised February level, and also 19.0 percent (plus/minus 1.1 percent) higher than wholesale sales of March 2020… the February preliminary estimate of wholesale sales was revised from the $538.3 billion reported last month to $542.7 billion, which the Census reports as “revised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.8 percent (plus/minus 0.7 percent) to virtually unchanged (plus/minus 0.7 percent)* from January…as an intermediate activity, wholesale sales are not included in GDP except insofar as they are a trade service, since the traded goods themselves do not represent an increase in the output of the goods sold….
On the other hand, the monthly change in private inventories is a major factor in GDP, since additional goods sitting in a warehouse represent goods that were produced but not sold, and this March report estimated that wholesale inventories were valued at $693.6 billion at month end, an increase of 1.3 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised February level and 4.2 percent (plus/minus 1.2 percent) higher than March a year ago, with the February preliminary inventory estimate concurrently revised upward from the originally reported $682.5 billion to $684.8 billion, which meant the change in inventories from January to February was revised from the increase of 0.6 percent (+/-0.4%) reported last month to an increase of 1.0 percent (plus/minus 0.2 percent) …
The BEA’s key source data and assumptions (xls) for the advance estimate of first quarter GDP indicates that they had estimated that the Census value of March wholesale inventories would increase by $9.3 billion from February before price adjustments, while this report shows that wholesale goods inventories increased by $9.8 billion…however, the value of February’s wholesale inventories that was used in the GDP report came from the sketchy Advance Report on Wholesale and Retail Inventories that was released just before the GDP report…that report had February wholesale inventories at $684,069 million, so hence February inventories have now been revised up by $0.7 billion from the figure used in the GDP report…that revision in turn means that the March inventory change figure used in the GDP was $1.2 billion too low…combining the final revisions to February and March, the nominal change in 1st quarter wholesale inventories will therefore be an increase of $1.9 billion from previously published figures, which should result in a 0.03 percentage point upward revision to first quarter GDP, assuming the inflation adjustments on the revisions are reasonably close to those on the advance report.
See also:
.
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
