Oil, Gas, And Fracking News Reads 23June, 2019 – Part 2

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 23 June 2019. Go here for Part 1.

This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.

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Greenpeace ends North Sea rig protest after 12 days – Greenpeace has ended a 12-day protest involving a drilling rig. Campaigners boarded the Transocean rig in the Cromarty Firth on 9 June, which had been bound for the Vorlich oil field east of Aberdeen. BP, which contracted the rig, had described the actions of the climate change campaigners as “reckless”. However, Greenpeace said the protest showed what people could achieve, and called on the oil giant to end drilling for new wells. The Transocean rig has been heading for BP’s Vorlich field, 150 miles (241km) east of Aberdeen, after protesters occupied it, delaying its departure from the Cromarty Firth for five days. The Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise then shadowed the rig into the North Sea, and the group said the rig was forced to turn back towards land. ‘Dedicated activists’ A swimmer with a banner also entered the water as part of attempts to block the rig’s path. The 12-day protest resulted in numerous arrests. John Sauven, executive director at Greenpeace UK, said: “For the past 12 days we’ve seen what one Greenpeace ship and a handful of dedicated activists can achieve.

Anti-fracking protester claimed disability payments – BBC News – A woman who chained herself to equipment during anti-fracking protests while claiming disability payments has been given a suspended sentence. Catherine Jackson, 51, pleaded guilty at Blackpool Magistrates Court to dishonestly claiming £5,392 of personal independence payments (PIP). The court she took part in “strenuous demonstrations” in Lancashire after saying she was in constant pain. She was sentenced to 23 weeks in jail, suspended for two years. In her claim for PIP, she had said she could “barely stand up” and slept most of the day because of extreme pain in her shoulder from arthritis, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said in a statement. She also said she suffered from anxiety and depression and could not leave the house. She was photographed at the fracking site in Little Plumpton shackled to equipment and was only released when police used angle grinders to break through the chains, the CPS said. Part of her defence was that the activity had helped her mental health condition, but the CPS said that was “unconvincing”.

North Sea Decommissioning Costs on the Rise – The discovery and production of 44 billion barrels of oil and gas in the UK’s North Sea since the 1960s has left the industry with the need to decommission 320 fixed installations, 3,000 pipelines and 5,000 wells at a cost, estimated by the UK’s Oil and Gas Authority, of between £ 45 and £77 billion. Taking the mid-way estimate of £ 58.3 billion, the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee report, March 2019 accepts HMRC’s calculation that £ 24 billion (USD 30.1 billion) would fall to the tax payer through tax reliefs. There remains significant uncertainty as to the potential cost to taxpayers, since new fields are still being commissioned and there is a higher degree of financial risk from default, because the majority of “late-life” and “new-entrant” operators will be smaller enterprises, likely unable to support the scale of liabilities carried by the majors. In such cases the tax payer will pay the full cost. Another consideration to be taken into account is the method of decommissioning. Full decommissioning, with plugging and abandoning wells and removing platforms to return the sea-bed to its natural state is the most expensive and environmentally challenging. Leaving the legs or partial decommissioning is less costly and leaving things in place and making installations safe is the cheapest. A case in point is the dismantling of Shell’s giant Brent Delta 3 storey rig platform, weighing 24,500 tons, in a single-lift operation using the heavy lift catamaran Pioneering Spirit. The operation left behind the three supporting 170 metre concrete legs in place in April 2017. In May 2017 The Daily Mail newspaper reported that the decommissioning of Brent Spar cost an estimated £500 million (USD 628 million). Whereas, the removal of 13,000 tons of steel from MCP-01, a concrete-based platform in the North Sea and its transport to Lerwick in Shetland and Stord in Norway for dismantling and recycling cost £250 million (USD 314 million), reports Lerwick Harbour Today in May 2019. It would have cost just £11.7 million to make safe and leave in place according to Jonathan Hughes, CEO of the Scottish Wildlife Trust. Such costs, allied to the environmental benefits, support the recent trend towards turning rigs into permanent artificial reefs for the benefit of marine life.

Ireland To Ban New Petrol, Diesel Vehicles By 2030 The Irish government plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030, as part of a major strategy to protect the environment. The aim is to ensure that all new cars and vans on Irish roads in 11 years’ time are electric vehicles. The proposed legislation was among 180 measures in the government’s Climate Action Plan, published on Monday. The document also includes a target to implement an EU-wide ban on non-recyclable plastic by 2030. The Climate Action Plan states that the Republic of Ireland is “way off course” in its attempts to achieve its emissions targets. Unveiling the plan on Monday, the Environment Minister Richard Bruton said Ireland was “currently 85% dependent on fossil fuels”. He said that at a time when the state’s carbon footprint should be reducing, Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions “have been rising rapidly” and that trend had to be reversed. He arrived at the launch in Grangegorman, north Dublin, on a hybrid electric bus, accompanied by Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar and several other members of the cabinet. Mr Bruton said the plan was a roadmap to achieving existing 2030 emissions targets and would put Ireland “on a trajectory to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050”. The hope is that by the time the petrol and diesel vehicle ban is introduced in 2030 there will be 950,000 electric vehicles on Irish roads. The government is set to invest in a “nationwide” charging network to power the new vehicles. By 2025, at least one recharging point will be required at new non-residential buildings with more than 10 parking spaces.

EU May Crack Down on Turkey for Drilling in Mediterranean — The European Union will examine retaliatory measures against Turkey over its drilling activities in the southeastern Mediterranean, in a move that risks pushing relations between Ankara and Brussels to a new low. At a meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday, EU ministers invited the bloc’s executive and foreign policy arms “to submit options for appropriate measures without delay,” according to a joint communique by the bloc’s 28 governments. The move could pave the way for targeted sanctions against companies and individuals involved in the drilling activities. Governments also reiterated that talks on upgrading an EU-Turkey customs deal and on the Turkish accession to the bloc are frozen, according to the decision. Drilling off the coast of Cyprus will have “serious immediate negative impact that such illegal actions have across the range of EU-Turkey relations,” the ministers said. Turkey and Cyprus are at loggerheads over offshore gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, as Ankara disputes Nicosia’s claims that the area is its exclusive economic zone. Turkey has sent exploration vessels into the area, with Cyprus protesting the move as a violation of its sovereignty and threatening to issue arrest warrants against those involved. The dispute adds to a series of disagreements between Western governments and Turkey in areas ranging from democratic standards to Ankara’s decision to purchase Russian defense missiles, which could allegedly compromise NATO systems. In Tuesday’s decision, EU governments said that “Turkey continues to move further away from the European Union.” Cypriot foreign minister Nicos Christodoulides said he expects the communique to be translated into economic and diplomatic sanction proposals. “We are now waiting verbal solidarity to turn into concrete decisions,” Christodoulides told Bloomberg.

Reuters is now a unit of us info-war command, reporters and investors revolt Stephen Adler (lead image), the American chief executive of Reuters news agency, has ordered into publication three US Government-directed stories targeting the Russian oil company Rosneft – the first in mid-April, and two published over the past week. Adler’s operations support US coup plans in Venezuela and US sanctions against Rosneft and its chief executive, Igor Sechin.The three publications – the first already corrected by the news agency; the second commissioned from a writer outside the company; the latest missing its byline or author’s name – have triggered dismay among Reuters’ reporters worldwide. A New York source claims Adler’s promotion of US Government-sourced propaganda violates the Reuters Trust Principles which have regulated the international news agency since 1941.The first two Reuters principles Adler is accused of breaking are that “Reuters shall at no time pass into the hands of any one interest, group, or faction; [and] that the integrity, independence, and freedom from bias of Thomson Reuters shall at all times be fully preserved.”Bloomberg sources, commenting privately, say they are delighted at the damage to their rival’s reputation. A Bloomberg reporter, briefed by the same sources as Adler’s,repeated one of the Reuters stories against Rosneft last week. On June 14 Reuters published a lengthy report on the use of Rosneft corporate jets to fly Chief Executive Sechin to seaside holiday locations over the past four years. “Using publicly available data, Reuters tracked 290 Rosneft flights between January, 2015 and May, 2019. Of those round trips, 96 took place during Russian public holidays or between Friday lunchtime in Moscow and Monday morning. Since the start of 2015, Rosneft corporate jets traveled eight times to Sardinia’s Olbia airport, 15 times to the Maldives and seven times to Spain’s Palma de Mallorca, according to the flight tracking data from planefinder.net, flightaware.com, opensky.network.org and flight-data.adsbexchange.com.” Reuters headlined the report “exclusive”. No reporter’s name was identified.

Large oil spill found near Finnish shore in Baltic Sea – A large oil spill has been discovered Thursday southwest of the Finnish island of Uto in the Baltic Sea, the Finnish Coast Guard said in a statement. “A considerable oil spillage was found in the Finnish territorial waters 40 kilometers [25 miles] southwest from Uto,” the statement read.The spill stretches for 9 miles and is 1,640 feet wide. The oil film is 0.4 inches thick in some places. Coast Guard ships have been sent to the area to investigate the incident. They took oil samples and will check fuel of vessels that have recently passed through the area for matches.

Coast guard fights oil spill in Turku archipelago –The coast guard detected the spill on Thursday evening some 46 kilometres southwest of the island of Utö. The oil slick, which the coast guard said leaked from a passing vessel, spans over ten kilometres in length. Current estimates put the extent of the spill between 9 and 39 cubic metres. “During the night we managed to collect floating oil from the sea and cleanup efforts will continue on Friday,” said Mikko Hirvi, chief of operations at the West Finland Coast Guard.To combat further environmental damage, officials are using aerial oil spill surveillance to pinpoint smaller oil slicks as the spill breaks up.Investigators plan to analyse samples from the spill with those taken from fuel tanks of vessels travelling near the accident site.“We’ll compare spill samples with those taken from ships in the area to determine the source,” Hirvi explained. The coast guard said it seemed unlikely that any oil would reach the shoreline thanks to removal efforts.

The Polar Silk Road Could Be A Gamechanger For Natural Gas –It’s been well over a year since the then-United States Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis accused Russia and China of being “revisionist powers” each working its way toward making a power grab on the world stage and announced that the U.S. would be shifting its international relations focus away from fighting terrorism and instead prioritize what Mattis referred to as a “great power competition.” Now, 17 months later, it looks like Mattis’ nightmares are coming true as Russia and China have increasingly worked together in defiance of the Trump administration in a kind of diplomatic ‘marriage of convenience’. Just this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping made his eighth official visit to Russia in a trip highly publicized in both Russian and Chinese media. “This year marks the 70th anniversary of our diplomatic ties and China’s ties with Russia are deepening at a time of profound change in the global geopolitical landscape,” remarked former Chinese ambassador to Britain Ma Zhengang, as quoted by the South China Morning Post. One of the most current examples of this newly strengthened relationship between Beijing and Moscow is a new joint venture between state-owned shipping corporations in Russia and China to create a “Polar Silk Road” in the Arctic Sea. a year ago, officials in Beijing announced that China would be pursuing investment across the Arctic Route to encourage commercial shipping through the northern passage as a part of the country’s Belt and Road Initiative. Belt and Road is a massive undertaking involving investments programs worth trillions of dollars, which will go toward connecting Asia and Europe by sea, rail, and road to promote more trade between the continents. This week, reporting by the Wall Street Journal this week tells us that “China is breaking into Arctic transport through a joint venture between the country’s biggest ocean carrier, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co., and its Russian counterpart PAO Sovcomflot to move natural gas from Siberia to Western and Asian markets.” Both China and Russia are members of the Arctic Council, which the Wall Street Journal describes as “an intergovernment forum […] which considers development issues and sailing rights as the polar ice recedes” before going on to say that China, in particular, has “made investment [in Arctic shipping lanes] a priority to advance its energy and shipping interests”.

Indonesians seek $140 mln over Montara spill – Indonesian seaweed farmers were set to seek more than A$200 million ($137 million) from Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production in a trial starting on Monday, to cover damage they say they suffered after Australia’s worst oil spill. The class action represents more than 15,000 seaweed farmers who claim to have lost their livelihoods in the years after oil gushed into the Timor Sea for more than 74 days following an explosion at the Montara oil rig in August 2009. “We are now 10 years on from this environmental disaster and the oil company responsible and its wealthy Thai parent continue to deny the devastating impact their oil spewing out uncontrollably for months on end had on Indonesian seaweed farmers,” Ben Slade, a lawyer at Maurice Blackburn, which is running the case, said in a statement. The lead plaintiff in the case is Daniel Sanda, who claims that the seaweed industry in Rote Ndao and Kupang, more than 200 km (124 miles) away from the Montara rig were destroyed by PTTEP’s failure to safely operate it. More than 30 witnesses from Indonesia, including seaweed farmers and oil spill, chemistry and environmental experts will give evidence at the 10-week trial in Sydney, Maurice Blackburn said. PTTEP Australia declined to comment on the case as it is currently before the Australian courts.

Decaying oil tanker off Yemen coast threatens massive oil spill, says UN – The United Nations has warned that a “decaying” oil tanker moored 60 km north of Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah threatens to spill more than one million barrels of oil into the Red Sea. UN aid chief Mark Lowcock told the UN Security Council on Monday that he was working with the Houthi rebel forces to access the deteriorating tanker and take steps to avert a crisis that could be worse than the Exxon Valdez oil spill of the late 1980s. “If the tanker ruptures or explodes, we could see the coastline polluted all along the Red Sea,” Lowcock, the under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, said. “Depending on the time of year and water currents, the spill could reach from Bab el Mandeb to the Suez Canal, and potentially as far as the Strait of Hormuz,” he added. The oil tanker, named Safer, was constructed in 1976 and has been moored off Yemen’s coastline near Hodeidah since 1988, acting as a floating storage and offloading (FSO) terminal to receive Yemeni export crude and load it onto vessels. Safer has not been in use since the Houthis took control of Hodeidah in 2015, but it is estimated to hold 1.1 million barrels of oil. Because of its age, a lack of maintenance, and the breakdown of the crude inside, it has led to a growing risk of a chemical explosion. “I leave it to you to imagine the effect of such a disaster on the environment, shipping lanes and the global economy,” Lowcock said. “If a major spill occurs, the world will surely demand answers from anyone who could have prevented the catastrophe but chose not to.” Lowcock did not provide a timeframe on when a leak or explosion may happen, but experts said the risk of such a disaster increases as flammable gases build up. In April, the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, said the Safer had effectively become a “massive bomb” thanks to the flammable gas that was building up inside and could be ignited at any moment by a spark or stray bullet.

Russia’s Budget Can Work With $40 Oil – Representing 11 percent of global supply, Russia produces 11.3 million b/d of oil. In a coordinated effort with OPEC and others to increase prices, Russia has promised to keep 230,000 b/d of its output (as compared to October levels) off the market. The deal that started on January 1 has worked: up over 40 percent, crude prices are having their best quarter ever, even though Russia’s March production was only 190,000 b/d below October’s amount. With 8-9 million b/d leftover after meeting domestic demand, Russia sits with Saudi Arabia as the leading exporter. And the surplus will remain strong since Russia is rather rare in having a declining population. More diversified, Russia’s budget can work with oil priced as low as $40 per barrel, compared to at least $75 for Saudi Arabia. Oil and gas account for 40 percent of Russia’s budget. Oil as a Strategic ResourceOil is the world’s most important source of energy, at nearly 35 percent of global supply. Oil currently has no significant substitute whatsoever. Annual global demand has therefore continued to rise by an average of 1.3 million b/d. Russia therefore realizes that oil will remain a vital strategic asset for decades to come, which is why it has strongly sought to control the pipelines in the energy-rich former Soviet republics and other surrounding areas. President Vladimir Putin is KGB-hardened, and his 1997 PhD dissertation was over 200 pages on how to exploit Russia’s vast natural resources for political gain. Moscow deploys a global grand strategy to leverage its national oil champions to partner with key rogue suppliers, such as joint ventures with Iran and Venezuela, while also seeking to supply China, India, Turkey, and the other developing countries with huge incremental demand.

Global economic slowdown hits oil consumption- Kemp (Reuters) – Global oil consumption rose last year at the slowest rate since 2014, as higher prices and broad deceleration in manufacturing activity and freight movements took their toll on fuel use and petrochemicals. Consumption is likely to rise even more slowly in 2019, given the further weakening of most manufacturing and freight indicators since the start of the year. World consumption increased by just 1.44 million barrels per day (1.46%) in 2018, according to the latest edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, published on June 11. Consumption growth slowed from 1.67 million bpd (1.72%) in 2017, 1.69 million bpd (1.78%) in 2016, and 1.85 million bpd (1.99%) in 2015 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2XYglIn). If the global economy experiences a mid-cycle slowdown this year similar to those in 2014/15 or 2011/12, consumption growth could decelerate to as little as 1.0 or 1.2% in 2019. Given current consumption of almost exactly 100 million barrels per day, that would imply an increase of just 1.0 to 1.2 million bpd in 2019. A full-blown global recession would obviously reduce growth even further, potentially well below 1.0 million bpd, and leave the market severely oversupplied. For the moment, all three major statistical agencies predict growth of around 1.2 million bpd in 2019, implying a mid-cycle slowdown but no recession. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) puts consumption growth at 1.22 million bpd, the International Energy Agency at 1.20 million and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at 1.14 million. But such sluggish growth in consumption poses a problem for OPEC because U.S. shale producers will capture all the increase in oil use this year, just as they did in 2018 and 2017.

COLUMN-OPEC’s market share is in long-term decline- Kemp – (Reuters) – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ share of the global oil market is progressively eroding as it attempts to keep prices artificially high by restricting its own production. OPEC’s share of global production fell to just 41.5% last year, the lowest since 2003, according to figures contained in the latest edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, published on June 11. OPEC’s share will almost certainly shrink even further this year, to the lowest level since 2002, and before that the early 1990s, given the organisation’s output cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. The organisation’s members progressively increased their market share between 2002 and 2008, but since then, their share has been on a downward trend, which shows no sign of reversing (https://tmsnrt.rs/2RmcGkY ). OPEC’s combined production was up by just 2 million barrels per day (5%) in 2018 compared with 2008, while non-OPEC output climbed by 9.6 million bpd (29%) in the same period. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, increased production by 1.6 million bpd (15%), while Iraq boosted output by 2.2 million bpd (90%). Outside OPEC, however, Canada raised output by 2 million bpd (62%), and the United States boosted output by 8.5 million bpd (126%), mostly as a result of increased flows from onshore shale fields. Saudi Arabia’s share of global output has remained stable since the 1990s, but many of the organisation’s other members have seen their share erode as a result of war, sanctions, unrest and mismanagement.

Hedge funds sell more oil, but balance of risks is shifting – Kemp (Reuters) – Hedge fund managers sold yet more oil last week as a weaker outlook for the global economy and expectations of a hit to consumption more than offset concerns about sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and other production problems. Hedge funds and other money managers were net sellers of another 96 million barrels of petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to June 11, exchange and regulatory data shows. Fund managers have now sold 396 million barrels in the six most important petroleum contracts over the last seven weeks – substantially reversing net purchases of 609 million barrels in the 15 previous weeks. Portfolio managers last week sold Brent (12 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE West Texas Intermediate (52 million), U.S. gasoline (8 million), U.S. heating oil (6 million) and European gasoil (18 million). The heaviest selling was concentrated in WTI, reflecting concerns about local overproduction of crude in the United States, and middle distillates, reflecting concerns about a global slowdown hitting freight and manufacturing. Hedge funds now hold just three bullish long petroleum contracts for every bearish short one, down from a ratio of almost 9:1 on April 23 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2InCFG8 ). From a fundamental perspective, the market is still delicately poised between bearish risks arising from a global slowdown and bullish risks from supply interruptions in the Middle East and elsewhere. From a positioning perspective, however, the balance of risks had swung from strongly bearish at the end of April to neutral or even slightly bullish by the middle of June. The shift is most evident in middle distillates, where funds are now running the biggest net short position in U.S. heating oil for almost two years. Fund managers have rarely held such a large short position except during a recession or an extended global slowdown such as that of 2015/16. Similarly, hedge funds are now running one of the most bearish positions in NYMEX and ICE WTI since the end of the oil market slump in early 2016. If the global economy slows further in the second half of the year, as most traders expect, and seems the most likely outcome, it will validate these bearish positions as prices come under further pressure. But if the economy avoids recession and re-accelerates, which remains possible, the race to close short positions and re-establish new longs would produce a ferocious short squeeze.

Oil prices slip as economic worries outweigh tanker tensions – Oil prices slipped on Monday as signs of an economic slowdown amid international trade disputes began to outweigh supply fears stoked by attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week. Brent futures fell 42 cents, or 0.7%, to $61.59 a barrel, having gained 1.1% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 52 cents, or 1%, at $51.99, having firmed by 0.4% in the previous session. “China’s industrial output growth (is) falling to the lowest level in 17 years amid trade tensions with the U.S. Today, oil markets will have to digest more demand concerns as India implemented retaliatory tariffs on a number of U.S. goods yesterday,” consultancy JBC Energy said in a note. Also sapping prices was the dim outlook for oil demand growth in 2019 projected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday, citing worsening prospects for global trade. Market expectations of a price rise had been shrinking consistently in the period leading up to the attacks. “Seven consecutive weeks of selling has now reduced the combined long in Brent and WTI crude oil by 41% to 421,000 lots, a near-four-month low,” said Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen “This is before the tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman briefly boosted prices before being capped again by demand fears and another counter-seasonal rise in US crude oil stocks.” Though danger of an immediate confrontation over last week’s tanker attacks – which the United States blamed on Iran but Tehran denied – appeared to recede, tensions over the strategic route remain high. A fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday said that Washington does not want to go to war with Iran but will take every action necessary, including diplomacy, to guarantee safe navigation in the Middle East. Prices received no boost from comments by Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih on Monday reiterating that OPEC was moving was towards a consensus on extending a production cut agreement in a meeting he predicted would convene in the first week of July.

Oil prices fall 1% as economic worries outweigh tanker tensions (Reuters) – Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday after more poor Chinese economic figures fanned fears of lower worldwide oil demand. Brent crude futures lost $1.07 to settle at $60.94 a barrel, a 1.73 percent loss. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 58 cents to settle at $51.93 a barrel, a 1.10 percent loss. Prices have fallen around 20% since a 2019 high reached in April, in part due to concerns about the U.S.-China trade war and disappointing economic data. China’s industrial output growth unexpectedly slowed to a more than 17-year low, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday. It grew 5.0% in May from a year earlier, missing analysts’ expectations of 5.5% and well below April’s 5.4%. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping could meet at the G20 summit in Japan later this month. Trump has said he would meet with Xi at the summit, although China has not confirmed the meeting. “All the major reporting agencies are reporting that demand is going to be weaker,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “That has played into the market malaise. Things we would normally rally off of, we’re not.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch lowered its Brent price forecast to $63 per barrel from $68 a barrel for the second half of 2019 on faltering demand. Worries remained about increased tensions in the Middle East following last week’s attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. The United States blamed the attacks on Iran but Tehran denied involvement. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that countries need to cooperate on keeping shipping lanes open for oil and other energy supplies to ensure stable supplies.

Oil traders have bigger worries than a new Hormuz tanker war – Platts Insight – Oil tankers ablaze in the Gulf of Oman and the US pointing the finger at Iran should be enough to send the price of the world’s most vital commodity skyrocketing.Instead, oil prices have barely budged. Traders are not buying into the theory that Tehran wants a war, but they are worried about demand.Dated Brent assessed by S&P Global Platts – the world’s most important oil benchmark – spiked by over 4% following the attacks on June 13 and traded briefly just above $62/b. On the face of it, this modest rise doesn’t reflect the risk to almost a fifth of the world’s oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 21-mile-wide channel separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula.“I see the limited reaction in the crude oil market as an indication of traders saying ‘hang on a minute’,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “If Iran did this it would be an open invitation to the US to step up its involvement and that should have sent the price much higher.”Supporting Hansen’s point, crude had futures tumbled earlier in the week, with Brent falling below $60/b for the first time since late January, after data showed a larger-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories. The combination of rising stockpiles, tepid demand growth and fears of a slowing global economy has been enough to wipe $13 off the value of a barrel of Brent crude since May, despite the recent attacks on oil shipping and infrastructure in the Middle East. Last week’s attacks were described by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as “an unacceptable campaign of escalating tension by Iran”. The Islamic Republic has already been blamed for orchestrating clandestine attacks last month on tankers moored off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE. Tehran denies responsibility despite Iranian officials threatening to close down Hormuz, in response to US sanctions preventing the regime from exporting oil. “While many market participants see the recent security incidents as business as usual for the region, we see an abundance of escalation risks in large part because the US sanctions are subjecting Iran to almost unprecedented economic pain.” Instead of fretting about what could happen, traders have continued to focus their minds on the fundamentals of supply and demand. US crude inventories climbed 2.21 million barrels at the beginning of June to 485.47 million barrels. America’s stockpiles of crude – excluding its strategic reserves – have added almost 50 million barrels to their tanks since the end of the first quarter.

Oil prices fall as OPEC struggles to set date for meeting – Oil prices fell on Tuesday in Asia as OPEC and its allies struggled to set a date for a meeting to discuss output policy. US Crude Oil WTI Futures were down 0.2% to $51.87 by 12:13 AM ET (04:13 GMT). International Brent Oil Futures slipped 0.1% to $60.89. Concerns on reports that OPEC and its allies continued to struggle to set a date to discuss an extension to supply cuts were cited as headwind to prices today. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih indicated at the weekend that the June 25 OPEC meeting and the June 26 conference of the cartel with its non-member allies called OPEC+ was more or less off because Russia wasn’t agreeable to those dates. Meanwhile, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said he was willing to holds talks in July, according to a Reuters report. It was previously expected the meeting would be held in late June. Oil prices received a boost since last week amid attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Traders are also paying close attention to developments in Sino-U.S. trade talks. US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping could meet at the G20 summit in Japan later this month to discuss trade-related issues. Trump has said he would meet Xi at the event, although China has not confirmed the meeting.

Oil prices hold steady amid Middle East tensions, weak economic data – Oil prices steadied on Tuesday, caught between rising tensions in the Middle East and signs that economic growth is being hit by trade tensions between the United States and China. Brent crude futures were up 4 cents at $60.98 a barrel by 0055 GMT. They fell 1.7% in the previous session on concerns about slowing global growth. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were 1 cent lower at $51.92. They dropped 1.1% on Monday. The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its gauge of business growth in New York state posted a record fall this month to its weakest level in more than 2-1/2 years, suggesting an abrupt contraction in regional activity. U.S. business sentiment has sagged as tensions over trade have escalated between China and the United States and on signs of softness in the labor market. “The market is in a rut and desperately in need of some robust economic data to get it out of this funk,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets in Bangkok. Oil prices have fallen around 20% since 2019 highs reached in April, in part due to concerns about the U.S.-China trade war and disappointing economic data. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping could meet at the G20 summit in Japan later this month. Trump has said he would meet Xi at the summit, although China has not confirmed the meeting. Putting further pressure on oil, the U.S. energy department said on Monday that shale oil output is expected to reach a record in July. But tensions in the Middle East are likely to keep prices supported, analysts said.

OilPrice Intelligence Report: Are Oil Markets At A Turning Point? – Oil prices started down on Tuesday but jumped quickly on hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal. President Trump said that he will have an “extended meeting” with Xi Jingping next week in Japan on the sidelines of the G-20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by more than 300 points on the news. Pompeo says U.S. doesn’t want war but keeps option on the table. “We don’t want war. We’ve done what we can to deter this,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday. While the U.S. says Iran was behind the tanker attacks, some experts say there isn’t enough evidence. Meanwhile, Iran said its uranium enrichment would breach the limits of the 2015 nuclear deal within 10 days if Europe did not help it circumvent U.S. sanctions. President Trump seemed to downplay the conflict, calling the tanker attacks “very minor,” indicating a disagreement within his administration. Saudi Arabia is pushing for an extension of the OPEC+ production cuts and also plans on pressing participating countries to abide by their limits rather than overproducing, a Saudi oil adviser told the Wall Street Journal. That could take 300,000 to 400,000 bpd off of the market.. Oil production at Iraq’s massive West Qurna 1 field in the south has hit 465,000 bpd, up from 440,000 bpd. For the first time, a group of top banks will include greenhouse gas emissions in their decision-making when they provide loans to shipping company, according to Reuters. A group of 11 banks, making up a fifth of global shipping finance, will establish carbon intensity metrics. Demand for naptha is a leading indicator of the health of the global economy because it is used in gasoline as well as in a range of petrochemicals. As Bloomberg reports, naptha demand right now is really weak, with refining margins at their weakest in years. “Naphtha demand is simply very sensitive to economic sentiment and growth,” Jan-Jacob Verschoor, London-based director of Oil Analytics Ltd., told Bloomberg. “The trade war with escalating tariffs, has killed manufacturing sentiment in the East, thereby weakening margins of petrochemical plants.”

WTI Holds Best Gains In 5 Months After API Reports Modest Crude Draw — Oil spiked almost $3 intraday (biggest jump in 5 months), surging higher after trading with a $51 handle all the way up to above $54 after OPEC and its allies moved closer to agreeing on a meeting date to extend supply cuts and Mario Draghi raised hope for even more stimulus to pump up demand. Prices got a further boost after Trump and Xi confirmed they will meet in Japan next week to relaunch trade talks after a month-long stalemate. “Tomorrow’s Fed announcement after a two-day meeting may set the stage for oil for the rest of the month,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “If they come off very dovish than oil should rally hard.” API

• Crude -812k (-1.75mm exp)
• Cushing +520k (+30k exp)
• Gasoline +1.46mm (+900k exp)
• Distillates -50k (+700k exp)

After the two previous weeks surprised traders with notable builds (in crude and products), traders once again expect a draw in the latest week and API confirmed a modest 812k drop in crude inventories. 5th weekly build in gasoline inventories however. After its biggest day in 5 months, WTI hovered around $54.20 ahead of the API data and barely budged on the print.

Oil Prices Inch Up as OPEC Edges Closer to Agreeing on Meeting – – Oil prices edged up on Wednesday in Asia following reports that OPEC and its allies are close to agreeing on a date for their next meeting.U.S. Crude Oil WTI Futures gained 0.3% to $54.28 by 12:57 AM ET (04:57 GMT). International Brent Oil Futures rose 0.2% to $62.23.Citing Venezuela’s oil minister, Bloomberg said the OPEC+ group would likely meet in Vienna on July 1-2 to discuss production policy for the latter half of this year.Meanwhile, reports that China and the U.S. would resume trade talks after a stalemate were also cited as supportive for the oil markets.In a tweet overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would meet China’s Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit next week, adding that he had a “very good” phone conversation with Xi.His tweets boosted investor sentiment, as some were skeptical if the two leaders would meet this month. Looking ahead, traders’ attention will turn to the weekly crude inventories report from the government’s Energy Information Administration, which is due later in the day.

WTI Spikes After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw – WTI is modestly lower overnight, back below $54, after a ‘meh’ inventory report from API following the oil market’s best day in 5 months. This slide comes despite Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the U.A.E. all agreeing they want to keep restraining production in a bid to buttress crude amid signs of faltering demand.As Bloomberg notes, however, investors will focus on refinery consumption and imports for their impact on total supply. “Historical data indicates another rise in utilization; shipping data indicates imports at best remaining unchanged,” says Thomas Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group Ltd in Wellington, Florida. “This should result in a drawdown in crude inventories” DOE

• Crude -3.106mm (-1.75mm exp)
• Cushing +642k (+30k exp)
• Gasoline -1.692mm (+900k exp)
• Distillates -551k (+700k exp)

After two weeks of surprisingly large crude builds, expectations (and API confirmed) were for a modest draw but DOE data surprised with the largest crude draw in six weeks… With the ongoing slide in rig counts, expectations continue to view production levels declining over the next few months and they did for the second week in a row…

Oil Slips Below $54 — Oil slipped below $54 a barrel after a short-lived spike as anxieties about global trade and a supply glut overshadowed record gasoline consumption in the U.S. Futures in New York closed 0.3% lower on Wednesday after earlier rising by almost 1%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, more than any of the 12 analysts in a Bloomberg survey expected. Demand for gasoline hit a record 9.93 million barrels a day and stockpiles of the motor fuel unexpectedly declined. The report came hours after OPEC and its allies officially proposed an early July date to discuss new supply cuts, ending weeks of speculation about whether the group of major producers could overcome divisions. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates — OPEC’s three biggest members — all want to keep restraining production amid signs of faltering economic growth, according to statements in recent days. That and the bullish EIA report “all begin to reduce the uncertainties for an oil market that has a whole bunch of them, maybe the biggest of which is where demand is going to go,” said Rob Thummel, managing director at Tortoise, a Kansas-based money manager that oversees $21 billion in assets. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery fell 14 cents to $53.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark price notched its best one-day advance in five months on Tuesday as OPEC and its partners discussed an extension while the U.S. and China said they would revive stalled trade talks. Brent for August settlement fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $61.82 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange, after closing 2% higher on Tuesday. Oil has slipped about 19% since late April as the prolonged trade spat dented investor confidence. Tensions in the Middle East, including the latest rocket attack near an Exxon Mobil Corp. workers’ camp in southern Iraq, are heightening market uncertainty.

Oil slips below $54 as trade fears outweigh US gasoline demand – Oil slipped below $54 a barrel after a short-lived spike as anxieties about global trade and a supply glut overshadowed record gasoline consumption in the U.S. Futures in New York closed 0.3% lower on Wednesday after earlier rising by almost 1%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, more than any of the 12 analysts in a Bloomberg survey expected. Demand for gasoline hit a record 9.93 million barrels a day and stockpiles of the motor fuel unexpectedly declined. The report came hours after OPEC and its allies officially proposed an early July date to discuss new supply cuts, ending weeks of speculation about whether the group of major producers could overcome divisions. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates – OPEC’s three biggest members – all want to keep restraining production amid signs of faltering economic growth, according to statements in recent days. That and the bullish EIA report “all begin to reduce the uncertainties for an oil market that has a whole bunch of them, maybe the biggest of which is where demand is going to go,” said Rob Thummel, managing director at Tortoise, a Kansas-based money manager that oversees $21 billion in assets. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery fell 14 cents to $53.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark price notched its best one-day advance in five months on Tuesday as OPEC and its partners discussed an extension while the U.S. and China said they would revive stalled trade talks. Brent for August settlement fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $61.82 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange, after closing 2% higher on Tuesday. Oil has slipped about 19% since late April as the prolonged trade spat dented investor confidence. Tensions in the Middle East, including the latest rocket attack near an Exxon Mobil Corp. workers’ camp in southern Iraq, are heightening market uncertainty.

Oil Dips as Trade War Fears Pip U.S. Crude Draw, Potential Rate Cut – Even a crude drawdown and potential U.S. rate cut down the road couldn’t help oil bulls. Crude prices settled down on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported the first U.S. crude stockpile draw in three weeks. The market also bucked expectations for a late rebound by remaining down after the Federal Reserve indicated it was open to an interest rate cut if needed. Monetary easing basically weakens the U.S. dollar and stimulates investments in dollar-denominated alternatives like oil, gold and other commodities. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 14 cents, or 0.3%, at $53.76 a barrel. The U.S. crude benchmark rallied almost 4% on Tuesday, its biggest one-day gain in five months, after President Donald Trump tweeted that he would be meeting his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping next week at the G-20 to resume trade talks. The president’s tweet raised hopes that the two leaders would find a way to resolve the escalation of tariffs in both countries, which businesses fear could spark a global recession. London-traded Brent crude, the benchmark for oil outside of the U.S., closed the official trading session down 29 cents, or 0.5%, at $61.85 per barrel. Crude oil inventories decreased by 3.11 million barrels in the week to June 14, according to the EIA. That easily beat the 1.08-million-barrel draw analysts had expected for last week, though it was nowhere close to offsetting the combined build of nearly 9 million barrels in two previous weeks. Gasoline inventories unexpectedly decreased by 1.69 million barrels, compared to expectations for a gain of 0.94 million barrels. Stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil, diesel and other premium transport fuels such as jet and rail fuel, dropped by 0.55 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a build of 0.71 million.

Oil prices rise as US stockpiles drop, OPEC agrees meeting date – Oil prices rose over 1 percent on Thursday as official data showed U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected and as OPEC and other producers finally agreed a date for a meeting to discuss output cuts. Brent crude futures had risen 82 cents, or 1.3%, to $62.64 by 0026 GMT. They dropped 0.5% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 79 cents, or 1.5%, at $54.55 a barrel. WTI fell 0.26% in the previous session. After swelling to near two-year highs, U.S. crude stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, compared with analyst expectations for a draw of 1.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Refined products also posted surprise drawdowns due to a rise in refining and crude exports, as well as a drop in crude production. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to meet on July 1, followed by a meeting with non-OPEC allies on July 2, after weeks of wrangling over dates. OPEC and its allies will discuss whether to extend a deal on cutting 1.2 million barrels per day of production that runs out this month. Momentum for an agreement appeared to be building as the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister told Al-Bayan newspaper that an extension is “logical and reasonable”. “Oil price volatility is likely to persist, but the upcoming OPEC meeting should serve to provide the markets with a reasonable backstop and will offer some much-needed respite for prices,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets in Bangkok. Expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its next meeting and confirmation that the chief U.S. trade negotiator will meet his Chinese counterpart before a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week are also supporting markets.

Crude Leaps as OPEC+ Eyes Meeting Date – Oil surged to its biggest gain in five months as OPEC and its allies moved closer to a meeting to extend supply cuts while the European Central Bank raised hope of a new stimulus to pump up demand. Futures in New York rose as much as 4.6%, taking off on word that OPEC had proposed a mid-July gathering with Russia and other partners after weeks of uncertainty over their plans. Speaking at a forum in Portugal, ECB President Mario Draghi said “additional stimulus will be required” if the economic outlook doesn’t improve. The OPEC+ coalition, which pumps more than half the world’s crude, has been bickering for a month over the timing of their meeting, even as output curbs that helped resurrect prices earlier this year near expiration. A meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday could further improve the market’s outlook, if it follows Europe’s lead. “Tomorrow’s Fed announcement after a two-day meeting may set the stage for oil for the rest of the month,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “If they come off very dovish than oil should rally hard.” Prices got a further boost after the U.S. and China said their presidents will meet in Japan next week to relaunch trade talks after a month-long stalemate. They gave back some of the gains after a report that the White House explored the legality of demoting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, raising worries about political interference with the central bank. Also see: An Obscure Hydrocarbon Contains Bad News for the Global Economy West Texas Intermediate for July delivery rose $1.97 to settle at $53.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier jumping by the most since Jan. 9. Brent for August settlement gained $1.20 to settle at $62.14 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $8.77 premium to WTI for the same month.

Oil rises on fears of US attack on Iran – Oil prices rallied rose on fears of a U.S. military attack on Iran that would disrupt flows from the Middle East, which provides more than 20% of the world’s oil output. Brent crude was up 85 cents, or 1.3%, at $65.30 a barrel. The global benchmark jumped 4.3% on Thursday and was up more than 5% for the week, in its first weekly gain in five weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 39 cents, or 0.7%, at $57.45 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark surged 5.4% on Thursday and was on track for a 9% increase this week. “Crude prices are spiking on increased Middle East tensions after Iran shot down a U.S. drone in what the U.S. claims is international airspace,” said Jason Gammel from Jefferies. Iran said it had shot the drone over its territory. Iranian officials told Reuters on Friday that Tehran had received a message from U.S. President Donald Trump through Oman overnight warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent. The officials said they had responded by saying that any attack would have regional and international consequences. They also said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was against talks but said they would convey the U.S. message to him. The New York Times reported on Friday, citing sources, that Trump had approved military strikes against Iran but pulled back from launching the attacks. Tensions have been on the rise because U.S. sanctions on Iran have severely reduced oil exports from OPEC’s third largest producer and Washington has blamed Tehran, which denies any role, for a series of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf. “There is no doubt that a severe disruption to the transit of oil through this vulnerable route would be extremely serious,” said consultancy FGE Energy in a note.

Oil prices spike after Iran shoots down US drone in Gulf – – Oil rose more than 5% Thursday after Iran shot down a U.S. military drone, raising fears of a military confrontation between Tehran and Washington. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its next meeting, stimulating growth in the world’s largest oil-consuming country, and a drop in U.S. crude inventories also supported prices. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $2.89, or 5.4%, to $56.65 a barrel after surging as much as 6% around 10 a.m. ET. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $2.79, a 4.5% increase, at $64.61 a barrel. “The risk of a military conflict in the Middle East has risen because of a ratcheting up of tensions between the United States and Iran,” said Abhishek Kumar of Interfax Energy in London. “Elsewhere, the U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled its willingness to loosen monetary policy over the coming months, which is being perceived as favorable to oil demand.” The drone was downed in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian surface-to-air missile, a U.S. official said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the drone was flying over southern Iran. Tension has been rising in the Middle East, home to over 20% of the world’s oil output, after attacks on two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for oil supplies. Washington blamed Tehran for the tanker attacks. Iran denied any role. Concern about slowing economic growth and a U.S.-China trade dispute has pulled oil lower in recent weeks. Brent reached a 2019 high of $75 in April. The prospect of further rate cuts could prove the more significant factor for oil, said Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob, should Iran-U.S. tension not escalate. “The Fed and the cutting of rates is something that will provide more substantial support,” he said. Also propelling oil higher on Thursday was a decline in U.S. crude inventories and the prospect of prolonged supply restraint by producer group OPEC and its allies.

US oil surges to $56.65 after Trump says Iran made a ‘mistake’ -U.S. oil jumped on Thursday after Iran shot down a U.S. military drone, prompting President Donald Trump to blast Tehran on Twitter and fueling concerns of a conflict between the two countries. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $2.89, or 5.4%, to $56.65 a barrel after surging as much as 6% around 10 a.m. ET. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $2.79 – a 4.5% increase – at $64.61 a barrel.Trump took to Twitter Thursday morning to criticize what U.S. officials say was Iran’s attack on a U.S. surveillance drone earlier in the day, saying that Tehran made a “very big mistake.”Trump said later Thursday that the public will “find out” about whether the U.S. plans to retaliate with a military strike, but said he finds it “hard to believe it was intentional.”The drone downing came amid a standoff between Washington and Tehran, stemming from the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Prior to the drone attack over the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. accused Iran of recent attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf region.The strained relationship has sent crude prices soaring since more than 20% of the world’s oil output comes from the Middle East. Any threats to the free flow of oil through key chokepoint the Strait of Hormuz could dampen crude supplies.Also supporting oil were expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its next meeting, stimulating growth in the world’s largest oil-consuming country.“If we didn’t have the U.S. resource endowment, oil would absolutely be over $100. Pre-Permania, oil would be above $100″ says RBC head of global commodities strategy, Helima Croft. “We have a drone shot down, we have President Trump now tweeting Iran made a big mistake. I think the market may be waking up to the degree of risk entailed by these incidents,” Croft said.

Oil Posts Best Week Since 2016 as Trump Calls Off Iran Raids – Oil rocketed to its biggest weekly gain in more than two years as U.S. President Donald Trump’s aborted air strikes against Iran left Middle East tensions simmering with the endgame uncertain. Crude futures rose in New York on Friday to complete a 9.4% rally for the week. Trump tweeted that he called off raids because of concern the death toll wouldn’t have been “proportionate” to Iran’s downing of an American spy drone earlier this week. Trump said he was in “no hurry” to respond, despite a series of provocations in the oil-rich region.The canceled attack sent a “very confusing” message, Daniel Yergin, an oil historian and vice-chairman at IHS Markit Ltd., said in a Bloomberg TVinterview. “The fear is that this could pretty quickly escalate. There’s plenty of room for accident, misunderstanding, future incidents. The Iranians are in a corner.” West Texas Intermediate for August delivery closed 36 cents higher onFriday at $57.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark notched its biggest weekly increase since December 2016. Brent for August settlement rose 75 cents to $65.20 on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange. Gasoline futures, meanwhile, jumped 3.9% as a fire raged at the biggest refinery on the U.S. East Coast. Hostilities have been mounting in the Persian Gulf region, source of one third of the world’s oil, with the drone incident, missile strikes on Saudi Arabia and an attack on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, arocket exploded near an Exxon Mobil Corp. workers’ camp in Iraq.

Oil logs 9% weekly rise – biggest since late 2016; refinery fire jolts gasoline futures – Oil futures gained on Friday, with U.S. prices tallying a rise of nearly 9% for the week and highest settlement this month, lifted by expectations for economy-boosting central bank policy and continued Middle East tensions that could disrupt oil markets. Gasoline led the climb among energy futures, up almost 4% for the session, amid reports that a fire at a 150-year-old refinery complex in Philadelphia startled residents with explosions. Any permanent damage to the facility, the largest on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, was as yet unclear. On Friday, the new front-month contract, August West Texas Intermediate crude CLQ19, +0.30% rise 36 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $57.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on front-month prices, WTI finished at its highest since May 29. It rose 8.8% for the week, the biggest such percentage climb since the week ended Dec. 2, 2016, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Also on Nymex, July gasoline shot up by about 7 cents, or 3.9% to $1.856 a gallon, reacting to the refinery news. Futures prices for the fuel marked their highest settlement since late May and logged a weekly rise of 7.1%. July heating oil HON19, +0.31% rose 3.2 cents, or 1.7%, to $1.916 a gallon, ending 4.7% higher for the week. The fire broke out at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining Complex around 4 a.m. Eastern, spokeswoman Cherice Corley said, according to the Associated Press. Philadelphia Energy Solutions says the oil refining complex is the largest on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, processing 335,000 barrels of crude oil daily. This has the potential to have a big impact on gasoline, Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told MarketWatch, with the refinery accounting for 27% of the region’s refining capacity. However, the “devil is going to be in the details” – if there was “extensive damage that leads to months of downtime in the middle of driving season,” he said.

U.S. oil prices soar 10% in the week on fears of U.S.-Iran conflict (Reuters) – Oil futures rose about 1% on Friday, with U.S. crude up 10% and global benchmark Brent gaining 5% in the week, on fears the United States could attack Iran and disrupt flows from the Middle East, which provides more than a fifth of the world’s oil output. U.S. gasoline futures, meanwhile, jumped 4% following a massive fire at Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ refinery in Philadelphia, the largest on the U.S. East Coast. “The heightening of tensions between the United States and Iran has evolved as primary price motivator in spiking oil values,” Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. While the rise in U.S.-Iranian tensions has largely driven the crude price gains, analysts said an early July meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to reassess production targets, a potential softening of trade tensions between the United States and China and the refinery fire were also supporting prices. Brent futures rose 75 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $65.20 a barrel, while the most active U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract ended the session up 36 cents, or 0.6%, at $57.43. Brent notched a gain of about 5% for the week, its first weekly gain in five weeks, and WTI jumped about 10%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since December 2016. The U.S. benchmark surged 5.4% and Brent jumped 4.3% on Thursday after Iran shot down a drone that the United States claimed was in international airspace and Iran said was over its territory. U.S. President Donald Trump said he had aborted a military strike on Iran because such a response to Tehran’s downing of the unmanned U.S. surveillance drone would have caused a disproportionate loss of life. Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran had received a message from Trump through Oman overnight warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent. The officials said they had responded by saying that any attack would have regional and international consequences. They also said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was against talks but that they would convey the U.S. message to him.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint – EIA – The Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil chokepoint because of the large volumes of oil that flow through the strait. In 2018, its daily oil flow averaged 21 million barrels per day (b/d), or the equivalent of about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes that are critical to global energy security. The inability of oil to transit a major chokepoint, even temporarily, can lead to substantial supply delays and higher shipping costs, resulting in higher world energy prices. Although most chokepoints can be circumvented by using other routes that add significantly to transit time, some chokepoints have no practical alternatives. Volumes of crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products transiting the Strait of Hormuz have been fairly stable since 2016, when international sanctions on Iran were lifted and Iran’s oil production and exports returned to pre-sanctions levels. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz in 2018 made up about one-third of total global seaborne traded oil. More than one-quarter of global liquefied natural gas trade also transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2018. There are limited options to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that can ship crude oil outside the Persian Gulf and have the additional pipeline capacity to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. At the end of 2018, the total available crude oil pipeline capacity from the two countries combined was estimated at 6.5 million b/d. In that year, 2.7 million b/d of crude oil moved through the pipelines, leaving about 3.8 million b/d of unused capacity that could have bypassed the strait. Based on tanker tracking data published by ClipperData, Saudi Arabia moves the most crude oil and condensate through the Strait of Hormuz, most of which is exported to other countries (less than 0.5 million b/d transited the strait in 2018 from Saudi ports in the Persian Gulf to Saudi ports in the Red Sea). EIA estimates that 76% of the crude oil and condensate that moved through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets in 2018.

Saudi Crown Prince Blames Iran for Oil Tanker Attacks – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has blamed Iran for recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and called on the international community to take a “decisive stance” against Tehran, Anadolu Agency reports.In an interview with the Saudi-funded newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat on Sunday, bin Salman unleashed criticism against Iran and its proxies for triggering violence in the region.On Thursday, two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz while setting off from oil-rich Arab Gulf countries en route to the far east. The attacks came one month after four vessels, including two Saudi oil tankers, were sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

EU unconvinced by US claim Iran is behind tanker attack – There was strong support among EU countries for an independent UN investigation and calls for more evidence, Independent reported on Monday. Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, said the EU states “continue to gather information”. “We know the findings of the American and the British intelligence services, which assume that you can be almost certain. We are comparing this with our information. I think you have to proceed very, very carefully on this,” Maas said. Jean Asselborn, Luxembourg’s foreign minister, said: “I believe that the main task of foreign ministers is to avoid war. We have to do that today.” Pekka Haavisto, the Finnish foreign minister, said it was important that EU states have “the full evidence” before reaching any conclusion. “I support very much the line of the UN Secretary General Mr. Guterres, that a proper investigation [to put] all the facts on the table and then we can look what really has happened, who is behind this,” he said.

War On Tankers To Exact A High Price For White House & Global Economy – Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo conveyed a message from US President Donald Trump to the Iranian leadership, asking the release of 5 US prisoners and inviting Iran to sit around a negotiation table, adding “he [Donald Trump] would be ready to suspend all sanctions only during the negotiations”. No guarantee was offered to freeze or revoke the sanctions. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the message and any dialogue with the US President and told his guest that he considers Trump unworthy to “to exchange a message with“. Informed sources close to Iranian decision makers repeated the words of President Hassan Rouhani and the Iranian advisor to Sayyed Khamenei for international affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, namely that “if Iran can’t export oil through the Persian Gulf, no-one in the Middle East will be able do this.”The source “expects further attacks in the future, given the US decision to stop the flow of oil by all means at all costs. Thus, oil will stop being delivered to the world if Iran can’t export its two million barrels per day”.Two tankers – Kokuka Courageous and Font Altair – were attacked in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday, putting at risk the supply of oil to the West and making oil tanker navigation in the Middle East very unsafe. “One more attack and insurance companies are expected to increase their fees. More attacks and no insurance company will agree to cover any oil tanker navigating in Gulf waters, putting Iran and other oil-exporters at the same level. Moreover, let us see what justifications Trump and Europe will offer their people when the price of oil becomes unaffordable,” said the source.“Tensions in the Gulf can be eased only when sanctions are lifted on Iran. Otherwise, more objectives may be targeted and the level of tension will gradually increase. The US is selling weapons which are inadequate to protect oil tankers or to protect oil pipelines delivering oil to harbors. If Iran is in pain, the rest of the world will suffer equally,” said the source. Today, the Gulf of Oman has become the operational stage to attack oil tankers. The oil tankers suffered multiple attacks. Had the attackers aimed to sink the oil tankers, this would have created an ecological disaster in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Iran wants everybody to sit around the negotiation table, including the Gulf countries, but only once the sanctions are lifted.

Trump calls alleged Iranian tanker attacks ‘very minor’ -President Donald Trump downplayed the seriousness of suspected attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week, essentially dismissing the idea that the recent events would trigger a war with Iran. In an interview with Time magazine published Tuesday, Trump called the June 13 attacks, which his administration has blamed on Iran and which crippled two vessels and forced their crews to abandon ship, “very minor.” “So far, it’s been very minor,” Trump told Time Magazine. While he endorsed the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that Iran was the likely culprit in last week’s events, he seemed to suggest that energy interests in the region – including the Strait of Hormuz, near the site of the attacks and the conduit for 30% of the world’s seaborne oil exports – were not worth starting a war over. “Other places get such vast amounts of oil there,” Trump told Time, referring to major importers of Middle East crude like China and Japan. “We get very little. We have made tremendous progress in the last two and a half years in energy … So we’re not in the position that we used to be in in the Middle East where … some people would say we were there for the oil.” The president’s comments are markedly less hawkish than those coming from the Pentagon and State Department, where national security leaders have insisted that all options are on the table, including military action, in order to defend U.S. interests. Acting Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan has announced a fresh deployment of 1,000 additional troops to the region on top of the 1,500 announced last month as tensions climb between the two adversaries one year after Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Nobody Believes US Claims That Iran Attacked Those Oil Tankers – – While Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was quick to rush to the conclusion that Iran was the key actor behind alleged attacks on oil tankers in one of the world’s most strategically important oil routes – the Strait of Hormuz – the world has grown increasingly weary of the tall tales spun from Washington in its pursuit of conflict in the Middle East.Indeed, many figures across the globe have greeted the accusations with extreme skepticism, largely agreeing with Tehran’s argument that the U.S. is solely interested in promoting an “Iranophobic” campaign on a potential path to war. Even the Japanese owner of one of the attacked tankers, the Kokuka Sangyo Company, has insisted that no possibility exists that a torpedo was fired at the ship, which contained 25,000 tons of methanol headed to Japan. “The crew told us something came flying at the ship, and they found a hole. Then some crew witnessed the second shot.”The skepticism has extended to Europe. On Monday, a meeting of 28 European Union foreign ministers vocally called for an independent United Nations investigation of the attack on two Gulf tankers, with the U.K. largely isolated in its lonesome support of the Trump administration’s certainty that the attacks were carried out by Iran. Jean Asselborn, Luxembourg’s foreign minister, said: “I believe that the main task of foreign ministers is to avoid war. We have to do that today.”Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, also stressed that despite the certainty of U.S. and U.K. intelligence agencies, Germany would continue “comparing this with our information.” Maas added that“you have to proceed very, very carefully on this.”Indeed, no hard proof that Iran was behind the attacks has yet emerged, although Washington has released a video claiming to show an Iranian patrol boat removing an unexploded mine from the side of a tanker.Yet the video, if it is to be accepted as clear proof of an Iranian hand in the attacks, raises questions as to why Tehran would pull such a daring maneuver prior to trying to remove the evidence of their role in the attacks, all in broad daylight.

An Iranian boat reportedly fired a missile at a US drone right before the tanker attack – Just a few hours before Thursday’s attack on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the crew of an Iranian boat reportedly fired a missile at a US drone. The surface-to-air missile missed the MQ-9 Reaper drone, CNN reported Friday, citing a US official who revealed that before the Iranians opened fire the unmanned aerial vehicle spotted Iranian ships closing in on the two tankers.This report, which INSIDER was not able to immediately verify, adds to the body of evidence produced by the US that Iranian forces were involved in the attack on the tankers.The US pinned the blame for Thursday’s attack on Iran. “It is the assessment of the U.S. government that Iran is responsible for today’s attacks in the Gulf of Oman,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said. “These attacks are a threat to international peace and security, a blatant assault on the freedom of navigation, and an unacceptable escalation of tension by Iran.” US Central Command later released photos of a suspected unexploded limpet mine attached to the hull one of the targeted tankers. The combatant command also released a video showing the crew of an Iranian patrol boat sailing out and taking the mine. President Donald Trump doubled down Friday morning, telling Fox & Friends that the attack “has Iran written all over it.” The US also blamed an attack on four tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates last month on Iran, with an investigation into the incident concluding that it was highly likely that limpet mines were used against the four vessels. Tehran has repeatedly denied all allegations, which come amid heightened tensions with the US.

Gulf of Oman: US sends more troops amid tanker tension with Iran – The US military will send an additional 1,000 troops to the Middle East as tensions build with Iran. Acting Defence Secretary Patrick Shanahan said the deployment was in response to “hostile behaviour” by Iranian forces. The US Navy also shared new images it says link Iran to attacks last week on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Washington has accused Iran of blowing holes in the vessels with mines. Iran has denied the allegations. Tensions were further fuelled on Monday when Iran said its stockpile of low-enriched uranium would next week exceed levels set under the 2015 nuclear agreement. The 2015 deal, from which the US has withdrawn, curbed Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said his country did not seek to wage war with any nation and had remained “loyal” to its international obligations.

British Royal Marines Heading to Gulf of Oman to Protect Warships – According to reports out of the Sunday Times, Britain is set to deploy approximately 100 Royal Marines to the Gulf of Oman in the days to come, with an eye toward protecting British warships in the area.Officials cited “concern” about mounting tensions with Iran, and noted that Iran had summoned the British Ambassador to protest Britain blaming them for last week’s tanker attacks.Yet this deployment is, if officials are to be believed, unrelated to those attacks. Rather, they say the deployments had been planned for several weeks, as part of the general escalation toward Iran, and just happen to coincide with the tanker attacks. Iran has denied attacking the tankers, though both the US and Britain have declared Iran the guilty party. So far, there has been no sign of any incidents in the region threatening anyone’s warships, and with the ongoing US escalation, there are a lot more warships in the region than there normally are.

Pompeo To Present Military “Options” To Trump As Iran Threatens Carriers With “Precision” Ballistic Missiles – Echoing prior comments from Tehran’s leaders that a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf would set the stage for a “shooting gallery,” the commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Tuesday that its ballistic missiles are capable of hitting “carriers in the sea” with great precision. “These missiles can hit with great precision carriers in the sea… These missiles are domestically produced and are difficult to intercept and hit with other missiles,” Brigadier General Hossein Salami said in a televised speech, per Reuters. He also asserted that Iran’s ballistic missile technology had tipped the balance of power in the Middle East in Tehran’s favor, even with an increasing build-up of American forces in the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployed last month. As we previously analyzed, it appears Tehran is now waging its own “maximum counter-pressure” campaign against the White House, given its been largely blocked from exporting its vital two million barrels per day, and the US economic blockade sending its economy into a tailspin. Tehran could force Trump to choose among two bad options: see global oil squeezed with soaring prices due to a “tanker war” and military threats in the Strait of Hormuz, or commit US forces to yet another disastrous regime change war in the Middle East. Iran appears ready to match threat for threat, as we mentioned: a real war is fast unfolding in the Middle East today, a war where oil tankers and oil delivery to the world (30% of world oil supply goes through the Gulf) are the targets.

Jerusalem Post: U.S. Bombing Of Iran “Will Be Massive But Will Be Limited To A Specific Target” – According to the Jerusalem Post, a bombing campaign is being planned that “will be massive but will be limited to a specific target”… According to the officials, since Friday, the White House has been holding incessant discussions involving senior military commanders, Pentagon representatives and advisers to President Donald Trump.The military action under consideration would be an aerial bombardment of an Iranian facility linked to its nuclear program, the officials further claimed.“The bombing will be massive but will be limited to a specific target,” said a Western diplomat.If this happens, it will start a war.Iran is home to more than 81 million people, it is armed to the teeth, and it is the global central hub for Shia Islam.It would be the biggest war that the United States has fought since World War II, and the Iranians would fight to the death and they would throw everything that they have at us. That would include unleashing all Iranian and Hezbollah operatives in North America to conduct widespread terror operations. Blood would be spilled on a massive scale, and there would be great chaos inside our own nation.Are we sure that we really want that? Unfortunately, events are beginning to spin out of control very rapidly now. On Monday, Iran announced that it will surpass the uranium stockpile limit that was established by Obama’s nuclear deal in just 10 days…

Iran To Exceed Some Nuclear Deal Limits – The conflict U.S. President Donald Trump ignited by leaving the nuclear deal with Iran is escalating at multiple fronts. U.S. sanctions on Iranian im- and exports are devastating its economy. A new tanker war is brewing. Iran will soon exceed limits set under the nuclear agreement. While this is not a legal breach of the deal, the Trump administration will loudly denounce it as such. Iran is also pushing European countries to fulfill their commitment as signatories of the nuclear deal. It today announced what steps it might take should the EU be unwilling to do its part. The deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, acknowledged Iran’s right to enrich uranium for nuclear fuel and to produce heavy water, a moderator needed for certain types of nuclear reactors. The deal limits the amounts of these products Iran is allowed to stockpile.As Iran wanted to continue the production it was clear that the stockpiles for both products would grow above the limit. It was therefore agreed that Iran would export everything above the set limits as well as all newly produced enriched Uranium and heavy water.Part of Iran’s stockpile of heavy water, which is also used in other industrial processes, was sold to the United States. Additionally produced heavy water was regularly either sold or sent to Oman to be stockpiled there until the conversion of Iran’s nuclear reactor in Arak, which will use that heavy water, is completed.The excess enriched uranium was exported to Russia. In exchange Iran received natural Uranium for future enrichment. When the Trump administration left the nuclear agreement a year ago it renewed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program. But it also issued waivers for the export of heavy water and enriched uranium. Iran continued to sell these products or to stockpile them outside of the country. On May 3 2019 the State Department announced that it would no longer issue these waivers:

Iran threatens to increase enriched uranium stockpile beyond limits set by nuclear deal in 10 days WaPo – Iran said Monday it would boost its stockpile of enriched uranium to exceed limits set by a 2015 nuclear pact with world powers, in what appeared to be the latest salvo in an escalating standoff with the United States.A spokesman for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said Monday that Iran’s enrichment rate would bypass the nuclear deal’s 300-kilogram limit in 10 days. Speaking to reporters at Iran’s Arak heavy-water nuclear reactor, Behrouz Kamalvandi said that the organization already had accelerated production of low-enriched uranium, based on needs at two reactors in the port of Bushehr and the capital, Tehran. Britain, reacting to the announcement, said it would “look at all options” if Iran breached its obligations under the agreement. Other European leaders, meeting in Luxembourg, urged Iran to adhere to the deal.“As of today, Iran is still compliant. And we strongly hope, encourage, expect that Iran continues to comply with its commitments,” said European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, adding that the bloc and other signatories would base their response on whether Iran was violating the agreement. The pact curbed Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for major sanctions relief but has come under threat since the United States abandoned the accord and reimposed a near-total embargo on the Iranian economy in the fall. Some European diplomats saw that 10-day deadline less as a firm plan to violate enrichment limits and more as an urgent call to Europe from Iran to deliver fresh concessions. One European diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said that if Iran does violate the deal, Europe probably would trigger the pact’s mechanisms for arbitration and impose new sanctions. Such a response, however, would probably not be coordinated with the United States, the diplomat said, since most Europeans blame the Trump administration for the recent spike in tensions.

Iran shoots down US surveillance drone, heightening tensions (AP) – Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shot down a U.S. surveillance drone Thursday in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time the Islamic Republic directly attacked the American military amid tensions over Tehran’s unraveling nuclear deal with world powers. The two countries disputed the circumstances leading up to an Iranian surface-to-air missile bringing down the U.S. Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk, an unmanned aircraft with a wingspan larger than a Boeing 737 jetliner and costing over $100 million. Iran said the drone “violated” its territorial airspace, while the U.S. called the missile fire “an unprovoked attack” in international airspace over the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf and President Donald Trump tweeted that “Iran made a very big mistake!”

US military drone shot down by missile in international airspace, US official says – – An Iranian surface-to-air missile shot down a U.S. military surveillance drone Thursday in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz in an “unprovoked attack,” U.S. officials said, disputing Iranian reports that the aircraft was over its territory. The downing came amid rising tensions between Washington and Tehran since the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement last year. The U.S. has accused Iran of recent attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf region, allegations the Iranians deny. “U.S. Central Command can confirm that a U.S. Navy Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (or BAMS-D) ISR aircraft was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile system while operating in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz at approximately 11:35 p.m. GMT on June 19, 2019,” Navy Capt. Bill Urban, U.S. Central Command spokesman, said in a statement. Brent crude jumped on the news in early morning trading, up 2.86%, or $1.77, at $63.59 a barrel at 7:50 a.m. ET. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was up 3.55%. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical conduit for 30% of the world’s seaborne oil. The downing was first announced by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards on its website, Sepah News. The Iranian outlet claimed the Revolutionary Guards had shot down a U.S. “spy drone” over the southern province of Hormozgan. “The downing of the American drone was a clear message to America. … Our borders are Iran’s red line and we will react strongly against any aggression,” Major Gen. Hossein Salami, the recently appointed chief of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, told Iranian state TV. “Iran is not seeking war with any country, but we are fully prepared to defend Iran.”

FAA prohibits operators from flying over some Iran-controlled airspace (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday issued an emergency order prohibiting U.S. operators from flying in an overwater area of Tehran-controlled airspace over the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman due to heightened tensions.In a separate advisory to operators, FAA said according to flight tracking applications, the nearest civil aircraft was operating within around 45 nautical miles of a U.S. Global Hawk drone when it was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile this week.“There were numerous civil aviation aircraft operating in the area at the time of the intercept,” FAA said.The agency said it remained concerned about the escalation of tension and military activity within close proximity to high volume civil aircraft routes as well as Iran’s willingness to use long-range missiles in international airspace with little or no warning.

India Deploys Multiple Warships To Gulf For Maritime Security Amid Tensions The international military build-up in the Gulf begins, apparently, at a moment the White House is mulling various military “options” in response to the Thursday morning shoot-down of a high altitude US military drone over the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has acknowledged responsibility for. After earlier this week Britain announced it would be deploying UK special forces to the Gulf to protect UK assets in the region due to last week’s tanker attack incident, also blamed on Iran, India is now initiating a major naval deployment there. The Indian Navy announced via official statements that it is executing “Operation Sankalp” in order to “re-assure Indian Flagged Vessels operating/ transiting through Persian Gulf & Gulf of Oman following the maritime security incidents in the region,” according the Indian Navy spokesperson. The multiple vessel deployment, including the military ships Chennai and INS Sunayna sent to the Gulf of Oman, is to provide “security” for Indian-flagged ships traversing the area following recent mine attacks on merchant ships and amid a tense US-Iran military standoff.

Putin Warns Attack On Iran Would Be Catastrophic As US Navy Deploys To Drone Crash Site -Following China’s warning this week that the United States is poised to open “Pandora’s Box” in the Middle East should it escalate military action against Iran, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has weighed in, on Thursday saying any American military strike would have “catastrophic” consequences. Putin warned further that US attack “would trigger a surge in violence and a possible refugee exodus,” according to Reuters. During an annual televised question and answer session hosted by the Russian leader, he reiterated Moscow’s position that Tehran is in full compliance with its nuclear commitments under the 2015 JCPOA. He also slammed the US-imposed sanctions now choking the Iranian economy as “groundless”.“I want to say at once that this would be a catastrophe for the region” – Putin said. Meanwhile, President Trump has been briefed on Thursday morning’s dramatic escalation of an already tense stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz which involved Iran’s alleged shoot down of a US drone near entrance to Persian Gulf.Reports say it was US Navy high-altitude drone taken out by an Iranian surface-to-air missile directly over Strait of Hormuz in what the US says was international airspace, but which Iran claimed was over its sovereign airspace. US Central Command (CENTCOM) identified the drone as one of its RQ-4 Global Hawk aircraft, condemning it as an “unprovoked attack”.“Iranian reports that the aircraft was over Iran are false. This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international airspace,” CENTCOM spokesman Navy Capt. Bill Urban said following the confirmed drone downing. And now, in a pattern suggesting significant US military build-up will continue in the Persian Gulf following last week’s tanker attack incident, also blamed on Iran, US naval assets have been dispatched to the “drone debris field in international waters” according to a breaking Reuters report. Meanwhile, war drums beating, here we go…

Trump says Iran may have shot down U.S. drone by mistake – (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump played down Iran’s downing of a U.S. military drone on Thursday, saying he suspected it was shot by mistake and that “it would have made a big difference” to him if the remotely-controlled aircraft had been piloted. While the comments appeared to suggest Trump was not eager to escalate the latest in a series of incidents with Iran, he also warned that: “This country will not stand for it.” Tehran said the unarmed Global Hawk surveillance drone was on a spy mission over its territory but Washington said it was shot down over international airspace. “I think probably Iran made a mistake – I would imagine it was a general or somebody that made a mistake in shooting that drone down,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

U.S. blames Iran for helping Houthi rebels shoot down drone in Yemen – (Reuters) – Houthi rebels in Yemen recently shot down a U.S. government-operated drone with assistance from Iran, the U.S. military said in a statement on Sunday. Lt. Col. Earl Brown, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, said the altitude at which the MQ-9 drone was shot down on June 6 marked “an improvement over previous Houthi capability,” a fact that led the military to conclude the rebel group had help from Iran. Brown also noted that on June 13, Iran separately tried to shoot down yet another U.S. drone over the Gulf of Oman in an effort to disrupt surveillance of Iran’s attack on Kokuka Courageous, one of two oil tankers attacked on Thursday. U.S. officials have blamed Tehran for those attacks, raising fears about a potential confrontation between the United States and Iran..

Russia Will Help Iran With Oil, Banking If Europe’s SPV Payment Channel Not Launched – With Iran increasingly isolated by the West, even by Europe which last year so vocally opposed the US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal and vowed to create a mechanism that circumvents SWIFT, only to reduce its opposition to zero after Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Europe if it proceeds with its experiment to bypass the dollar, Russia on Friday announced it was ready to help Iran export its crude and ease restrictions on its banking system if Europe fails to launch its dollar-evading SPV, Instex (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) with Tehran, according to Interfax and PressTV.The three European signatories to the 2015 nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), unveiled late in January the direct non-dollar payment mechanism meant to safeguard their trade ties with Tehran following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and in the face of the “toughest ever” sanctions imposed by the United States against the Islamic Republic. In its initial stage, INSTEX would facilitate trade of humanitarian goods such as medicine, food and medical devices, but it will later be expanded to cover other areas of trade, including Iran’s oil sales.However, it has not resulted in any trade deals so far. In late May, the US threatened Europe with “loss of access to the US financial system” if it rolled out the SWIFT-evading SPV, which appears to have crushed Europe’s enthusiasm to pursue alternative financial transactions with Tehran, forcing it to conceded to Washington (again). Earlier this month, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abbas Moussavi said European governments have failed to meet their expectations in implementing INSTEX to protect the JCPOA, criticizing their “lack of will” to deal with America’s pressure against Tehran.”What the Europeans need to do and what they have done so far have failed to win our satisfaction,” the Iranian spokesperson said.His remarks came after Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in April once again complained about a d elay by European partners in the nuclear deal to make operational the payment channel with Tehran, saying they now have “no excuse” for further postponement of the project.

UN Finds “Credible Evidence” MbS Ordered Khashoggi Murder; Shocking Audio Detailed – A United Nations expert and special rapporteur has submitted a 101-page report calling on UN secretary-general António Guterres to initiate a “follow-up criminal investigation” after finding “sufficient credible evidence” that the grisly Oct. 2 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul was on the direct orders of crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) and other high level officials. Agnes Callamard, the UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial executions, described in her report that Khashoggi was the“victim of a deliberate, premeditated execution, an extrajudicial killing for which the state of Saudi Arabia is responsible under international human rights law.” The report, the culmination of a six month investigation, said further: “Indeed, this human rights inquiry has shown that there is sufficient credible evidence regarding the responsibility of the crown prince demanding further investigation,” according to FT. Callamard was granted rare access to a number of the recordings of conversations inside the consulate – during and surrounding the murder – which involved Khashoggi’s body likely being hacked up, according to prior reports.“The Turkish authorities undoubtedly have more information and intelligence about events in the Saudi Consulate than they were willing or able to share with the inquiry,” the report said.However, the new UN report contains more shocking details from the recordings concerning the gruesome manner of Kashoggi’s death. According to a CNN summary of this section of the report: According to the report – which cites evidence from Turkish and other intelligence agencies – after entering the consulate, Khashoggi was injected with a sedative and then his head put inside a plastic bag and suffocated.

Saudi Arabia Buys $300 Million Spyware From Israel – Saudi Arabia has bought $300 million worth of spy software from Israel as part of a large scale military deal.Senior Arab sources told Al Khaleej Online that the deal was struck without a mediator, despite the fact that the two countries do not maintain formal diplomatic relations. The sources stressed that the Saudi intelligence services have sought to obtain advanced spyware in order to trace the Kingdom’s citizens – both in the country and abroad – amidst increasing criticism of the Saudi royal family.Saudi Arabia therefore reached out to the Israeli market and struck a deal worth $300 million with representatives of Israeli firms, the sources said, adding that both sides met and reached the deal in UK capital London. According to the sources, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) know about the deal, which includes 1,000 small yet sophisticated tracking devices that can be placed in the target’s mobile phone.

Russia Slams CBS News for Cooperating With Syrian Al-Qaeda – The Russian embassy in Syria has slammed CBS News for sending its reporters into Idlib province, which is controlled by the al-Qaeda group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), at a moment of a stepped up joint Russian-Syrian aerial assault campaign over the northwestern territory. Over the weekend the embassy tweeted of the CBS team’s reporting from Idlib: CBS News crew + a “white helmet” (not wearing one, apparently) = another act of media warfare in the making. Both Moscow and Damascus have long accused US and western media correspondents of essentially giving terror groups operating inside Syria a major platform to air their propaganda, including claims of chemical weapons attacks. Russia as well as some western commentators have also described the White Helmets as essentially “the rescue wing of al-Qaeda.” As some Middle East analysts were quick to point out, the CBS crew would have had to receive permission from HTS/al-Qaeda to be in Idlib in the first place. The Russian embassy accusation that CBS is engaged in “an act of media warfare” seems geared toward that fact. A number of American journalists, including the Washington Post’s Liz Sly were outraged, noting that the CBS crew was “on the ground” to report “on the Russian-Syrian offensive there.” However, it remains that HTS and thus Idlib province itself, is under the military control of none other Syrian al-Qaeda leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani.

Narrative Management = Reality Management – — Caitlin Johnstone – The Grayzone’s Max Blumenthal has published the first part of an investigative series on how so-called non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are being used to manipulate the narrative about what’s going on in Syria by posing as impartial investigative bodies and circulating pro-imperialist disinformation to the western political/media class as objective fact. Part one is titled “Behind the Syrian Network for Human Rights: How an opposition front group became Western media’s go-to monitor“, and it documents a mountain of evidence that one of these “NGOs” is in fact very much state-funded and highly biased in favor of anti-Assad forces, yet still gets cited as an independent source by western mass media outlets in a way that just so happens to help make the case for western interventionism in Syria. “Citing the Syrian Network for Human Rights as an independent and credible source is the journalistic equivalent of sourcing statistics on head trauma to a research front created by the National Football League, or turning to tobacco industry lobbyists for information on the connection between smoking and lung cancer. And yet this has been standard practice among correspondents covering the Syrian conflict,” Blumenthal writes. “Indeed, Western press has engaged for years in an insidious sleight of hand, basing reams of shock journalism around claims by a single, highly suspect source that is deeply embedded within the Syrian opposition – and hoped that no one would notice.” I’ve taken to calling such things “narrative management operations” lately, because that’s a much clearer illustration of their function than simply labeling them propaganda constructs and psyops (though those labels are certainly accurate as well). Countless operations have been set up both inside and outside of Syria to control the narrative about what’s happening there, and now if a casual observer decides to find out more about the Syrian conflict they’ll almost certainly be consuming information that has been filtered through narrative management ops that have been funded by governments within the US-centralized power alliance. It’s like trying to figure out what’s going on at the other end of a large room that’s been filled with smoke and mirrors. But narrative management is in no way limited to Syria. You see all sorts of organizations used to manipulate public narratives all the time, like the cybersecurity company Crowdstrike for example, whose highly suspicious analysis of the DNC’s servers formed the foundation of the official Russian hacking narrative, and whose CEO is now a billionaire. Whether it’s longstanding foreign policy agendas like shoving Russia off the world stage, or longstanding domestic agendas like preserving the dominance of the plutocratic class and expanding surveillance and police militarization, our understanding of what’s going on in the world is constantly being messed with.

Erdogan sees Russian S-400s delivery starting in July: NTV – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he expected Russian S-400 missile defence systems to start arriving in Turkey in the first half of July, broadcaster NTV reported on Sunday – a development set to fuel tensions with NATO ally Washington. The S-400s are not compatible with NATO’s systems and have been a growing source of discord between Turkey and the United States in recent months. “We discussed the S-400 subject with Russia. Indeed the S-400 issue is settled,” Erdogan was cited as telling reporters on his plane returning from a visit to Tajikistan, where he attended a summit and met Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I think they will start to come in the first half of July,” he added, giving a more specific forecast than he has in the past. US acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan this month outlined how Turkey would be pulled out of the F-35 fighter jet programme unless Ankara changed course on its plans to buy the missile systems. Erdogan said he would discuss the issue with US President Donald Trump when they meet at this month’s G-20 summit. “When someone lower down says different things, then we immediately make contact with Mr Trump and try to solve issues with telephone diplomacy. Matters don’t take long there,” he said.

Israel announces new Golan Heights settlement named ‘Trump Heights’ – CNN – Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced a new settlement in theGolan Heights named after his “great friend” Donald Trump.Netanyahu unveiled a sign at the proposed site of the settlement on Sunday bearing the name “Trump Heights,” and thanked the US President for breaking with the international community torecognize Israeli sovereignty over the region.”We are proud that we have the opportunity to establish a new settlement and to give thanks to a great friend,” Netanyahu told a celebratory cabinet meeting at the site. “We will continue to grow and develop the Golan for all of our citizens — Jews and non-Jews together.”The Golan Heights, which was seized by Israel from Syria during the Six-Day War in 1967 and annexed in 1981, is regarded as illegally occupied territory by the global community. The UN Security Council has deemed Israel’s administration of the area “null and void and without legal effect,” and the UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, recently reiterated that position.But Trump recognized Israeli sovereignty in the region in March, two weeks before that country’s elections, in what was seen as a major political gift to Netanyahu. The US is the only country in the world to recognize Israeli sovereignty in the occupied territory.

Israel wounds 92 Palestinian civilians at weekly protest, including 28 children, 4 paramedics – – On Friday, 14 June 2019, in excessive use of force against peaceful protesters on the 61st Friday of the Great March of Return and Breaking the Siege, Israeli forces wounded 92 Palestinian civilians; 28 of them were children and four were paramedics, including a female paramedic, in the eastern Gaza Strip. One of the wounded was a child, who was hit with a live bullet to the chest and sustained a serious wound. According to observations by PCHR’s fieldworkers, the Israeli forces who were stationed in prone positions and in military jeeps along the fence with Israel continued to use excessive force against the protesters by firing bullets and tear gas canisters at them. As a result, dozens of the protesters were hit with bullets and teargas canisters without posing any imminent threat or danger to the life of soldiers. During this week, Israeli forces have escalated their attacks against the medical personnel in the field, wounding 4 members of them with rubber bullets and direct tear gas canisters in eastern Rafah. This indicates that there is an Israeli systematic policy to target the medical personnel and obstruct their humanitarian work that is guaranteed under the rules of the international humanitarian law. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PRCS) has confirmed that a medic, identified as Mohammad Sobhi al-Jodeili, 36, died from serious wounds he suffered, on May 3, 2019, when Israeli soldiers shot him with a rubber-coated steel bullet in the face in the Gaza Strip. The PRCS stated that the medic, from the al-Boreij refugee camp in central Gaza, suffered fractures in his nose, face and skull. The soldiers shot him in Abu Safiyya area, in Jabalia, in the northern part of the coastal region, while he was providing medical care to wounded Palestinians during the Great Return March processions. He received treatment at one of the makeshift hospitals before he was moved to a medical center in Gaza, and later was moved to the al-Ahli hospital in Hebron, in the southern part of the West Bank, due to the seriousness of his wounds.

The Two-State Solution Is Dead. Bloodbath Next? – The part of the Middle East formerly known as Palestine is lost as a two-state region. The Israelis are “systematically” driving toward a single regional state: the State of Israel. Below is a map showing Israel proper, the West Bank region, Palestinian population centers and the growing incursion of Israeli settlements which are “eating” the West Bank. “A State Department map shows Palestinian population centers in the West Bank. Obama was surprised to see how ‘systematic’ the Israelis had been at cutting them off from one another.” (source, click to enlarge) The outcome of this long process of territorial integration, barring any implementation of an alternative to the “two-state solution,” will be as Mike Gravel says, “horrendous war, the Jordan foaming with blood.” The monomaniacal drive by Israel’s leaders to recover the western part of their Iron Age kingdom has now made peace impossible, sansintervention. If the two-state idea is dead, what alternatives are left? Just one. Below I list the main points of presidential candidate Mike Gravel’s proposal, offered as the only non-military, non-ethnic-cleansing way forward. Is this solution “practical”? No, it’s not, in the sense that the current leaders of the U.S., Israel and Palestine will not accept it. But yes, it is practical, in the sense that a bloodbath in the region – and it will come to that – a bloodbath that will wash over all of the Middle East, is the only other alternative. If a war of this magnitude is itself “impractical” in the extreme, Gravel’s solution is imminently practical. I, like Gravel, see this as the only way out. Here are Gravel’s main points, as offered in a recent Mondoweiss piece:

• Move toward creating a secular, democratic binational state – “Most American diplomats will, in their more candid hours, admit that the two-state idea is long dead. Prudence dictates that America acknowledge that on the world stage and begin the search for other solutions. The most obvious and humane path forward is the creation of a secular, democratic, binational state with equal rights for all. That is the model the U.S. government, with its partners in the region, should work toward and publicly highlight as the ideal outcome.”
• Force AIPAC and similar pro-Israel groups to register as foreign lobbies – “The first step should be mandating that AIPAC register as a foreign lobby under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). AIPAC manages to skirt American laws about foreign lobbying by claiming that it represents Americans who happen to support Israel. But the shockingly close ties between the governing Likud Party and AIPAC give a lie to this legal fiction; AIPAC will always stand closer to Israeli interests than American ones. Such an arrangement would prevent AIPAC from influencing American elections, and would require it to report all of its contacts with Congress, along with details of its spending, to the Department of Justice.”
• End military support for Israel – “Next, the U.S. should end military aid to Israel, citing the Israeli military’s complicity in crimes against the Palestinian people. It should call for a gradual demilitarization of Israel and Palestine, and should be clear with the Israeli government that the days of Israel-right-or-wrong are over. Future outrages by either side will receive an even-handed response without bias. Accordingly, it should demand that Israel bring itself into compliance with international law and end the harassment of dissidents…”
• Finally, end U.S. attempts to stifle BDS, the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement – “the U.S. should refuse to take unconstitutional steps to stifle BDS. Whatever one’s personal thoughts on BDS, an individual or group’s decision not to associate with another group or country is a legitimate exercise of the freedoms of speech and association guaranteed by the Constitution, and using the power of the government to influence those decisions is wrong.Senators Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker should be ashamed of themselves for supporting federal laws to restrict BDS. (It is perhaps no coincidence that Booker and the president of AIPAC ‘text message back and forth like teenagers,’ by Booker’s own admission.)”

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