Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 21March 2021

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially the new coronavirus relief bill and stimulus checks, government funding, the latest employment data, housing market reports, mortgage delinquencies & forbearance, layoffs, lockdowns, and schools, as well as GDP. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with a few more articles from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.

Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.

Some of the “economic news” is starting to sound more like ‘business as usual’ rather than relating to Covid, but I did not attempt to sort that out.

Fed Expects to Keep Its Key Rate Near Zero Through 2023 –(AP) – The Federal Reserve foresees the economy accelerating quickly this year yet still expects to keep its benchmark interest rate pinned near zero through 2023, despite concerns in financial markets about potentially higher inflation. With its brightening outlook, the Fed on Wednesday significantly upgraded its forecasts for growth and inflation. It now expects the economy to expand 6.5% this year, up sharply from its previous projection in December of 4.2%. And the Fed raised its forecast for inflation by the end of this year from 1.8% to 2.4% after years of chronically low price increases. The Fed also said it would continue its monthly purchases of $120 billion in bonds, which are intended to keep longer-term borrowing costs low. On Wall Street, investors registered their approval of the Fed’s low-rate message, sending stock indexes higher. And the closely watched yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has surged in recent weeks on inflation concerns, declined slightly. Still, the Fed’s upgraded forecasts raised questions about what would cause it eventually to raise its key short-term rate, which affects many consumer and business loans. As the economy strengthens, the policymakers think the unemployment rate will drop faster than they thought in December: They foresee unemployment falling from its current 6.2% to 4.5% by year’s end and to 3.9%, near a healthy level, at the end of 2022. That suggests that the central bank will be close to meeting its goals by 2023, when it expects inflation to exceed its 2% target level and for unemployment to be at 3.5%, which is where it was before the pandemic struck. Yet it still doesn’t project a rate hike then. At a news conference after the Fed’s latest policy meeting, Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the central bank wants to see substantial improvement in the job market and economy and won’t reverse its low-rate policies based solely on forecasts. Last year, the Fed altered its policy framework to make clear that it would eventually raise rates only after annual inflation had exceeded its 2% target “for some time” – and not just when higher inflation appeared likely.

FOMC Statement: No Change –Fed Chair Powell press conference video here.. FOMC Statement: (excerpt) The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

FOMC Projections and Press Conference – Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. (see tables) Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at a 6% to 8% annual rate in Q1. For the year, from Goldman Sachs “We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021” The FOMC also increased their GDP forecast to 5.8% to 6.6%. GDP for 2023 was revised down. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP: Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.The unemployment rate was at 6.2% in February.Note that the unemployment rate doesn’t remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market. Not only are there 10 million people unemployed, but 4.2 million people have left the labor force since January 2020. And millions more are being supported by various provisions of the various disaster relief acts.The decline in the unemployment rate depends on both job growth, and the participation rate. A strong labor market will probably encourage people to return to the labor force, and the improvements in the unemployment rate might be slower than some expect. The unemployment rate was revised down for all years.Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.As of January 2020, PCE inflation was up 1.5% from January 2020.The projections for inflation were revised up and the FOMC sees inflation above target in 2021.Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1. PCE core inflation was up 1.5% in January year-over-year. Projections for core inflation were revised up.

Dollar falters as Fed dashes early U.S. rate hike view (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve said it does not expect to raise interest rates through all of 2023, contrary to market expectations. The dollar index dropped 0.5% to 91.405 after the Fed comments. The greenback had reversed its slide in recent sessions on a surge in U.S. Treasury yields due in part to growing expectations that the Fed may tighten rates earlier than thought on forecasts of a faster-than-expected economic recovery. U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a 13-month high early in the session but was last at 1.647%. In a statement after the Fed held interest rates steady, the U.S. central bank said it expects a rapid jump in U.S. economic growth and inflation this year as the COVID-19 crisis winds down, and vowed to keep its target interest rate near zero for years to come. That was in contrast to what the eurodollar futures market suggested before the Fed statement, almost fully pricing in a rate hike by December 2022 and three increases in 2023. While the improvement in the Fed’s economic outlook did not immediately change policymakers’ expectations for interest rates, the weight of opinion did shift. Seven of 18 officials now expect to raise rates in 2023, compared to five in December. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in a press conference, also said the U.S. central bank it’s not looking at dates to reduce its asset purchases just yet. Had Powell hinted at possibly tapering its bond buys, that would have caused a much sharper bond sell-off and a further spike in yields which would have pushed the dollar higher. “Bringing forward the median forecast for the first-rate hike into 2023 wouldn’t have fitted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s narrative,” said ING in a research note. “Signalling an earlier move would have given more ammunition for the bond market to push yields significantly higher just when Powell has been indicating his concern that ‘disorderly conditions in markets or a persistent tightening in financial conditions that threatens the achievement of our goals’.”

Powell says central bank digital currency must coexist with cash -Potential central bank digital currencies would need to be integrated into existing payment systems alongside cash and other forms of money, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said. “A recent report from the Bank for International Settlements and a group of seven central banks, which includes the Fed, assessed the feasibility of CBDCs in helping central banks deliver their public policy objectives,” Powell said Thursday in prerecorded video remarks delivered to a payments conference in Basel, Switzerland. “Relevant to today’s topic, one of the three key principles highlighted in the report is that a CBDC needs to coexist with cash and other types of money in a flexible and innovative payment system,” Powell said. The Fed chair was delivering closing remarks to a conference hosted by the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures, a group of central bankers from around the world convened by the BIS. “The COVID crisis has brought into even sharper focus the need to address the limitations of our current arrangements for cross-border payments,” Powell said. “And as this conference amply demonstrates, despite the challenges of this last year, we still have been able to make important progress.”

The Long Term Damage of Economic Downturns – Chairman Powell, Secretary Yellen, and President Biden have recently spoken about the long term consequences for many of economic downturns. More should, more often. The Media should recognize how important this is; ask the question whenever it needs to be asked. The Congress should put this front and center in any and all discussions about economic policy.Why? Because millions of Americans never recovered from 1979-1980. Millions more never recovered from the 2001. More than from either of those never recovered from the recession of 2008. Who didn’t recover? Those who just gotten their first decent job, just taken out a mortgage, just gotten married and started a family, those who had just experienced a family medical emergency, … The types of folks that the likes of Mitch McConnell couldn’t be bothered to bring a bill to the floor for; those.As they say – say way too damned often – through no fault of their own. It usually isn’t. Almost never is. But it sure does keep them in their place and at hand just in case they might be needed by the economy at some point in the future and no one else is available; and they don’t fall so completely as to no longer be useful. For more on this, visit your local homeless encampment.Before, other, homelessness, the consequences often include, not in any particular order; bankruptcy, the broken family, divorce, … Seems, when you are knocked down, it’s hard to get back up. Hard enough the first time. Can’t all succeed, can we?Were you there in 1980 to see the family guy getting caught trying to steal the bag of groceries? When the Market called the cops and had him arrested? When all the engineers quietly lost their jobs, their careers, in 2001? As Hazel sang so eloquently “And they ain’t coming back.”They didn’t. And too many of them wound up divorced, working at the market, … doing anything but engineering, or whatever other career they might have had before.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy – These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. This data is as of March 14th. The seven day average is down 51.1% from the same week in 2019 (48.9% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. OpenTable notes: “we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year.” This data is updated through March 13, 2021. This data is “a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year.” Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining is picking up again. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through Mar 11th. Movie ticket sales were at $21 million last week, down about 89% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting. This data is through March 6th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 20.5% year-over-year (down 26.7% compared to same week in 2019). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021. As of March 5th, gasoline supplied was off about 4.5% (about 95.5% of the same week in 2019). Gasoline supplied will be up year-over-year soon, since at one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY in 2020. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.” This is just a general guide – people that regularly commute probably don’t ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through March 11th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 56% of the January 2020 level. It is at 50% in Chicago, and 59% in Houston (the dip was a weather related decline) – and moving up recently. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. This data is through Friday, March 12th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Movin’ on up! –Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data) are declining, whereas the forecasts of economists are increasing. From Merrrill Lynch: The net positive revisions to retail sales boosted our 1Q GDP tracking estimate up to 7.0%qoq saar from 5.5% previously. [Mar 19 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: [W]e boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 1.5pp to +7.5% (qoq ar) and lowered our Q2 GDP growth forecast by the same amount (to +9.5%). [Mar 16 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.3% for 2021:Q1 and 1.2% for 2021:Q2. [Mar 19 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 5.7 percent on March 17, down from 5.9 percent on March 16. [Mar 17 estimate]

59% of small businesses say health of economy is poor: U.S. Chamber of Commerce — Tom Sullivan, VP of Small Business Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, joins Yahoo Finance’s Kristin Myers to breakdown the U.S. Chamber of Commerce small business report.

Michael Hudson and Paul Craig Roberts: It Is Time To Remove The Debt Barrier To Economic Growth –Out of habit, American economists worry about federal debt. But federal debt can be redeemed by the Federal Reserve printing the money with which to retire the bonds. The debt problem rests with individuals, companies, and state and local governments. They have no printing press. We have explained that the indebtedness of the population means there is little discretionary income with which to drive the economy. The offshoring of middle class jobs lowered incomes, and after paying debt service – mortgage interest, car payments, credit card interest, student loan debt – Americans’ pockets are empty. This situation has been worsened by Covid lockdowns. In the US the federal government has sent out a few Covid payments to help keep people’s heads above water as they face expenses without income. The financial press refers to these Covid checks as “fiscal stimulus,” but there is no stimulus. The Covid checks do not come close to replacing the missing wages, salaries and business profits from lockdowns.Corporations have indebted themselves and impaired their capitalization by borrowing money with which to repurchase their stock. This has built up their debt in the face of stagnant or declining consumer discretionary income. We propose to deal with the debt crisis by forgiving debts as was done in ancient times. Our basic premise is that debts that cannot be paid won’t be. Widespread foreclosures and evictions would further worsen the distribution of income and wealth and further contrain the ability of the economy to grow. Writing debt down to levels that can be serviced would clear the decks tor a real recovery. Income that would be siphoned off in debt service would instead be available to purchase new goods and services. A few economists muttered that we were overlooking the “moral hazzard” of absolving people of their debts. But leaving the economy stagnated in debt is also a moral hazzard. Policymakers did not endorse our proposal, but, in effect, policymakers adopted our policy. However, instead of forgiving the debt itself, they forgave payment of the debt service. Individuals and businesses who cannot pay their landlords or lenders cannot be evicted or foreclosed until June. This doesn’t hurt the lenders or banks, because the loans are not in default, and their balance sheet is not impaired. The banks add the unpaid payments to their assets, and their balance sheets remain sound. When June arrives, the prohibition against eviction and foreclosure will have to be extended as the accrued debt service cannot be paid. Extending the moratorium on foreclosures and evictions will just build up arrears. Is the implication a perpetual moratorium? The question is: If policymakers are willing to forgive debt service, why not just forgive the debt. The latter is neater and clears the decks for an economic renewal.

Janet Yellen’s Plunge Protection Team Has $142 Billion to Play With By Pam Martens – Most Americans are unaware of the existence of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). Together with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) it has morphed into the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s Plunge Protection Team.The ESF was created in 1934 to provide support to the U.S. dollar during the Great Depression. As recently as March 31, 2007, the ESF was fairly modest in size, with assets of just $45.9 billion. Prior to Trump taking office, it had grown to $94.3 billion in assets. But thanks to a fancy maneuver by President Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, the ESF skyrocketed to a staggering balance of $682 billion as of September 30, 2020.Mnuchin was able to give himself this massive slush fund by helping to write the 2020 stimulus bill known as the CARES Act, which handed him $500 billion. The language in the bill said that Mnuchin was to provide $454 billion of the $500 billion to the Federal Reserve to create emergency lending facilities to support the economy during the pandemic. But all Mnuchin ever provided to the Fed was $114 billion. He kept the rest in the ESF. We know that because the Fed has confirmed to us that all it ever received was $114 billion and the Fed’s own financial statements also confirmed that. The official financial statements of the ESF confirmed that it received the full $500 billion from the CARES Act. In addition, this information was confirmed by the Congressional Research Service on December 17 of last year.The Exchange Stabilization Fund is governed by Section 5302 of Title 31 of the U.S. Code. It provides the U.S. Treasury Secretary with the following authorities:”Subject to approval by the President, the fund is under the exclusive control of the Secretary, and may not be used in a way that direct control and custody pass from the President and the Secretary. Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government.” … the Secretary or an agency designated by the Secretary, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities the Secretary considers necessary.” Since stocks and bonds are “securities” in which the Treasury Secretary is allowed to intervene, Janet Yellen now sits atop her own Plunge Protection Team.Since a trading floor at the U.S. Treasury Department might raise some eyebrows, it’s all been handled quietly for years at the trading desk of the New York Fed – photos of which the New York Fed refused to provide to Wall Street On Parade. We obtained our own photo, shown above, from a Fed educational video that provided a brief glimpse of the trading floor.The statutory language above that reads “Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government,” would seem to prevent the Government Accountability Office from conducting an audit of the ESF or for the Treasury’s Inspector General to conduct an audit or investigation. Since members of Congress receive a paycheck from the government, thus making them government employees, the statute would even seem to bar Congress from prying open the doors to this secret trading vault.

The American Rescue Plan – GDP Impact Assessed by Menzie Chinn — Goldman Sachs (Phillips/Briggs/Mericle, 3/13) document some aspects of the American Rescue Plan, signed into law by President Biden.. (see graphic) Goldman Sachs outlines their estimates of the fiscal impulse resulting from the ARP. (see graphic).Peak impact is estimated for 2021Q2, at a 7 percentage point higher level of GDP. This estimate is predicated upon multipliers of a certain size (note interestingly there is little debate over the idea of positive “multipliers”). CBO has made adjustments for social distancing in its previous projections of the CARES act; estimates of fiscal impact on GDP have to be conditioned on expectations regarding the extent of pandemic. GS is somewhat above the WSJ mean forecast, suggesting expectations of a higher package size and/or larger multipliers.Figure 3: GDP actual (bold black), WSJ March survey mean (blue), Christopher Thornberg/UC Riverside Business School (red), Alfred Romero/NC A&T State University (green), Jan Hatzius/Goldman Sachs (orange), CBO estimate of potential GDP (gray), all in billions Ch.2012$, on log scale. Forecasted levels calculated by cumulating growth rates to latest GDP level reported. Source: BEA (2020Q4 2nd release), WSJ surveys (various), CBO (February 2021), and author’s calculations. Interestingly, GS does not foresee a lot of overheating since their estimate of slack is greater than that implied by CBO’s estimate of potential. Graphic Source: Struyven, Hatzius, and Bhushan, “There Is More Slack Than They Think?” Goldman Sachs, February 16, 2021.

The American Rescue Plan clears a path to recovery for state and local governments and the communities they serve – EPI Blog -The passage of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) is a watershed moment for state and local governments. It is an opportunity to undo much of the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and begin to address some of the long-standing inadequacies and inequities caused by decades of disinvestment in public services. Asour colleague Josh Bivens notes, the bill’s $350 billion in aid to state and local governments will critically help many localities fill in for revenue losses, stem budget cuts, and respond – with important flexibility over the next few years – to massively increased fiscal demands caused by the pandemic. Although revenue losses in some states were not as dire as predicted early in the pandemic, state and local governments across the country have, nevertheless, already made massive cuts to their budgets and staffs. These cuts have serious implications for the health of local economies and the quality of life in those communities. In this piece, we document the losses that have already occurred in state and local government workforces and take a closer look at who these workers are and what they do. We also discuss the opportunity that policymakers now have to truly “build back better” and what that could mean for communities throughout the country that were struggling long before the coronavirus appeared. In particular, we show that:

• State and local job cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic have been unprecedented and widespread.
• Most state and local government employees work in education (50.4%). This workforce also provides public services that keep communities healthy and safe.
• Women and Black workers are disproportionately represented in state and local government jobs. Women make up 59.6% of this workforce, compared with 46.6% of the private sector. Black women account for 8.7% of state and local government workers, compared with 6.4% of private-sector workers.
• The American Rescue Plan provides an opportunity for state and local governments to work toward addressing racial inequities and expanding public supports in their communities.

Cuts to the state and local public-sector workforce have been enormous and unprecedented During the COVID-19 pandemic, state and local governments have cut an unprecedented number of jobs. Within the first four months of the crisis, state and local public-sector employment fell by over 1.5 million. As of February 2021, state and local government employment is still 1.4 million jobs (or nearly 7%) below its February 2020 levels, with the vast majority of losses concentrated in education.

Who Exactly Was Rescued? $1 Trillion In Non-COVID-Related “Stimulus” & “Relief” Certainly, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, provided some targeted COVID aid:$473 billion in payments to individuals, $75 billion in cash for vaccines, $26 billion to restaurants, $15 billion to help fund airline payrolls, and another $7.2 billion in Paycheck Protection Program funding for small businesses.The bill also contained about $1 trillion in non-COVID related spending, pork, and policy changes.For example, the original bill included a hike in the minimum wage to $15 per hour. Even the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determined that move would cost the U.S. economy $1.4 million jobs.A quick spotlight on agencies and entities receiving “coronavirus recovery” money in the bill includes:

• $350 billion to bailout the states and the District of Columbia. The allocation formula uses the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2020. Therefore, states like New York and California – who had strict economic lockdown policies and high unemployment – will get bailout money. States like Florida and South Dakota – who were open for business – will get less.
• $128.5 billion to fund K-12 education. The CBO determined that most of the money in education will bedistributed in 2022 through 2028, when the pandemic is over.
• $86 billion to save nearly 200 pension plans insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. There are no reforms mandated while these badly managed pensions are bailed-out. Many of these pension plans are co-managedby unions.
• $50 billion goes to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). A portion of these funds is earmarked to reimburse up to $7,000 for funeral and burial costs related to Covid-19 deaths.
• $39.6 billion to higher education. This amount is three times the money – $12.5 billion – that higher ed received from the massive CARES Act last year.
• $1.5 billion for Amtrak – the National Railroad Passenger Corporation. In FY2020, Congress appropriated $3 billion for Amtrak ($2 billion in annual appropriations, plus an additional $1 billion in the CARES Act COVID relief bill). In the three years before the pandemic, AMTRAK lost $392 million – even after a $5 billion taxpayer subsidy (FY2017-FY2019).

Then there is the money for arts, libraries, and museums.Our auditors found that $470 million in the bill doubles the budgets of The Institute of Museum and Library Services and the National Endowment of the Arts and the Humanities:$200 million in the bill to The Institute of Museum and Library Services (FY2019 budget: $230 million). This agency is so small that it does not even employ an inspector general. $270 million funds the National Endowment of the Arts and the Humanities (FY2019 budget: $253 million) – In 2017, our study showed eighty-percent of all non-profit grant making flowed to well-heeled organizations with over $1 million in assets.If additional COVID relief was needed for testing, vaccines, small businesses, and individuals, then a narrow, targeted, “skinny” bill would have answered the real need.

Biden Stimulus Plan Shores Up Weakest Multi-Employer Pension Plans Rather than Taking on Private Equity Abuses -Yves here. I don’t mean to be hard on Tom Conway, the international president of the United Steelworkers Union. The Democrats have taken organized labor for granted for so long that the gestures made by Biden so far, that of speaking out in favor of interference-free union elections, meaning scolding Amazon, and now shoring up a private pension guarantee fund, must seem like a sea change from the posture of the Democrats under Clinton and Obama. Hence it makes sense for Conway to applaud Biden moving in a better direction. However, his headline, The American Rescue Plan is for Real, is out over its skis.To switch metaphors, just as one robin does not make a spring, so to do are one-off measures not sufficient to change economic and power relationships. Yet the Biden Administration, like the Obama Administration, is committed to preserving the status quo, but is willing to spend bigger to do so.Despite the sweeping headline, the post is entirely about the partial rescues of really sick multi-employer pension plans, yet doesn’t explain clearly what the program is or how it works. Note that there are roughly 1,400 multi-employer plans and about 10% are in bad shape.I had assumed the funds were going to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which backstops these plans but its multi-employer program is projected to run out of money by 2026 or 2027. Instead, as CNBC explained, the $86 billion set aside for these troubled pension schemes will be for grants that go directly to the funds themselves, as opposed to the PBGC. From CNBC: The American Rescue Plan, which now heads to the House, would let certain pensions apply for federal grant funding, which would be used to help pay retirement benefits to workers … . However, 124 multi-employer pensions are in “critical and declining” status, according to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. They’re projected to have insufficient funds to pay full retirement benefits within the next 20 years. About 1 million workers are in such plans, according to the American Academy of Actuaries … Grants offered by the American Rescue Plan would cover full pension benefits for workers in ailing plans over the next three decades. The relief measure would also reinstate any benefits that had been suspended for recipients. This $86 billion rescue will cover over a million workers. For a reference point, CalPERS has about $440 billion for its 1.9 million members and even on its best recent day is only 70% funded. Regardless, Conway fails to mention that a reason so many private pensions have gotten in trouble is the tender ministrations of private equity firms, although the Supreme Court is about to hear an appeal of a 2012 case, decided in favor of Sun Capital, which had upheld Sun walking away from the pension liabilities of a company it bankrupted. Having Congress require investors to make good on the pension funds of the companies they wreck would considerably reduce how many pension funds get hopelessly under water.

Biden begins tour to promote his stimulus package – President Joe Biden kicked off his “Help is Here” tour on Tuesday with a visit to a small business in Delaware County, Pennsylvania, outside of Philadelphia. Biden and other leading figures in his administration are touring the country to promote the recent passage of the $1.9 trillion “American Recovery Act.” The Biden administration has paid a significant amount of attention to the impact of the pandemic on small businesses. It estimates that approximately 400,000 small businesses have closed, with millions more struggling to survive. Biden’s relief package includes a $28 billion grant program to support restaurants and drinking establishments, in addition to $15 billion in flexible grants that can be allocated. Biden is advancing a racialist narrative as a key part of the promotion of his “American Rescue Plan.” He is particularly focusing on minority business owners. On Tuesday, he visited Smith Flooring Inc. in Chester, Pennsylvania, a black-owned business that supplies and installs flooring. In essentially restating Richard Nixon’s program of “black capitalism,” Biden is seeking to consolidate support within affluent sections of the African-American population and other minority groups. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that Biden spoke briefly, mostly promoting his administration’s vaccine program. As part of his pledge to administer 100 million vaccinations within this first 100 days, Biden said he was working to distribute vaccines to pharmacies, community centers and schools in order to better reach minority communities. “People hardest hit are in minority communities,” Biden said. “The rate at which they get COVID is higher, death rate is higher.” Biden told Smith Flooring owners Kristin and James Smith that “more help is on the way.” He added that small businesses would see more relief than was available in the first relief package enacted last spring. Tuesday marked the beginning of a travel blitz across the country. First Lady Jill Biden visited an elementary school in Burlington County, New Jersey on Monday, while Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband were in Nevada. President Biden and Harris will travel to Atlanta, Georgia later this week.

Bill to extend PPP clears House – The House approved a two-month extension of a popular U.S. small-business rescue program that still has almost $93 billion left to distribute, giving companies until the end of May to apply for the forgivable loans. The Paycheck Protection Program was initially set up a year ago as lockdowns stemming from the coronavirus paralyzed the American economy. Lawmakers expanded and extended it as the COVID-19 crisis continued. The House voted 415-3 on a bill extending the PPP for two months from its current expiration date of March 31. The Senate is expected to also approve it, with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer saying Tuesday Democrats “want it to pass as quickly as possible.” The Small Business Administration had approved nearly 7.6 million loans worth more than $687 billion as of March 7. About $92.5 billion remains to be lent. Firms can apply for PPP loans that can convert into grants if the owners spend the money on approved costs, such as worker salaries. Business groups and lenders had urged Congress to extend the deadline to give small businesses more time to apply for the money. Senate Small Business Committee Chairman Ben Cardin, a Maryland Democrat, said that the chamber would try to advance the extension bill with a fast-tracked procedure used for bipartisan, agreed-upon legislation, by seeking unanimous consent. A new round of PPP lending opened up in January after Congress approved more funding in December. Lawmakers then approved an additional $7.25 billion for the program in the latest $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that President Joe Biden signed into law earlier this month. The law also expanded eligibility for some nonprofit groups and online publishers. The latest round allows some businesses to apply for a second loan if they used up their first one, met requirements regarding number of employees and could demonstrate a decline in revenue. However, new forms and exclusive access periods for some small businesses meant that the rollout of the additional funding was slow and some applicants waited for weeks for their financing to be processed.

U.S. pandemic relief program mistakenly paid $692 million in duplicate loans: watchdog (Reuters) – The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) mistakenly paid out $692 million in duplicate small-business pandemic relief loans because of technical errors and other mistakes, the agency’s internal watchdog said on Monday. Lenders participating in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) distributed the cash to 4,260 borrowers who had already received funds due to multiple technical glitches within the SBA’s loan processing systems, which struggled to process the volumes of loans, the SBA Inspector General wrote in a report. Reuters first reported in June that technical snafus had led the SBA to approve thousands of duplicate loans potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Under the program, lenders dish out government-backed loans to small businesses on behalf of the SBA. If borrowers use the funds for intended purposes like keeping staff employed, they keep the money and the government pays the lender back. The watchdog did not say how much if any of the $692 million mistakenly distributed by lenders had subsequently been reimbursed by the government. It initially said it would only guarantee one loan per borrower, meaning lenders, rather than the taxpayer, may be on the hook for the error. Reuters reported in June that lenders had been trying to retrieve duplicate loans from borrowers. In response to Monday’s report, SBA officials said the agency would flag all suspected duplicates for further review, and expected to have the matter resolved by September. The watchdog added it did not see any evidence that borrowers intentionally exploited SBA systems to obtain multiple loans. Amid the frenzied launch of the first-come, first-served program last April, many borrowers applied with multiple borrowers to increase the odds of securing a loan. An SBA computer program meant to detect such duplicate applications failed, the watchdog said. In addition, the SBA system did not detect an application as a duplicate if the borrower’s Social Security number and employee identification number were switched around on the second application.At one point, the number of approved duplicate PPP loans exceeded 40,000, but SBA officials were able to spot and resolve most of those before lenders disbursed the cash, the SBA Inspector General said.

One lucky borrower got 17 PPP loans: How the Trump administration lost millions in an effort to shore up small businesses – Computer errors caused the government to hand out duplicate loans to thousands of borrowers under the Trump administration’s program to rescue businesses from the economic ravages of the coronavirus pandemic.While the Paycheck Protection Program has been subject to fraud, the revelations contained in a new report by the inspector general of the Small Business Administration speak instead to a faulty – and costly – implementation.Aging federal technology may have hampered the SBA’s inability to track and cross-reference loans. Two years ago, the Government Accountability Office found that information systems across the federal government were badly outdated. Some computer hardware at the SBA was a decade old, that investigation found.A series of malfunctions took place in the spring and summer of 2020, resulting in millions of taxpayer dollars being handed out inadvertently as duplicate loans. In all, SBA Inspector General Mike Ware found, banks authorized to issue PPP loans “made more than one PPP disbursement to 4,260 borrowers, which totaled about $692 million and involved 8,731 PPP loans.”Businesses were allowed to apply for PPP loans with several banks; it was the SBA’s duty to make sure that if a borrower had an application before one bank, applications before any other banks were withdrawn. If the SBA did not alert a bank that one of its prospective borrowers had other outstanding applications, that borrower would have no barrier to securing several loans.At least 104 borrowers received three or more loans. One borrower received 17 loans from the federal government, for a total of $1.3 million. It was not clear who that 17-loan recipient was or how the borrower managed to secure so many loans when other prospective borrowers struggled to win a single award through the business-rescue program.An official with the SBA inspector general’s office declined to divulge information about that borrower, or whether the borrower was being i nvestigated by the agency. That official did confirm to Yahoo News that the 17 loans were not separate franchises of a large corporate chain, in which case the loans would have adhered to the program’s guidelines.

Calls grow from lawmakers for IRS to extend filing deadline –A group of more than 100 House members on Tuesday urged the IRS to extend the tax filing and payment deadlines – the latest effort from lawmakers to press the IRS to postpone the April 15 due date. “We respectfully urge you to extend the federal tax filing and payment deadline as Americans, and the IRS, continue to grapple with the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter sent Tuesday to IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig and Mark Mazur, Treasury’s acting assistant secretary for tax policy. Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) took the lead on the letter, which was primarily signed by Democrats. Pascrell serves as chairman of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Oversight, which is scheduled to hold a hearing with Rettig on Thursday. The IRS extended last year’s filing and payment deadlines by three months because of the pandemic, but the agency has not yet taken similar action this year on a national level. Rettig said during a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing last month that extensions back up the IRS and create taxpayer confusion. The lawmakers said that an extension makes sense this year because people continue to face economic, logistical and health challenges due to the pandemic. They also said that taxpayers are still awaiting IRS guidance about tax changes created by recently enacted coronavirus relief legislation, and they noted that the IRS started this year’s filing season later than usual. “Millions of stressed-out taxpayers, businesses and preparers would appreciate an extension of the deadline to file their 2020 tax returns,” they wrote. The lawmakers’ letter comes after Pascrell and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) issued a statement last week calling for the filing season to be extended. The top Republican on the committee, Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), said Friday that the IRS should “seriously consider” an extension.

IRS delays tax filing deadline to May 17 because of COVID-related changes – The IRS said Wednesday it is delaying the April 15 tax filing deadline to May 17 giving taxpayers more time to prepare their filings amid the slew of pandemic-related tax changes. The Treasury Department and the IRS said “the federal income tax filing due date for individuals for the 2020 tax year will be automatically extended from April 15, 2021, to May 17, 2021.” This will happen automatically, and individuals don’t need to file any forms or contact the IRS, the agency said in a statement. “Individual taxpayers can also postpone federal income tax payments for the 2020 tax year due on April 15, 2021, to May 17, 2021, without penalties and interest, regardless of the amount owed,” the IRS said. These changes don’t apply to state tax returns and payments, the IRS noted. The relief does not apply to estimated tax payments that are still due on April 15, 2021, the IRS said. “This continues to be a tough time for many people, and the IRS wants to continue to do everything possible to help taxpayers navigate the unusual circumstances related to the pandemic, while also working on important tax administration responsibilities,” IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig said in a news release. “Even with the new deadline, we urge taxpayers to consider filing as soon as possible, especially those who are owed refunds. Filing electronically with direct deposit is the quickest way to get refunds, and it can help some taxpayers more quickly receive any remaining stimulus payments they may be entitled to,” he said.

Republicans Block Bill To Protect Stimulus Checks From Debt Collectors – Congress won’t block debt collectors from siphoning off stimulus checks anytime soon, after Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) objected Thursday to quickly approving a bill that would protect the $1,400 payments. Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) asked the Senate for unanimous consent to disallow private debt collectors from taking a cut from the checks, which were part of the recent $1.9 trillion stimulus package. “If the Senate doesn’t pass this bill, predatory debt collectors will continue to seize relief payments for anything from credit card payments to medical debt,” Wyden said. Congress blocked debt collectors from seizing the $600 checks authorized by the December relief bill, but Democrats said the Senate parliamentarian disallowed similar protections to be used in the special budget process Democrats used to pass the American Rescue Plan with only 50 votes earlier this month. Toomey said it was Democrats’ fault that the bill lacked the protections, since they should have compromised with Republicans and passed a spending bill that could have gotten 60 votes in the Senate. Toomey also said debt collectors are merely pursuing “valid legal claims” against people who “owe money to someone else and that someone else has gone to court, and it’s been adjudicated.” The bill Toomey blocked would have prevented garnishments by telling the IRS to issue deposits with a signal to banks that they should not honor court orders to hand the money over. It may be too late for most people anyway, as the Treasury Department announced earlier this week that 90 million payments had already been sent. “These payments have already gone out the door,” Toomey said. “The garnishment happens automatically. It’s already happened!” It’s not clear if Democratic leaders want to bother with running the Brown-Wyden bill through the cloture process, which can take several days.

Biden administration continues to jail record number of immigrant children – The number of immigrant children detained by the Biden administration continues to grow as two officials from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Monday plans to hold thousands of teenage boys at a convention center in downtown Dallas. A DHS document obtained by NPR revealed that 4,276 unaccompanied migrant children were being held by the government. The average stay in a camp was 117 hours, far longer than the maximum 72 hours allowed under the law. Another temporary camp in Midland, Texas, originally for oilfield workers, will be opened to jail migrants. Even a former NASA site, Moffett Federal Airfield in Mountain View, California, is being considered by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) as another immigrant detention center. The opening of these new facilities occurs as an influx of refugees and immigrants, many of them unaccompanied children fleeing poverty and violence in Central America, arrive at the US-Mexico border. An estimated 9,400 unaccompanied minors arrived along the border in February, three times the number from last year. Despite being elected in no small part due to the universal revulsion with the Trump administration’s inhumane and xenophobic immigration policies, President Joe Biden is continuing and in fact, expanding the war on immigrants and refugees. The Biden administration is now pushing all adult immigrants, including those with children, back to Mexico on the grounds that they pose a health risk due to the coronavirus. Using the Title 42 provision, immigrants are being denied the right to asylum and the right to a hearing before their deportation. Some 70 percent of the 100,000 immigrants arrested at the border in February were sent back across the border this way. Thousands, including families and unaccompanied children, now languish in squalid camps in Mexico at risk of COVID-19 and other diseases as well as predatory gangs. Children who are “lucky” enough to been penned into an American immigrant camp are now telling court-appointed lawyers that they have not been outside for days and are confined in overcrowded tents. One such camp in Donna, Texas, was only meant to temporarily house 250 people, but now has 1,000 children and teenagers, some as young as one year old. According to lawyers who were allowed to interview just 20 children protected by court settlements, the Border Patrol is holding 40 children to a room in white tents cordoned off by clear, plastic sheets. The 1997 Flores settlement mandates that such inspections be allowed to take place. The children told lawyers how there were not enough mats to sleep on, forcing some to sleep on the ground or a metal bench. Some were forced to stay in their crowded room for the entirety of their stay. The lawyers were not allowed by the Justice Department to go directly to the facility but instead were brought to a portable unit with the 20 children inside.

Cornyn, Cruz to lead Senate delegation to border next week –Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) plan to lead a Senate delegation to the U.S.-Mexico border next week amid an influx of migrants that is creating a real-world and political crisis for the Biden administration. The Texas senators issued a media advisory that they will lead a group of lawmakers to the Rio Grande Valley Area on March 26 to hold a tour of the border and a roundtable with local stakeholders. The tour comes as a surge of migrants and unaccompanied children flock to the border seeking entry to the U.S. as both parties call the situation a “humanitarian crisis.” Reports this week found that 4,200 children are being held in Customs and Border Protection cells designated for adults, a jump of 1,000 from the previous week. Some children are spending an average 117 hours in these facilities despite a 72-hour legal limit. Republicans have amplified attacks on Biden’s immigration policy amid the surge, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) leading a delegation of 12 members on a tour of the border in El Paso, Texas, on Monday. McCarthy, in remarks during the tour, attributed the rise in migrants at the border to the Biden administration’s reversal of former President Trump’s immigration policies and progress on a border wall. He called on Biden to visit the border as he travels the U.S. to tout the recently passed COVID-19 relief package. Biden committed to a more “humane” treatment of migrants after Trump received criticism for detaining children in “cages” during a 2018 surge. But now, the Biden administration is left to try to make room for the increasing number of unaccompanied children. When asked if the living conditions of these children was acceptable, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, “It’s not acceptable, but I think the challenge here is there are not that many options.” “We have a lot of critics, but many are not putting forward solutions,” she said. “The options here are sending the kids back on the journey, sending them to unvetted homes or working to expedite sending them into shelters where they can get treatment by medical doctors, educational resources, legal resources and mental health counseling.”

Trump blames Biden for border crisis –Former President Trump on Tuesday blamed his successor for the burgeoning crisis at the southern border, saying previous progress has been “eroded” under President Biden. In an interview with Fox News Channel’s Maria Bartiromo, Trump argued that his working relationship with Mexico and the partially constructed border wall had acted as deterrents for migrants while he was in office. “We did a lot of things, and all of that is now eroded,” Trump said. “Today, they’re coming in from all foreign countries. … They’re dropping them off, and they’re coming into our country, and it’s a disgrace. They’re going to destroy our country if they don’t do something about it.” The Biden administration is scrambling to accommodate a surge of unaccompanied minors from Central America who have arrived at the southern border seeking entry into the U.S. Reports indicate the federal government now has more than 13,000 young people in custody. Many are being kept in Customs and Border Protection (CBP) cells meant for adults for longer than is legally permissible. Democrats hammered Trump for his own handling of migrant children. Under Trump’s “zero tolerance” policy, children were separated from their parents in an effort to deter families from crossing the border illegally. Democrats also repeatedly criticized Trump for keeping children in CBP cells, where they did not have access to educational, health or legal services. The Biden White House has publicly urged migrants to stay home and not attempt to enter the U.S. But the border surge has shown no signs of abating, and the administration has been searching for answers after allowing thousands of young people to stay in the country as they make their way through the immigration processing system. The administration will reportedly house thousands of young people at a convention center in Dallas and 1,000 more at a tent city outside of Midland, Texas, as it seeks to move young people out of CBP custody. “They’re destroying our country,” Trump said on Tuesday. “People are coming in by the hundreds of thousands. Young people are coming in, and they leave their homes, and they come up because they think it’s going to be so wonderful, and frankly our country can’t handle it. It’s a crisis like we’ve rarely had and certainly we’ve never had on the border, and it’s going to get much worse. … With a little bit of time, you’ll see those numbers expand at a level like you’ve never seen before.”

FEMA official says COVID-19 positivity rate among migrants is 6 percent –The acting chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said Tuesday that under 6 percent of immigrants at the southern border have tested positive for the coronavirus amid growing alarm among Republicans over a spike in crossings. “There’s testing happening,” acting FEMA Administrator Robert Fenton said during a hearing before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security. “What we’re seeing is less than 6 percent positive right now, coming across the border.” The remarks come amid a sharp spike in attempted border crossings. The Biden administration has continued the Trump administration’s policy of turning away migrant adults and families at the border out of concern over the spreading of the coronavirus, though unaccompanied minors have been allowed into the country. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement Tuesday morning that the number of attempted crossings at the U.S. southern border is expected to reach its highest level in two decades. “We are expelling most single adults and families. We are not expelling unaccompanied children. We are securing our border, executing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) public health authority to safeguard the American public and the migrants themselves, and protecting the children. We have more work to do,” Mayorkas said. Republicans have seized on the swell of migrants looking to cross the border, accusing President Biden of adopting lax immigration policies that could fuel coronavirus outbreaks. “The Biden Administration is recklessly releasing hundreds of illegal immigrants who have COVID into Texas communities,” Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) tweeted earlier this month. “The Biden Admin. must IMMEDIATELY end this callous act that exposes Texans & Americans to COVID.” However, the rate of infection among immigrants at the border is lower than in Texas, where the positivity rate is 13.33 percent, according to a tracker by Johns Hopkins University. Migrants who are allowed to cross the border are first tested for the coronavirus. As many as 25,000 people who are awaiting an immigration court hearing were previously forced to remain in Mexico during the Trump administration. Fenton said Tuesday that “anyone that is at risk can be tested by local or state government and FEMA reimburses those costs 100%,” and that FEMA is supporting testing programs in Arizona, California and Texas.

Biden should thank Trump, not blame him, for what he left – Poor Joe Biden. It was his misfortune to inherit one of the technological marvels of our time.Before President Biden took office, the Pfizer and Moderna COVID vaccines had been authorized for use (with another, from Johnson & Johnson, on the way) and were already being administered to people around the country.Typically, it takes 10 years or more to develop a vaccine, but here were two vaccines against a deadly virus that took less than a year from inception to finding their way into people’s arms.And yet, listening to Biden and much of his team, you’d be forgiven for thinking that he had to conjure the vaccines out of nowhere because the Trump administration, in its callousness and incompetence, chose to sit on its hands.Despite his talk of unity and his irenic tone, gratitude hasn’t been a Biden strong suit. He and his officials have blamed President Donald Trump in two areas where they inherited success, the vaccines and the border, and should have been absolutely delighted with their good fortune.When President Trump began promising a vaccine before the end of 2020, no one believed him. The Hill ran a piece headlined “Trump’s new vaccine timeline met with deep skepticism.” NBC News published an article titled “Fact check: Coronavirus vaccine could come this year, Trump says. Experts say he needs a ‘miracle’ to be right.” Similarly, ABC News ran a report titled “Trump promises coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year, but his own experts temper expectations.”Back then, vaccine skepticism, which is now nearly universally condemned, was acceptable at the highest levels of our politics. Asked if she would take a vaccine approved prior to the election, then-vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris said, “Well, I think that’s going to be an issue for all of us.”Now, these same vaccines are a key part of the success story that Biden wants to tell about his response to the pandemic, and so the Trump effort has to be ignored or run down. Biden has referred to “the mess” he inherited, and Harris has said that “in many ways we’re starting from scratch on something that’s been raging for almost an entire year.”Never mind that without Trump’s Operation Warp Speed there wouldn’t be a Moderna vaccine.Or that the Trump administration had contracts for 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, 100 million doses of the Moderna vaccine, 100 million doses of Johnson & Johnson and 800 million doses of vaccine overall. Or that the last day of the Trump administration, 1.5 million people were vaccinated, putting Biden on a pace to easily achieve his supposedly showy goal of 100 million vaccinations in 100 days.

A number of Republican lawmakers are saying no to COVID-19 vaccines –Republicans are at odds over the wisdom and efficacy of taking the COVID-19 vaccine, undermining national efforts to defeat the coronavirus and reinforcing the views of GOP base voters already reluctant to participate in the ramped-up inoculation program. Although the top GOP leaders, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), were quickly vaccinated in December – and encouraged the public to follow suit – a number of high-profile rank-and-file members say they intend to ignore the advice. Some of those holdouts say they’re concerned the vaccine poses a greater health threat than COVID-19 itself. Others have indicated they don’t want to jump ahead of constituents in line for vaccines of their own. And still others note that, because they contracted COVID-19 over the past year, they have the antibodies to fight the disease in the future, precluding the need to be inoculated. “I have not chosen to be vaccinated because I got it naturally and the science of 30 million people – and the statistical validity of a 30 million sample – is pretty overwhelming that natural immunity exists and works,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), an ophthalmologist who contracted the disease last March and does not wear a mask in the Capitol. “I had COVID,” echoed Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who tested positive for it in October. Several other Republicans said that, three months after the vaccine became available to members of Congress, they’re still consulting with their doctors about whether they’ll take it. “I’m still looking at it, I’m listening to my doctor,” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), another COVID-19 survivor and former health care executive who is the chairman of the Senate GOP campaign arm. “In Indiana, it had just recently crossed the threshold, so I was also concerned about not jumping in line ahead of anybody,” said Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.). “But I advise you to get the vaccine, and it looks effective and I intend to.” The hesitancy and muddled messaging arrives as the Biden administration, backed by public health experts, is urging Americans to get a vaccine as soon as they become eligible to do so. The issue, however, has become highly partisan, as a huge swath of Republican voters say they’ll refuse to do so.

Mar-a-Lago partially closed due to COVID-19 outbreak – Former President Trump’s luxury resort club Mar-a-Lago has reportedly been partially closed in response to an outbreak of COVID-19 at the Palm Beach, Fla., property. Sources confirmed to The Associated Press that Mar-a-Lago has been closed until further notice in a cautionary move that follows positive COVID-19 tests. Several workers have reportedly been quarantined. The extent of the outbreak and the identities of those who have tested positive were not immediately made known. Trump and former first lady Melania Trump, who now live at the property, previously contracted the virus last year and have also received their full vaccination for the disease. Further details are not yet known. Those who spoke to the AP did so on the condition of anonymity and were reportedly not authorized to discuss the situation directly. Since Trump left office, the former president and Republicans have used the resort as a meeting place, and parts of the Republican National Committee spring retreat are set to be held there next month. The retreat, which is scheduled to run from April 9 to 11, is expected to draw some of the GOP’s biggest donors to Palm Beach and will feature a speech by Trump, who continues to retain his grip on the party. The party regularly held its donors retreat in Palm Beach during Trump’s presidency, with some events at Mar-a-Lago.

Fed pledges to continue flow of ultra-cheap money to Wall Street – The US Federal Reserve has again provided an assurance to financial markets that it will not increase interest rates any time in the next two years, despite revising upwards its forecast for US economic growth. The median estimate from Fed officials is that the US economy will grow by 6.5 percent this year, up from its forecast of 4.2 percent in December. It also forecasts that inflation will rise to 2.4 percent this year, up from the forecast of 1.8 percent in December and above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. But it insists this will not mean a rise in interest rates. In introductory remarks to a press conference yesterday, following a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy-making body, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “overall inflation remains below our 2 percent long-run objective.” There could be upward pressure on prices due to supply bottlenecks as the economy begins to reopen, he said, but “these one-time price increases are likely to have only transient effects on inflation.” The expectation is that it will decline to 2 percent next year before moving back up again by the end of 2023. To underscore that the Fed is not going to immediately respond to a rise in prices or a fall in the unemployment rate, Powell said the central bank’s goal is for inflation expectations to be “well anchored” at 2 percent. He the Fed expects to “maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy” until its employment and inflation outcomes are achieved. A “transitory” rise in prices “would not meet this standard.” Powell repeated earlier commitments that the Fed’s purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at the rate of $120 billion per month, implemented as a result of the financial market crisis of March 2020, will continue until “substantial further progress” has been made in achieving the Fed’s objectives. “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved,” he said. Forward guidance for the Fed’s base rate and its balance sheet guidance “will ensure that the stance of monetary policy remains highly accommodative as the recovery progresses.” There were some minor indications of a shift among Fed officials towards an increase in rates. Four out of 18 officials indicated that they expected a rise in rates in 2022, compared to only one last December, and seven said they expected a rise in 2023, compared to five in December. Asked at his press conference about a possible “taper” in Fed policy, Powell said that any change in the central bank’s orientation would be signalled well in advance. The Fed’s latest statement appeared to satisfy financial markets, at least for the moment. The S&P 500 index and the Dow closed with modest gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index was also up. There was also a slight decline in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds.

Unbanked stimulus seekers rush to open checking accounts – Banks took heat this week from impatient account holders who want their stimulus money quickly, but there are millions of consumers with an even bigger problem – they have no bank account to receive direct deposits. The Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have been on a mission to get more unbanked consumers to open low-cost checking accounts that offer direct deposit so stimulus payments can be disbursed swiftly and safely under the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan. More than 70 banks and credit unions, which hold nearly half of the nation’s deposits, have joined the effort. A White House senior advisor emphasized the need to reach unbanked consumers by June when expanded child tax credits from the stimulus bill start rolling out. “We need to get those people banked,” Cedric Richmond, a White House senior advisor, said Wednesday at a virtual summit hosted by the American Bankers Association. “As we go into June, when those child tax credit payments will start to come, that’s another time that I think that people having a banking relationship will be important.” The IRS has a link to the FDIC’s website, which in turn connects consumers to a list of those financial institutions that offer low-fee bank accounts along with instructions on how to sign up to receive stimulus payments through direct deposit. Consumers without bank accounts often wait longer to get paper checks or prepaid debit cards in the mail and also tend to pay check-cashing or ATM fees to access their funds. “We are encouraging consumers to think about opening a bank account, [and] many depository institutions are offering bank accounts with no overdraft fees and no-or-low minimum balance requirements,” said Leonard Chanin, deputy to FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams.

Goldman pandemic loans draw scrutiny from Sens. Brown, Warren – The Senate Banking Committee is questioning whether Goldman Sachs Group paid dividends at the expense of lending to businesses and households during the pandemic as lawmakers take a broad look at the support big banks offered clients to get through the economic slump. Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown and fellow Democrat Elizabeth Warren sent Goldman Chief Executive David Solomon a letter late last week, asking how its banking unit made use of a temporary weakening of capital requirements last year, a move regulators intended to spur lending. The lawmakers asked him to produce data on the unit’s lending and on Goldman’s distribution of cash to shareholders. Industry groups “have argued that these reduced capital requirements support lending to small businesses and households,” Brown and Warren wrote, according to a copy of the letter viewed by Bloomberg. “It has also been widely reported, however, that banks are devoting a smaller share of their resources to lending for small businesses and households.” The inquiry is part of a broader debate over whether U.S. banks are offering enough credit to help the economy rebound. As individuals and companies sought loans to get through COVID-19 lockdowns last year, federal regulators temporarily let big banks reduce the amount of capital needed to support their activities. But, by some measures, bank lending declined to record lows as firms piled up cash and securities effectively guaranteed by the federal government, Federal Reserve data shows. “Throughout the pandemic, Goldman has provided a wide variety of financing to all of its clients – from consumer loans, to traditional corporate loans, and equity and debt financing in the capital markets,” company spokesperson Andrew Williams said. “Across all financing categories, volumes were up, and we are proud to have helped our clients and customers through an unprecedented and challenging year.” Goldman’s bank subsidiary last year increased total loans and lending commitments by 10% to $236 billion, according to an annual company report. But deposits, a key source of funding to make loans, increased 29%. That gap is found across the broader U.S. banking system, which increased loans by just 3% even as deposits jumped 22%. Brown and Warren previously criticized federal banking regulators for loosening rules to let big U.S. banks borrow more while simultaneously reducing capital by buying back shares or paying dividends to shareholders. Among their questions for Solomon, the pair asked if Goldman loosened its underwriting to make more loans to borrowers with dings on their credit reports, and whether the bank provided cheaper credit to its customers. They asked him to respond by March 26.

Goldman Sachs Just Landed in the Cross-Hairs of the Senate Banking Committee – By Pam Martens – Goldman Sachs has just come into the cross-hairs of Senator Sherrod Brown, Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and his feisty colleague on that Committee, Senator Elizabeth Warren. The Senators sent Solomon a letter on Friday demanding answers to a series of questions surrounding Goldman’s decision to take advantage of a temporary, weakened capital requirement by federal regulators that was sold to the public as allowing banks to continue to make loans to businesses during the pandemic without being hamstrung by capital restraints. The Senators wanted to know, among numerous other concerns, if Goldman had received a waiver from regulators to continue its dividend distributions to shareholders (in other words, depleting its capital) throughout the pandemic while also availing itself of the weakened capital rule. Goldman paid $1.25 per share as a cash dividend each quarter throughout 2020. Its next declared dividend payment in the same amount is scheduled for payment on March 30.According to Goldman’s most recent SEC filing, it had 345,794,361 common shares outstanding as of February 5, 2021. Using five quarterly dividends of $1.25 per share, by March 30 of this year it will have paid out approximately $2.16 billion in cash to shareholders since its March 30 dividend payment in 2020.Add that $2.16 billion to the $5.4 billion that Goldman paid to settle claims related to its 1MDB bribery scandal and we reach the sum of $7.56 billion that has gone poof from Goldman’s capital since last March. S&P Global reported on January 19 that Goldman’s CFO, Stephen Scherr, announced on an earnings call with analysts on that date that Goldman planned to buy back approximately $1.9 billion of its stock in the first quarter of 2021. Since there’s only 15 days left in this quarter, one might assume most of that money has been spent.The capital rule in question is the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) which impacts only the largest banks and requires that they have capital equal to three percent of their total on-balance sheet assets and off-balance sheet exposures. The weakened rule allowed the banks to exclude holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and their deposits at Federal Reserve banks from their calculation of the SLR. The temporary rule was set to expire on March 31 but lobbyists for the biggest Wall Street banks have been lobbying to have the rule extended.The Senators indicate in the letter that they are singling out Goldman Sachs for this reason:”To our knowledge, Goldman Bank is the only depository institution that opted into these weakened capital requirements whose holding company continued to reduce its capital by paying dividends. We believe your organization has a unique perspective with regard to these rules.”There must be some type of subtlety that we’re missing on the words “opted into,” because two other Wall Street mega banks which, like Goldman, have massive off-balance sheet exposure to derivatives, also took advantage of the weakened rule and continued to pay out their regular cash dividends throughout 2020. Those mega banks are Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase.

Sherrod Brown quickly shifts Senate Banking panel’s course – Less than two months after becoming chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown has flipped the panel’s script. In contrast to the more industry-friendly, GOP-led committee between 2015 and last year, Brown is driving a sharp focus on racial inequality in the financial system and other progressive issues that is arguably more to the left than the priorities of past Democratic chairs. Over a span of less than a month, Brown has gaveled hearings on how to achieve an “equitable recovery” from the pandemic and how the financial system “hurts workers and widens the racial wealth gap.” Two additional hearings scheduled for March will focus on affordable housing and financial risks associated with climate change. On Feb. 25, the committee addressed “rebuilding Main Street” during the pandemic. It is not clear whether the new focus is tied to a legislative agenda or merely to compel regulators to address financial system inequities in bank oversight. Regardless of the intent, observers say the committee’s change in emphasis following the Democrats’ election sweep is palpable. The committee “typically has sort of been, What can we do for the banking industry first, and those benefits will then possibly trickle down to other people?” said Graham Steele, a former adviser to Brown and director of the corporations and society initiative at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. “And Sen. Brown sort of flips that on its head and says: What do people need? And how can the banking system facilitate that?” Of course, not everyone is convinced. Republicans on the panel have not hid their skepticism, expressing concern that the committee under Brown’s leadership could demonize financial companies. The committee’s top Republican, Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, specifically criticized the title of the March 4 hearing, “Wall Street vs. Workers: How the Financial System Hurts Workers and Widens the Racial Wealth Gap.” “The title itself expresses a worldview held by many on the left that capitalism is failing far too many people,” said Toomey. “Do we really think that capitalism and a capitalist financial system is the primary cause of these problems and challenges? … In my view, capitalism ranks with the wheel and written language among the greatest of human achievements.” In a statement to American Banker, Brown said his goal “is to pursue an agenda centered around the dignity of work and equity.” “For too long this committee did the bidding of Wall Street and big corporations,” Brown said. He added, “This committee can make the difference in the lives of Black and brown families by pursuing an agenda that is focused on making sure our government and the economy work for everyone and by ending decades of discrimination and disempowerment fueled by our banking and housing systems.” Yet analysts have struggled to get a clear picture of Brown’s legislative goals, suggesting he is using the hearings more as a messaging tool.

Sherrod Brown takes case for digital accounts to resistant bankers – Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, told an audience of bankers that his proposal to offer free, government-backed digital wallets to all consumers would increase the number of banks’ customers. Brown’s comments at an American Bankers Association virtual conference on Wednesday come at a time when industry trade groups have largely opposed his plan to widely offer FedAccounts digital wallets. Bankers have been pushing for the government to leave consumer banking to the private sector. “One way we can get people in the doors of your banks, one way we can rebuild people’s trust, is through my plan on FedAccounts,” Brown said. “These will be no-fee bank accounts available to every American at a post office or a small bank or credit union backed by the Federal Reserve,” he added. “These would be basic accounts. You already have the infrastructure in place to support them.” Brown said, if signed into law, the government would reimburse small banks as they implement FedAccounts. “For small banks, the Fed would reimburse you for the operating costs,” Brown said. “You would be building new customers.” For months, Brown has touted his proposal to offer all consumers FedAccounts digital wallets, made available through the U.S. Postal Service and community bank branches. The proposal is intended to bring unbanked and underbanked groups into the banking system and make it easier for consumers to access government stimulus payments. Industry trade groups have largely opposed the proposal, arguing that the U.S. Postal Service is not equipped to offer banking services and that banks already have the ability to offer affordable accounts to underbanked consumers. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said he strongly opposes Brown’s FedAccounts proposal. “I would have to work very hard for a long time to come up with a worse idea than having the government become a national bank executed through the post office,” Toomey told conference attendees. “I’m pretty sure I got a Christmas card last week,” Toomey added. “It was postmarked for December. So we’re going to have these folks managing our money? … It’s ridiculous. It’s a very bad idea. If this gets any kind of traction at all, I will be fighting this very, very aggressively.” Brown, meanwhile, had some criticism of the banking industry in his remarks. “People don’t trust banks. They especially don’t trust the biggest banks,” he said.

Fed nears decisions on key capital break, shareholder distributions – The Federal Reserve is days away from announcing a decision on capital relief that big banks have been pushing for the central bank to extend past the end of March, said Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed last April announced a one-year easing of the supplementary leverage ratio, a measure of capital strength, for bank holding companies with more than $250 billion of assets. It was followed the next month by similar moves from other agencies for banks under their watch. The Fed will “have something to announce on that in the coming days,” Powell said on a possible extension of the relief during a Wednesday press conference after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, but he declined to elaborate further. The supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, is an extra cushion imposed on the biggest banks, measuring their capital against their entire balance sheets. The temporary steps announced last spring allowed banks to exclude Treasuries and reserves held at the Fed from the SLR calculation, enabling them to expand their balance sheets and help the support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Banks have argued the relief should remain in place as they continue to respond to economic need resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, but prominent Democrats – including Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown – have pushed regulators against prolonging the exemptions, arguing that banks should be conserving capital. The Fed is also “a couple of weeks away” from announcing a decision on bank dividends and share repurchases for the second quarter of this year, said Powell. Between June and December, banks could not repurchase shares and had to limit dividends to what they paid out in the second quarter of 2020. Those restrictions were eased in January, with dividends and buybacks capped at amounts tied to average quarterly income in 2020. Powell had previously said the Fed would consider the pace of coronavirus vaccinations, along other factors, in deciding whether to lift its restrictions at all.

Banking regulators will let temporary capital relief expire as scheduled – Banking regulators will let the temporary capital relief provided to banks at the outset of the pandemic expire at the end of March as scheduled, a setback for the banking industry and a win for Democrats. The Federal Reserve last spring allowed bank holding companies subject to the supplementary leverage ratio to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and deposits at Federal Reserve banks from the measure of capital relative to assets. Bloomberg NewsThe Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency later joined the Fed in providing the same relief to banks, though accompanied with restrictions on shareholder payouts. The exemptions were meant to free up resources to make loans and to enable banks to absorb an influx of Treasurys, but received pushback from some who expressed concern about banks shedding capital in the middle of a crisis. Prominent Democrats, including Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have argued that a further capital reprieve is inappropriate as long as banks continue to pay dividends to their shareholders. “The banks’ requests for an extension of this relief appear to be an attempt to use the pandemic as an excuse to weaken one of the most important … regulatory reforms,” put in place after the financial crisis, Brown and Warren said in a Feb. 26 letter to the heads of the agencies. Though the Fed is not extending the SLR exemptions, the central bank said Friday that it would seek comment shortly on potential ways to permanently adjust the leverage ratio in conjunction with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The Fed also said it is in discussions with the Treasury Department and other regulators to “on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.” The SLR might need to be recalibrated over the long run in order to account for the high growth of deposits and the Fed’s continued asset purchases, the Fed said in a news release, adding that it wants to be sure that the leverage ratio wouldn’t “constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.” However, senior Fed officials said that any potential changes to the SLR would not diminish the strength of current bank capital requirements.

Report- Nearly half of all credit unions at increased risk of cyberattack – Roughly half of all credit unions and more than half of their vendors could have critical vulnerabilities in their technology that leave them at increased risk of cyberattacks. That’s according to a new report from Black Kite, a firm that creates cyber risk-rating profiles. The company analyzed the cybersecurity positions of 250 federally insured credit unions and 150 vendors that serve the industry. The biggest risks, the company said, include vendor weaknesses, a lack of email security and out-of-date computer systems. Cyberattacks on credit unions could result in financial risk ranging from $190,000 for small credit unions to over $1.2 million for larger institutions, according to the report. “Credit unions are entrusted with the livelihoods of their members. With great trust comes great responsibility to mitigate cybersecurity vulnerabilities, whether they are internal or via a third-party,” Bob Maley, chief security officer for Black Kite, said in a press release. “It is clear that the financial impact of cyber vulnerabilities for both credit unions and their vendors is significant, and resources need to be targeted to protect members and address the most costly areas of risk.” Black Kite found that as many as 86% of credit unions and 76% of vendors have had at least one employee credential leaked onto the dark web. Leaked credentials are used to deploy ransomware and other sophisticated cyberattacks. “At the end of the day, thousands of members’ sensitive information can be at risk due to a simple vulnerability,” the report said. The company gave credit unions and industry vendors an average grade of a “B,” meaning breaches would require the skills of “persistent, highly experienced hackers.” The report went on to recommend that credit unions closely monitor and keep track of sensitive data shared with each vendor, classify vendors according to their industry or the services they provide, and include the number of sensitive records shared with vendors as parameters in their risk-management methodology.

U.S. small businesses are holding off the debt apocalypse. For now – Government relief programs and lenders’ forbearance have kept U.S. small businesses from defaulting on their debt en masse as revenue slumped during the pandemic crisis, according to a new analysis. Among small firms nationwide, 18.3% of business payments were past due in January, a modest increase from 17.7% in February 2020, the Urban Institute said in a report using Dun & Bradstreet data. Somewhat more affected were two big cities on the coasts, New York and San Francisco, which saw increases of 2.5 and 4.3 percentage points, respectively. For now, businesses are sitting on enough cash to pay their bills. Cash balances were up as much as 41% at their peak in late August, as the federal Paycheck Protection Program pumped out forgivable loans to keep small firms afloat. Those balances were still up by 35% through late September, according to data from the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Meantime, business owners have cut their expenses, often by slashing payrolls, and many lenders and landlords have been lenient with rent and other bills. Despite the relatively strong credit metrics, the future remains uncertain for a sector that employed almost half the country’s private workforce and was a growth engine of the economy before COVID-19 hit. “Shrinking payroll, reducing physical space, and other accommodations are painful for small businesses and may constrain their ability to grow,” the Urban Institute, a nonprofit research group, said in its report. “It’s also unclear what will happen when creditors cease to offer flexibility for businesses on repayment of their built-up amounts owed.”

Visa, Mastercard to delay merchant fee hikes another year –Visa and Mastercard are postponing plans to boost the fees U.S. merchants pay when consumers use credit cards online, pushing back the changes another year to April 2022 because of the pandemic. “Visa is committed to maintaining stability in our payments system and will not make any future rate changes in the U.S. for another year while the economy recovers,” the company said in an emailed statement. Retailers have been asking both networks in recent months to delay hikes in so-called interchange fees, hoping to avoid a jump in costs for accepting cards at a time when consumers are especially reliant on online shopping. The companies’ plans have drawn attention from Sen. Dick Durbin, the Illinois Democrat who previously helped limit fees on debit card transactions. “We urge you to call off these planned fee increases,” Durbin wrote in a letter this month to the card networks’ chief executive officers. “Our nation is still reeling from the ongoing pandemic.” As part of its delay, Mastercard said it’s also pushing back plans that would have caused some bricks-and-mortar retailers, along with convenience stores and supermarkets, to see higher rates. The network vowed that it would “continue to be thoughtful” about the timing of implementing the changes.

Bipartisan Senate bill would raise loan maturity limits for FCUs – A bipartisan bill introduced Tuesday would amend the Federal Credit Union Act to raise maturity limits for non-mortgage loans at federal credit unions from 15 years to 20 years. The bill, known as the Expanding Access to Lending Options Act, was sponsored by Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Tim Scott, R-S.C. The pair introduced similar legislation last year, and another bill to extend loan maturity limits was introduced in the House in 2019. “The coronavirus pandemic has underlined the need for several reforms to ensure credit unions can provide products and services that meet members’ needs, and providing the [National Credit Union Administration] flexibility for maturity products and removing restrictive requirements on certain loans is a step in the right direction,” Dan Berger, president and CEO of the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Union, said in a statement. The proposed legislation, “will help create more opportunities for those seeking opportunities to access affordable credit options and grow their financial future,” Jim Nussle, president and CEO of the Credit Union National Association, said in a separate statement. The NCUA finalized a rule in 2019 reforming rules on loans and lines of credit, and indicated at the time it would continue reviewing comments on other issues related to maturity limits, NAFCU noted. However, the agency’s authority only goes so far, and some changes – including those proposed in the new bill – require amendments to the Federal Credit Union Act. Earlier this month, members of the House of Representatives introduced a bipartisan bill to provide some exemptions from limits on member business lending for credit unions making loans that help with the economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis.

First-time homebuyer credit could bring 9.3M renters into the market — The Biden administration’s plan for a first-time homebuyer tax credit could boost homeownership potential in most large metropolitan areas, according to a study Zillow released Tuesday.In 40 out of the 50 biggest metros, an average 27.4% of renters could afford a monthly payment equal to one-third of their income for a local median-priced home if they received a credit of up to $15,000 for a down payment. The finding, which is based on an analysis of the amount of renters who would be able to obtain a 30-year Federal Housing Administration loan with a 3% interest rate and 3.5% down, could help lenders that are looking to offset waning refinancing with more purchase activity find more borrowers. The credit could open homeownership up to as many as 9.3 million, according to Zillow. Renters generally save an estimated 2.4% of their income yearly, so it would typically take 14 years to save for $15,000 for a down payment, according to the study.A tax credit would do the most for more affordable markets like Pittsburgh, where 40% could attain a median mortgage with it. In a more costly market such as Los Angeles, only 10.1% of renters would theoretically be able to buy a home using an FHA loan.Because the shortage of affordable housing and credit score eligibility could be issues in qualifying, there may be some unintended consequences. Credit availability has generally been relatively tighter during the pandemic.”Even though a tax credit for first-time homebuyers would likely stimulate minority homeownership, it could still disproportionately benefit white and Asian Americans who are better positioned to buy because of better access to credit and higher incomes,” Alexandra Lee, an economic analyst at Zillow, said in a press release.Temporary homebuyer tax credits that Congress passed during the Great Recessionincreased housing activity in the short term but did not have a lasting effect on the market, most studies show. If a similar Biden tax credit moves forward, the result may be the same.

MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.14%” — Note: This is as of March 7th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.14%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 5.20% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.14% as of March 7, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans….”One year after the onset of the pandemic, many homeowners are approaching 12 months in their forbearance plan. That is likely why call volume to servicers picked up in the prior week to the highest level since last April, and forbearance exits increased to their highest level since January. With new forbearance requests unchanged, the share of loans in forbearance decreased again,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Homeowners with federally backed loans have access to up to 18 months of forbearance, but they need to contact their servicer to receive this additional relief.”Fratantoni added, “The American Rescue Plan provides needed support for homeowners who are continuing to struggle during these challenging times, and stimulus payments are being delivered to households now. We anticipate that this support, along with the improving job market, will help many homeowners to get back on their feet.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, then trended down – and has mostly moved slowly down recently.The MBA notes: “Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained the same relative to the prior two weeks at 0.07%.”

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased – Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of March 16th. From Black Knight: Forbearances Fall Below 2.6m For the First Time Since April 2020: Servicers continue to work through the large volume of scheduled March month-end expirations, which led to a decline in the number of active forbearance plans (down 16,000/-0.6%). About 620,000 active plans remain with March month-end expirations, roughly half of the 1.2 million such plans entering this month. This week’s declines were driven by improvements among both GSE (-13,000) and FHA/VA plans (-8,000), while active plan volumes rose among portfolio/PLS mortgages. All in, as of March 16, there are now 2.59 million active forbearance plans, representing 4.9% of all active mortgages. This marks the first time since early April 2020 that the number of outstanding forbearance plans has edged below 2.6 million. Keeping in mind those 620,000 mortgages in forbearance with March expirations, the extension and removal activity will be worth keeping a close eye on through the final two weeks of the month and into early April. We’ll post another forbearance update next Friday, March 26. The number of loans in forbearance has declined slightly over the last few months.

Housing Starts decreased to 1.421 Million Annual Rate in February – From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,421,000. This is 10.3 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,584,000 and is 9.3 percent below the February 2020 rate of 1,567,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,040,000; this is 8.5 percent below the revised January figure of 1,136,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 372,000.Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,682,000. This is 10.8 percent below the revised January rate of 1,886,000, but is 17.0 percent above the February 2020 rate of 1,438,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 10.0 percent below the revised January figure of 1,270,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 495,000 in February. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in February compared to January. Multi-family starts were down 29% year-over-year in February. Single-family starts (blue) decreased in February, and were up less than 1% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in February were well below expectations, and starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined.

Comments on February Housing Starts – McBride – Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.421 Million Annual Rate in February. It appears the poor weather in February impacted housing starts – the largest declines in starts were in the South and Mid-West regions. Single family starts were up 38% year-over-year in the West (not impacted by poor weather). Permits (unaffected by the weather) were up 17% year-over-year, and were up solidly in the South and Mid-West. Total housing starts in February were below expectations, and starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined. Single family starts decreased in February, but were still up slightly year-over-year. The volatile multi-family sector is down significantly year-over-year (apartments are under pressure from COVID). The housing starts report showed starts were down 10.3% in February compared to January, and starts were down 9.3% year-over-year compared to February 2020. Single family starts were up less than 1% year-over-year. Low mortgage rates and limited existing home inventory have given a boost to single family housing starts, but weather limited single family starts in February. The first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2020 (blue) and 2021 (red). Starts were down 9.3% in February compared to February 2020. The year-over-year comparison will be easy in March, April and May. 2020 was off to a strong start before the pandemic, and with low interest rates and little competing existing home inventory, starts finished the year strong. Last December, I noted: “Don’t be surprised if starts are down year-over-year sometime over the next two months.” So this year-over-year decline in total starts was not a surprise, especially given the harsh weather in February. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession – then mostly moved sideways. Completions (red line) had lagged behind – then completions caught up with starts- then starts picked up a little again late last year, but have fallen off with the pandemic. The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion – so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Single family starts are getting back to more normal levels, but I still expect some further increases in single family starts and completions on a rolling 12 month basis.

New Residential Building Permits: Down 10.8% in February – The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.682M was down 10.8% from the January reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.750M.Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report, including a note regarding revisions: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,682,000. This is 10.8 percent (plus/minus 1.0 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,886,000, but is 17.0 percent (plus/minus 1.4 percent) above the February 2020 rate of 1,438,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 10.0 percent (plus/minus 0.8 percent) below the revised January figure of 1,270,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 495,000 in February. [link to report] Here is the complete historical series, which dates from 1960. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included. Here is the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau’s mid-month population estimates show substantial growth in the US population since 1960. Here is a chart of housing starts as a percent of the population. We’ve added a linear regression through the monthly data to highlight the trend. The extreme volatility of this monthly indicator is the rationale for paying more attention to its 6-month moving average than to its noisy monthly change. Over the complete data series, the absolute MoM average percent change is 4.4%. The MoM range minimum is -24.0% and the maximum is 33.9%.

February declines in housing permits and starts: another likely effect of the Big Texas Freeze – Housing is an important long leading indicator. What we see now in mortgage applications, new home sales, permits and starts is informative of what the economy will be like 12+ months from now in 2022. The headline numbers for both permits and starts for February, released this morning, were both poor, off -10.8% and -10.3%, respectively. The temptation is to say, “higher interest rates, We’re DOOOMED!!!” Not so fast. In context, the declines were well within normal month to month variation, and at least some of the declines looks like more fallout from the Big Texas Freeze that we saw yesterday in industrial production and retail sales. Here is the headline graph covering the last 5 years for both starts (blue) and permits (red): Two things are of interest here: (1) note that starts fell much more than permits, similar to what happened in the last two winters; and (2) while typically permits lead starts by a month or two, this decline in starts began *before* permits. Neither of these facts are conclusive, of course, but they do suggest an external reason for the pattern – e.g., an outsized winter “event” in February. I’ve also separated out the South Census Region that includes Texas from both permits and starts in the other three Census Regions (Northeast, Midwest, West) combined in the below two graphs. First, here’s permits: Note that while both declined, the Southern region had the bigger one. Now, here’s starts: Again, note the outsized declines in the other three regions including both northern ones in the last two winters, that hasn’t occurred this year. Put another way, the decline in the South, including Texas, was a *relatively* outsized one. Finally, here is the above regional data for starts shown as a month over month % change: As I wrote above, February’s declines are hardly noteworthy as monthly declines from the perspective of monthly changes in the past five years. And the February decline in starts in the South this year is bigger than that of the other three regions combined, unlike the last several winters. I don’t want to oversell this, because the above information is hardly conclusive. But all of this information suggests that, while interest rates most likely did affect at least permits in February, the bigger reason for the relatively big declines in permits and starts was the closure of government offices and inability to undertake new construction in Texas and other nearby areas affected by the Big Freeze.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 82 in March – The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 82, down from 84 in February. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Higher Material Costs, Interest Rates Lower Builder Sentiment: Despite high buyer traffic and strong demand, builder sentiment fell in March as rising lumber and other material prices pushed builder confidence lower. The latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) shows that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 82 in March.Though builders continue to see strong buyer traffic, recent increases for material costs and delivery times, particularly for softwood lumber, have depressed builder sentiment this month. Supply shortages and high demand have caused lumber prices to jump about 200 percent since last April.Builder confidence peaked at a level of 90 last November and has trended lower as supply-side and demand-side factors have trimmed housing affordability. While single-family home building should grow this year, the elevated price of lumber is adding approximately $24,000 to the price of a new home. And mortgage interest rates, while historically low, have increased about 30 basis points over the last month. Nonetheless, the lack of resale inventory means new construction is the only option for some prospective home buyers….The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 87 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 83. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers held firm at 72.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 80, the Midwest fell one point to 80, the South dropped two points to 82 and the West posted a three-point loss to 90. This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.This was slightly below the consensus forecast, but still a very strong reading.Housing and homebuilding have been one of the best performing sectors during the pandemic.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Highest in a Year; Down 26% Compared to Same Week in 2019 — Note: Starting this week, the year-over-year comparisons are easy – since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic – but occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels.The occupancy rate is down 25.8% compared to the same week in 2019. Kelsey Fenerty at CoStar also suggests comparing to 2019: Indexing to 2019 Provides Better Hotel Performance Comparisons From CoStar: STR: US Occupancy Reaches Highest Level in a Year With Pandemic Comparisons: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached its highest level in a year, according to STR’s latest data through March 13.

March 7-13, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2020):

Occupancy: 52.1% (-1.4%)

Average daily rate (ADR): US$102.62 (-14.5%)

Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$53.45 (-15.8%)

Year-over-year percentage changes are now more favorable as comparisons have shifted to pandemic-affected weeks from 2020. When indexed against 2019 levels, the U.S. has recaptured between 70-75% of occupancy in recent weeks.Florida, lifted by Spring Break and Bike Week, was most represented among the leaders in week-to-week occupancy gains. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020). Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting.

Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 64% YoY in January – From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Continued COVID impacts and the resulting absence of conventions and major tradeshows such as CES, World of Concrete, etc., translated to significant YoY declines in Jan visitation, occupancy and ADR. Las Vegas hosted roughly 1.3M visitors in Jan 2021, down -63.5% YoY.Total occupancy for Jan improved MoM to 31.6% from 30.9% in Dec but was down from 85.9% in Jan 2020. While Weekend occupancy (48.3%) improved slightly MoM over Dec 2020, the temporarily dormant convention segment resulted in Midweek occupancy at 22.5%, down -61.3 pts YoY. Average daily rates among open properties reached $90.71 (down -40.9% YoY) while RevPAR came in at approx. $28.66, down -78% vs. Jan 2020.The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).Visitor traffic was down 63.5% year-over-year.The casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 97% of rooms have now opened).Convention traffic was non-existent again in January, and was down 100% compared to January 2020. There has been no convention traffic since March 2020.

Retail Sales Decreased 3.0% in February – On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 3.0 percent from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.3 percent from February 2020. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $561.7 billion, a decrease of 3.0 percent from the previous month, and 6.3 percent above February 2020. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 3.5% in February. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 7.0% on a YoY basis. The decrease in February was well below expectations, however sales in January were revised up.

US Retail Sales Collapse In February, Online Sales Plunge – After the huge surge in January, analysts expected retail sales to shrink MoM in February (and BofA’s credit card data signaled a disaster) and it did – by far more than consensus expected. Retail sales tumbled 3.0% MoM in Feb, far more than the 0.5% drop expected and the biggest drop since April’s collapse… The Control Group – which is used for GDP – plunged 3.5% Source: Bloomberg There appear to be three reasons for huge retail sales miss: 1. payback from the stimulus-induced gain in January; 2. delayed tax refunds; 3. Winter blizzard. Interestingly, non-store retailer sales plunged 5.4%… All categories were down except food and beverage (unch) and Gas Stations (+3.6%)

US Drivers Burning More Gas — After a year of getting pummeled by the coronavirus, U.S. oil demand is bouncing back — and this time it looks like it’s here to stay. Retail gasoline sales rose last week to just 1% below year-ago levels, just before regional lockdowns brought fuel consumption to a crawl, Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy said on Twitter. Gasoline’s recovery comes on top of a diesel rebound that started last fall as consumers began to rely on home-delivery services like Amazon.com Inc. more than ever. Even jet fuel is looking up with newly vaccinated passengers eager to fly after a year of restrictions. With new coronavirus infections falling to a record low last week and vaccination efforts ramping up, this latest demand rebound comes with a lower threat of being set back again by new outbreaks. The timing couldn’t be better for the oil industry that relies on the busy summer driving season to buoy profits. It could mark a huge turnaround for fuel suppliers that since last spring had struggled with the weakest seasonal consumption in more than 20 years. Demand “will continue to improve with warmer weather and reopenings and things getting back to normal, coupled with pent-up demand,” said Trisha Curtis, chief executive officer at oil analysts PetroNerds in Denver. “We definitely see some bright spots with vaccine uptake.” The drag on jet fuel is showing signs of cracking. Air passenger numbers hit a 12-month high on Friday. Global seat capacity has improved to 39% below a year ago, compared with an annual deficit of 41% a week earlier, and 44% the week before that, data from air traffic consultant OAG Aviation shows. That’s happening as newly vaccinated Americans are preparing to take to the skies again for summer vacations. Green shoots are emerging elsewhere as well. Industrial output in China surged in the first two months of the year, underscoring its rapid economic rebound. The country processed more than 14 million barrels a day of crude in the first two months of the year. Still, the recovery is just beginning. Restrictions on schools and businesses vary regionally. One-off events can also hamper the rebound, such as last weekend’s blizzard in Colorado and Wyoming that triggered power outages and forced flight cancellations. Many businesses, including BP Plc, will allow office staff to continue to work from home two days a week, throwing into question if U.S. gasoline demand will see a full recovery this year.

Gasoline demand rebounds to nearly normal March levels, according to latest GasBuddy data – U.S. gasoline demand is approaching normal levels as Americans once again hit the road amid the economic recovery and the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. Demand is just about at normal March levels and continues to tick higher, according to the latest data from GasBuddy. Thursday’s demand was 17.5% higher than the average of the four prior Thursdays. “It’s been an impressive rebound in the last few weeks of demand and I continue to be surprised every day,” noted Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. He said that apart from one Sunday, every day since Feb. 20 has seen positive percentage growth. There are many factors that drive gas demand, of course, one of which could be people driving long distances for Covid-19 vaccines. Spring break could also be a driving force. The data showed that demand this past Thursday was 1.8% higher than the final Thursday before Covid lockdowns went into effect in 2020. The data is not seasonally adjusted, however, and February does tend to be the weakest month for gas demand. More consumers hitting the road combined with a draw in gasoline stocks has led to a jump in prices. “On average, Americans are paying 14% more to fill-up compared to February,” Jeanette McGee, AAA spokesperson, said in a statement Monday. “With increased demand and tighter gasoline supplies, we are looking at more expensive pump prices with little relief in the weeks ahead.” On Friday the national average for a gallon of gas stood at $2.886, up 69 cents or 31.4% from a year ago, according to AAA.

China books 1.16 mil mt of US corn, first big flash sale in weeks | S&P Global Platts – Chinese buyers booked 1.16 million mt of US corn for delivery in the 2020-21 marketing season, the first such large daily flash sale reported since January, the US Department of Agriculture said March 16. This takes China’s total commitments for US corn to a record 19.89 million mt in 2020-21. The US corn 2020-21 marketing year started in September 2020 and will run through August 2021. Of the total commitments, China has so far shipped in 7.41 million mt, also a record. The last time China bought US corn in such quantities was in 2012-13 when US corn shipments to China hit 5.15 million mt, according to USDA data. USDA reports export sales data on a weekly basis, while daily flash sales are only reported when sales of a commodity cross a specific threshold. For corn, export activity must be reported if daily sales are above 100,000 mt. The last such large daily sales of US corn were reported Jan. 29, when China booked 2.11 million mt of corn. The sales followed just after a day when exporters reported corn sales of 1.7 million mt to China. The US corn export shipment program has remained steady, but grain markets were looking for more large sales for direction after lackluster sales to China seen in recent weeks. US corn inspections for global destinations hit 2.20 million mt in the week to March 11, the largest since 1989, according to the USDA. Meanwhile, markets have been largely focusing on the weather in South America as various analysts report record production numbers in the midst of growing concerns around low yields. Corn crop conditions have dropped in Argentina, while planting of the second corn crop in Brazil has been delayed.

LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in February — Note1: Import traffic was heavy in February – ships were backed up waiting to unload in LA. “some vessels are spending almost as much time at anchor as it takes to traverse the Pacific Ocean.” Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 3.0% in February compared to the rolling 12 months ending in January. Outbound traffic was down 1.3% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 52% YoY in February, and exports were down 15% YoY.

Industrial Production Decreased 2.2 Percent in February – From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization:In February, total industrial production decreased 2.2 percent. Manufacturing output and mining production fell 3.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively; the output of utilities increased 7.4 percent. The severe winter weather in the south central region of the country in mid-February accounted for the bulk of the declines in output for the month. Most notably, some petroleum refineries, petrochemical facilities, and plastic resin plants suffered damage from the deep freeze and were offline for the rest of the month. Excluding the effects of the winter weather would have resulted in an index for manufacturing that fell about 1/2 percent and in an index for mining that rose about 1/2 percent. Both indexes would have remained below their pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels. At 104.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in February was 4.2 percent lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 1.7 percentage points in February to 73.8 percent, a rate that is 5.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972 – 2020) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still below the level in February 2020. Capacity utilization at 73.8% is 5.8% below the average from 1972 to 2020. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in February to 104.7. This is 4.2% below the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.

Big (weather related) declines in February production and sales –This morning we got the most important single metrics for both the consumer and producer side of the economy for February, respectively, retail sales and industrial production. Both were big misses, one explicitly and the other likely due to the big freeze in Texas and neighboring States. Let’s turn to production first. Total industrial production declined by -2.2% in February, while manufacturing production declined -3.1%. Both of these were the first declines of any significance since last April: Before the DOOOMERS go screaming, “Double-dip!” however, here is the what the Fed itself had to say about this report: The severe winter weather in the south central region of the country in mid-February accounted for the bulk of the declines in output for the month. Most notably, some petroleum refineries, petrochemical facilities, and plastic resin plants suffered damage from the deep freeze and were offline for the rest of the month. Excluding the effects of the winter weather would have resulted in an index for manufacturing that fell about 1/2 percent and in an index for mining that rose about 1/2 percent. Because manufacturing is the biggest component of the report, even without the Big Texas Freeze the total index probably would have declined, but by something less than -0.5%. Since in January the total index rose a revised 1.1%, the combined January-February number would still be positive, and the highest since the onset of the pandemic last March. A similar dynamic was present in the retail sales report, although the Census Bureau explicitly does not take weather into account. Nominal retail sales declined -3.0%. After adjusting by the CPI, real retail sales declined -3.4%. Here’s what the last 2.5 years including February look like: Of course winter occurs every year, but if and when a particularly bad stretch happens might be in December one year, January another, and February still another. So the below graph shows the unadjusted as well as the seasonally adjusted percentage change each month for the same time period. Note that January and February each year, combined, show the steepest month over month decline: If you look at the unadjusted numbers, it’s pretty clear that January this year had the least decline of the last 5 years, while February’s was the worst. So the below lists the combined January + February declines for the previous 5 years and compares them with this year: Of the 5 previous years, only 2020 was better than this year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the combined January-February period this year still showed a gain of 3.7% from December, which would be the highest total since the pandemic started. In conclusion, don’t sweat these two declines. Ex-the Big Texas Freeze, both production and sales probably did decline, but only slightly, and real retail sales for the two month period combined absolutely rose.

Plastic Prices Hit Record High to Stoke Inflation Concerns – – For anyone looking for examples of inflation these days, raw materials are a good place to start. Copper, steel — even lumber — are either near or at record highs. And so too are plastics, which are often overlooked but are on a tear right now. Although they’re the building blocks of thousands of everyday products, plastics and their chemical ingredients don’t trade on major commodity exchanges, and large price moves are largely invisible to the wider world. Yet polyvinyl chloride, or PVC, is in the midst of a dramatic rally, driven by a combination of rebounding global consumer demand and production outages from last month’s Texas freeze. More than 60% of U.S. PVC is still offline nearly a month after freezing weather hit Texas and Louisiana and decimated the power grid, according to ICIS, a data provider. U.S. export prices have nearly doubled to a record high of $1,625 a tonne over the past year. PVC is a major construction material used for pipes, cable insulation, flooring and roofing, and the U.S. has become the world’s biggest exporter of the plastic in recent years. But PVC is just the tip of the iceberg: prices of polypropylene, used for packaging consumer goods, are at record levels and more than double the 2019-2020 average, according to ICIS. The cost of high density polyethylene, used for shampoo bottles and grocery bags, is at the highest since 2008. “Today we don’t have enough volume to even meet the needs of the domestic customers” never mind exports, said Bob Patel, chief executive officer of chemicals giant LyondellBasell Industries NV, referring to polyethylene. “I think we’ll be well into the fourth quarter before we see conditions back to normal,” he told the JPMorgan Industrials Conference this week. Even before the freeze, the industry was struggling to rebound from back-to-back hurricanes last year, meaning the supply shortfalls will have knock-on effects both domestically and around the world, not least in a housebuilding sector already under pressure from skyrocketing lumber prices. The supply constraints also come just as the U.S. government is unleashing a new round of stimulus and demand for consumer goods is surging, adding to concerns around higher inflation. The bottlenecks are already becoming evident in plastics. Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. are reducing production of vehicles across North America due in part to the shortage of petrochemicals in their supply chains, the Japanese car giants said this week. Production lines and potentially entire plants are expected to be temporarily halted for several days in Kentucky, West Virginia and Mexico, Toyota spokeswoman Shiori Hashimoto said Wednesday. Petrochemicals account for more than a third of the raw material costs in the average vehicle, according to ICIS. The car industry is also struggling due to a shortage of semiconductors.

Philly Fed Mfg Index: Continued Strength in March – The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index.The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 51.8, up 28.7 from last month’s 23.1. The 3-month moving average came in at 33.8, up from 19.6 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 61.6, up 22.1 from the previous month’s 39.5.The 51.8 headline number came in above the 23.0 forecast at Investing.com.Here is the introduction from the survey:Manufacturing conditions in the region strengthened further this month, according to firms responding to the MarchManufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for general activity and new orders rose sharply, and the shipments and employment indexes also increased. Price pressures also rose, according to the surveyed firms. All of the survey’s indexes for future conditions increased, as the firms indicated more widespread optimism about growth over the next six months. (Full Report) The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011, 2012, and 2015, and a shallower contraction in 2013. The contraction due to COVID-19 is clear in 2020.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 770,000 – The DOL reported: In the week ending March 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 770,000, an increase of 45,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 13,000 from 712,000 to 725,000. The 4-week moving average was 746,250, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 3,250 from 759,000 to 762,250. This does not include the 282,394 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 478,914 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 759,000.The previous week was revised up.Regular state continued claims decreased to 4,124,000 (SA) from 4,142,000 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.Note: There are an additional 7,615,386 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 8,387,969 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 4,815,348 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,456,080. Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

BLS: January Unemployment rates down in 33 States – From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary: Unemployment rates were lower in January in 33 states and the District of Columbia and stable in 17 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-eight states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier and two states had little change. The national unemployment rate, 6.3 percent, fell by 0.4 percentage point over the month, but was 2.8 points higher than in January 2020. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 20 states, decreased in 2 states, and was essentially unchanged in 28 states and the District of Columbia in January 2021. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 48 states and the District and was essentially unchanged in 2 states. … Hawaii and California had the highest unemployment rates in January, 10.2 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively, while South Dakota and Utah had the lowest rates, 3.1 percent each. Hawaii is being impacted by the lack of tourism.

New York City Lost a Record 631,000 Jobs to the Pandemic in 2020. So What’s Next? – The statisticians closed the books Thursday on the jobs lost in New York City in 2020: 631,000, the largest one-year decline since reliable statistics began being compiled after World War II. The damage has been so great that local experts on the city’s economy see a difficult effort over several years to regain those positions, whose loss has brought pain to legions on top of a COVID-19 death toll that just passed 30,000, hitting the most vulnerable New Yorkers hardest. The economic impact has also proved disparate, with sectors like tourism upended, even as Wall Street prospers. Predictions for the city’s long-term and short-term prospects, meanwhile, are in flux as news of vaccination progress mixes with a host of unknowns. Still, the passage of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion federal aid bill – dubbed the American Rescue Act – has other economists sharply raising their forecasts of how much the national economy will grow this year. Mayor Bill de Blasio and some local executives agree. “This now supercharges our recovery,” the mayor said Monday as passage of the bill seemed certain. “This is the thing we needed.” The single-year plunge in employment, measured from December 2019 to December 2020, is more than the 620,000 jobs that disappeared in the city’s “Great Recession” that lasted from 1969 to 1977 under mayors John Lindsay and Abe Beame. The severe downturn following the 1987 stock market crash totaled 350,000 jobs lost. And jobs dipped by 227,000 in 2001-2003 after the dot.com bubble burst and 9/11. The city brushed off the Great Recession that followed the 2008 Financial Crisis with a relatively modest decline of 138,000 jobs. Like the 1969-1977 crisis, one sector accounts for a significant portion of the losses. Then it was manufacturing, which shed 400,000 jobs. This time it is leisure and hospitality – which includes the food and lodging industries – that has seen 250,000 jobs disappear, a little more than half of those that existed at the beginning of 2020. By total jobs lost, the other hard-hit areas include professional and business services (89,000), education and health services (69,800) and retail (67,100). In percentage terms, leisure and hospitality is followed by manufacturing, transportation and retail.

Maryland’s Republican governor issues order dropping majority of state’s COVID-19 restrictions – Last Tuesday, Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan announced the issuing of an executive order lifting most restrictions put in place a year ago in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The order, which went into effect at 5 p.m. on Friday, is the most far-reaching reversal of social distancing measures in the mid-Atlantic region, which includes Maryland, Delaware, Washington D.C. and Virginia. The order allows restaurants, bars, retail businesses, gyms and religious establishments to operate at full capacity, and concert halls and arenas at half capacity. The order also lifted quarantine requirements for out of state travel. The official reason given by Hogan was that the state had managed to administer 1 million vaccine doses and has a declining daily case count. When the restrictions were first put in place, there were fewer than 1,000 active cases in Maryland. Since then, nearly 400,000 people have been infected, and almost a thousand people are being infected daily. While the number of new cases per day has declined sharply from the peak of over 3,200 in mid-January, this trend has stopped with the seven-day moving average hovering around 800 for the past three weeks. Overall, Maryland has had over 390,000 cases, and over 8,000 dead. One million vaccines represents less than a sixth of the state’s population, far short of what is necessary to prevent the spread of the virus. Hogan also admitted that the available national supply of vaccines will remain flat for at least two more weeks. The reopening order blindsided county officials who were not consulted before the decision. Montgomery County Council President Tom Hucker (Democrat-District 5) described the order as “shocking and reckless,” adding that it was “a complete slap in the face to local authority.” In the fall, Hogan intervened in the populous suburban Washington D.C. district to force private and religious schools to provide in-person learning, contravening his own health adviser’s rulings.

Billions of dollars are due at the end of the month; Kansas regulators to decide how much of it will hit your utility bills –You thought your natural gas bill was bad following last month’s arctic blast. Just try paying the one sitting on the desk at the Tulsa headquarters of One Gas Inc. One Gas is the parent company of Kansas Gas Service, one of the largest gas utilities in the state. To meet its customers’ gas needs during the polar vortex, the company spent $2.2 billion on natural gas purchases in February. That’s approximately four times more than the company spends on natural gas in an entire year. To put that another way, one nasty, approximately two-week weather event caused a company to make the equivalent of four years worth of natural gas purchases.Something stinks in the natural gas industry. “This whole episode should be giving the entire country a gut-check moment,” said David Springe, a consumer watchdog who leads the National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates. “We should back up, look at our assumptions and look at how we have planned for the future.” Ultimately, consumers are likely to pay for that very high-priced gas. The numbers were nearly as eye-popping for several other natural gas utilities that serve Kansas. Atmos Energy, which has territory in parts of Douglas County, spent $2.5 billion in February, which was about three times its typical spend for an entire year. Black Hills Energy, which is the major gas provider for Lawrence, reported to Wall Street and state regulators that it had about $600 million of unexpected natural gas expenses for the month.

Illinois advocates, lawmakers look to restore regulatory oversight of gas utility surcharges – – Advocates and lawmakers have reintroduced legislation that would end a special gas utility surcharge that allows companies to raise customer bills in order to pay for infrastructure development with limited regulatory oversight.The gas utility surcharge, known as the Qualified Infrastructure Plant, became law in 2013 after similar formula rate legislation that benefited utility giant Commonwealth Edison was passed.House Bill 3941, sponsored by Rep. Joyce Mason, D-Gurnee, and accompanying Senate Bill 570, sponsored by Sen. Ram Villivalam, D-Chicago, would phase out the surcharge by the end of 2021. It is otherwise not set to expire in 2023. By ending the program, the legislation would restore traditional oversight of rate hikes. Advocates say the existing QIP charge allows for gas utility companies such as Ameren Illinois, Nicor Gas and Peoples Gas to bring in revenue at a faster pace than it would with traditional regulations.Before QIP was implemented, utility companies would spend money on their infrastructure and have to go before regulators that would approve the spending before the utility companies could start collecting it back from customers.Now with the surcharge in place, a company can begin collecting costs before having to justify the rate increases to regulators.”The costs have just gone out of control,” Abe Scarr, state director of Illinois Public Interest Research Group, said. “The utilities have incentive to spend as much money as they can because it’s basically a guarantee that they’ll get it back and guaranteed profits, and they like that. So, what we’re seeing over time is these three utilities are spending way more money through this surcharge than was originally planned.”

For Entergy customers trying to dispute bills and get answers, ‘it’s hell,’ they say – For more than a year, Brittany Ellis tried to find out why her Entergy New Orleans bills had suddenly soared at the Mid-City duplex where she lives and works. In January, she finally wrote to an obscure City Hall office that is supposed to act as a last resort for residents hoping to resolve disputes with their utilities, including Entergy: “After hours of calls with Entergy, emails to the mayor and numerous council members, and reaching out to the office of Alliance for Affordable Energy, I was directed to reach out to you as well – which I also did back in September without response.” She went on to detail her year-long story of being led on a kind of endless circle dance – one that is familiar to many people who have sought to navigate large bureaucracies such as Entergy but can never seem to get a straight answer. Ellis’s case predates the recent spate of customer outrage over sharp spikes in winter Entergy bills, which the utility put down to colder weather, high natural gas prices and various other causes. Instead, her experience reflects a more fundamental problem vexing many small businesses, retail customers and advocates such as the Alliance for Affordable Energy: Entergy’s lack of transparency about inexplicable charges, high bills and poor service, and the lack of recourse available to ordinary people trying to resolve a dispute. Utility oversight has long been a thorny issue in the United States, which has a patchwork system that varies widely from state to state in terms of regulators’ authority. The topic rose to the top of the public agenda after the recent winter freeze in the South, especially in Texas, where the near-collapse of the energy system already has led to the resignation of the Public Utilities Commission chairman, who in turn called on other energy company officials and politicians to resign. In Louisiana, the New Orleans City Council regulates Entergy New Orleans and the state Public Service Commission regulates Entergy Louisiana. Both have opened investigations into outages and billing related to the freeze. The council’s Utilities Committee is set to meet Tuesday, where Entergy is expected to address recent outages. Both regulators have joined their counterparts in Arkansas in a complaint to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. It seeks, among other remedies, a refund of more than $70 million just for New Orleans customers, out of a total $361 million it estimates Entergy overcharged customers in the three jurisdictions from 2016 to 2020 for power from its Grand Gulf nuclear power plant. The complaint process is expected to take two to three years. However, none of the regulators’ initiatives so far seeks explicitly to address the core problem that Ellis and many other customers face.

Texas diner will add $50 to bill of any patron who needs to be told to wear a mask. There’s a new sign in the window of Legends Diner in Denton, Texas. It reads: “Our new surcharge. $50 if I have to explain why masks are mandatory” and “$75 if I have to hear why you disagree … “From Dallas News: Legends Diner joins hundreds if not thousands of restaurant owners in Dallas-Fort Worth who are continuing to wear masks and asking their customers to do the same. Our team of reporters found that customers and restaurant workers were mostly masked the day the mandate lifted in Texas.RESTAURANT NEWSThe LaCombes got the idea to hang the “surcharge” sign after seeing a shop in Oregon post its own sign. People have been “lining up to take pictures of it,” Wayne said.So far, no one has been charged $50 or $75 for not complying with the Denton restaurant’s mask rules. But he’s ready to use it if he needs to.

Miami Beach declares state of emergency amid crowds of spring breakers – Miami Beach, Fla., declared a state of emergency Saturday over concern about large crowds of spring breakers gathering in the city. Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber (D) said during a news conference Saturday that new measures will be implemented that are “essentially purposed to reduce the number of people” coming to the area. Gelber announced an 8 p.m. curfew in the Entertainment District, and a restriction of east-bound traffic on city causeways that will only be accessible to residents and hotel guests. The measures go into effect at 9 p.m. Saturday, and will remain in effect for 72 hours. Gelber said he will hold an emergency meeting with the City Commission on Sunday to address the measures. The city later posted the emergency order to its Twitter account. According to the order, these actions are separate from those that the city has put in place to combat COVID-19. The news comes as photos from the area show crowds of people who have flocked to the city and gathered on its beaches, ignoring COVID-19 protocols. Miami Beach’s interim City Manager Raul Aguila said Saturday that he’s received emails from businesses that have voluntarily closed or don’t want to open due to the crowds. The state of emergency marks a point of escalation in the issue following reports of rowdy spring breakers this month. Gelber told CBS News that hundreds of spring breakers had been arrested for ignoring the city’s coronavirus guidelines, and that police officers had been injured trying to handle the crowds. “If you’re coming here because you think anything goes, you’re going to have a terrible time. We’re going to arrest you. We’ve made hundreds and hundreds of arrests,” Gelber said at the time. Police had to disperse a crowd of about 200 spring breakers that were “unruly” and surrounding officers by an intersection by shooting pepper balls. The Miami Beach Police Department said at the time that several people were detained and two officers were injured.

New York City moves to reopen high schools as dangerous COVID-19 variants spread – Nearly a year after educators forced New York City public schools to close by threatening to conduct wildcat sickout strikes as the coronavirus began its deadly spread, Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio is moving forward with plans to resume in-person learning on March 22 at the district’s 488 high schools. The reopening occurs under conditions in which more transmissible variants of COVID-19 now make up the majority of active cases in the city. Well before de Blasio’s official announcement on March 8, the United Federation of Teachers (UFT) indicated that it is collaborating with the mayor in opening buildings to high school students. UFT president Michael Mulgrew told a meeting of the union’s Executive Board, “We are in conversations about high school openings. We have a formula and know how many people we need.” Mulgrew and the UFT apparently do not have a formula for how many educators, school staff, students and parents will become sick or die from exposure to the coronavirus in the coming weeks and months after being sent back to school buildings. To date, over 30,000 people in New York City have died from COVID-19, while the total number of cases stands at 773,306. As of Sunday, the seven-day average citywide test positivity rate was 6.4 percent and much higher in many working class neighborhoods. The positivity rate in Ozone Park in Queens, for example, was 12.6 percent. De Blasio’s senior adviser for public health, Dr. Jay Varma, announced on Wednesday that 51 percent of cases in the city were attributable to the B.1.1.7 and B.1.526, variants, first discovered in the United Kingdom and in the Manhattan neighborhood of Washington Heights, respectively. Varma said the city’s preliminary analysis suggests that B.1.526, spreads more quickly than the wild type of the virus, and that it may be similar in infectiousness to B.1.1.7, which has become the dominant variant throughout Europe in the past several months.

Chicago Teachers Union, school district announce plan to reopen high schools on April 19 – On Tuesday, Chicago Public Schools (CPS) officials informed parents and staff of district plans to reopen high schools for in-person classes beginning April 19, the first day of the fourth quarter term. The announcement was made in a message crafted with the close collaboration of Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) President Jesse Sharkey. Even with COVID-19 positivity rates and case numbers rising in the city again following the resumption of in-person learning in elementary schools and the lifting of restrictions on business activity, high schools are to be reopened in line with the demands of Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and President Biden. The message, jointly signed by CPS CEO Janice Jackson and Chief Education Officer LaTanya McDade, is aimed at drumming up support from parents for in-person schooling, among whom it is widely unpopular. Just 29 percent of elementary school parents have chosen the option to return to classrooms. Parents have until March 19 to make their decision about whether their children will attend in-person or continue learning remotely. Though K-8 students have been back since March, CPS have released no data on the actual number of students who have returned for in-person learning. Tuesday’s communication from the district leaders indicates that CPS is planning to bring back high school students “at least two days per week.” At two days per week, this would mean high school students, in exchange for putting themselves, their families and friends at risk of contracting the virus, would each experience a mere 18 days of in-person learning before the end of the school year in June. Jackson and McDade claim in their message, “Following the successful reopening of our elementary schools as well as new guidance from the Biden Administration that supports bringing students back to classrooms, we know we can safely resume in-person high school instruction as long as the right plan is in place.”

K-12 schools identified as largest source of COVID-19 infections in Illinois -Reopened schools in Chicago and throughout Illinois have become the largest source of COVID-19 infections in the state. Despite the demonstrated ability of schools to drive disease spread, school officials and politicians are aggressively pushing to get as many students as possible back into buildings for the fourth quarter term beginning April 19 – just in time to fulfill the Biden administration’s promise to reopen schools in his first 100 days in office. According to contact tracing data from the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH), schools in Illinois are now the number one potential exposure location for COVID-19, accounting for 21.6 percent of cases reported to the state or local health departments. This is more than double the next-largest category, Business or Retail, which comes in at only 9.9 percent. Notably, this figure does not include colleges, universities or daycare facilities. Although there has been a mountain of propaganda from the media, schools and public health officials portraying in-person learning as low-risk or even safe, there have been 10 officially counted school outbreaks across the state, defined as five or more positive cases where exposure may have occurred on school grounds. Additionally, IDPH lists 1,099 schools with potential exposures, outside of Chicago Public Schools (CPS), which are not included in this total. For the week ending March 12, CPS reported 12 cases at 10 schools, sending 42 into quarantine, including four separate learning “pods.” These numbers are largely in line with data from other parts of the country and world. In Michigan, K-12 schools have also become the largest source of outbreaks, with childcare and youth programs coming in third. According to recent reports, Sweden shows a 123 percent increase in cases for children 0-9 and a 72 percent increase in children 10-19 since January. Underscoring the dangers involved in the pseudo-scientific “herd immunity” strategy in the context of a virus that can mutate, the more infectious B.1.1.7 variant now accounts for 50 percent of COVID-19 infections in Stockholm.

COVID-19 cases in Ohio schools nearly double in wake of forced reopenings -Between March 1 and March 7, reported COVID-19 cases among students and faculty in Ohio’s K-12 schools reached 3,058, nearly double the figure reported the previous week of 1,773 cases. The spike in cases came just two days before Republican Governor Mike DeWine’s March 9 false pronouncement that “victory is in sight” in the fight against the virus. Since January, DeWine has pushed for all Ohio schools to open no later than March 1. During the governor’s address held on the one-year anniversary of Ohio’s first COVID-19-related death, the governor officially named the date a “Day of Remembrance” to honor the 17,662 Ohioans who have lost their lives and the nearly one million who have tested positive in the last year. DeWine failed to mention whether March 9 is only meant to honor those who have already died or tested positive for COVID-19, or if it will also include those who will die or test positive now that schools have been forced open and all public safety measures are being lifted. Elementary school students in Godley, Texas, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2020. (AP Photo/LM Otero) His speech was similar to the speech last week by Biden, who has pushed for a return to face-to-face learning across the country within his first 100 days in office. The reopening of schools has taken place amid the emergence of more contagious and deadly variants of COVID-19 and continued warnings by leading virologists that the US could be headed for a massive surge in cases. The governor has aggressively pressured districts to reopen schools, including through the manipulation of access to the vaccine. Without a district superintendent’s commitment to reopen full-time, in-person school by March 1, or at least have a plan in place to do so shortly thereafter, no Ohio public school employee would qualify for the vaccine in that district, except those already meeting the age or health requirements. A joint January letter to the governor’s office by the presidents of several state teachers unions, including Columbus Education Association, Cleveland Teachers Union, Cincinnati Federation of Teachers, Toledo Federation of Teachers, Akron Education Association, Dayton Education Association, Canton Professional Educators’ Association and Youngstown Educational Association – representing eight of Ohio’s top nine most populous cities and all but one with a Democratic mayor – decried DeWine’s methods, saying the governor “coerced” school reopenings. The letter stated, “We are disappointed that Governor DeWine has decided to use the distribution of a life-saving vaccine as a bargaining chip, holding this precious commodity hostage while pitting parents, administrators, teachers, and other school workers, and students against each other.” While issuing denunciations, the teachers unions refuse to mount any collective action by their members. Further, their letter goes on to downplay the significance of DeWine’s action, stating, “Luckily, schools don’t open up just because a Superintendent signs a letter; schools open when teachers, staff, and parents collectively decide it is safe to do so.”

More contagious strain of COVID-19 detected in Aspen student – – Pitkin County health and Aspen school officials are awaiting the results of roughly 30 to 35 COVID-19 tests given Friday to mostly lower-grade elementary students and two teachers to see if they are afflicted with a more contagious variant of the coronavirus. Pitkin County Public Health administered Friday’s tests after a student at the elementary school tested positive for what is suspected to be a variation of the coronavirus, resulting in the quarantine of two classes. The result is some 30 families with elementary school children are in quarantine, according to Superintendent David Baugh. The student is believed to have the B117 variant, which was first found in the U.K. in December. The student has symptoms but did not require hospitalization. The test from the student with the suspected variant will be further analyzed this weekend at a state lab for confirmation. The B117 strain is believed to transmit more easily – 30% to 35% higher, Pitkin County epidemiologist Josh Vance said Friday afternoon – but its long-term health risks remain unknown. It would be the first time a student at the district has been known to have a strain of the coronavirus; Pitkin County has one confirmed variant case so far, Vance said. That case is unrelated to the one at the school, he said.

CDC relaxes distance requirements in schools from 6 to 3 feet – The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday relaxed physical distancing requirements for children in school, from 6 feet to 3 feet – a change aimed at allowing more students to be inside classrooms.The recommendations come with a few caveats. Teachers and other adult school staff must still adhere to the 6 feet guidelines, and face coverings remain mandatory.”These recommendations are specific to students in classrooms with universal mask wearing,” CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a briefing Friday.The change comes amid a massive push to get kids back in the classroom, from lawmakers to parents.Multiple studies have shown increases in depression and anxietyamong children during the pandemic. And a survey from NBC News and Challenge Success, a nonprofit affiliated with the Stanford Graduate School of Education, found lower stress levels among students who have been able to spend time in the classroom, compared with peers who are virtual learning exclusively. “The benefits of in-person instruction are well-recognized,” Walensky said. “School should be the last place to close and the first place to open.”For elementary school students, the CDC now recommends a physical distance of 3 feet. The same rules apply to middle and high school students, unless they live in an area where Covid-19 is spreading at a high rate, in which case distances of 6 feet should be maintained. And for all students, no matter the rate of community spread, distances of 6 feet should still be followed in settings where masks cannot be worn, such as lunchtime, the CDC said, as well as during activities like choir, band or intense sports that involve greater exhalation. Those activities should take place outdoors or in large, well-ventilated spaces when possible.

Growing anger against Biden administration’s mandate for standardized tests during pandemic — Last month, President Biden’s Acting Assistant Education Secretary Ian Rosenblum sent a letter to state education administrators instructing them that standardized tests had to be administered to students in some form this spring, summer or fall. Rosenblum – whose previous job was executive director of the Education Trust-New York, a pro-standardized testing and pro-business organization – said states could delay the tests but they could not be canceled like last spring and they have to be conducted as soon as possible. The spring testing window for state tests, including the PSAT and SAT, typically given to high school juniors and seniors preparing for college, has already started in the United States. The states of Michigan, California, Illinois, Georgia, New Jersey and New York requested testing waivers for the 2020-2021 school year in December and January. Others, such as Texas, Tennessee, Florida and Indiana, are testing students regardless of the Biden administration’s decision. Rosenblum, who currently heads the Education Department’s Office of Elementary and Secondary Education, claimed the tests were needed to “address the educational inequities that have been exacerbated by the pandemic, including by using student learning data to enable states, school districts, and schools to target resources and supports to the students with the greatest needs.” This is nothing but a political cover. Testing is being tied to school reopenings, with the push for standardized testing coinciding with the Biden administration’s plans to open up all K-8 schools by the end of April. “President Biden’s first priority is to safely re-open schools and get students back in classrooms, learning face-to-face from teachers with their fellow students,” Rosenblum wrote. “To be successful once schools have re-opened, we need to understand the impact COVID-19 has had on learning and identify what resources and supports students need.” He added, “We must also specifically be prepared to address the educational inequities that have been exacerbated by the pandemic, including by using student learning data to enable states, school districts, and schools to target resources and supports to the students with the greatest needs.” Standardized tests have been among the greatest stressors to the nation’s children, teachers and families since they were aggressively scaled up under the Bush administration’s No Child Left Behind (NCLB). These tests have been used to systematically defund public schools for the past two decades, and mandating them during a pandemic should be deemed cruel and unusual punishment.

Fewer kids are going to college because they say it costs too much – A year into the coronavirus crisis, many high school seniors have dramatically changed their expectations about the future. A recent survey of high school students found that the likelihood of attending a four-year school sank nearly 20% in the last eight months – down to 53%, from 71%, according to ECMC Group, a nonprofit aimed at helping student borrowers. High schoolers are putting more emphasis on career training and post-college employment, the report found. More than half said they can achieve professional success with three years or less of college, and just one-fourth believe a four-year degree is the only route to a good job. ECMC Group polled more than 1,000 high school students three times over the last year. Even before the pandemic, families were starting to question the return on investment, said Jeremy Wheaton, ECMC Group’s president and CEO. “There is going to be a reckoning here.” The price tag increasingly is a problem. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $50,770 in the 2020-21 school year; at four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $22,180, according to the College Board, which tracks trends in college pricing and student aid. The significant increase in the cost of college has outpaced both inflation and – even more starkly – family income over recent decades. After experiencing the sharp economic slowdown brought on by Covid, a majority of students and parents now say affordability and dealing with the debt burden that often goes hand-in-hand with a degree is their top concern, according to The Princeton Review’s 2021 College Hopes & Worries survey. For college-bound students and their parents, a whopping 98% of families said financial aid would be necessary to pay for college and 82% said it was “extremely” or “very” necessary, The Princeton Review found. A majority of high school students also said they are now applying to colleges with lower sticker prices. Another third said they were applying to colleges closer to home. The Princeton Review polled more than 14,093 people: Roughly 80% were college applicants, and 20% were parents of applicants. Students dream of going off to college, said Robert Franek, The Princeton Review’s editor-in-chief and author of “The Best 385 Colleges.” “But, in fact, so many will stay within a three-hour drive.”

College Admission Season Is Crazier Than Ever. That Could Change Who Gets In. – WSJ — Ivy League schools and a host of other highly selective institutions waived SAT and ACT requirements for the class of 2025, resulting in an unprecedented flood of applications and what may prove the most chaotic selection experiment in American higher education since the end of World War II.The question hanging over higher education this month is whether this influx will permanently change how colleges select students and, ultimately, the makeup of the student population.Interviews with college-admissions officials and public and private high-school counselors point to an epic effort behind the scenes to make tough judgment calls at the highest speed. Colleges send out the bulk of their decision notices in March and early April, but it won’t be widely known how the incoming freshman classes will look until late summer or early fall. Added to the uncertainty will be whether students who deferred enrollment during the last admissions cycle will decide to enter school this year.Harvard University received more than 57,000 freshman applications for next fall’s entering class, a 42% year-over-year jump. Yale, Columbia and Stanford universities were so overwhelmed they also pushed back the date to announce admission decisions. The University of Southern California’s applications pool beat the prior record by 7%. And New York University topped 100,000 applications, up 17% from last year.With less focus on standardized tests scores, which numerous studies have shown are correlated with family wealth, that could mean accepting more low-income students from under-resourced high schools. Colleges say that without SAT or ACT results they’ll give greater weight to teacher recommendations and signs of intellectual curiosity, and judge candidates in the context of their environments.The pandemic “is calling on us to walk the talk,” when it comes to thinking more broadly about assessing applicants, said Lee Coffin, vice provost for enrollment and dean of admissions and financial aid at Dartmouth College. Dartmouth saw a 33% rise in applications after it waived standardized test scores this year. Mr. Coffin says he is conflicted about going test-optional. Before the pandemic Dartmouth considered standardized test scores to be among the most important information alongside grade point average, essays and class rank. Seeing strong scores helps his team feel more confident that admitted students could cut it at the Ivy League institution. “It becomes a moral question,” he said. “I don’t want to admit someone who is going to struggle.”

Further evidence of the perils of US college reopenings – A recent article published in the science journalism web site Science News,“How 5 Universities tried to handle COVID-19 on campus: Fall semester was the start of a big experiment,” shows that in-person education remains a breeding ground for the spread of the pandemic. It lays out much of the growing evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads easily through indoor and community living. Science writer Betsy Ladyzhets found a 56 percent increase in COVID-19 cases during the three-week period of in-person instructions in comparison to the three weeks before, when the universities offered remote learning. The piece also found that in the same counties where universities offered remote learning, COVID-19 cases dropped by almost 18 percent. The author states, “With these kinds of risks, a college campus seems like one more dangerous place to spend time.” The author looked at five large universities: University of Wisconsin, Madison; North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University; University of Washington, Seattle; Colorado Mesa University; and Rice University in Houston, Texas. Data was extracted from university staff self-studies and university dashboards during the fall semester of 2020. Growth in new daily cases on a 7-day rolling average supported the evidence that in-person instruction increased COVID-19 virus spread significantly. Some universities experienced late-semester peaks in infection from Halloween parties while others from surges in nearby cities. Each of the schools failed to fix the spread of the virus, even at the University of Washington, where the student and staff population was a fifth the normal level. Levels rose despite all schools cobbling together some type of mandatory PCR testing and mandating mask-wearing and restrictions on public gatherings. A large number of these efforts were initiated by the student “health ambassadors” to protect themselves, their friends and teachers, and loved ones at home. This high risk is further corroborated by an analysis reported in Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering on January 13, 2021, which showed that at 30 large universities COVID infections spiked in 14 colleges within 14 days of class, with seven-day incidences well above 1,000 per 100,000, an order of magnitude larger than nationwide peaks of 70 and 150 during the first and second waves of the pandemic. The danger is not only to college students, but to surrounding communities. In December, the New York Times reported that infection rates have risen faster than the national average in counties where students make up at least 10 percent of the population.

All Duke University undergrads must quarantine after COVID outbreak – Duke University issued a quarantine order for all of its undergraduates effective Saturday night due to a coronavirus outbreak caused by students who attended recruitment parties, the school said.The university said in a statement that all undergraduate students will be forced to stay-in-place until at least March 21. Suspension or dismissal from the school are potential punishments for “flagrant or repeat violators.”Over the past week, the school has reported more than 180 positive coronavirus cases among students. There are an additional 200 students who may have been exposed and have been ordered to quarantine.The school said in the statement that the outbreak was “principally driven by students attending recruitment parties for selective living groups.” Duke said it would provide a policy update on Thursday.

Duke undergraduates ordered to shelter in place amid rapid spike in COVID-19 cases -On Saturday, Duke University in Durham, North Carolina issued an order for all undergraduate students to shelter in place, citing a recent spike in positive COVID-19 cases. “Effective at midnight, Saturday, March 13, all Duke undergraduate students are required to stay-in-place until 9 a.m., Sunday, March 21,” wrote three administrators in the initial email to students Saturday. “If this feels serious, it’s because it is,” they added later on in the same email. The order follows the largest one-week rise on campus since the beginning of the pandemic last March, with 180 students in isolation from a positive test, and 200 students in quarantine as a result of contact tracing measures. According to the university’s COVID Dashboard, over 300 students have tested positive this semester, more than twice the total of positive test results from the entire fall semester. For a week, all in person classes, including labs, have been shifted online, and on-campus students are required to remain in their residence halls at all times, except for essential activities related to food, health, or safety. Students living off campus will not be permitted on university grounds, except to participate in testing or to visit the Student Health Center. The administration is attempting to shift the blame for the outbreak squarely on the students. The email sent to students announcing the shelter-in-place order explicitly says that the recent case spike is tied to “students attending recruitment parties for selective living groups.” Previously, the university said many new cases were tied to events organized by fraternities that had disaffiliated from the university, the Duke Chronicle reported. Despite the role celebrations or other social campus activities play in the spread of the virus, the attempt to scapegoat students for the outbreak is a dishonest effort to cover over the culpability of the university administration itself. The conditions in student dormitories, classrooms, labs, and even off campus housing, are simply not conducive to proper social distancing measures. School administrations are fully aware of the devastating impact that school reopenings had on students, teachers and staff, along with the broader community in college towns throughout the country, during the fall semester. Towns and cities with colleges that reopened for in-person learning, or which, for one reason or another, allowed large numbers of students to return to their dorms, quickly become some of the worst hot spots in the country.

150 spring breakers arrested amid party chaos in Miami Beach –About 150 people were arrested in Miami Beach over the weekend as throngs of unruly spring breakers descended on the city.Friday marked the wildest day in the party hot spot as about 120 people were arrested and two police officers were injured during clashes with the revelers, Local 10 News reported.”It is really a difficult situation,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said of the weekend debauchery.”A lot of people are coming here and they are coming here with the wrong intentions,” he said,according to another report from the outlet. The city is under a midnight curfew amid the pandemic.The officers who were injured had been attempting to make an arrest when they were attacked, authorities said.”The crowd ended up turning on those officers who were there,” Miami Beach police spokesman Ernesto Rodriguez said, according to the report.The gatherings on Friday led police in some areas to deploy pepper balls to disperse the crowds.On Saturday, 30 more people were arrested.Gelber warned would-be spring breakers that more arrests will be made if they continue to disobey laws. “If you are coming here because you think anything goes, you’re going to have a terrible time. We are going to arrest you,” he said.

Kenyon College student workers in Ohio authorize strike over COVID-19 safety –On March 11, members of the Kenyon Student Worker Organizing Committee (K-SWOC) authorized a strike in opposition to the college administration and board of trustees’ refusal to recognize the newly formed union. Students at Kenyon College in Gambier, Ohio formed K-SWOC in April 2020 in response to employment uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 campus closure in March 2020. According to a press release on the K-SWOC website, most student workers were left in the dark after campus closures, payments stopped and students were told to simply wait for remote employment opportunities. A few workplaces were made remote quickly, but this was not the norm. A statement on the K-SWOC Twitter announcing the authorization vote noted that they are striking to “protest the college’s unfair practices and policies.” They added, “Over the last year student workers, through KSWOC-UE, have repeatedly attempted to raise our issues with Kenyon’s administration through conversations with managers and senior leadership, petitions that laid out our concerns.” K-SWOC has not released a date or list of demands for the planned strike which will be made up of student workers from several campus workplaces. Kenyon College is a small undergraduate liberal arts college attended by 1,730 students and the K-SWOC is not affiliated at this point with any larger union but has cited being assisted by the campus maintenance workers’ union, the United Electrical Workers (UE) Local 712. For the 2020-21 academic year, Kenyon is back in session with a mixture of remote and in-person instruction with certain grade levels allowed back on campus for specific semesters.

Indian farmers’ agitation against Modi’s pro-agribusiness laws continues for fourth month -The agitation by hundreds of thousands of Indian farmers against the pro-agribusiness laws adopted by Narendra Modi’s Hindu-supremacist Bharatiya Janatha Party (BJP) government is now well into its fourth month. Tens of thousands of farmers and their supporters remain camped on the outskirts of the national capital Delhi, as they have been since a massive government-ordered security operation blocked their entry into the city at the beginning of their “Delhi Chalo” (Let’s go to Delhi) protest in late November. The Modi government has laid the groundwork for a violent crackdown aimed at breaking up the farmers’ protest. Seizing on clashes between protesting farmers and police during a tractor rally in Delhi on Republic Day, January 26, the government ordered Delhi police to erect war zone-style barricades around the farmers’ encampments, virtually imprisoning the protesters. The Delhi police are under the direct authority of Amit Shah, the Home Minister and Modi’s chief henchman. The three laws open India’s agricultural sector to domination by giant multinational and domestic agribusiness concerns. Farmers worry that the legislation will enable international investors and powerful corporate interests to seize control of their land and dictate production and prices. In addition to the laws’ repeal, the farmers are demanding legal guarantees that the minimum support pricing (MSP) system will not be dismantled. The MSP gives farmers a guaranteed minimum price for certain staple crops. Modi and Shah are anxious to bring a quick end to the farmers’ agitation, which has served as a rallying point for mass opposition to the government and done much to shatter its corporate media – concocted myth of invincibility. But for the moment they have opted to try to wear the farmers down rather than order a violent security crackdown that could have explosive consequences. One consideration is the impact a clash between security forces and farmers would have on the state assembly elections being held in five states, including West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, next month. However, the government’s biggest fear is that a state security crackdown on the protesting farmers would serve to galvanise mass social anger within the working class and escape the control of the bourgeois opposition parties and trade unions. This fear has been fuelled by a recent upsurge of protests and strikes by workers against the Modi government’s pro-investor reforms, of which the farm laws are a part. About 1 million bank employees throughout India began a two-day strike yesterday against the Modi government’s plans to privatise public sector banks. On two occasions during 2020, on January 8 and November 26, tens of millions of workers participated in one-day general strikes against the BJP government’s pro-investor reforms and austerity measures. The second national strike also demanded emergency assistance for the hundreds of millions whom the government left to fend for themselves during its ill-prepared COVID-19 lockdown. Recent months have also seen a series of strikes and protests involving workers in the public and private sectors, including coal miners, health care staff, and Toyota car assembly and auto parts workers. But the working class has been prevented from intervening independently in the current political situation and providing leadership to the struggles of poor farmers and agricultural labourers by the treacherous policies of the Indian Stalinists and their affiliated unions. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPM and the Communist Party of India (CPI) are endeavouring to keep the working class on the sidelines, while urging the farmers to place their hopes in the Congress Party, till recently the Indian ruling class’s preferred party of government, and other right-wing parties.

Paraguay’s health care system collapses as government tries to quell protests – Protests continue across Paraguay demanding the ouster of the fascistic administration of President Mario Abdo Ben’tez over its refusal to take measures to contain a massive surge of COVID-19 infections. In recent days, however, the crowds have significantly diminished, largely due to the collapse of the health care system. The government continues to oppose the demands by demonstrators and doctors associations, including the Pneumology Society, for a return to lockdown measures, including the shutting down of all nonessential activities and schools. The surge in cases since early February has been exponential, with the seven-day average rising from 700 daily infections to 1,730. According to Our World in Data, Paraguay has the highest rate of new infections in the world, with 44.6 percent of COVID-19 tests coming out positive. On Sunday, the specialist in infectious diseases Tomfls Mateo Balmelli raised the prospect that, given the current trend, the health care system will remain “collapsed” for the rest of the year. He pointed to the dangers of a rise in flu and Dengue cases, as well as the new and more transmissible coronavirus variants. Several health care experts have suggested that the recent surge is being dramatically worsened by the new strains from Brazil, after thousands of Paraguayans traveled there for vacations. The rapid surges in Brazil, Paraguay and much of Europe, fueled by the new variants, are a major warning for the rest of the world. The surge has saturated ICU beds in Paraguay’s public hospitals and led to shortages of medicines, which have in turn increased the death rate to 25 a day. At the same time, infections have translated into guaranteed bankruptcies for working class families. On Sunday, in unprecedented scenes, the broadcaster GEN interviewed long lines of family members of patients outside the public hospitals, as they waited for doctors to send them on frantic searches for the medicines needed to save their loved ones. While appreciative of the care by the medical staff, a woman whose uncle is being treated for COVID-19 at the Cl’nicas Hospital said the family has spent about 10 million guarani ($1,520) out of pocket in one week of intensive care. This is the equivalent of more than two years of the average salary in the private sector in Paraguay, the second poorest country in South America.

Germany: Open schools, day-care centres and businesses increase risk of new coronavirus variants– New daily coronavirus infections are rising steadily again in Germany, as well as in France, Poland, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands. Previously, the numbers of infections and deaths had fallen to a level corresponding to the peak of the first wave. The R-value, which indicates the incidence of infection eight to 16 days ago, is currently back at 1.26 (compared to 0.96 only three days ago). Although only 7 percent of the population has received an initial vaccination and of these people only one in two is fully immunised, the federal and state governments are systematically lifting the remaining protective measures. In this way, they are setting the course for mass fatalities that goes far beyond what has happened so far. The widespread and comprehensive reopening of primary schools three weeks ago has resulted in the incidence rate among primary school children officially exceeding the average rate for the population as a whole for the first time. Among 0-to-four-year-olds, the incidence rate has risen from 48 to 60 in 100,000 within one week, according to the RKI’s current situation report. Among five-to-nine-year-olds, the incidence rose from 54 to 72 and among 10-to-14-year-olds from 51 to 62. In the German capital Berlin, the incidence rate among children under four years of age has more than doubled in the past fortnight. Among five-to-nine-year-olds, it rose from 41 to 77 and in the 10-to-14-year-old age group from 32 to 75. Robert Koch Institute (RKI) head Lothar Wieler described the increase in cases of infection among the under-15s since mid-February as “very rapid.” At the same time, he noted that more outbreaks were currently being observed at day-care centres than in the period before Christmas, when a wave of 1,000 deaths per day occurred. A map compiled by a teacher from North Rhine-Westphalia, providing a geographical overview in which reports from parents and teachers are entered, lists a total of 147 “school clusters” for the period “from February 2021,” including 58 infection clusters with “3 to 9 infections” and at least five mass outbreaks “with 10 or more infected persons.” In the same period, 110 “day-care clusters with mutated virus strains” were reported.

Spain’s Labor Office Hit by Massive Ransomware Attack As Unemployment Hits Four-Year High – Spain’s employment service (SEPE) was hit by a ransomware attack last Tuesday that paralysedall of its online processes. The attack forced the suspension of virtually all activities at the organisation’s 700+ offices, including telephone assistance. Employees were ordered to turn off their computers and revert to using pen and paper. For the last five working days they have been unable to process any request for personal information or manage new registrations of dismissed workers, job seekers or requests for benefits. Things are only just beginning to return to some semblance of normality today. The Ryuk ransomware virus used in the attack is famed for targeting large, public-entity Microsoft Windows cybersystems. It encrypts data on an infected system, rendering the data inaccessible until a ransom is paid in untraceable bitcoin. According to El Pa’s, the Ryuk strain used to target SEPE is more virulent than former strains. It can even infect computers that are switched off. Prior victims of Ryuk attacks include US newspapers such as the LA Times and hospitals and schools in the US, Germany and the UK. In this case the victims are among the most vulnerable in society – those who have lost their jobs or whose jobs have been temporarily suspended. In Spain, home to the highest unemployment rate in the Euro Area, they are legion. In total, 2.73 million people depend on SEPE for funds, including my wife who is currently furloughed. SEPE is responsible for processing unemployment and furlough claims and payments. Long before last week’s attack, it had already been stretched to breaking point by the sheer number of applications for furlough payments in the early months of the virus crisis. At the height of last year’s lockdown some 4.5 million people were on furlough or receiving self-employed assistance. That number steadily declined as many returned to their jobs, reaching just under a million in February. But the dole queue has grown steadily, reaching a four-year high of 4.08 million in February. That’s the equivalent of 16.1% of the working population. It’s more than a million less than the historic peak registered in 2013, when the unemployment rate hit 26%. But almost a million people are currently furloughed and don’t count as “unemployed.” Many of their jobs will end up being destroyed. The outlook is particularly bleak for Spain’s youth, who already bore the brunt of the last crisis. Many of the best and brightest have since left the country for greener pastures. Yet despite suffering one of the worst brain drains in Europe, the official jobless rate for those under 25 still remains above 40% – the highest level in Europe. The 30-39 age group also lost ground during the post-crisis years. Many of the young Spaniards that do have work aren’t earning enough money or don’t have enough job security to rent an apartment. This may partly explain why Spain has become a squatter’s paradise.

Poland goes into near-lockdown as COVID-19 pandemic accelerates – Poland will close most public venues this Saturday for three weeks, as the rapidly growing number of new daily coronavirus cases threatens the country’s already overwhelmed health care services, Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said Wednesday. On the day of the announcement, the country noted 25,052 new infections, a 44 percent jump on the same day last week, Poland’s health ministry said in its daily report; 52 percent of the cases are of the more infectious British variant. There were 453 fatalities, up 13 percent over last week. “The main reason for the development of this situation and its acceleration is the British mutation of the coronavirus,” Niedzielski told reporters. Poland started clamping down over the last two weeks as the country entered the third wave of the pandemic, introducing tougher measures in two regions, However, the surge is now forcing the government to impose national measures to keep the health system from being overwhelmed, Niedzielski said. Under the new rules that go into effect on Saturday, shopping malls will close except for essential stores like groceries or pharmacies. Cinemas, theaters and other cultural institutions will close. Hotels, swimming pools, ski slopes, fitness centers and other sports venues will also shut down. Poland will also suspend classes for pupils in the first three classes of school – the only ones who had been attending school. That puts the country’s entire education system back online. The government also asked companies to keep employees at home if possible. “We have to limit mobility and the transmission of the virus,” Niedzielski said. Still, those measures fall short of the curfews and lockdowns in place in many other EU countries. Niedzielski said that further restrictions might be necessary if the situation does not improve. “If extending restrictions to the entire territory of Poland does not put an end to the epidemic, or at least slow down the third wave, then the next steps will be a typical lockdown, where we will close everything completely,” Niedzielski said. Some experts have criticized the government’s response to the third wave. “Apart from lockdown, [the government] hasn’t proposed anything new. That is not an active fight against the virus. We also do not test on a mass scale,” PaweÅ‚ Grzesiowski, an expert with Poland’s doctors association NIL, told private broadcaster TVN24. Poland has recorded 1,956,974 coronavirus cases since the pandemic began in the country of 38 million a year ago. The number of fatalities has reached 48,032.

France announces soft new virus restrictions in Paris region (AP) – The French government backed off Thursday from ordering a tough lockdown for Paris and several other regions despite an increasingly alarming situation at hospitals with a rise in the numbers of COVID-19 patients. Instead, the prime minister announced a patchwork of new restrictions while reducing the national curfew by one hour. Getting large doses of fresh air is being encouraged, meaning that people living in the Paris region and in the north of the country can walk as long as they like in a day, but within a 10-kilometer (6-mile) radius of their homes and with a paper authorizing the stroll. Stores, however, will feel the pinch with all non-essential outlets – but not bookshops – closing down. And travel between regions is forbidden without a compelling reason. Nothing will change at schools, which are to remain open, but sports activities will now be allowed. Prime Minister Jean Castex announced the new rules, which will take effect as of midnight Friday and last for at least four weeks. He referred to “massive new measures” to “slow down (the virus) without locking down people.” “I also know the deep wish of many of you to enjoy the outdoors, since the crisis has gone on for one year and Spring is coming,” Castex said. He also announced that the French would be able to get inoculated with the AstraZeneca vaccine starting Friday afternoon – and that he himself will be getting a shot “to show we can have complete confidence.” Castex is making for himself an exception to the age rule, moving to the front of the line of those awaiting vaccinations, currently reserved for people 75 and older or with serious health concerns. France and some other countries briefly suspended use of the vaccine over fears of blood clots, and are resuming it after the European Medicines Agency gave its green light earlier Thursday.

Oman, Qatar to be added to England’s travel red list amid coronavirus threat – Oman and Qatar have been added to England’s red list of countries, meaning a ban will be put on commercial and private planes travelling from those countries from Friday. Ethiopia and Somalia were also added to the red list, which also includes the UAE, while Portugal (including Madeira and the Azores) and Mauritius will be removed. How ‘red list’ ruling has decimated demand on Dubai-Heathrow air route The move aims to protect England against new variants of coronavirus at a critical time for the vaccine programme, a statement said. With over 24 million vaccinations delivered in the UK so far, the move will help to reduce the risk of new variants – such as those first identified in South Africa and Brazil – entering England, it added. From 4 a.m. on Friday, visitors who have departed from or transited through Oman and Qatar in the previous 10 days will be refused entry into England. Only British and Irish citizens, or those with residence rights (including long-term visa holders), will be allowed to enter and must stay in a government-approved facility for 10 days. During their stay, they will be required to take a coronavirus test on day two and day 8. “The government has made it consistently clear it will take decisive action if necessary to contain the virus and has taken the decision to add these destinations to the red list,” the statement said. Oman Air intends to rollout vaccine passport in “near future” “The government continues to work with the hospitality sector to ensure it is ready to meet any increased demand – with over 58,000 rooms on standby, which can be made available to book as needed,” it added. British nationals currently in the countries on the red list should make use of the commercial options available if they wish to return to England.

Much of Europe tightens anti-pandemic rules as virus surges (AP) – Tighter restrictions aimed at reining in surging coronavirus infections took hold in much of Italy and parts of Poland on Monday, while in France, Paris risks being slapped with a weekend lockdown as ICUs near saturation with COVID-19 patients. In line with an Italian government decision late last week, 80% of schoolchildren, from nursery through high schools, were locked out of classroom starting on Monday. Ever-mounting numbers of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, steadily rising daily caseloads and infection transmission predominantly driven by a virus variant first discovered in Britain have combined to make Italian Premier Mario Draghi’s new government apply “red zone” designation on more regions, including, for the first time since the color-tiered system was created last fall, on Lazio, the region including Rome. In red-zone regions, restaurants and cafes can do only takeout or delivery, nonessential shops are shuttered and residents must stick close to home, except for work, health or shopping for necessities. Over the weekend, many hair salons extended hours to handle last-minute customers, and crowds thronged shopping streets, parks and seaside promenades before the crackdown took effect. Draghi on Friday promised an quick infusion of pandemic aid to shuttered businesses. Beyond the commercial aspects, parents voiced concern for children shut out of classrooms. “They have little interaction now with their friends, they have to celebrate their birthdays alone, said Marco Pacciani as he strolled through a Rome park with his young son. In Poland, amid a sharp spike in the number of new infections and of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, restrictions were tightened in two more regions, including the capital, Warsaw, and a western province that borders Germany. Two other provinces were already under restrictions. Under the heightened measures, hotels and shopping malls have to remain closed, as do theaters, cinemas, fitness clubs and sports facilities. Schoolchildren ages 6-9 will have a combination of in-class and remote instruction.

.

include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>