Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
The news posted last week for the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some important articles are summarized here. The articles are more or less organized with general virus news and anecdotes first, then stories from around the US, followed by an increased number of items from other countries around the globe. New US cases turned up by 12% in the last week. US deaths continued a slow decline. Elsewhere, new cases are rising again in Europe and India is the new global hotspot. Economic news related to COVID-19 is found here.
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Summary:
The number of US deaths continues to fall slowly, ie ~5%, week over week. Global cases and US cases rose week over week. There’s not a new record for global cases, but the past 5 days have all been in the top ten for highest number of cases on record. Europe is the new epicenter globally, with a France, Italy and UK all hitting all-time highs this week. Civilization is losing this one.
Calculated Risk is tracking the daily testing rate and results. The 10 October graphic:
Another source of regularly updated data is the Johns Hopkins’ web site. Below is a graphic for Johns Hopkins for the daily global new cases since the start of the pandemic.
Also, new this week is the following map from Reuters (the map is interactive to show data if you click on it):
Of course, Steven Hansen summarizes and links the latest news related to the pandemic every day, 7 days a week, plus displays over a dozen important graphics updated at least daily. The most recent article at the time this is published: 10 October 2020 Coronavirus Charts and News: First Toilet Paper, Now We’re Running Out Of Fridges. U.S. Sees Highest Number Of New Coronavirus Cases In Nearly Two Months.
This article leads the daily newsletter from Global Economic Intersection every day. Newsletter subscription is free.
Here are the rest of the articles for the past week reviewed and summarized:
CDC Officially Acknowledges Airborne Transmission of Coronavirus – The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has officially acknowledged that the new coronaviruscan be spread via airborne transmission.”Today, CDC issued updated guidance to its How COVID-19 Spreads website, which includes information about the potential for airborne spread of the virus that causes COVID-19,” the agency wrote Monday in a press release. By doing so, the CDC is finally catching up with what many health experts have been warning for months,NPR pointed out. The World Health Organization acknowledged airborne transmission in July after 239 scientists wrote a letter urging the organization to take airborne spread seriously. The U.S. agency seemed ready to accept airborne transmission last month, when it posted guidance saying that COVID-19 was most commonly spread “through respiratory droplets or small particles, such as those in aerosols,” as CBS News reported at the time. However, it quickly removed the update, saying it was draft language posted in error. Monday’s updated guidance admits to airborne transmission once again, but says it is not the most common way the coronavirus spreads. “CDC continues to believe, based on current science, that people are more likely to become infected the longer and closer they are to a person with COVID-19,” the agency wrote in the press release announcing the change. “Today’s update acknowledges the existence of some published reports showing limited, uncommon circumstances where people with COVID-19 infected others who were more than 6 feet away or shortly after the COVID-19-positive person left an area. In these instances, transmission occurred in poorly ventilated and enclosed spaces that often involved activities that caused heavier breathing, like singing or exercise. Such environments and activities may contribute to the buildup of virus-carrying particles.” In the updated guidance, the CDC compared the airborne transmission of COVID-19 to the spread of other diseases like tuberculosis and chicken pox.
Previous infection with other types of coronaviruses may lessen severity of COVID-19 –– Being previously infected with a coronaviruses that cause the “common cold” may decrease the severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infections, according to results of a new study. Led by researchers at Boston Medical Center and Boston University School of Medicine, the study also demonstrates that the immunity built up from previous non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections does not prevent individuals from getting COVID-19. Published in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, the findings provide important insight into the immune response against SARS-CoV-2, which could have significant implications on COVID-19 vaccine development. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 200,000 deaths in the US, and more than one million globally. There is a growing body of research looking into specific ways that the SARS-CoV-2 virus impacts different populations, including why some people are infected and are asymptomatic, as well as what increases ones mortality as a result of infection. There are a number of vaccines under development in order to determine what type of vaccine (mRNA, viral vector) will be most effective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections. While SARS-CoV-2 is a relatively new pathogen, there are many other types of coronaviruses that are endemic in humans and can cause the “common cold” and pneumonia. These coronaviruses share some genetic sequences with SARS-CoV-2, and the immune responses from these coronaviruses can cross-react against SARS-CoV-2.
Severe COVID-19 infection linked to overactive immune cells – Samples from the lungs of patients show a runaway immune system reaction could be one mechanism behind severe COVID-19 cases. When infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, many people experience mild and moderate symptoms, but for some people infection can be severe or fatal. Scientists are urgently seeking to understand how COVID-19 can become severe. Now, a study led by Imperial College London researchers has revealed how an overreaction of part of the immune system could be linked to severe cases of COVID-19. When we are infected with pathogens like bacteria and viruses, our bodies mount several types of immune system response. One of the major components are T cells, which come in several different forms that coordinate the immune response, from killing infected cells to recruiting more T cells to the fight. Sometimes, our immune system overreacts to invaders, for example during an allergic reaction, resulting in T cells killing normal, healthy cells and causing tissue damage. However, there is a ‘brake mechanism’ that should kick in, causing T cells to reduce their activity and calming inflammation. The new research, published today in Frontiers in Immunology, shows how this brake mechanism does not appear to kick in in severe COVID-19 cases.
Group Most Likely to Get Covid-19 Is Least Likely to Die From It – WSJ = It isn’t clear whether President Trump, who is 74 years old, was infected with the coronavirusby a 31-year-old political adviser – but if he was, the transmission route from young to old would follow an international trend.Young people account for the majority of known Covid-19 infections, but the elderly account for most of the deaths.“It’s a social moral dilemma,” said Mun Sim Lai, a population-affairs officer with the United Nations who has examined the trend. “Young people get the virus and don’t die, but they are the ones spreading it to old people. This is true over the world.”Dr. Lai analyzed data from 55 countries, including the U.S., and found that through Sept. 1, people who were 65 and older represented just 12% of confirmed coronavirus cases but 66% of deaths.Those who were 44 and younger accounted for 60% of known cases but only 7% of deaths.In the countries Dr. Lai examined, 11.7 million people younger than age 65 had been infected with Covid-19 and around 169,400 died. In comparison, 1.6 million older people had been infected and around 331,000 died.That doesn’t mean younger people have gotten a free pass.While the raw number of deaths caused by Covid-19 is low for ages 25 to 44, mortality has increased by around 25% this year compared with the previous five years, according to data provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Even though it’s a relatively small number of deaths, it’s a big impact,” said Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality-statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics, a division of the CDC. “It’s an additional fourth of what’s normal.” Another way to think about the impact is to consider how many people were expected to die this year based on historical data versus how many people have actually died. In the U.S., there were 10 deaths for every 10,000 people ages 25 to 44 on average in the first 32 weeks of the year from 2015 through 2019, Under normal circumstances, she would anticipate about the same mortality rate this year.“But what has happened,” she said, “is there were about 12 deaths for every 10,000 people ages 25 to 44 years old. The absolute risk for dying for that group is about two deaths per 10,000 people more than we would expect.”
Hospitalized COVID-19 patients are younger, healthier than influenza patients – Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were more likely male, younger, and, in both the US and Spain, had fewer comorbidities and lower medication use than hospitalized influenza patients according to a recent study published by the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) community. OHDSI has established an international network of researchers and observational health databases with a central coordinating center housed at the Department of Biomedical Informatics at Columbia University. This global network study, which included more than 34,000 COVID-19 patients from across three continents, is intended to provide greater detail about the characteristics of patients suffering from the disease, and also to help inform decision-making around the care of hospitalized patients. Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were more typically male in the US and Spain, but more often female in South Korea. The ages of patients varied, but in Spain and the US, the most common age groups were between 60 to 75. Patients hospitalized with influenza were typically older than those hospitalized with COVID-19, and more likely to be female. Many of the patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were seen to have other health conditions. For example, the prevalence of hypertensive disorder ranged from 24% to 70%, diabetes from 13% to 43%, and asthma from 4% to 15%, across data sources. Despite this, however, when compared to patients hospitalized with influenza in recent years, those with COVID-19 were seen to generally be healthier. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cardiovascular disease and dementia were all more common among those hospitalized with influenza compared to those hospitalized with COVID-19.
Pregnant women are likely to have mild covid-19 cases but suffer prolonged symptoms, study finds – One of the largest studies of its kind suggests that most pregnant women who become infected with the coronavirus will have mild cases but suffer prolonged symptoms that may linger for two months or longer in some cases.The study, published in the journal Obstetrics and Gynecology, found that most women who participated had mild cases of covid-19 – a finding consistent with previous studies. Among the nearly 600 women followed, only 5 percent were hospitalized and 2 percent were admitted to intensive care units.Despite the mildness of their cases, 25 percent of the participants continued to experience symptoms eight weeks after becoming sick. The median length of symptoms was 37 days. Although pregnancy is known to cause major changes to the immune system, the length of time for continuing symptoms was surprising, said co-principal investigator Vanessa Jacoby, vice chair of research in the obstetrics, gynecology and reproductive sciences department at the University of California at San Francisco. “We know in most studies in the general population that if you have mild covid-19, usually your symptoms go away within the first one to two weeks,” she said. “But that is not what we found if you are pregnant.” Months into the coronavirus pandemic, many questions remain unanswered about how the virus impacts pregnant women and their babies, including its long-term effects, said David Jaspan, chair of the obstetrics and gynecology department at the Einstein Healthcare Network in Philadelphia, who was not involved in the study. One complication is that symptoms of the virus may overlap with symptoms of a normal pregnancy. Another, Jaspan said, is that fear of being in a waiting room and being exposed to the virus has meant fewer patients are showing up for postpartum visits.
Three Quarters of People with SARS-CoV-2 Infection are Asymptomatic: Analysis of English Household Survey Data –To reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, it is important to identify those who are infectious. However, little is known about what proportion of infectious people are asymptomatic and potential “silent” transmitters. We evaluated the value of COVID-19 symptoms as a marker for SARS-CoV-2 infection from a representative English survey. We used data from the Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot study. We estimated sensitivity, specificity, the proportion of asymptomatic cases (1 – sensitivity), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of COVID-19 symptoms as a marker of infection using results of the SARS-CoV-2 test as the “gold standard”. In total, there were 36,061 individuals with a SARS-CoV-2 test between 26 April and 27 June 2020. Of these, 625 (1.7%) reported symptoms on the day of the test. There were 115 (0.32%) with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Of the 115, there were 27 (23.5%) who were symptomatic and 88 (76.5%) who were asymptomatic on the day of the test. Focusing on those with specific symptoms (cough, and/or fever, and/or loss of taste/smell), there were 158 (0.43%) with such symptoms on the day of the test. Of the 115 with a positive SARS-CoV-2, there were 16 (13.9%) reporting symptoms. In contrast, 99 (86.1%) did not report specific symptoms on the day of the test. The PPV for all symptoms was 4.3% and for the specific symptoms 10.1%. The specificity and NPV of symptoms were above 98%. COVID-19 symptoms are poor markers of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 76.5% of this random sample who tested positive reported no symptoms, and 86.1% reported none of those specific to COVID-19. A more widespread testing programme is necessary to capture “silent” transmission and potentially prevent and reduce future outbreaks.
A DARPA-Funded Implantable Biochip to Detect COVID-19 Could Hit Markets by 2021 – As early as 2006, DARPA was already researching how to identify viral, upper respiratory pathogens through its Predicting Health and Disease (PHD) program, which led to the creation of the agency’s Biological Technologies Office (BTO), as reported by Whitney Webb in a May article for The Last American Vagabond. In 2014, DARPA’s BTO launched its “In Vivo Nanoplatforms” (IVN) program, which researches implantable nanotechnologies, leading to the development of ‘hydrogel’. Hydrogel is a nanotechnology whose inventor early on boasted that “If [it] pans out, with approval from FDA, then consumers could get the sensors implanted in their core to measure their levels of glucose, oxygen, and lactate.” This contact lens-like material requires a special injector to be introduced under the skin where it can transmit light-based digital signals through a wireless network like 5G. Once firmly implanted inside the body, human cells are at the mercy of any mRNA program delivered via this substrate, unleashing a nightmare of possibilities. It is, perhaps, the first true step towards full-on transhumanism; a “philosophy” that is in vogue with many powerful and influential people, such as Google’s Ray Kurzweil and Eric Schmidt and whose proponents see the fusion of technology and biology as an inevitable consequence of human progress. The private company created to market this technology, that allows for biological processes to be controlled remotely and opens the door to the potential manipulation of our biological responses and, ultimately, our entire existence, is called Profusa Inc and its operations are funded with millions from NIH and DARPA. In March, the company was quietly inserted into the crowded COVID-19 bazaar in March 2020, when it announced aninjectable biochip for the detection of viral respiratory diseases, including COVID-19. In July, a preliminary report funded by Fauci’s NIAID and the NIH on an mRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 was published in The New England Journal of Medicine, concluding that mRNA-1273 vaccine. provided by Moderna for the study, “induced anti – SARS-CoV-2 immune responses in all participants, and no trial-limiting safety concerns were identified,” and supported “further development of this vaccine.” A month earlier, the NIH had claimed a joint stake in Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, citing a contract signed in December, 2019, stipulating that the “mRNA coronavirus vaccine candidates [are] developed and jointly owned” by both parties. Moderna disputes the federal government’s position, stating that the company “has a broad owned and licensed IP estate” and is “not aware of any IP that would prevent us from commercializing our product candidates, including mRNA-1273.”
With 1m dead, are we any better at treating Covid-19? – Tending to Covid-19 patients in the early days of the pandemic, Leora Horwitz felt like a doctor from the 18th century, desperately trying to discover more about a new disease to learn how to stop people from dying.“We couldn’t tell how quickly people were likely to deteriorate, what kinds of deterioration they would have . . . or when they were out of the woods,” says the clinician-researcher at NYU Langone, an academic medical centre in New York. “We had no idea.”This week, the coronavirus pandemic hit a haunting milestone, with an official death toll of 1m worldwide – almost half of those in the US, India and Brazil. The rapid spread of the virus has triggered fears among some scientific and medical experts that millions more will die.On Friday it was announced that Donald Trump, US president, had tested positive for the virus. Yet the death rate – how many people who have contracted coronavirus die – may be falling because of improved care, according to the World Health Organization. Countries grappling with a new surge in infections hope that doctors have grasped how to keep more patients alive. The global survival rate for people hospitalised with Covid-19 has increased from 66 per cent in March to 84 per cent in August, according to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium.Dr Horwitz says the contrast between New York’s wards in late March and today is like “night and day”. Even accounting for the demographic differences between the patients being treated at her hospital, she found their chances of survival were 22 percentage points higher in August than in March in research that has yet to be peer-reviewed.But some scientists remain sceptical about whether the death rate is actually falling, questioning the quality of the data. They argue that if it is coming down it has more to do with the rise in younger people getting sick. “The biggest question that’s out there right now – or at least one of them is [whether] the mortality rate from Covid-19 is actually dropping, or is it just apparently dropping,” says Jonathan Slotkin, chief medical officer at Contigo Health, part of Premier, a group of over 4,000 US hospitals.
Why Don’t We Study Countries That Have Had COVID-19 Success? – – Jerri-Lynn Scofield – I’m looking at countries based on the number of deaths recorded – from 105 in Hong Kong for a population of 7 million; to 35 in Vietnam for its population of 100 million; to 7 in Taiwan for a population of 24 million; to 25 in New Zealand for a population of 5 million. I am focusing on death counts rather than cases. Why? Governments are following different rules for reporting their COVID -19 cases, including only reporting symptomatic cases. Now, we know most – if not all- governments have a propensity to lie. This includes about reporting the number of Covid-19 deaths downwards as well. But in the era of social media, it is much more difficult to manipulate death figures. Not impossible but difficult. So I am paying attention to those, as I think they are more or less accurate – although I wouldn’t hazard any guesses as to the margin of error.
- Hong Kong. Regular readers know I have written extensively about Hong Kong’s success, in several posts, relaying on the expertise of my Oxford friend, Canadian medical doctor Sarah Borwein, who currently practices in Hong Kong and is a veteran of the SARS crisis from her timepracticing in Beijing. I’m not going to repeat points I made in those previous posts, except to say early and comprehensive mask wearing; excellent widespread access to good, affordable medical care; and comprehensive contact tracing were all part of the mix. Hong Kong has never had to lock down completely, but it has more or less sealed its borders. Even Hong Kong residents have faced barriers to their return, and when they did make it home, they were immediately tested. If necessary, they were subject to a quarantine.
- Vietnam. For months, this country of 100 million people, reported no COVID-19 deaths, until it was hit with a second wave. Despite being a relatively poor country, Vietnam has benefitted from a well-developed public health system, combined with tight border controls, its testing policy, extensive contact tracing, and its quarantine policy. The country has made extensive investments in public health, and these have paid off in the COVID-19 crisis. According to Emerging COVID-19 success story: Vietnam’s commitment to containment:
- Taiwan. The Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has prepared extensive domentattion outlining the reasons for Taiwan’s success in battling COVID-19, The Taiwan Model for Combating COVID-19: Taiwan has been able to contain the pandemic and minimize its impact on people’s daily lives. The transparency and honesty with which Taiwan has implemented prevention measures is a democratic model of excellence in fighting disease. This webpage shares the Taiwan Model for combating the pandemic, as well as links to related international media coverage and video clips. The materials found here also help explain the different aspects of Taiwan’s epidemic prevention work, and how Taiwan is helping the international community. The country rigorously controlled its borders, according to the Toronto Star, Quarantine and COVID testing are key to Taiwan’s border reopening:
- New Zealand. One major advantage NZ has it’s at the end of the earth and shares no land borders with other counties. So it was able to quickly isolate itself. Its cases have come from overseas. The Ministry of Health (MoH) has an aggressive contact tracing program, for two types of contacts: close contacts and casual contacts. According to the Ministry of Health’s online circular, Contact tracing for COVID-19: If you have been identified as a close contact of someone with COVID-19, you can expect to be contacted by the Ministry of Health or your local district health board’s public health unit (PHU).
Covid: Vaccine will ‘not return life to normal in spring’ BBC. Even an effective coronavirus vaccine will not return life to normal in spring, a group of leading scientists has warned.A vaccine is often seen as the holy grail that will end the pandemic.But a report, from researchers brought together by the Royal Society, said we needed to be “realistic” about what a vaccine could achieve and when.They said restrictions may need to be “gradually relaxed” as it could take up to a year to roll the vaccine out.More than 200 vaccines to protect against the virus are being developed by scientists around the world in a process that is taking place at unprecedented speed.”A vaccine offers great hope for potentially ending the pandemic, but we do know that the history of vaccine development is littered with lots of failures,” said Dr Fiona Culley, from the National Heart and Lung Institute at Imperial College London.There is optimism, including from the UK government’s scientific advisers, that some people may get a vaccine this year and mass vaccination may start early next year. However, the Royal Society report warns it will be a long process.”Even when the vaccine is available it doesn’t mean within a month everybody is going to be vaccinated, we’re talking about six months, nine months… a year,” said Prof Nilay Shah, head of chemical engineering at Imperial College London. “There’s not a question of life suddenly returning to normal in March.”The report said there were still “enormous” challenges ahead. Some of the experimental approaches being taken – such as RNA vaccines – have never been mass produced before. There are questions around raw materials – both for the vaccine and glass vials – and refrigerator capacity, with some vaccines needing storage at minus 80C. Prof Shah estimates vaccinating people would have to take place at a pace, 10 times faster than the annual flu campaign and would be a full-time job for up to 30,000 trained staff. “I do worry, is enough thinking going into the whole system?” he says. Early trial data has suggested that vaccines are triggering an immune response, but studies have not yet shown if this is enough to either offer complete protection or lessen the symptoms of Covid.
Home-Made Covid Vaccine Appeared to Work, but Questions Remained Josiah Zayner’s plan was simple: replicate a Covid-19 vaccine that had worked in monkeys, test it on himself and then livestream the experiment online over a period of months. Now, that improbable bid is over. Around the world, dozens of Covid-19 vaccines are in human clinical trials involving tens of thousands of people. While vaccines typically take years to develop, U.S. scientists are racing to produce one in months through Operation Warp Speed. But Zayner, a one-time NASA researcher who left the scientific establishment in favor of engaging in do-it-yourself experiments, bet that by working outside regulatory structures, he could test a vaccine even more quickly and certainly more cheaply by giving it to himself. Instead, Zayner discovered, testing a vaccine is far more complicated than he had imagined. Even though his experiment yielded a promising result, Zayner found too many unanswered questions to say that it worked. For one, it wasn’t clear whether antibodies he found in his own body in extremely tiny measures before the experiment began made a difference. Zayner is infamous for attention-grabbing experiments in which he uses himself as a guinea pig. He self- injected the gene-editing tool Crispr while giving a talk at a San Francisco biotech conference, and performed his own fecal matter transplant. Such stunts have made him an informal figurehead for a growing movement of do-it-yourself scientists emboldened by advancements in technology that have made such feats as engineering biology increasingly simple. Zayner believes such cutting-edge science should be accessible to anyone, and that democratizing science could help curb exorbitant drug prices and speed science along. In June, he told Bloomberg News that Covid-19 presented “the perfect opportunity” to show just what biohackers can do. Now, his message is decidedly different: “Human beings – their biology is so complex,” he said in a recent interview. “The results are going to be messy. The experiments are going to be messy. So you test 30,000 people so that the messiness kind of averages out.” As the U.S. rushes to bring a vaccine to market far faster than has ever been done, Zayner said he has discovered why the long, slow process of clinical trials shouldn’t be rushed. A promising early stage result is just that: promising.
Ensuring Uptake of Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 – Covid-19 continues to exact a heavy toll, development of a vaccine appears the most promising means of restoring normalcy to civil life. Perhaps no scientific breakthrough is more eagerly anticipated. But bringing a vaccine to market is only half the challenge; also critical is ensuring a high enough vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity. Concerningly, a recent poll found that only 49% of Americans planned to get vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.1 One option for increasing vaccine uptake is to require it. Mandatory vaccination has proven effective in ensuring high childhood immunization rates in many high-income countries. However, except for influenza vaccination of health care workers, mandates have not been widely used for adults. Although a vaccine remains months to years away, developing a policy strategy to ensure uptake takes time. We offer a framework that states can apply now to help ensure uptake of the vaccine when it becomes available – including consideration of when a mandate might become appropriate. Our approach is guided by lessons from U.S. experiences with vaccines for the 1976 “swine flu,” H1N1 influenza, smallpox, and human papillomavirus (HPV). We believe that six substantive criteria should be met before a state imposes a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine mandate (see box). The first is the existence of evidence that Covid-19 is inadequately controlled in the state by other measures, such as testing, contact tracing, and isolation and quarantine – as indicated by sustained, troubling trends in new cases, hospitalizations, or deaths. The second criterion is that the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), after reviewing the safety and efficacy evidence, has recommended vaccination for the persons who would be covered by a mandate. The third criterion is that there is an adequate supply of vaccine to cover the groups for which a mandate is being considered. Initially, global demand for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will outstrip supply, making the salient question not who must get them but who will be granted access to them. The fourth criterion is that there has been transparent communication of the best available evidence about the vaccine’s safety and efficacy.4 The fifth criterion is that the government has put in place certain support mechanisms for persons required to receive the vaccine. Lessons from past vaccination campaigns suggest that a generous compensation program for people who have serious vaccine side effects should be a centerpiece of these efforts. The last criterion is that vaccination mandates are imposed only after a time-limited trial of voluntary vaccine provision has proved unsuccessful.
Will 500,000 Sharks Be Slaughtered for a COVID-19 Cure? – Scientists are racing to create a cure for COVID-19, but the toll on sharks might be irreparable. Conservationists estimate that half a million of the predators may be killed to supply the world with acoronavirus vaccine when one is developed. Shark liver oil is primarily made of squalene, which helps regulate a shark’s buoyancy in deep water. The compound is also found in plants, humans and other animals. Used as a moisturizing agent in cosmetics, squalene also creates a stronger immune response in vaccines, making them more effective, reportedScience Times.Squalene has been used in flu vaccines since 1997, Boston 25 News reported, and has an “excellent safety record” according to the CDC, Miami Herald reported. It could also help reduce the amount of vaccine needed per person, the Boston news report said.Shark Allies, an advocacy group fighting against shark overfishing, claims that five COVID-19 vaccine candidates use shark squalene; the California-based non-profit is petitioning the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Europe, China and all vaccine developers to omit the compound or find an alternative that doesn’t require sharks.One British pharmaceutical that currently uses shark squalene in flu vaccines plans to manufacture a billion doses of the compound for potential use in coronavirus vaccines by May 2021, Sky News reported. VICEreported that roughly 3,000 sharks have to die to extract a single tonne of squalene.”It’s called harvesting, but really you’re not growing it, you’re taking it from the wild,” Stefanie Brendl, executive director of Shark Allies, told Boston 25 News. “It’s a limited resource.”Shark Allies worries that the development and production of enough vaccines to create worldwide immunization to the novel coronavirus and future coronaviruses that are identified could carry “an immense ecological cost,” VICE reported.”It’s something we need to get ahead of ASAP, because we are facing many years of vaccine production, for a global population, for many more coronavirus vaccines to come,” Brendl told VICE. “The real danger is in what this can turn into in the future. A reliance on shark oil for a global vaccine – it’s truly insane. A wild animal is not a reliable source and cannot sustain ongoing commercial pressure. [And] the overfishing of sharks globally is already at critical levels.”
Two charged in Massachusetts nursing home catastrophe that left 76 veterans dead from COVID-19 – The Massachusetts state attorney general announced last month that two former leaders of a Holyoke veterans home are currently under indictment on charges of criminal neglect in relation to a coronavirus outbreak that led to 76 resident fatalities and more than a hundred positive COVID-19 cases. These deaths at the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home facility and the indictments handed down exemplify the stark failure of the US health care system in containing the spread of the disease in nursing facilities across the nation. Both indictments represent the first criminal case in the country brought against caretakers involved in nursing homes during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey, the two individuals, Bennett Walsh and Dr. David Clinton, are facing felony charges and if convicted could face several years or even decades in prison. “We allege that the actions of these defendants during the COVID-19 outbreak at the facility put veterans at higher risk of infection and death and warrant criminal charges,” Healey said at a press conference. Just a day after the investigative report into the deaths was released, Clinton resigned from his post as chief medical officer of the facility, while Walsh had been placed on administrative leave on March 30 and was later fired after the state sent in an emergency response team to oversee the conditions within the resident home. Soldiers’ Home experienced a staggering spike in COVID-19 infections and deaths during the month of April when the pandemic was raging out of control throughout the Northeast US. By April 22, Soldiers’ Home had reported 56 deaths caused by the novel coronavirus and 92 residents testing positive. At least 81 confirmed infections among hospital staff had been reported by mid-April, making it the most extraordinary outbreak of any veteran’s facility in the country. Even before cases began piling up throughout the course of the month, the state-run facility had been placed under investigation in early April when the attorney general’s office said it had received a notice of “serious issues with COVID-19 infection control procedures.” While mass casualties rose at alarming rates, numerous nurses pointed to the unpreparedness and blatant disregard for safety precautions by hospital administrators as the cause of the spread of disease. Nurses revealed to the media that they were given little to no personal protective equipment and nothing was done to address dangerous staffing shortages.
‘So frustrating’: Doctors and nurses battle virus skeptics (AP) – Treating the sick and dying isn’t even the toughest part for nurse Amelia Montgomery as the coronavirus surges in her corner of red America.It’s dealing with patients and relatives who don’t believe the virus is real, refuse to wear masks and demand treatments like hydroxychloroquine,which President Donald Trump has championed even though experts say it is not effective against the scourge that has killed over 210,000 in the U.S.Montgomery finds herself, like so many other doctors and nurses, in a world where the politics of the crisis are complicating treatment efforts, with some people even resisting getting tested. It’s unclear how Trump’s bout with t virus will affect the situation, but some doctors aren’t optimistic. After a few days of treatment at a military hospital, the president tweeted Monday, “Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. … I feel better than I did 20 years ago!” After one tough shift in the coronavirus unit at Cox South Hospital in Springfield, Missouri, Montgomery went onto Facebook to vent her frustrations about caring for patients who didn’t socially distance because they didn’t believe the virus was real. The hospital later shared her post on its website. She complained that some people demand the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine and think the only patients who get really sick have underlying health problems. “The majority of people don’t understand and can’t picture what we are seeing. That has been frustrating for all of us,” Montgomery said in an interview, adding: “It wears.” Combating virus skeptics is a battle across the country. In Georgia, at Augusta University Medical Center, visitors have tried to get around the mask requirement by wearing face coverings made of fishnet and other material with visible holes, something the hospital has dubbed “malicious compliance.” People also have shown up with video cameras in an attempt to collect proof the virus is a hoax, said Dr. Phillip Coule, the health system’s chief medical officer, who contracted the virus in July and has seen two staff members die.“Just imagine that while you are caring for your own staff that are dying from this disease, and while you are trying to keep yourself safe, and you are trying to keep your family safe, and you are trying to deal with a disease that such little is known about, and then to have somebody tell you that it is all a hoax after you have been dealing with that all day,” he said. “Imagine the emotional distress that that causes.”He said most skeptics – including some who have argued with him on Facebook – are converted to believers when they get sick themselves. And he is starting to hear fewer people dismiss the virus entirely since the president was diagnosed.“It is unfortunate that the president has contracted the disease, but it is difficult for groups who support the president to be out there saying it doesn’t exist,” he said.
Covid-19 continues its onslaught in the U.S. – As President Trump and some of his associates test positive for the coronavirus, the number of new cases reported each day across the United States has been slowly rising.The country is at a key moment in the pandemic, and spread of the virus could worsen significantly through the autumn, experts fear, as colder weather forces people indoors. Every day, some 43,000 new cases are being reported – far fewer than during the surge in the summer, but still an uncomfortably large number.Some of the country’s least populous states are now seeing their highest infection rates.When coastal cities suffered in the spring, cases remained relatively scarce across most of the nation’s midsection. But since late summer, North Dakota and South Dakota have added more cases per capita than any other state.Utah recorded 1,387 new cases on Sunday, a single-day record. Four states – Wisconsin, Indiana, Montana and Wyoming – have added more cases in the last week than in any other seven-day stretch of the pandemic.One significant change from the spring and early summer has been the return of college students to campuses.The New York Times has identified more than 130,000 cases at more than 1,300 American colleges since the pandemic began.Some of the worst trouble spots have calmed. Florida is now averaging about 2,300 new cases a day, roughly one-fifth of what it was seeing at its worst. In Arizona, daily case reports have dropped to about 500 on average, down from more than 3,600.New infections have also plunged in Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina. Mississippi and Alabama have made significant progress since midsummer as well, though case numbers there remain high.California and Texas have also seen drops in case numbers. Both states, however, have recorded more than 800,000 cases. “I’m actually disturbed and concerned about the fact that our baseline of infections is still stuck at around 40,000 per day,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s leading expert on infectious disease, said Monday on CNN. “That’s no place to be when you’re trying to get your arms around an epidemic and get it to a very low baseline as you get into a situation where you’re going to be indoors more than outdoors.”
Ninth COVID-19 death reported at California poultry processor Foster Farms – The deadliest outbreak to date of coronavirus at a meat processing plant has been reported at facility in California, where a ninth Foster Farms worker, hospitalized since August, died September 17. On September 1, the poultry powerhouse of the West Coast, Foster Farms, was forced to close its Livingston poultry processing plant, employing 2,500, by order of the Merced County Department of Public Health (MCDPH) after 392 employees tested positive for COVID-19. Despite the infections and deaths of workers, management bitterly opposed any shutdown to the end. Foster Farms was repeatedly urged by the MCDPH to increase efforts to protect its employees before any deaths occurred. On June 29, as the disease continued to spread throughout the facility, county health officials inspected the plant. In a failed effort to limit the outbreak, the health department suggested “significant changes to the employee break spaces and performing widespread testing of employees within the facility.” The department made continued calls for an increase in testing at the facility throughout the month of July. By the end of the month, Foster Farms had “tested less than 10 percent of the department with the largest [COVID-19] impact within the facility.” Among the employees who were tested, more than 25 percent turned up positive. In an August 27 press release, the health department reported unsuccessfully urging the company to take precautionary safety measures since late June. “The most severe and long-lasting outbreak in Merced County is at the Foster Farms Livingston Facility. On June 29th, MCDPH notified Foster Farms that its Livingston Facility was officially declared an outbreak.” This statement came one month before any documented coronavirus-related deaths at the plant. Nearly 9,000 people in Merced County out of a population of 277,680 have been infected, and 145 have died from COVID-19.
State Epidemiologist: Local Health Departments ‘Cracking Under The Strain’ Of Coronavirus Spread – Wisconsin’s leading epidemiologist says the state needs to double the number of contact-tracing staff at local and tribal health departments to slow the spread of the coronavirus. In an interview with WPR’s “The Morning Show,” Dr. Ryan Westergaard said the state’s public health system is feeling the stress from the rampant spread of the virus. Westergaard said the rising number of hospitalizations from COVID-19 is concerning and could put a strain on hospital staff and resources – something some health systems have already been experiencing.”The other part of our response that is beyond strained, it’s frankly cracking under the strain, is our local public health infrastructure,” Westergaard said. “Our people who respond to positive tests, do contact tracing, call people when they test positive, call people who have been exposed and give them instructions about how to stay safe and how to quarantine. That system is not able to keep up.”He said public health departments were already overwhelmed this summer when the state was seeing around 700 new cases each day. With daily case numbers now over 2,000, Westergaard said local departments need more support.On Thursday, Wisconsin Department of Health Services Secretary Andrea Palm said the state and local health departments have hired around 1,200 contact tracers. “(Local departments need) probably at least twice as many people as we have,” Westergaard said. “But that’s not the only thing that’s really concerning. There’s a lot of functions that local public health professionals do other than contact tracing and all of those things, whether it be immunizations or follow up for other communicable diseases, are all going to be strained as well.” Several county health departments, including Rock, Pierce and La Crosse counties, have gone to “crisis standards” for contact tracing, prioritizing the highest risk situations. According to data from the DHS, around 17 percent of people tested for the coronavirus in Wisconsin over the last week have been positive. Westergaard said the high rate of positive tests is a signal to health officials that the virus is more widespread than people realize. He said people with COVID-19 symptoms are generally able to get tested by their health care provider. But Westergaard said individuals without symptoms who have been exposed to the virus are not able to get a test as easily because of limited resources.
October 5 COVID-19 Test Results –The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 882,104 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 38,103 positive tests. Over 3,100 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 4.3% (red line is 7 day average). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the June low. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high – see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. If people stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low in November (that would still be a large number of new cases, but progress).
Arkansas Republican County Chair Dies of COVID-19 Weeks After His Committee Hosted Maskless Gathering -The chairman of an Arkansas county Republican committee died from complications associated with COVID-19 on Tuesday – less than one month after his organization hosted a maskless gathering with other elected leaders.Steven Farmer, who served as the chairman of the Craighead County Republican Committee, died on Tuesday after a weeks-long battle with the coronavirus that resulted in a stay at the ICU and a ventilator, his daughter and the organization announced. The news comes just three weeks after his committee hosted an event with Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Rep. Louis Gohmert (R-TX), who contracted COVID-19 in July, for Reagan Day. Photos of the event show few attendees wearing masks and minimal social distancing. Arkansas state Rep. Dan Sullivan, who is currently spearheading a lawsuit to overturn the mask mandate and other health directives in his state, also appears to have spoken at the event.
10 more die from COVID-19 as hospitalizations continue to increase – Another 609 South Dakotans have been diagnosed with COVID-19 while 10 more people have died from the virus. That’s according to the South Dakota Department of Health’s latest daily coronavirus data update. The number for new cases reflected in Wednesday’s update were outpaced by recoveries, of which there were 688. With the 10 additional deaths, the number of people in South Dakota who have died from COVID-19 increases to 258. Map: Where is coronavirus in South Dakota? View data on ages, counties and gender Three of the deaths were people over the age of 80, four aged 70-79 and three aged 60-69. Seven were men and three were women. They were from the following counties: Beadle, Codington (2), Lake, Lincoln, Meade, Pennington (2), Turner and Union. People with COVID-19 are currently occupying 273 hospital beds in the state, up from 250 the day prior. South Dakota Health Secretary Kim Malsam-Rysdon said despite the uptick in hospitalizations, the state’s medical bed supply remains adequate. A total of 37 hospital facilities in South Dakota were serving COVID-19 patients, and 10 were using ICU beds to treat COVID-19 patients, she said.
October 8 COVID-19 Test Results –The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 930,355 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 54,870 positive tests. Over 5,600 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.9% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high – see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. If people would stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low in November – but that is looking unlikely.
North and South Dakota record fastest growing COVID-19 outbreak in US – Both North Dakota and South Dakota reported the highest per capita infection rates in the country this week. On Wednesday, South Dakota reported the highest number of per capita cases in the US, according to data from John’s Hopkins, with around 57 cases per 100,000 residents. North Dakota followed slightly behind, with roughly 56 cases per 100,000 residents. Cases and deaths are rapidly rising in North and South Dakota, mainly due to the refusal of state leaders to implement preventive measures. The surge comes just two months after the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally at which nearly 500,000 people converged in western South Dakota for a week of partying in August, with most attendees flouting measures aimed at limiting the virus’s spread, such as wearing masks. In North Dakota, COVID-19-related hospitalizations and new cases have hit record highs for the previous two days. Active new cases rose to 3,964 on Thursday, as well as total cases to 26,040 and active hospitalizations to 132. New cases in North Dakota also increased to a record-breaking 527 for the state. These figures were compounded by the reports of 41 deaths in the past three days out of 321 total for the state. South Dakota faces a similar sharp rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths, breaking previous records in previous days. On Wednesday, South Dakota saw a record 1,030 new cases reported, and the total active cases surpassed 5,000 on Thursday. In the past three days, 29 people died from COVID-19 in South Dakota out of 272 total deaths, pointing to a growing number of deaths. This growth will be exacerbated in both North and South Dakota due to the lack of major hospitals, since the states are sparsely populated in mostly small towns and rural areas. Last year, North Dakota population numbers were just above 762,000, and South Dakota population numbers were over 884,000.
Coronavirus Tracker – WSJ – (7 graphics) To chart the extent of the coronavirus pandemic, The Wall Street Journal’s trackers show the areas where Covid-19 infections are rising fastest, trends in new U.S. cases and deaths, and totals for countries around the world. The graphics below are updated regularly, using the latest data available from Johns Hopkins University.
Illinois Coronavirus Updates: Highest One-Day New Cases Since May – NBC Chicago – Illinois health officials on Thursday reported the highest one-day total number of coronavirus cases since mid-May as the state’s positivity rate in testing also increased. Those figures were reported the same day Chicago announced the winners of its competition fielding ideas for how restaurants can continue outdoor dining in the colder weather months. Here are the latest updates from across Illinois on the coronavirus pandemic today (Oct. 9): Twenty-six counties in Illinois are now at a “warning level” for coronavirus, the state’s health department said FridayThe warning means each of the counties saw increases in two or more COVID-19 “risk indicators,” the health department said.The counties now under a warning include: Case, Christian, Clay, Clinton, Coles, Crawford, Effingham, Fayette, Henderson, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lake, Lee, Mason, Massac, Pulaski, Richland, Saline, Shelby, Union, Vermilion, Whiteside, Winnebago, Warren.Last week, 28 counties were at a “warning level.” The week before that it was 17.”Although the reasons for counties reaching a warning level varies, some of the common factors for an increase in cases and outbreaks are associated with university and college parties as well as college sports teams, large gatherings and events, bars and clubs, weddings and funerals, family gatherings, long-term care facilities, correctional centers, schools, and cases among the community at large, especially people in their 20s,” the Illinois Department of Public Health said in a statement.IDPH said officials observed businesses “blatantly disregarding mitigation measures, people not social distancing, gathering in large groups and not using face coverings.” “Mayors, local law enforcement, state’s attorneys and other community leaders can be influential in ensuring citizens and businesses follow best practices,” IDPH added. Illinois health officials on Friday reported 2,818 new coronavirus cases and 35 additional deathsover the last 24 hours.
Ohio reports 1,840 new coronavirus cases, a new record: Friday update – – Ohio reported 1,840 new coronavirus cases Friday, which is a new record for reported infections in a single day.The closest Ohio has come to this figure was on July 30, when there were 1,733 in one day. Before that, the record was 1,679 new cases on July 17.Ohio has had 166,102 coronavirus cases since the outbreak settled in the state earlier this year, according to the Ohio Department of Health.Gov. Mike DeWine, on Thursday, when he last addressed the public on the coronavirus, expressed concern about the growing case numbers and pleaded with Ohioans to wear masks and socially distance.Although not using the words “second wave,” DeWine said he was particularly concerned about the coming weeks, with colder weather and people spending more time indoors. Many K-12 and college students have in-person classes, which may be contributing to the spike.Each day since Sept. 29 — except for weekends when case reports are lower because fewer local health departments are reporting them — newly reported cases have been over 1,000, the threshold that public health officials describe as high for the state. They’d like to see daily numbers come in below 1,000. The U.S., as a whole, may be headed for a new spike. The number of new cases reached a high in mid-July and had been decreasing until the end of September, when it started to rise again, according to data tracked by The New York Times.
NC reports 2,000 COVID-19 cases; hospitalizations increase – The N.C. Department of Health and Human Services reported 2,034 new COVID-19 cases Friday,bringing the state’s total during the pandemic to 227,431.Another 25 people have died from the virus, the state reported, bringing North Carolina’s total deaths to 3,747.DHHS reported Friday that 1,065 people people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, with 95% of hospitals reporting. Hospitalizations are on an upward trend this week, after topping 1,000 Tuesday for the first time since Aug. 21. Hospitals admitted 390 suspected COVID-19 patients over the last 24 hours, DHHS reported Friday.About 5.7% of tests for COVID-19 were positive on Wednesday, the most recent day with available data. That’s down from over the weekend, when 8% of tests came back positive, but still higher than the 5% that health officials want to see.As more public schools transition from online-only classes to in-person instruction, DHHS officials on Thursday laid out COVID-19 testing strategies that school districts could use.There are 126 confirmed COVID-19 cases associated with 15 active K-12 clusters, according to DHHS. A cluster is when there are five or more cases associated with a school.More school districts are moving toward resuming in-person instruction, after Gov. Roy Cooperallowed elementary schools to reopen for full-time, daily instruction. Middle and high schools remain subject to state limits on the number of students who can be on campus.
U.S. COVID-19 cases hit two-month high, 10 states report record increases | Reuters – New cases of COVID-19 in the United States hit a two-month high on Friday with over 58,000 infections of the new coronavirus reported and hospitalizations in the Midwest at record levels for a fifth day in a row, according to a Reuters analysis. Ten of the 50 states reported record one-day rises in cases on Friday, including the Midwestern states of Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri and Ohio. Wisconsin and Illinois recorded over 3,000 new cases for a second day in a row – a two-day trend not seen even during the height of the previous outbreak in the spring, according to Reuters data. The Western states of Montana, New Mexico and Wyoming also reported their biggest one-day jumps in cases, as did Oklahoma and West Virginia. Nineteen states have seen record increases in new cases so far in October. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/2SFLb7o) Amid the resurgence in cases across the nation, President Donald Trump, who recently contracted COVID-19, is set to resume his re-election campaign on Saturday by addressing supporters from the balcony of the White House. Trump and his administration have faced criticism for their handling of the pandemic that has claimed over 213,000 lives in the country, as well as for a lax approach to mask-wearing and social distancing in the White House. There is no federal mandate to wear a mask, and 17 states do not require them, according to a Reuters analysis.
US Coronavirus: Several regions sound alarm as US reports most Covid-19 daily cases in nearly 2 months – Just as the US reported the highest number of daily Covid-19 infections in nearly two months, several experts offered grim outlooks if Americans don’t take the right precautions. Johns Hopkins University reported a total of 57,420 new positive cases of coronavirus in the United States on Friday. That is the most reported cases in a single day since August 14, when there were 64,601 new cases, the data show. Friday’s surge of 57,420 cases marks the third consecutive day of 50,000+ reported cases in the US, Johns Hopkins says. The last time the US reported three consecutive days of more than 50,000 cases was also in mid-August. “What they’ve done is opened up everything as if nothing had ever happened there, and you and I could be talking probably in eight to 10 weeks, and I will likely bet that Florida will be a house on fire,” Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told CNN Friday. White House Coronavirus Task Force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx also cautioned Friday of “early suggestions” of alarming trends in the Northeast, urging residents to take action and help prevent the spread before the virus takes off again. “The actions this time have to happen at the personal level, in our private homes, rather than just the public spaces,” she said. In New Jersey, officials are monitoring several areas of concern after the governor said the state was beginning to see “sobering” numbers. And in New York, several cluster areas prompted Gov. Andrew Cuomo to issue strict restrictions in areas with large Orthodox Jewish communities, sparking protests and criticism from some local leaders. As of October 8, the moving average of new cases per million people in the Northeast increased by 91% since September 8, according to data from Johns Hopkins. And across the US, 28 states — scattered mostly across the Midwest and Northeast — are reporting more new cases than the previous week, according to Johns Hopkins. Only two states — Maine and Nebraska — are reporting a decline. Worrying trends are being recorded across the US. At least 22 states reported more than 1,000 new cases on Thursday. And the country’s daily case count average — now more than 46,000 — has surged by 12% since the previous week.Hospitalizations are also on the rise. Especially worrisome are the statistics from Wisconsin, experts say, which in recent days has reported its highest daily case count, hospitalization number and death toll.After issuing an emergency order limiting public gatherings, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers warned the state was in a “dire place” and announced a field hospital would be opening next week to help respond to the surge in patients. “We’re in a crisis right now and need to immediately change our behavior to save lives,” he told residents earlier this week. Health officials have warned things could get worse as winter approaches and the Covid-19 pandemic is stacked against flu season. Projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show more than 2,900 Americans dying every day by January. And the latest US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ensemble forecast shows the US death toll could climb to 233,000 by the end of the month.
Death records show which groups have been impacted the most by COVID-19 in Georgia – Each person lost to COVID-19 leaves behind a puzzle piece — a clue– to help us learn from the disease and save lives.That puzzle piece is their death certificate. Channel 2 Action News examined information from nearly 13,000 death certificates of Georgians who died in hospitals this year. It paints a picture of the human toll of the coronavirus and who it’s disproportionally killing in our state. To learn more about the people this disease is killing, Channel 2 Action News made a Georgia open records request to the Department of Public Health for death certificate information for the nearly 13,000 people who died in hospitals this year from April 1 through Aug. 1.“I think if you look at the overall picture of what these certificates tell us it’s probably a pretty good picture of what the ensemble of deaths from various causes really has been,” explained Dr. Richard Rothenberg with Georgia State University’s School of Public Health.He explained that underlying conditions, and the events leading up to a person’s death are valuable tools to researchers trying to understand the disease.“There are obviously lots of slip ups and difficulties with death certificates, but on average. They do a pretty good job of defining the major causes for an individual,” Rothenberg said.Of the nearly 13,000 deaths Channel 2 examined, COVID-19 is listed as a contributing factor in at least 2,600 of them. That’s about 20%. On a majority of deaths under 65 that listed underlying conditions, obesity, hypertension and diabetes were listed. “Georgia is one of the worst affected states in terms of obesity,” Dr. Ben Lopman with Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health said. “[It] might be one of the things that makes us as Georgians, or particular groups for sure, to be more susceptible to these severe outcomes, including death.”Lopeman said there are things death certificates doesn’t tell us about the virus, like why the US is experiencing a rise in non-COVID deaths during this pandemic and how many people are skipping critical healthcare visits, like cancer treatments, because they’re scared to visit their doctor.But he said deaths are a clear way epidemiologist to learn from the disease because there were testing challenges confirming COVID in the living.Lopman did note a disturbing trend — that Black and brown Americans are disproportionally impacted by COVID.“I think the racial differences have been surprising, and that highlighted really the large inequalities in, in terms of health in our state and in our country,” Lopman said. Here in Georgia we leaned COVID is killing more Black people in hospitals. 48% of the people who died were African American or Black, while 46% were white. To put that number into perspective, according to the US Census Bureau about 60% of our state’s population is white, and only about 30% is Black.
Covid-19: Excess Fatalities vs. Administrative Counts — Menzie Chinn – In contrast to earlier weeks, the most recent “excess fatality” count is solidly in the positive region, despite the severe under-reporting bias in the most recent observations. To see this, consider the most recent estimates for each of the previous vintages of “excess fatalities” calculated as actual-expected. Figure 1: Excess fatalities, 10/7 vintage (purple red), 9/30 vintage (violet), 9/23 vintage (chartreuse), 9/16 vintage (red), 9/9 vintage (green), 9/2 vintage (orange), 8/25 vintage (blue). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Source: CDC , various vintages, and author’s calculations. This pattern suggests to me we should take with circumspection (1) the most recent counts of excess fatalities as they are likely to be revised substantially upward; and (2) administrative counts, either from CDC or from alternative compilations, as they are possibly missing many actual Covid-19 related deaths. Extending point (1), it is unclear to me whether excess fatalities are indeed falling, as they seem to have been pretty constant from the week ending 7/25 through week ending 8/15. (The Economist has a discussion of excess fatalities around the world.) Here are the various series of interest, latest available. Figure 2: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC 10/7/2020 vintage, OurWorldinData version of 10/8 accessed 10/9/2020 and author’s calculations. One conclusion that seems obvious: Cumulative excess fatalities through week ending 8/25 are substantially higher than administratively defined Covid-19 cumulative fatalities.
Coronavirus dashboard for October 9: everybody has to touch the hot stove at least once (7 graphs)
- Total confirmed US infections: 7,605,218*
- Average infections last 7 days: 46,869
- Total US deaths: 212,762
- Average deaths last 7 days: 717
In the last 4 weeks, the average number of new infections has risen again. Here is the breakdown by regions: Here is the same for deaths: The early outbreak in the NYC metro area remains the single most deadly outbreak per capita by far. So here is the rate of deaths for the past 12 weeks: mThe South and parts of the West, which were the epicenters of the second outbreak during the summer, have seen their numbers decline, while the Midwest in particular has seen its number increase sharply. The increase in the Northeast is primarily being driven by Massachusetts and Rhode Island, although NY and NJ have seen significant new increases as well.What we have seen since the pandemic started is that, when it gets out of control, there is a pain threshold after which States take action – like enforcing mask wearing and closing bars – and individuals get serious about limiting their exposure, that brings the rate of new infections down. A very good example is in the below graph, which tracks those States in the Sou th which were at the epicenter of the summer outbreak: All of them (except Tennessee) have seen their rates of infection decline by more than 50% since then. The same is true for Arizona, California, and Nevada in the West:Meanwhile, States in the Upper Midwest and Mountain areas, which had very low infections rates during the first few months of the pandemic, were lax and have let their infection rates grow out of control:They are now reaching the pain threshold, so we can expect counter-measures to finally be enacted, or taken voluntarily by individuals, to stem the spread.It seems that every State in every region has to learn the hard way. Getting lax leads to severe outbreaks, which leads to panic and vigilance – which ebbs over time in turn.
Third wave of COVID-19 expected to sweep across the United States – Recent trends in the number of new cases of COVID-19 in the United States suggest a third wave in the pandemic will strike soon as the virus is continuing its spread through the Midwest and western states. After the high peaks in mid-July, new cases had slowed, downtrending until reaching their most recent low in mid-September at just over 35,000 cases per day on a seven-day moving average. The numbers have started to climb again, getting close to 44,000 per day, on average, a 26 percent increase in just a few weeks. Globally, the number of daily new cases of COVID-19 has reached a high of 294,000 on a seven-day average. There have been 35.66 million cases and 1.045 million deaths in the ten months since it was acknowledged that the world was facing an outbreak of a novel coronavirus, a deadly respiratory pathogen no one on the planet had immunity against. In the pandemic’s chaotic and turbulent course globally, the United States has established itself as the persistent epicenter, having faced two waves in the spring and summer that has seen 7.67 million confirmed cases with 215,000 dead. The disease first heavily impacted the Northeast and then moved into the South along the sunbelt and is now deeply entrenched across the country. Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, noted eerily, “The latest information is that 90 percent of the country has not yet been exposed to the virus. The virus hasn’t changed and has the capacity to spread rapidly if given a chance.” For the significant majority that can still fall victim to COVID-19, the experience of the last ten months and the pandemic’s current course is a dire warning. The hospitalization of President Donald Trump after testing positive for COVID-19 has made clear how easily the virus can spread. The White House Rose Garden celebration ten days ago packed with 150 people with complete disregard for masking and social distancing was an apparent superspreading event that resulted in the infection of several senators, White House staff and President Trump and his wife. According to USA Today, the White House on Monday rejected the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) offer to investigate the event by tracking and testing those exposed. Ironically, on the same day the CDC also posted on its website their long-awaited clarification stating that the coronavirus can spread through airborne transmission. “There is evidence,” they write, “that under certain conditions, people with COVID-19 seem to have infected others who were more than 6 feet away.”
Nearly all of Iran on coronavirus red alert as cases, deaths hit records – (Reuters) – Iran’s Health Ministry said on Monday nearly the whole country was on a coronavirus red alert as cases and deaths rose to record levels, with a member of the state task force’s warning field hospitals might be needed if people flout the rules. Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari told state television that 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces were “red” zones, the highest alert level, while four were at the next “orange” level. Authorities registered a record high 3,902 new cases in the past 24 hours, with the total number of identified cases in the worst-hit country in the Middle East rising to 475,674, Lari said. She said 235 patients had died in the past 24 hours, equalling a daily death toll high set on July 28, bringing the total death toll to 27,192. Officials have complained that many have defied regulations to wear face masks and some families used lockdowns to go on trips, helping spread the virus with hospitals nearly full. “If people keep going on weekend trips…, our patients might have to go to field hospitals,” Masoud Mardani, a member of the state coronavirus task force, told Khabaronline website. On Saturday, schools, libraries, mosques and other public institutions in the capital Tehran closed for a week as part of measures to stem the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases. Similar closures have been also imposed in Zanjan province, northwest of Tehan, and cities in several other provinces, shutting museums, theatres, gyms, cafes and hair salons, state media said. Because of coronavirus concerns, Iran has banned flights to Iraq to block trips by Iranians to the neighbouring country for the annual pilgrimage of Arbaeen, which draws large crowds. Land borders to Iraq have also been closed.
Face masks made compulsory in public in Tehran as COVID toll rises (Reuters) – Mask wearing has become mandatory in public in the Iranian capital and violators will be fined, President Hassan Rouhani announced on Saturday as the country battles a third wave of coronavirus infections. The daily death toll from COVID-19 reached a record of 239 this week in Iran, the worst hit country in the Middle East. On Saturday, the Health Ministry reported 195 deaths in the past 24 hours, taking the total toll to 28,293. There were 3,875 new cases, ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari told state TV. Masks have been compulsory in indoor public spaces since July, although no penalties were imposed. Now they are mandatory in public both indoors and outdoors in the capital Tehran. Rouhani said in televised remarks that anyone caught without a mask would be fined 500,000 rials and those infected with the coronavirus who do not self-quarantine or inform friends and colleagues of their illness would be fined 2 million rials. The Iranian rial fell to a new low against the U.S. dollar on Saturday as the country reels from the coronavirus pandemic and U.S. sanctions. The dollar was selling for as much as 304,300 rials on the unofficial market, up from 295,949 on Friday, according to foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.The United States slapped fresh sanctions on Iran’s financial sector on Thursday. Tehran has accused Washington of undermining its ability to pay for basic necessities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Schools, mosques, shops, restaurants and other public institutions in Tehran closed for a week on Oct. 3 in an effort to curb the spread of the virus. The city’s governor extended the closure on Friday for another week.
Israel’s second coronavirus lockdown is fraying nerves, amid protests, confusion and violence.– Israel was the first country to enter a second national coronavirus lockdown, but with new daily cases of the coronavirus reaching up to 9,000 recently,, and with public trust in the government plummeting, there has been little letup in a growing sense of chaos and loss of control. Several factors are complicating its struggle with a surge in coronavirus cases and deaths that, relative to the size of the population, is among the worst in the world. Curbs on protests under the new lockdown – limiting gatherings to 20 masked people, two meters apart and no farther than about half a mile from their homes – have backfired. Israelis calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is standing trial on corruption charges and has been a focus of blame over the country’s handling of the pandemic, have staged hundreds of smaller demonstrations, even as protesters face an increase in attacks by their opponents and the police are also accused of violence. The authorities are also struggling to prevent large gatherings in the country’s ultra-Orthodox communities during the Jewish High Holy Days, which began on Sept. 18 and extend until Oct. 11. Dr. Ronni Gamzu, Israel’s coronavirus czar, said last week that 40 percent of those testing positive came from the ultra-Orthodox community, even though it makes up only about 13 percent of the population. Some Hasidic sects insisted on holding indoor prayers to celebrate Sukkot, the Jewish harvest holiday. Stormy confrontations broke out on Sunday in some ultra-Orthodox areas. But the large weddings that were blamed for a surge of infections among Israel’s Arab minority over the summer have subsided, after Arab mayors acted to enforce restrictions on large gatherings. There has been a significant decline in new cases among Arab citizens of Israel.
France and UK Set Record for Daily Coronavirus Cases – Britain and France both posted record high rises in the daily number of coronavirus cases on Saturday evening. France reported 17,000 new cases, with 49 additional deaths on the same day. More than 32,000 people have now died of the virus in France, and more than 606,625 people have been infected. The rate of positive coronavirus tests rose to 7.9% from 7.7% in the country. Bars and restaurants are closed in the southern port of Marseilles, and rising infection rates mean similar closures could soon apply in the capital, Paris. Mask-wearing is compulsory, even outdoors, in a number of French cities. In Britain, the Health Ministry reported almost 13,000 new cases, almost double the cases reported on Friday. The British government said the sudden spike was due to a “technical issue” which caused a delay in reporting previous cases. Britain’s coronavirus death toll stands at 42,317 – higher than any other country in Europe. In a bid to curb the spread of the virus, the government has imposed restrictions on social gatherings and warned that tougher measures could follow if infection rates don’t start to drop. . Europe is in the middle of another surge in cases, as new restrictions are being placed across the continent.
- Germany: Data from the Robert Koch Institute showed that cases increased by 2,279 on Sunday. The death toll rose by 2, taking the total to 9,529.
- Italy: The country reported 2,844 new cases on Saturday, its highest tally since April, when the country was still in lockdown. The death toll rose by 27. The Italian government announced measures to curb the rise in numbers to be introduced soon, which will make wearing masks in public compulsory.
- Ukraine: Former President Petro Poroshenko has been hospitalized for double pneumonia, according to his wife. “Despite the fact that my husband has double pneumonia, he is strong-willed and is demonstrating this in the fight against the disease,” Maryna Poroshenko said. The 55-year-old tested positive for the virus just a few days ago.
- Ireland: The chief medical officer of Ireland said the country was seeing rising numbers after the country reported the highest rise in cases since April. Ireland has taken measures such as banning indoor restaurants and travel in and out of the capital, Dublin.
- Poland: After reporting 1,934 new cases on Sunday, Poland’s total caseload has cracked the 100,000 mark. The country has registered 100,074 cases and 2,630 since the pandemic began. Though it was one of the first countries to go into lockdown, Poland’s conservative government has not committed to another despite recording three daily case records in the past week.
- India: The South Asian nation has recorded 75,829 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of infections to 6.5 million, according to data from the Health Ministry. India’s death toll of almost 102,000 is the world’s third-highest behind the United States and Brazil.
- Tunisia: The North African nation is set to ban all public gatherings, and reduce working hours for public sector employees. The decision was taken due to the rise in coronavirus cases, over fears that the healthcare sector would be unable to cope with the high numbers. The country faces a shortage of intensive care beds
Paris will close its bars and many cafes for at least two weeks starting on Tuesday. – Bars in Paris will close for two weeks starting on Tuesday, the authorities there announced on Monday, as France tries to stem a surge of coronavirus cases in its capital. The measure will also affect most cafes, which in many cases serve alcohol, but little or no food. Restaurants will be able to remain open if they follow a strict health protocol. Paris joined a handful of other French areas that have been placed on maximum alert because of a continued rise in infections, especially among older people. Local health authorities said the capital had been above the thresholds for the top alert level – more than 250 coronavirus cases per 100,000 people generally, more than 100 per 100,000 in the elderly, and more than one-third of intensive care beds used for Covid-19 patients – since last Thursday. On average, there are over 3,500 new infections a day in Paris and 203 active clusters, especially among young people for whom the incidence rate is over 500 infections per 100,000 people. In France generally, the seven-day average for new daily cases is above 11,000. The Paris region has as many patients hospitalized for coronavirus as it did in May, when the country was just exiting its two-month lockdown. Mayor Anne Hidalgo and the head of the Paris police said at a news conference on Monday that the bar closures would apply to Paris and the surrounding suburbs. Gyms, dancing halls and enclosed swimming pools will be closed to adults, though minors will be allowed to use gyms and pools. “The epidemic is going too fast,” said Didier Lallement, the Paris police chief. “We need to brake now before our health system is submerged.” Restaurants will have to keep registers of customers for contact-tracing, distance tables by one meter, keep seating to no more than six per table and take payments at the table. Those restaurant rules will also apply in other maximum-risk areas, including the southern cities of Aix-en-Provence and Marseille, where the authorities had closed restaurants under a tightening of restrictions last month. But bars in those two cities will remain closed for at least another week. Starting on Tuesday, new restrictions will also apply to universities in areas on high alert, with classrooms and lecture halls operating at half capacity or below. Retirement home visits will become appointment-only, and with a maximum of two people per visit.
COVID-19 infections on the rise in Germany – There were 3,086 new cases of COVID-19 reported within the span of 24 hours in Germany yesterday – one of the highest rates since April. As of Monday, there have been 304,657 cases, of which 31,341 are active. Of the active cases, 414 patients are currently in a serious or critical condition. The age of the infected, for both mild and severe cases, has been decreasing as infections rise. The average age of those hospitalised has dropped to 37 years. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) made an ominous calculation in a press conference last week. There, she showed that the daily infection rate, which has doubled every month since July, following the current trend would reach 19,200 new infections per day by Christmas. This makes abundantly clear that Merkel’s administration knows full well the risk it is exposing the working population to by fully opening the economy. Like every other bourgeois government, the Grand Coalition is dead set on fully opening schools, businesses and events as well as train service and public transport, come what may. State and federal administrations have prescribed “herd immunity” for the population – that is, letting the virus spread freely. This was stated with uncommon candor by virologist Hendrik Streeck, who has a long history of playing down the virus.On the TV show “Anne Will,” on September 20, Streeck depicted a scenario in which the virus would become “part of our lives” and in which every social measure to fight its spread – testing, isolation, contact tracing – would be discontinued and the virus allowed to take its course. “The infection numbers will go up in the fall and winter,” said Streeck, “then we will no longer be able to follow up with testing. We will reach the capacity of our labs.” The German Ministry of the Interior made the meaning of this clear in a report from March 18 in which most scientists answered “the question: ‘what happens if we do nothing?’ with a worst-case scenario of over one million deaths in 2020 – just in Germany.”
UK COVID-19 cases triple in a fortnight – More than 14,000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported in Britain on Tuesday and Wednesday, tripling in a fortnight the number of people testing positive. Wednesday’s 14,162 cases, Tuesday’s 14,542 cases, along with Monday’s 12,594 new positive tests, saw cases mount to above 40,000 in the first three days of the week. Hospitalisations due to coronavirus are also surging. The 478 people admitted to hospital Sunday – up from 386 the day previous – was the largest daily figure since early June and a one-day leap of 25 percent. This week, 165 deaths have been announced, taking the highly massaged official overall total to 42,515. These figures shatter claims made by the government and its media apologists in recent days that the escalation in case numbers was a statistical anomaly due to a temporary “glitch” in the government’s track and trace system. The mass infections are the inevitable result of the Johnson government’s herd immunity policy that led to the ending of lockdown and the reopening of the economy in June, followed by September’s reopening of schools, colleges, and universities. The trajectory is pointing toward infection rates and hospitalisations well above those levels reached during the height of the pandemic, which resulted in the loss of over 65,000 lives according to reliable excess death studies. The UK has no adequate containment policies or functioning track and trace system in place. So-called local lockdowns, focusing on personal behaviour, while schools and workplaces remain open, has seen the virus spread like wildfire. Scientists’ predictions of up to 50,000 cases and 200 deaths a day by November could yet be an underestimation. Each day brings more horrific proof that schools and universities in particular are breeding grounds for the virus. The ToryFibs twitter account reported Wednesday that 2,805 schools have infections, many with multiple cases.
Tens of thousands of UK COVID-19 cases and contacts went unreported -The UK recorded 12,872 new coronavirus cases on Saturday and 22,961 new cases Sunday. These figures included 15,841 cases registered between September 25 and October 2 which were not previously reported because an Excel spreadsheet containing the data became too large and failed to update. There are two clear conclusions which flow from this fiasco: the pandemic is continuing to accelerate rapidly across the UK, and the government’s test and trace system, six months into operation, is completely dysfunctional. In the last week, the media was filled with reports that the increase in COVID-19 infections in the UK had “levelled off” or was “slowing”. Not one organisation sought to investigate how this seeming miracle had occurred. It was left to the government to admit that the figures used to support these claims were wildly inaccurate – out by some 4,000 a day. The truth is that the seven-day rolling average for daily new cases has increased from 4,964 on September 25 (when cases began to go unreported) to around 9,500 as of Monday morning – rapidly approaching the peak averages of 11,000 and 12,000 recently recorded by Spain and France. Another 12,594 cases were reported in the UK on Monday evening. According to the COVID-19 Symptom Study app, whose data is increasing being relied upon by the government as more accurate than its own, there are in reality more than 20,000 new cases in the UK each day. The reproduction rate ( R number) of the virus nationally has increased for the fourth consecutive week, up to between 1.3 and 1.6, but these figures are trailing by two to three weeks current infection rates. The 7-day average for COVID-19 patients admitted to UK hospitals has increased from a low of less than 100 a day at the end of August to 380 as of September 26. The north of England is suffering significantly worse rates of infection than the national average. Manchester’s infections increased to 495.6 cases per 100,000 in the week to October 1, from 223.2 the week before, according to official figures. Liverpool climbed from 287.1 to 456.4, Knowsley from 300.3 to 452.1, Newcastle from 256.6 to 399.6, Nottingham from 52 to 283.9, Leeds from 138.8 to 274.5 and Sheffield from 91.8 to 233.
Britain is heading ‘into a long winter’ as Covid second wave strikes – FT – On August 14, Boris Johnson sparked panic on the beaches when he decided to add France to England’s quarantine list. Thousands of Brits dashed home from a country recording 30 Covid-19 cases per 100,000, hoping to avoid two weeks of self-isolation at the end of their vacation.While danger lurked abroad – British tourists were told to venture to foreign climes “with their eyes open” – Mr Johnson was confident the situation at home was under control. Workers were urged to return to their offices; the taxpayer subsidised cheap meals under an “eat out to help out” scheme.The new Covid-19 test and tracing system – on which the government had spent more than it spends on nursery and university education at 0.6 per cent of national income – would allow the country to get back to work and enjoy life, while suppressing the virus until a vaccine was available. Since then, a second wave of coronavirus has engulfed the UK at a pace not seen in other large European countries. Mr Johnson’s “world-beating” test and trace system struggles to cope on good days; on bad days it is a farce.Cities in the north of England have been particularly badly hit, with rates above 500 per 100,000 in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle – at least 15 times higher than the rate in France on that chaotic day in August.From having a rate of infection per 100,000 people of 11.4 in the week up to August 15, well below the EU average of 20.5 and the US rate of 110.7, the UK’s positive case rate has now exceeded both the EU and US totals. It stands at 133.7, higher than the US rate of 96.9 and the EU rate of 77.2. Mr Johnson used to say he would contain a second wave of Covid-19 with a localised “whack a mole” strategy. In the north of England, the moles are winning. While cases of coronavirus remain subdued in London and the south-east, in deprived northern towns and cities they are popping up fast.“The virus has spread right across the community. We are seeing lots among the older population. I wish we could pinpoint how it is spreading. We don’t know. We need a total lockdown,” said Sean Donnelly, deputy leader of Knowsley council, the authority next to Liverpool that now has the second highest rate of infection in the country. “Track and trace has failed. We are getting passed cases seven days after they tested positive. That is too late,” he said. In the week to October 8, there were 907 new cases, and a rate of 601.2 per 100,000 population, up from 365.2 a week before.
‘A Definite and Sustained Increase’: Europe Leads Record Single-Day Worldwide Covid-19 Infection Surge – The World Health Organization reported a record one-day increase in global coronavirus infections on Thursday, with 338,779 new cases registered in the past 24 hours.According to Reuters, the record single-day surge is largely driven by 96,996 new cases in Europe, which is now reporting more new cases than the United States, India, and Brazil – the world’s three most infected countries. India reported 78,524 new Covid-19 cases, followed by Brazil with 41,906 new infections, and the United States, with 38,904 new cases.Covid-19 cases rose in 54 countries, with surges occurring in Argentina, Canada, and several European nations including France and Britain, which recorded record numbers of coronavirus infections.“We are seeing a definite and sustained increase in cases and admissions to hospital,” Dr. Yvonne Doyle, medical director for Public Health England, told Reuters. “The trend is clear, and it is very concerning.”The WHO reported Thursday that the worldwide Covid-19 death toll rose by 5,514 to 1.05 million, with a global total of just over 36 million cases since the beginning of the pandemic.The United States still leads the world in total Covid-19 cases – over 7.8 million people, or 2.38% of the population, have been infected, including President Donald Trump – and deaths, with over 217,000 fatalities. Across the U.S., 39 states reportedincreases in infections on Wednesday, with six states – Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming – registering record Covid-19 hospitalizations.“We’re in a crisis right now and need to immediately change our behavior to save lives,” said Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, who on Tuesday ordered bars and restaurants in the state to limit occupancy to 25% of capacity. “There’s no other way to put it, we are overwhelmed.”
State of emergency declared in Madrid as COVID-19 resurgence sweeps EuropeAs COVID-19’s resurgence sweeps Europe, Spain’s Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government was forced to declare a state of emergency in Madrid Friday. Over 600 cases per 100,000 residents had been recorded in the past seven days, over double the nationwide average of 250 per 100,000 residents. The day before, a Madrid court had struck down the PSOE-Podemos government’s proposed restrictions on travel and social contacts for over four million of Madrid’s 6.6 million inhabitants. The restrictions, which the government can now enforce after declaring the state of emergency, have no impact on nonessential work and in-person teaching in schools, however. The PSOE-Podemos government’s reckless drive to reopen the economy and schools at all costs has resulted in Spain emerging as currently the worst-impacted country in Western Europe. As of Friday evening, Spain had recorded over 890,000 infections, and major papers have admitted that Spain’s total losses from the disease are around 50,000. The surge of infections in Madrid is hitting a health care system that has been on the brink of collapse for weeks. As the WSWS previously reported, intensive care units were already running at 90 percent capacity in late September. Expecting a further deterioration of conditions in the hospitals, the Madrid regional government imposed a law this week banning all medical staff from talking to the media. New daily infections across Europe Friday surpassed the mark of 100,000 for the second day running. Europe saw 102,357 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday and 110,051 on Friday, according to Worldometers. Since Tuesday, daily deaths across Europe have hovered around the 1,000 mark. Europe is re-emerging as a major centre of the pandemic. Europe recorded 460,000 COVID-19 cases last week, compared to 380,000 for North America and South America, according to Britain’s Daily Telegraph. Alongside Spain, France is witnessing the most rapid rise in new infections. Over 18,000 cases are being reported each day, and hospital wards are filling up with COVID-19 patients. The maximum alert level was decreed in Lille, Lyon, Grenoble, and Saint Étienne, after being decreed in Paris, Marseille and Aix. This entails the closure of bars and indoor sports venues, while restaurants are allowed to remain open under tighter restrictions.
Dutch government’s malign neglect accelerates resurgence of COVID-19 – The Netherlands has become a major hot-spot in western Europe for COVID-19 infections, with record numbers of confirmed infections each day. Daily infection rates are skyrocketing, with many clusters amid the Netherlands’ 17 million population – in the capital, Amsterdam, the political centre, The Hague, and the port city of Rotterdam.When COVID-19 first hit the Netherlands in February, the government deliberately took only half-hearted measures as the virus spread in the four major cities – Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht. Its so-called “intelligent” lock-down was limited to closing schools, sports clubs and the hospitality sector, and to the 1.5 metres social distancing. The use of face masks was limited to public transport, and COVID-19 testing reserved for hospitalised patients with serious symptoms. By June, these limited restrictions were effectively lifted; bars, restaurants and schools all reopened.Due to the Dutch ruling elite’s reckless policy, by mid-September, record numbers of COVID-19 cases were reported with around 1,500 daily cases by September 14, nearly doubling by the end of the week, surpassing the number of cases confirmed during the initial surge in March-April. By the end of the first week of October, daily cases had surpassed 5,900. According to the National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM), 6,544 people had died of COVID-19 in the Netherlands on 8 October. The Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS) however, claims more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths in March-June alone, possibly because the RIVM did not count cases where COVID-19 was marked as cause of death, but it did not receive laboratory confirmation.
Europe records 100,000 daily coronavirus cases for first time – Europe surpassed 100,000 daily reported COVID-19 cases for the first time on Thursday, after countries such as Russia and United Kingdom saw no respite in the mounting number of infections every day in the past five days. Cases throughout Europe have been steadily rising over the past week even as new infections in worst-affected countries such as India and Brazil have shown signs of slowing down. The epicentre of the outbreak in the European region has moved to the United Kingdom, Russia, Spain and France which have reported at least over 10,000 cases each in the last three days. Russia reported its highest daily coronavirus cases ever since the last record in May on Friday, prompting Moscow authorities to mull closing bars and nightclubs. GRAPHIC: Daily COVID-19 cases: Russia, United Kingdom, France and Spain – GRAPHIC: New COVID-19 cases in Russia over 3 weeks – The United Kingdom recorded more than 17,000 cases on Thursday with the country’s Health Minister Matt Hancock warning that the United Kingdom was at a “perilous moment”. Many parts of northern England, Wales and Scotland have introduced tougher restrictions on social interaction to try to curb the growing spread of the disease. Britain has been reeling under a double whammy of coronavirus cases skyrocketing and an alarming case-to-fatality rate of 7%, among the highest in the world. More than six of every 10,000 people have died due to the virus in the country. The country’s fatality rate is in stark contrast to the United States at 2.8%, even though the United States has recorded more than four times the total number of deaths due to the virus compared to Britain. Europe currently has recorded over 16% of total global coronavirus cases and nearly 22% of deaths worldwide due to the virus. On Thursday, when daily reported cases breached the 100,000 mark, Eastern Europe was the worst affected region with over 33,600 daily reported cases. Among the 10 countries in the region, including Ukraine, Russia and the Czech Republic, eight posted record increases in cases in the past week.
New restrictions enforced in Europe as COVID-19 cases surge – – New restrictions have been unveiled across Europe as COVID-19 cases continue to rise on the continent, with several countries reporting record one-day rises in cases this week. Among the new rules are wider mask mandates, restrictions on social gatherings and curbs to the hospitality industry, just months after thespread of infection was seemingly under control and restrictions were eased. Italy, Germany and France all reported record single-day rises in cases, though that has not translated into the similar death counts seen in the early days of the pandemic. To curb the spread, Paris has been declared a “Maximum Alert Zone,” meaning all bars are now closed, restaurants are open with strict conditions, and the playing of music and sale of alcohol after 10 p.m. has been prohibited. On Wednesday 18,764 new cases were reported, as well as 80 coronavirus-related deaths. COVID-19 patients now take up more than 40% of all intensive care unit beds across Ile-de-France, the region surrounding Paris.This weekend four more French cities will have their status switched to a “Maximum Alert Zone.”In Italy, wearing masks is now mandatory in all indoor and outdoor spaces, and the government is attempting to combat the rise in cases by instituting local lockdowns to avoid closing businesses and schools nationwide again.”The state can’t ask citizens to wear masks in their own homes,” Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said at a press conference this week. “But we have a strong recommendation for all citizens: Even in our families we have to be careful.”The German Health Minister Jens Spahn said “the numbers are a worrying jump” as the country recorded over 4,000 daily infections on Wednesday,”At the moment it’s mainly young people getting infected, because they want to party, want to travel and because they feel invulnerable, but they are not,” he said.
Covid’s Comeback Is Bigger But Less Deadly, at Least for Now – The coronavirus isn’t sticking to its schedule. The deadly pathogen was always expected to make a comeback this winter, but an autumn rebound in infections across Europe and North America could make the colder months even more daunting than public health officials had anticipated. The pandemic’s resurgence is less deadly so far than during its bleak early months, when thousands were dying daily. The risk is that with official case numbers already jumping to records in many countries, caring for the sick will overburden hospitals. The return of the virus has been particularly pronounced in Europe, where long lockdowns brought the virus to heel following a deadly spring. After authorities eased restrictions in an effort to jump-start their economies, infection rates began climbing in Spain, France and other nations in August, fueled by vacationers and the virus’s insidious ability to spread from asymptomatic people. “When people went on vacation they really let their guard down,” said White House Coronavirus Task Force coordinator Deborah Birx at a Friday press briefing in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “We’re asking now that you’re back from vacation, put your guard back up, not only in the public places but in your private places, including your home.” The impact is being felt in both Europe, where many people take holidays in August, and in the U.S., where the effect has been creeping northward in the east and Midwest, Birx said. People should stop assuming that their families and close friends are free of infection just because they appear healthy, she said. “We take down our guard when we’re with people we know, and we assume that if I know you, you couldn’t have Covid,” she said. “The message has to change that we’re giving to the community, that community spread is now occurring in small gatherings day after day in households and families.” Infection rates are spiraling across much of the European continent. Over the past month, France has reported about 340,000 new cases, close to half the country’s cumulative total since the outbreak began. Yet deaths have risen by less than 1,800 — a rate of about 0.5% — after the country previously recorded more than 30,000. The U.K. has seen a similar trend. Countries that were less affected the first time around, such as the Czech Republic, became hot spots this fall. Even Germany, which weathered the spring better than many of its neighbors, is seeing growing case rates.In the U.S., the seven-day average of new cases climbed to 46,824 Thursday, the most since Aug. 19, according to the most recent Johns Hopkins University data. One trouble spot is New York City, where outbreaks in a handful of neighborhoods and suburbs have stirred fears that the former U.S. virus epicenter could see a second act.
With more than 1 million dead, who have been the victims of the coronavirus pandemic? – Researchers from Princeton Environmental Institute (PEI), Johns Hopkins University, and the University of California at Berkeley, recently conducted a larger contact-tracing observational study with public health officials in the southeast Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, involving 575,071 individuals who were exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The lead author, Ramanan Laxminarayan, found that 8 percent of infected individuals accounted for 60 percent of new infections, while 71 percent of infected individuals did not pass on the infection to any of their contacts. COVID-19 deaths occurred, on average, six days after hospitalization, versus 13 days on average in the US. As in other countries, the proportion of deaths is skewed to the older population. The study found, however, that children and young adults accounted for one-third of COVID cases and were a significant factor in the transmission of the virus. Additionally, children and young adults were prone to contracting coronavirus from people their age. “Kids are very efficient transmitters in this setting, which is something that hasn’t been firmly established in previous studies,” the lead author explained to PEI correspondent Morgan Kelly. This has significant implications for the reopening of schools as news of teachers succumbing to COVID-19 has made headlines. In the US, according to data provided by the American Academy of Pediatrics, as of October 1, there were 657,572 children infected with COVID-19 out of 6,231,564 total cases, or 10.6 percent. This puts the overall rate at 874 cases per 100,000 children in the population, after a series of weekly increases from 583 per 100,000 children as of August 20. Across 42 states and New York City, the death rate for children was 0.02 percent of those infected, while only 1.7 percent of children infected have been hospitalized. There have been 112 cumulative child deaths in the US. There is similar data for Europe and Asia. There are nonetheless some disturbing trends. After California, the most populous state and the one with the largest number of children infected with COVID-19, the states with the highest totals of children infected include Florida, Tennessee, Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina, across the south and southwest. Illinois is the only northern state high on the list. In percentage terms, the worst figures are in Wyoming and North Dakota in the north, and Tennessee and South Carolina in the south. The early northern hotspots for the pandemic – New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan – have some of the lowest rates for children, since the virus swept disproportionately through nursing homes.
SARS-CoV-2 Is an Unrestricted Bioweapon: A Truth Revealed through Uncovering a Large-Scale, Organized Scientific Fraud – Yan, Li-Meng, et al – Two possibilities should be considered for the origin of SARS-CoV-2: natural evolution or laboratory creation. In our earlier report titled “Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route“, we disproved the possibility of SARS-CoV-2 arising naturally through evolution and instead proved that SARS-CoV-2 must have been a product of laboratory modification. Despite this and similar efforts, the laboratory creation theory continues to be downplayed or even diminished. This is fundamentally because the natural origin theory remains supported by several novel coronaviruses published after the start of the outbreak. These viruses (the RaTG13 bat coronavirus, a series of pangolin coronaviruses, and the RmYN02 bat coronavirus) reportedly share high sequence homology with SARS-CoV-2 and have altogether constructed a seemingly plausible pathway for the natural evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Here, however, we use in-depth analyses of the available data and literature to prove that these novel animal coronaviruses do not exist in nature and their sequences have been fabricated. In addition, we also offer our insights on the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 may have originated naturally from a coronavirus that infected the Mojiang miners. Revelation of these virus fabrications renders the natural origin theory unfounded. It also strengthens our earlier assertion that SARS-CoV-2 is a product of laboratory modification, which can be created in approximately six months using a template virus owned by a laboratory of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The fact that data fabrications were used to cover up the true origin of SARS-CoV-2 further implicates that the laboratory modification here is beyond simple gain-of-function research. The scale and the coordinated nature of this scientific fraud signifies the degree of corruption in the fields of academic research and public health. As a result of such corruption, damages have been made both to the reputation of the scientific community and to the well-being of the global community. Importantly, while SARS-CoV-2 meets the criteria of a bioweapon specified by the PLA, its impact is well beyond what is conceived for a typical bioweapon. In addition, records indicate that the unleashing of this weaponized pathogen should have been intentional rather than accidental. We therefore define SARS-CoV-2 as an Unrestricted Bioweapon and the current pandemic a result of Unrestricted Biowarfare. We further suggest that investigations should be carried out on the suspected government and individuals and the responsible ones be held accountable for this brutal attack on the global community. (full paper embedded)
Covid-19 may have infected 10 percent of world’s population, WHO says – The head of emergencies at the World Health Organization said Monday its “best estimates” indicate that roughly 1 in 10 people worldwide may have been infected by thecoronavirus – more than 20 times the number of confirmed cases – and warned of a difficult period ahead.Dr. Michael Ryan, speaking to a special session of the WHO’s 34-member executive board focusing on Covid-19, said the figures vary from urban to rural, and between different groups, but that ultimately it means “the vast majority of the world remains at risk.”The estimate – which would amount to more than 760 million people based on a current world population of about 7.6 billion – far outstrips the number of confirmed cases as tallied by both WHO and Johns Hopkins University, now more than 35 million worldwide. More than one million people have died from the virus. Ryan said the pandemic would continue to evolve, but that tools exist to suppress transmission and save lives.“Many deaths have been averted and many more lives can be protected,” he said.He was flanked by his boss, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who minutes earlier led a moment of silence to honor victims as well as round of applause for the health workers who have strived to save them.Ryan said southeast Asia faced a surge in cases, Europe and the eastern Mediterranean were seeing an increase in deaths, while the situations in Africa and the Western Pacific were “rather more positive.” “Our current best estimates tell us that about 10 percent of the global population may have been infected by this virus,” Ryan told attendees from member governments who make up the executive board and provide much of its funding.
Did The WHO Just (Accidentally) Confirm COVID Is No More Dangerous Than Flu? –The World Health Organization has finally confirmed what we (and many experts and studies) have been saying for months – the coronavirus is no more deadly or dangerous than seasonal flu.The WHO’s top brass made this announcement during a special session of the WHO’s 34-member executive board on Monday October 5th, it’s just nobody seemed to really understand it. In fact, they didn’t seem to completely understand it themselves. At the session, Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO’s Head of Emergencies revealed that they believe roughly 10% of the world has been infected with Sars-Cov-2. This is their “best estimate”, and a huge increase over the number of officially recognised cases (around 35 million). Dr. Margaret Harris, a WHO spokeswoman, later confirmed the figure, stating it was based on the average results of all the broad seroprevalence studies done around the world. As much as the WHO were attempting to spin this as a bad thing – Dr Ryan even said it means “the vast majority of the world remains at risk.” – it’s actually good news. And confirms, once more, that the virus is nothing like as deadly as everyone predicted.The global population is roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10% have been infected that is 780 million cases. The global death toll currently attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections is 1,061,539. That’s an infection fatality rate of roughly or 0.14%. Right in line with seasonal flu and the predictions of many experts from all around the world. 0.14% is over 24 times LOWER than the WHO’s “provisional figure” of 3.4% back in March. This figure was used in the models which were used to justify lockdowns and other draconian policies.
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