Oil, Gas, And Fracking News Reads 24February, 2019 – Part 2

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 24 February 2019. Go here for Part 1.

This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.

Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.

U.S. and Germany Defuse an Energy Dispute, Easing Tensions – Relations between the United States and Germany have mostly gone downhill since President Trump took office. But on Tuesday they took an unexpected turn for the better. Officials in Berlin agreed to help finance a port to import liquefied natural gas from America, a key United States demand. In return, the United States government is toning down its opposition to an underwater pipeline being built to Germany from Russia. The unofficial agreement, announced in Berlin by high-ranking American and German officials, was a rare case of rapprochement in a relationship that has been severely strained by American tariffs on European steel, continued threats to impose levies on German cars and personal enmity between Mr. Trump and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.Germany’s gas supply had become a major point of contention. Last year, officials in Brussels promised to buy more American natural gas as a way of answering complaints by the Trump administration that trans-Atlantic trade favors Europe. At the same time, though, Germany continued to support construction of a pipeline under the Baltic Sea that would deliver gas from Russia. The project annoyed the United States as well as European countries like Poland, Slovakia and the Baltic states.Both the United States and Germany made concessions Tuesday, an unusual occurrence in the recent history of trans-Atlantic relations. Peter Altmaier, the German minister for the economy and energy, said the government would support construction of at least one terminal, probably in the vicinity of Hamburg, for offloading liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., from special tankers. While the gas could come from anywhere, the project is seen as a way to open Germany to gas producers in Texas and other states.

Merkel Defends Deal For Putin’s Gas; Fumes Over Taunts By Trump Admin – Donald Trump is really starting to ruffle Angela Merkel’s feathers, as the German chancellor continues to fend off attacks by the Trump administration over the $10.8 billion (9.5 billion-euro) 758-mile (1,220 km) ‘Nord Stream 2’ undersea gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, according to Bloomberg. U.S. diplomats leaned on officials in Paris and Brussels to join their opposition to the Nord Stream 2 project over the past 10 days as Merkel thrashed out an agreement over the plan with France, the people said. –BloombergIn January, the US ambassador to Berlin, Richard Grenell, sent letters to German companies working on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline warning them of “significant risk of sanctions” if they don’t abandon the project. The letter suggested that the pipeline would make Europe dependent on Moscow, increasing the threat of Russian interventions. The Nord Stream 2 project is headed up by former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who is also a consultant to bank R othschild. On Saturday, Vice President Mike Pence urged EU nations to reject the undersea pipeline during a speech in front of Merkel and other world leaders at the Munich Security Conference. The German chancellor had harsh words for the Trump administration – delivering an impassioned speech to Security Conference attendees defending the multilateral order “challenged by Trump,” according to Bloomberg, earning a standing ovation from the audienced filled with presidents, prime ministers and senior defense officials. “Merkel was on fire,” said former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt via Twitter.

Natural Gas Guru Who Corrected the CIA Says Russia and U.S. Pick the Wrong Fight – The scientist who built the most prominent Cold War energy advisory said the U.S. and Russia should set aside their fight over natural gas markets and focus on slashing fossil fuel pollution more quickly. Nebojsa Nakicenovic helped set the stage for the global gas boom five decades ago as part of an elite scientific team that fixed Central Intelligence Agency estimates “that were all wrong.” He combined the CIA’s views with secret Soviet data to provide the first full picture of the Earth’s plentiful methane reserves. But the window to tap those deposits is already almost closed, he said. “It was 50 years of retrograde,” Nakicenovic said in an interview. “Rather than achieving the transformation, we were working on the counter transformation in many ways. Now we have no time to waste. We need to be at zero emissions by mid century.” The remarks are meant to refocus debate about how to shape Europe’s energy networks, an issue on the agenda when Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz meets President Donald Trump in Washington on Wednesday. The scientist, who was hired by a joint White House and Kremlin initiative to advise on the issue, brings a historical perspective to the discussion about whether Europe should draw its energy through pipelines from Russia or in tankers of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. Trump and Kurz will wade into the thorny debate over how the European Union gets its gas, and the issue is expected to come up during a bilateral meeting. Austria’s state-owned energy company has preferred financing pipelines that tie European industry together with Russian reserves. Trump wants allies to buy more U.S. liquefied natural gas and shun trade that could strengthen Russia’s military hand, especially the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Europe Scrambles For Sour Crude Oil Amid Tight Market – OPEC’s production cuts and the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran have been limiting the availability of heavy and sour crude grades to Europe, where prices for heavier grades have recently shot up amid an increasingly tightening market, crude traders tell S&P Global Platts.The U.S. sanctions on Iran had already limited some of the heavy grade supply into Europe. Then with the new round of OPEC/non-OPEC cuts that began in January, Iraq’s Basra Light and Heavy – typically very popular among European refiners – have also been in short supply on the spot market in Europe as Iraq is diverting more barrels of Basra to the premium market for Middle Eastern producers: Asia. “There are no destination-free Basrah cargoes at the moment coming to Europe for the end of February as they’re targeting Asia,” a crude trader told Platts.To top off the sanctions on Iran and the OPEC cuts, the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela at the end of January further tightened the heavy crude market in Europe, and traders expect the market to tighten even more in the coming months.The sanctions on Venezuela and on Iran, as well as OPEC’s cuts, have led to a huge imbalance between light sweet grades and heavy sour grades, especially in Europe, as Middle Eastern and other oil producers are targeting to keep their sales on the Asian market.Due to tighter supply of medium and heavy sour crude oil, Middle Eastern benchmarks for sour crude grades traded higher than Brent Crude prices at the beginning of February in a rarely seen development in global oil prices. In Europe, some sour crude grades, such as Russia’s Urals, have started to trade at premiums to sweeter crudes because of the limited sour and heavy crude availability, according to S&P Global Platts data.

Venezuela gets fuel from Russia, Europe but the bill soars Reuters) – Venezuela is paying heavy premiums for fuel imports from Russia and Europe, with fewer than a dozen sellers seeing the risk as worth the reward after flows from the United States dried up because of sanctions, trading sources said and data showed. The South American nation exports crude but its refineries are in poor condition – hence the need to import gasoline and diesel for petrol stations and power plants, as well as naphtha to dilute its heavy oil. Since the United States imposed fresh sanctions on Venezuela on Jan. 28, products supplies have mainly come from Russian state oil major Rosneft, Spain’s Repsol, India’s Reliance Industries and trading houses Vitol and Trafigura, according to sources and vessel-tracking data. Russia has been a traditional political backer of Caracas, while India and Spain also have long-standing trade ties. But supplies even from those allies are coming at a cost. “The prices they are charging us are horrifying,” said an executive at Venezuelan state-run oil firm PDVSA who is familiar with recent purchases. The executive said the heavy premiums were partially due to the fact that single cargoes passed through several hands before reaching Venezuelan ports and also involved complex and expensive ship-to-ship transfers. A trader involved in one fixture said shipowners were now charging a fee of up to 50 cents per barrel to Venezuela versus 15-20 cents before sanctions. Last year, Venezuela imported most products from the United States with the main providers being PDVSA’s own U.S. subsidiary Citgo Petroleum and a U.S. unit of India’s Reliance. Monthly supplies fluctuated but in December alone PDVSA imported almost 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of fuel as its domestic refineries worked at just below a third of its 1.3-million-bpd capacity, according to PDVSA data. Imports have fallen to some 140,000 bpd of gasoline, diesel, naphtha and other fuels since the end of January, Refinitiv Eikon data shows. In addition, at least 13 cargoes carrying 5 million barrels of various fuels are heading to PDVSA’s terminals or waiting in Venezuelan waters to discharge, according to shipping sources and Eikon data.

Fracking in Colombia given go-ahead despite risks and broken election promises –An expert commission has given the go-ahead for fracking pilot projects in Colombia, despite President Ivan Duque’s promise not to use the controversial method and questions about the legitimacy of the panel’s methods.Only three members of the 13-person commission were truly independent, with numerous fuel industry professionals, according to the Alliance for a Fracking-Free Colombia (AFFC).There was only one woman on the panel, which had only three months to write the report. Public consultation was also serious lacking – the panel held just three meetings with regional communities.There is no social mandate to start fracking in Colombia.Fracking is an industrial process which breaks apart rock formations deep underground to extract fossil fuels. . The process has regularly contaminated water supplies, and has been linked to increased seismic activity.“There are ecological risks as well as public health risks,” Tatiana Roa of AFFC told Colombia Reports. More than 90% of Colombians are against fracking in Colombia, according to a poll taken this Monday. The ecological stakes are high – Colombia has the second highest biodiversity of any nation on the planet, and has 10% of the Amazon rainforest within its borders. There is, however, big money to be made by fracking in Colombia: oil reserves currently reach 2 billion barrels, equivalent to about 5 years of supplies. According to President of EcoPetrol Felipe Bayon, fracking would increase reserves by between 2 billion and 7 billion barrels.

Shell, PetroChina spat holds up biggest Australian coal seam gas project (Reuters) – Royal Dutch Shell and PetroChina are at loggerheads over gas sales pricing at their Arrow Energy joint venture, holding up development of Australia’s biggest coal seam gas resource, three industry sources said. PetroChina, the listed arm of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), is eager to start developing Arrow’s 5 trillion cubic feet (140 billion cubic meters) of gas in the Surat Basin in Queensland to turn around loss-making Arrow Energy, one of its key overseas assets. It is at the mercy of venture partner Shell, however, as the Anglo-Dutch oil company is also majority owner of Arrow’s biggest potential customer, Queensland Curtis LNG (QCLNG), a liquefied natural gas plant on an island off Queensland state. “PetroChina, as a 50-percent stakeholder in Arrow, expects to maximize interests from the JV versus QCLNG. But for Shell, it may be thinking of using its operator role at QCLNG to protect its interests,” said a Chinese oil industry executive, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issues. PetroChina’s investment is “already bleeding and the firm wants to cut losses, hoping not to make further bad investment decisions,” the executive said. Shell and PetroChina acquired the Surat gas resource in a A$3.5 billion ($2.5 billion) takeover of Arrow in 2010. They had expected to reach a final investment decision on the Surat project in 2018, with first production around 2020, after the Arrow venture signed a 27-year deal at end-2017 to supply gas from Surat to QCLNG.

Equinors plan for oil drilling in Great Australian Bight could impact Tasmania – Planned oil drilling in waters off Tasmania is feared to create havoc for the state’s $150 million scallop industry and could result in an oil slick that would “envelop” King Island. International energy company Equinor this week released its draft environment plan for an exploration drilling program in the Great Australian Bight which it said concluded drilling could be done safely. The company’s Australian representative Jone Stangeland said it would accept public comments before it submitted a final plan to the environmental regulator. He said the paper identified all relevant risks even if they were considered unlikely. “By identifying every possible risk, we can better prepare for safe operations,” Mr Stangeland said. Australia Institute state director Leanne Minshull said modelling in the plan did not provide comfort to residents, fishermen and other industries on King Island. “It shows that a major spill could envelop King Island, devastating local jobs and the ecology of surrounding areas,” she said. “Despite the oil well and the supposed profits being in South Australia, the potential damage to Tasmania is significant.” The modelling said there was a 2-per-cent chance of a high-risk oil spill. The probability of shoreline contact was predicted to be 68 per cent and the minimum days over which that would occur was estimated to be 54 days over a maximum length of 617 kilometres, under that high-risk scenario. The modelling showed 18 per cent of Tasmanian coastal waters were predicted to experience sea surface oil exposure at the moderate threshold in the unmitigated case of an oil spill which was predicted to last 44 days. This modelling was derived from 100 oil spill simulations.

Oil Spill From Shipwreck Threatens Solomon Islands’ World Heritage Site — A ship that ran aground in the Solomon islands Feb. 4 is now menacing a coral reef with an oil spill, The Guardian reported Tuesday. The 740 foot MV Solomon Trader was stranded on a reef near Rennell Island, home to the largest raised coral atoll in the world and a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage site, AFP reported. The bulk carrier has not been salvaged in the two weeks since it was stranded because of Cyclone Oma, Solomon Islands National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) director Loti Yates told Radio New Zealand early Monday morning.”The boat is still on the reef and that water is coming into the engine room, which means that the hull of the ship has been breached,” he said.Yates told Radio New Zealand there was “no sign of oil spillage,” but The Guardian report, published in the evening New Zealand time, contradicted Yates’ assurances: “Situational reports seen by the Guardian say ‘heavy fuel oil/black oil could be smelt from 800 metres’ from the vessel. ‘Discoloured brown water was observed in the lagoon approximately 600 metres south east.’The report said the vessel could not proceed anywhere under its own power and would have to be towed. ‘Indications are that the oil leak gets worse at low tide. At low tide the oil is going directly onto the exposed reef.'” The Guardian further reported that the prime minister of the Solomon Islands had already asked for help from Australia to clean the spill.

Indian Oil signs first annual deal for U.S. oil (Reuters) – Indian Oil Corp, the country’s top refiner, has signed its first annual deal to buy U.S. oil, paying about $1.5 billion for 60,000 barrels a day in the year to March 2020 to diversify its crude sources, its chairman said on Monday. IOC is the first Indian state refiner to buy U.S. oil under an annual contract, in a deal that will also help boost trade between New Delhi and Washington. The company has previously purchased U.S. oil from spot markets and signed a mini-term deal in August to buy 6 million barrels of U.S. oil between November and January. IOC chairman Sanjiv Singh said the annual contract will begin from April. He declined to give the name of the seller or pricing details, citing confidentiality. A trade source, who is not authorized to speak to media, said IOC signed the deal with Norwegian oil company Equinor which will supply a variety of U.S. crude grades. Equinor, which has set up an office in New Delhi to support oil marketing and trading, declined to comment. Indian Oil buys about 75 percent of its oil needs through long-term deals, mostly with OPEC nations. The term deal will help cut IOC’s dependence on OPEC crude, said Sri Paravaikkarasu, head of east of Suez oil for consultants FGE in Singapore. “Lots of geopolitical issues are going around. We expect lots of volume going away from Venezuela, west Africa and Iran, so it makes sense to have guaranteed term supplies from the U.S., where crude production is increasing,” she said. “There is a push for diversification everywhere. South Korea is giving a freight rebate for non-Middle East crude imports,” she added. India and the United States, which have developed close political and security ties, are also looking to develop bilateral trade, which stood at $126 billion in 2017 but is widely seen to be performing well below its potential. The two countries have set up seven groups of chief executives with top U.S. and Indian firms to boost bilateral trade in areas including energy.

India advises refiner to avoid U.S. system for Venezuela oil buying – source (Reuters) – India has asked one buyer of Venezuelan oil to consider paying the South American nation’s national oil company PDVSA in a way that avoids the U.S. financial system, an Indian government source said, after Washington imposed fresh sanctions on Venezuela last month. The United States is seeking to cut off Venezuela’s oil revenue and pressure the nation’s President Nicolas Maduro to step down after it recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as head of state. The sanctions mean that if oil buyers pay PDVSA through the U.S. banking system, the funds could be seized by U.S. authorities. There may also be problems for transactions by banks that have a heavy U.S. presence even if they aren’t in U.S. dollars and don’t go through the United States. The Indian buyer “expressed concern that there could be a problem in payments to PDVSA, so we have advised them to move away from the U.S. banking and institutional mechanism”, said the source, who did not wish to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. He declined to name the buyer. Most Western countries have recognized Guaido as Venezuela’s interim head of state, but Maduro retains the backing of Russia and China as well as control of state institutions including the military. The sanctions limit U.S. refiners to paying for Venezuelan oil by using escrow accounts that cannot be accessed by Maduro’s government. India still recognizes Maduro as Venezuela’s leader, which means “it does not make sense to shift to the other (escrow) payment avenue”, the source said. India’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday said the country was monitoring the evolving situation in Venezuela.

$44B India Refinery Project At Risk – India’s poll politics and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambition to win a second straight term has claimed an unlikely victim. A proposed $44 billion oil refinery on the western coast to be built with investments from Saudi Arabia. On Monday, the provincial government in Maharashtra state decided to relocate the project, a day ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to India. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, which leads the government in the nation’s richest state, has been facing stiff opposition from ally Shiv Sena over the site of the refinery. “There is a lot of political risk associated,” The refinery’s completion “also depends on what is going to be the outcome of the next general election, who wins or if it is going to be a single party or a coalition government.” While the project is crucial for meeting India’s expanding appetite for fuels, shoring up popular support of the farmers who account for over 60 percent of the population is key for Modi’s re-election bid in polls due by May. Its ally Shiv Sena holds considerable influence in a state that elects the second-largest number of lawmakers and the ruling party hopes the deal will help contain discontentment over job creation and a slowdown in economic sentiment. Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis announced relocating the project from the proposed location in Ratnagiri district just after sealing the alliance with the regional party that had joined the farmers in opposing the oil refinery in the area. The project will now be built at a different location, Fadnavis said, without specifying the new area. The mega plant, announced in 2016, hasn’t made much physical progress as locals refused to hand over land fearing damage to farming in the region famous for its Alphonso mangoes and cashew plantations. It is also classified as an ecologically-sensitive area.

Russia’s Lukoil Halts Oil Swaps In Venezuela After U.S. Sanctions – Litasco, the international trading arm of Russia’s second-biggest oil producer Lukoil, stopped its oil swaps deals with Venezuela immediately after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and state oil firm PDVSA, Lukoil’s chief executive Vagit Alekperov said at an investment forum in Russia.Russia, which stands by Nicolas Maduro in the ongoing Venezuelan political crisis, has vowed to defend its interests in Venezuela – including oil interests – within the international law using “all mechanisms available to us.”Because of Moscow’s support for Maduro, the international community and market analysts are closely watching the relationship of Russian oil companies with Venezuela. “Litasco does not work with Venezuela. Before the restrictions were imposed, Litasco had operations to deliver oil products and to sell oil. There were swap operations. Today there are none, since the sanctions were imposed,” Lukoil’s Alekperov said at the Russian Investment Forum in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.Another Russian oil producer, Gazprom Neft, however, does not see major risks for its oil business in Venezuela, the company’s chief executive officer Alexander Dyukov said at the same event.Gazprom Neft has not supplied and does not supply oil products to Venezuela needed to dilute the thick heavy Venezuelan oil, Dyukov said, noting that the Latin American country hadn’t approached Gazprom Neft for possible supply of oil products for diluents. Under the new wide-ranging U.S. sanctions, Venezuela will not be able to import U.S. naphtha which it has typically used to dilute its heavy crude grades. Analysts expect that a shortage of diluents could accelerate beginning this month the already steadily declining Venezuelan oil production and exports. Venezuela’s crude oil production plunged by another 59,000 bpd from December 2018 to stand at just 1.106 million bpd in January 2019, OPEC’s secondary sources figures showed in the cartel’s closely watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) this week.

Saudi Arabia’s oil deal with Russia is now ‘more fragile than ever,’ analyst says – A rolling oil pact between Russia and Saudi Arabia which seeks to support prices by reducing output looks to be on shaky ground with only the Arab nation appearing to fulfil its promises. Late last year, OPEC producing countries, and non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, agreed to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day(bpd), an arrangement known as OPEC+. Saudi Arabia agreed to account for the bulk of OPEC nation cuts and has confirmed it will drop its crude oil production by a further 400,000 barrels per day to 9.8 million b/d in March. If achieved it would mean that since the December, Saudi Arabia has become responsible for 70 percent of the total OPEC+ target. In turn, Russia was set to account for the greater share of non-OPEC cuts, but from October to the beginning of February had only decreased output by 47,000 barrels per day. The slow pace to cuts from Russian oil producers drew criticism from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who told CNBC in January that Moscow had moved “slower than I’d like.” That barb led to a response from Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak who said at the beginning of February that Russia was “completely fulfilling its obligations in line with earlier announced plans to gradually cut production by May this year.” Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal MENA politics analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in a note Tuesday that any end to Russian-Saudi coordination would likely add significant downward pressure on prices. “Although our base case is still that Riyadh and Moscow find a compromise to extend the agreement, the pact is now looking more fragile than ever,” said Soltvedt.

Russian, Saudi leaders say ready to continue hydrocarbons cooperation- Kremlin – Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz confirmed they are ready to continue cooperation on hydrocarbons during a phone call Tuesday, the Kremlin said in a statement. “When exchanging views on the situation on global hydrocarbons markets, Russia and Saudi Arabia confirmed they are ready to continue coordination,” the Kremlin statement said. Russia and Saudi Arabia have ramped up energy cooperation in recent years, working together to establish the OPEC/non-OPEC production agreement as well as bilateral agreements on joint energy investment. Officials said previously that they are in talks over cooperation on LNG, crude, oil services and petrochemical projects. Putin is expected to visit Saudi Arabia in 2019.

Saudi Arabia resumes familiar role as swing producer: Kemp (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia has resumed its traditional role as the swing producer, sharply reducing its own output to tighten the oil market and push prices higher. The de facto OPEC leader has demonstrated, once again, that it can always tighten the physical market, boost prices and push the calendar spread into backwardation – if it is prepared to cut its own production enough. The familiar problem is that protecting prices comes at the expense of market share: the more the kingdom cuts its own production and tightens the market, the more it encourages increased output from other sources. In this case, rising prices threaten to extend the oil drilling and production boom in the United States, which would ultimately force Saudi Arabia to make even deeper cuts or abandon its price-defence strategy. Saudi Arabia has never been able to escape from this dilemma and the country’s oil policy has cycled between a priority on price defence and volume defence (tmsnrt.rs/2TYmwu1). The kingdom has always struggled to craft an exit strategy from periods of output restraint. Policymakers pursue production curbs for too long, tighten the market too much and drive prices to an unsustainable level. The result is usually a slowdown in consumption growth and an acceleration of non-Saudi sources of production that pushes the market back towards surplus and necessitates a new round of output cuts. The kingdom made the same mistake in 2008, 2014 and 2018, failing to raise production early enough, creating the conditions for unsustainable price inflation and sowing the seeds of the subsequent downturns. Like any oil exporter Saudi Arabia will always benefit from an increase in prices in the short term, but it can then prove difficult to put a lid on the market. Saudi Arabia’s informal price targets tend to ratchet up as realised prices rise, with its targets tending to be somewhat elastic. In the first nine months of 2018 Saudi Arabia allowed the market to tighten too much, pushing prices above $80. That proved unsustainable and triggered a slowdown in consumption growth and a surge in U.S. shale. The kingdom’s market management was not helped by a mercurial White House, which threatened to push Iran’s oil exports to zero and then granted generous sanctions waivers. The question is whether the Saudis will make the same mistake again in 2019. Experience suggests it will.

New Brazil Production Adds to OPEC Headache | Rigzone — When the giant P-67 floating oil production vessel lit its flare tower earlier this month, it marked the start of a Brazilian supply boom that’s poised to challenge OPEC’s efforts to balance the global market. The mammoth facility — long and wide enough to fit an American football field — is the first of four similar platforms to begin pumping crude this year, lifting Brazilian output by roughly 365,000 barrels a day, its largest annual increase in at least 20 years, International Energy Agency estimates show. A second platform, P-76, has also started production, according to a regulatory filing Wednesday. The Brazilian surge, combined with more oil from shale fields from Texas to North Dakota, is set to create a headache for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. In the worst-case scenario, it may force Saudi Arabia and Russia to roll their production cuts over into the second half of the year, testing the strength of the Riyadh-Moscow oil relationship. “Brazil is on the verge of major supply growth,” said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “U.S. shale is not the only driver of increased volumes.” Brazil has disappointed in the past, with output growth coming far below expectations because of maintenance issues, declines in mature fields, and delays installing new vessels for oil production and storage. The Tartaruga Verde field, which should have come online back in late 2017, didn’t start until June 2018. The P-67 itself was delayed several months. Still, oil traders and executives believe this year Brazil will make good on its promises. The P-67 vessel, about 260 kilometers (162 miles) from Rio de Janeiro, will pump about 150,000 barrels a day in the next few months, when it reaches its plateau. The second platform to start this year, P-76, can also process up to 150,000 barrels daily. The facilities are scheduled to be followed by P-68 and P-77 in 2019, and between 2020 and 2023, Petrobras aims to install another ten big vessels.

Despite sanctions, Iran’s oil exports rise in early 2019: sources (Reuters) – Iran’s exports of crude oil were higher than expected in January and are at least holding steady this month, according to tanker data and industry sources, as some customers have increased purchases due to waivers from U.S. sanctions. Shipments are averaging 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, Refinitiv Eikon data showed and a source at a company that tracks Iranian exports said. They were between 1.1 and 1.3 million bpd in January, higher than first thought. A high rate of Iranian shipments would weigh on oil prices and work against a global push to cut supply in 2019 led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC member Iran negotiated an exemption from the production-cutting pact. “We think people are taking more ahead of the deadline,” said the industry source who tracks Iranian exports, referring to the scheduled end of U.S. sanctions waivers in May. Increased exports from the Islamic Republic might prompt renewed U.S. efforts to clamp down on flows. However, this would run the risk of driving up oil prices as Washington is also seeking to curtail exports from another foe, Venezuela. Iran’s exports have become more opaque since U.S. sanctions on the country’s oil sector took effect in November. While most agree they have dropped steeply, views on flows can differ by as much as several hundred thousand barrels per day – enough to affect prices. The February shipments are up from January’s 1.1 million bpd, according to Refinitiv. The industry source estimated January exports at 1.3 million bpd, close to February’s level. In any case, the January figures are higher than initial estimates. Some had predicted Iranian crude exports would stay below 1 million bpd last month, a similar rate to that in December. A source at a second company that tracks Iranian exports said shipments in the first 10 days of February were above 1.1 million bpd and on a rising trend – higher than the source expected. Washington gave waivers to eight buyers – including China, India, Japan and South Korea, which were all purchasing Iranian crude in February, according to Refinitiv.

US State Department discusses Iran crude oil, supply diversification with Seoul: source – A top US State Department official has discussed issues including Iranian crude oil imports with the South Korean government as well as urging it to diversify the country’s crude supply further during a visit to Seoul earlier this week, a diplomatic source told S&P Global Platts Thursday. Francis Fannon, assistant secretary at the State Department’s Bureau for Energy Resources, is on a visit to South Korea and Japan at a time when the East Asian oil consumers are calling for their 180-day sanctions waiver on Iranian oil imports to be extended beyond May.In a meeting with South Korea’s Deputy Foreign Minister Yun Kang-hyeon Wednesday, Fannon and his counterpart “talked about the Iranian crude issue and South Korea’s efforts toward diversification of sources of crude imports,” the diplomatic source in Seoul said. But the source declined to elaborate on what exactly had been discussed on Iranian crude. Fannon also has discussions on broad cooperation in the energy sector with the South Korean government, as well as with unidentified local energy companies on topics including on energy innovation, investment and renewable energy, the source said. SK Innovation, which has been South Korea’s biggest buyer of Iranian crude, said Thursday it has been making efforts to diversify its crude sources. “We have increased crude purchases from the US and other countries as alternatives to Iranian grades because it is uncertain whether the 180-day waiver will be extended,” an official at SK Innovation said. SK Innovation also received about 2 million barrels of Iran’s South Pars condensate in January, which marked South Korea’s first imports since September last year when the Northeast Asian nation fully suspended crude imports from Iran due to the re-imposition of US sanctions. Fannon is due to head for Tokyo Thursday, according to the diplomatic source. The State Department has said the assistant secretary’s two-country tour will focus on energy security, regional cooperation on energy as well as highlighting the importance of energy diversification in the Indo-Pacific region. “This visit to the Indo-Pacific region seems to be aimed at enhancing the regional security by such measures as expanding crude imports from the US, as well as calling for accelerating supply diversification,” “It may lead to Iranian crude imports in the region being reduced as a result,”

Egypt Is Shaping Up To Become A Real Energy Hub – Egypt’s oil and gas future looks very bright. The large scale concessions awarded during the EGYPS2019 conference in Cairo, 11-13 February, shows the appetite of IOCs, such as Shell, BP and ENI in this emerging energy hotspot. After years of a major slump, partly due to continuing payment and security issues, the Pharaohs are again back in the top league. Continuing concerns about security in Egypt’s Western Desert or the Sinai no longer seem to be a breaking point for investors. At the second day of EGYPS2019 the announcement of five onshore and offshore licenses by EGPC, as presented by Egypt’s minister of energy Tarek El Molla, has created a very bright future for the North African oil and gas producer. The success story of the offshore deepwater gas field Zohr, operated by Italian oil major ENI, could be supported further by positive results from current exploration efforts in the offshore Noor field. If expectations are met, a new gas hub could be in the making, combining Cypriot and Israeli production with Egypt’s existing LNG infrastructure. The long awaited results of the Egyptian natural gas holding company EGAS were announced on the 12th of February. Dutch oil major Shell was awarded 3 concessions, all crude blocks in sector 7 West Fayoum, sector 9 South East of Horus, and sector 10 South AbuSnan. Italian oil major ENI, currently in the news with regards to its major offshore gas projects Zohr and Noor, was awarded sector 11 East of Siwa, while sector 2 went to the General Petroleum Company, sector 4 to Neptune Energy, and sector 5 North Beni Suef to Merlon International.With regards to the Egyptian gas prospects, American oil giant ExxonMobil, which hasn’t been very active in Egypt for years, reentered the North African country by winning the north of Amreya Marine Company concession area. The North Sidi Gaber, as well as North El Fanar areas, went to Shell and Petronas. The North West Sherbin concession has been awarded to British oil major BP and Eni.

How China Came to Dominate South Sudan’s Oil – Few countries would look at South Sudan as an ideal location for a business venture, but China has built much of its reputation as a world power on an economic philosophy of risk-taking. South Sudan also offers a lucrative opportunity for entrepreneurs intrepid enough to take it: the East African country boasts 3.5 billion barrels’ worth of crude oil in proven reserves, and petroleum geologists will likely find more in the two-thirds of South Sudan that they have yet to explore. Despite the challenges of working in a war zone, China dominates what analysts have assessed as the third largest oil reserves in Africa.“Even before South Sudan became independent in 2011, China had a monopoly on the oil sector in Sudan,” Dr. David H. Shinn, a former American ambassador to Burkina Faso and Ethiopia and an adjunct professor of international affairs at the George Washington University, told The Diplomat. “This monopoly continued in independent South Sudan. While oil companies from other countries considered entering South Sudan, a combination of corruption and civil conflict kept them out.”China first decided to enter the petroleum industry in Sudan in 1995, 16 years before South Sudan gained independence and right in the middle of the Second Sudanese Civil War. The United States’ economic sanctions on Sudan, which faced accusations of committing war crimes at home and supporting terrorism abroad, did little to deter Chinese companies eager to take advantage of Sudanese oil reserves. Much of China’s success in Africa comes from the world power’s tendency to avoid criticizing allies who ignore human rights and international law. This approach to foreign policy underpins the Belt and Road Initiative, a project designed to expand China’s sphere of influence in the Global South. The South Sudan – China Friendship Association, whose board includes former South Sudanese foreign and interior ministers, has promoted the ambitious Chinese endeavor on Twitter.

Saudi Aramco agrees tie-up for $10 billion project in China – State-owned Saudi Aramco has signed an agreement to form a joint venture with Chinese conglomerate Norinco to develop a refining and petrochemical complex in Panjin city, saying the project is worth more than $10 billion. Aramco and Norinco, along with Panjin Sincen, will form a new company called Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Co as part of a project that will include a 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery with a 1.5 million metric tonnes per annum (mmtpa) ethylene cracker, Aramco said on Friday. The deal was signed during a visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Beijing as part of an Asia tour. Aramco will hold 35 percent of the new company, with Norinco and Panjin Sincen owning 36 percent and 29 percent respectively, the statement said. Aramco will supply up to 70 percent of the crude feedstock for the complex, which is expected to start operations in 2024. The value of the project means it is the largest Sino-Foreign joint-venture, Aramco said. The agreement “is a clear demonstration of Saudi Aramco’s strategy to move from beyond a buyer-seller relationship, to one where we can make significant investments to contribute to China’s economic growth and development,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said in the statement. It said there were also plans to establish a fuels retail business.

China Oil Find Could Trigger Shale Drilling Surge — An oil discovery in a remote corner of northwestern China could trigger a surge in shale drilling, benefiting service companies and providing a needed output boost for the world’s biggest importer, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. PetroChina Co. has achieved daily output of 100 tons of oil (733 barrels) at a test well in the Jimsar field in Xinjiang province, suggesting that shale oil has strong commercial potential in the nation for the first time, analysts including Andy Meng said in a Feb. 18 note. China has had some success in producing shale gas, but advancing on shale oil would be a particular help to the world’s largest crude importer, which has seen output decline since 2015 even as the country’s leadership extols the virtues of energy self-sufficiency. Still, it’s unlikely China will be able to scale the heights of U.S. shale, which accounts for about half of American production, Morgan Stanley said. The bank estimates shale oil output in China could reach about 100,000 to 200,000 barrels a day by 2025 — still a sliver of total output. By comparison, the U.S. produced 8.3 million barrels a day in February, according to Rystad Energy. Nevertheless, excitement over shale could spur more spending and boost revenue for the oilfield service companies that will be called on to handle the higher workloads, Morgan Stanley said. Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co., which is up 31 percent this year, and SPT Energy Group Inc., which has risen 18 percent, are among the potential beneficiaries, it said. “We believe the Jimsar shale oil discovery is likely to trigger China’s shale oil revolution,” “We expect a further capex rise in 2019, which could make onshore oilfield services names the key beneficiaries.” While Jimsar is China’s first shale oil find, the country has been drilling shale gas for years. But difficult geology and restrictions that keep drilling in the hands of the state-owned giants have slowed development. While the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that China has nearly twice as much underground shale gas as the U.S., the U.S. produced about 639 billion cubic meters of the fuel in 2017, compared to about 9 billion in China.

Hedge funds accelerate oil buying: Kemp – (Reuters) – Investors bought crude oil futures and options at the fastest rate for almost six months in the week to Feb. 12. Hedge fund managers are becoming steadily more bullish on the outlook for oil prices as Saudi Arabia makes deep cuts in production, sanctions hit Venezuela and Iran, and the U.S. and China inch towards a trade deal. Hedge funds and other money managers were net buyers of 32 million barrels of Brent crude futures and options in the week to Feb. 22, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe. Portfolio managers have been net buyers of Brent in nine out of the last 10 weeks, boosting their net position by a total of 130 million barrels since Dec. 4. Last week saw the largest purchases so far. Earlier in the current cycle most position-building came from closing previous bearish short positions, but the balance shifted in the most recent week with most accumulation from initiating new bullish long positions. Fund managers opened 29 million barrels of new long positions while cutting short positions by 3 million barrels in the week to Feb. 12. Funds now hold a net long position of 266 million barrels in Brent, up from 136 million at the start of December, though still far below the almost 500-million-barrel position at the end of September. Similar position-building is evident in European gasoil, where funds were net buyers of 11 million barrels of futures and options in the week to Feb. 12. Portfolio managers have been net buyers of gasoil for six consecutive weeks, with total purchases amounting to 38 million barrels. Like Brent, last week’s purchases of gasoil contracts were the largest so far, and the balance has shifted from short covering to initiating new long positions.

Oil Trades Near Highest Level Since November (Bloomberg) — Oil traded near the highest level since November on optimism the U.S. and China can reach a trade deal and as an outage at the world’s largest offshore field in Saudi Arabia signaled tightening supply. Futures in New York rose as much as 1 percent after advancing 5.4 percent last week. President Donald Trump said talks with China were “very productive” as his team returned from Beijing and readied for another round of discussions in Washington this week, raising hopes that a trade war between the world’s largest economies will ease. The Saudis, meanwhile, were said to be repairing a damaged power cable that’s curbed output at the Safaniyah field. Crude’s surged about 24 percent this year as Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to expand their output cuts, easing concerns that record U.S. production would result in a global glut. More supply is being threatened because of American sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. Reports that the U.S. and China had reached consensus in principle on the main topics in their negotiations further helped boost investors’ risk appetite. “Markets are astonished by the amount of production cuts and the further reductions Saudi plans to make,” said Howie Lee, a Singapore-based economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Even though there was no conclusive trade deal from Beijing, the already bullish oil market took no news as good news.” West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose as much as 54 cents to $56.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and traded 49 cents higher at $56.08 at 7:34 a.m. in London. Transactions will be booked Tuesday for settlement because of the U.S. President’s Day holiday. Prices last week posted their biggest gain in more than a month. Brent for April settlement was at $66.65 a barrel, up 40 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It gained 6.7 percent last week. The global benchmark crude’s premium over WTI for the same month narrowed to $10.19, after widening to the biggest spread in more than three months on Friday.

Brent steadies, set for biggest first-quarter rise since 2011 (Reuters) – Brent crude oil steadied on Monday, on track for its strongest first quarter in eight years, thanks to a growing belief among investors that OPEC’s supply cuts will prevent a build-up in unused fuel, though concern over China’s economy offset gains. Brent futures were last down 6 cents at $66.19 a barrel by 1239 GMT, having touched a 2019 high of $66.83, while U.S. futures were up 37 cents at $55.96 a barrel. Oil has risen nearly 25 percent so far this year and is on course for its strongest first-quarter performance since 2011, thanks largely to a commitment by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies to cut output. “Our numbers … do tell us that we are looking at the tightest H1 crude balance in many years and, as such, a certain degree of price support does simply make sense for the time being,” consultancy JBC Energy said in a note. Refiners around the world are also having to pay more to secure supplies of the medium, or heavy, sour crudes produced by Iran and Venezuela, both of which are under U.S. sanctions. The broader financial markets eased a little after data showing a drop in Chinese car sales in January raised concerns about the world’s second-largest economy. Some of this weakness rubbed off on the oil market, but analysts said the overall trend in crude prices remained convincingly upwards for now.

Brent eases from 2019 highs as markets await trade talks outcome – Oil stayed within sight of its 2019 high of almost $67 a barrel on Tuesday, supported by OPEC-led supply cuts although concern about slowing economic growth that would curb demand weighed. The supply curbs led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have helped crude prices to rise more than 20 percent this year. U.S. sanctions against OPEC members Iran and Venezuela have also tightened the market.Brent crude slipped 31 cents to $66.19 a barrel, not far from the 2019 high of $66.83 reached on Monday.U.S. crude was up 38 cents at $55.97.”The market is slowly regaining its bullish footing, subject to the perception of economic risks tied to U.S.-China trade talks,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas.Demand-side worries remain the main drag on prices. HSBC Holdings warned on Tuesday that an economic slowdown in China and Britain would throw up further hurdles this year.More talks between the United States and China to resolve their trade dispute will take place in Washington on Tuesday. Traders said they were cautious on taking large new positions before the outcome of the talks.”If they falter, we run the risk of sell-offs like we had in December,” Tchilinguirian said. OPEC last week lowered its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2019 to 1.24 million barrels per day and some analysts believe it could be weaker still.

Brent dips as demand worries weigh, U.S. oil prices hit 2019 high – (Reuters) – Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday as concerns about global crude oil demand and uncertainty over the latest round of U.S.-China trade talks countered investor optimism around tightening supplies. Brent crude slipped 5 cents to settle at $66.45 a barrel, hovering below its 2019 high of $66.83 reached on Monday. U.S. crude was up 50 cents to $56.09 a barrel, its highest since November 2018. Washington’s sanctions on oil out of Venezuela, a top supplier of sour crude to the United States, has helped support U.S. futures prices, In the bigger picture, “I think the market is looking for an excuse to follow through on the breakout, but there are still a lot of questions surrounding the U.S.-China trade deal” and the global economy, he said. A fresh round of talks aimed at resolving the trade dispute between the United States and China began on Tuesday in Washington, with higher-level discussions planned for later in the week. Traders said they were cautious about taking large new positions before the outcome of the talks. In a red flag about the economic outlook, Europe’s biggest bank HSBC warned it may delay some investments this year as it missed 2018 profit forecasts due to slowing growth in China and Britain. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week lowered its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2019 to 1.24 million barrels per day. Some analysts believe it could be weaker. To stop a build-up of inventories that could weigh on prices, OPEC+, which includes members of the producer group and allies like Russia, began a new supply cut of 1.2 million bpd on Jan. 1. The cuts have helped crude rise more than 20 percent. Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, said they supported continued coordination on the global energy markets, the Kremlin said on Tuesday. Investors said the statement eased doubts that Russia would stick to the pact.

WTI Settles Above $56 – The March WTI contract price gained 50 cents Tuesday, settling at $56.09 per barrel. The WTI traded within a range from $55.29 to $56.33. Brent crude oil for April delivery ended the day at $66.45 per barrel. Tuesday’s settlement reflects a 20-cent gain for the Brent. Another potential factor of note for the oil market could be an attempt by Saudi Arabia to open up another front in its quest to curb production, Krishnan said. “While the Saudis have achieved much by targeting their production cuts on the heavier oils they ship to the United States, reports suggest they are also planning to reduce light crude oil supplies to Asian customers for cargoes loading in March, in an attempt to prevent Asian stockpiles of such light crude from building,” Krishnan explained. “In the past, the Saudis did not limit providing their Asian customers supplies of Arab Extra Light crude above contractual volumes.” The new twist in the Saudi game plan could backfire, added Krishnan. “This Saudi move to try and cover all basis with their production cuts could eat into their prized market share in Asia if they’re not careful, especially with U.S. producers just waiting to encroach on that turf,” Krishnan said. Moreover, Krishnan observed that a recent milestone in India is helping to elevate the United States’ oil market profile. “Boosting the significance of U.S. crude production, Indian Oil Corp. announced this week that is has signed a $1.5 billion deal to buy oil from the United States in an effort to reduce dependence on traditional suppliers,” said Krishnan. “This was the first term contract finalized by an Indian oil company for import of U.S.-origin crude grades, and the announcement came interestingly a day before Saudi Crown Prince Mohamad bin Salman landed in India for a state visit.”

Oil near 2019 highs amid OPEC cuts, US sanctions – Oil traded roughly flat on Wednesday after the U.S. government said shale output would rise to a record next month, denting a rally that sent prices to their highest this year. Brent futures were at $66.34 a barrel, down 11 cents on the day around 10:10 a.m. ET (1510 GMT), still within sight of Monday’s high for the year of $66.83. U.S. futures were at $56.08 a barrel, down 1 cent, having touched a 2019 peak of $56.39 earlier. “Brent is trading in a narrow corridor at around $66.5 per barrel, while WTI is at around $56,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note. “This still leaves them within spitting distance of the three-month high they achieved at the start of the week … It seems that the sharp rise in oil production in the U.S. is having a slowing effect after all.” The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report on Tuesday shale production alone will hit a record 8.4 million barrels per day next month, suggesting little chance of a near-term slowdown in overall U.S. crude output. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Wednesday he hoped the oil market would be balanced by April and that there would be no gap in supplies due to U.S. sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. The restrictions on the energy sectors of Iran and Venezuela by the United States have added to the drop in availability of the kind of crude oil that yields more valuable middle distillates, rather than cheaper fuels, such as gasoline. Despite the sanctions, Iran’s crude exports were higher than expected in January, averaging around 1.25 million bpd, according to Refinitiv ship tracking data. Many analysts had expected Iran oil exports to drop below 1 million bpd after the imposition of U.S. sanctions last November, although it was much below the peak 2.5 million bpd reached mid-2018. Barclays said U.S. sanctions meant “although there is no lack of resources, there is an increasing lack of access to them”.

Oil Prices Pull Back Amid Surging US Supply – Oil prices pulled back from recent highs on Wednesday as surging U.S. output and concerns over slowing global growth overshadowed investor optimism over OPEC-led supply cuts as well as the U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Global benchmark Brent crude dropped nearly half a percent to $66.14 per barrel, not far off their 2019 high of 66.83 dollars per barrel reached on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were down 0.3 percent at $56.30 per barrel after hitting 2019 highs of 56.39 earlier in the day. U.S. crude production jumped by more than 2 million bpd in 2018 to a record 11.9 million bpd amid booming shale oil production, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday in a report. Output is expected to keep rising while the global economy witnesses a synchronized slowdown in growth, according to BNP Paribas.

Oil Markets Poised For A Breakout – OPEC+ cuts, supply disruptions and an easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China has boosted crude oil to a three-month high. Some analysts see higher prices ahead, as the OPEC+ cuts create a tighter backdrop. Any unexpected outage could send prices much higher, while a breakthrough in the trade war could remove one of the largest downside risks. “Brent and WTI are both now seriously testing a major resistance zone, around $65 and $55, respectively, the break of which could be the catalyst for another rally,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA, wrote in a morning market briefing.. Saudi Arabia is going above and beyond in its production cuts, but it’s unclear how long Riyadh will be willing to shoulder the burden alone. “Saudi Arabia’s production cuts by more than the required level also serve to offset the lack of compliance shown by countries like Iraq. It is doubtful whether Saudi Arabia will be willing to do so long-term, however. After all, the Saudis are losing market shares to US shale oil producers,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. A 495-megawatt energy storage system combined with a solar farm is set to be installed in Texas. Ironically, the project is intended to support oil operations in the Permian, according to Bloomberg. The energy storage system will be the world’s largest. According to BP’s latest energy outlook, renewable energy and natural gas will together claim 85 percent of the world’s energy supply growth through 2040. The new analysis “brings into sharp focus just how fast the world’s energy systems are changing, and how the dual challenge of more energy with fewer emissions is framing the future,” BP CEO Bob Dudley said.

Oil near 2019 highs amid OPEC cuts, but economic slowdown applies brakes – Oil prices hovered around 2019 highs on Thursday, bolstered by OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, but were capped by slowing growth in the global economy.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were at $56.77 a barrel around 10:55 a.m. ET (1555 GMT), 39 cents below their last settlement. WTI hit a fresh 2019 high of $57.61 earlier in the day.Brent crude futures eased by 26 cents to $66.82 after touching a 2019 peak on Wednesday at $67.38.Oil prices have been driven up this year by supply cuts led by OPEC.OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia agreed late last year, along with producer allies such as Russia, to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day to prevent a supply overhang from growing.OPEC member Nigeria signaled on Wednesday that it would limit output after its production climbed in January.”Willingness of the OPEC+ group to adhere with the output cut agreement will remain supportive of oil prices in the run-up to their scheduled April meeting,” said Abhishek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy in London.”Sharply declining oil output from Iran and Venezuela will further prompt bullish sentiment in the market.”U.S. sanctions have hit Iranian and Venezuelan crude exports while unrest has curbed Libyan output. However, analysts said that a global economic slowdown – signs of which emerged late last year – was preventing prices from surging beyond highs reached this week.

Oil traders bet on Saudi Arabia and White House lifting prices: Kemp (Reuters) – Oil traders are becoming very bullish on the outlook for prices, betting that Saudi Arabia will do whatever it takes to tighten the market even if consumption growth slows, helped by U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Brent’s calendar spread for the second half of 2019 has surged into a backwardation of 90 cents per barrel, the strongest for more than three months and a huge swing from a 70 cent contango near the end of last year. For many traders, spreads rather than spot prices are a better indicator of expected balance between production and consumption (“Price relations between July and September Wheat Futures at Chicago”, Working, 1933). Backwardation implies many traders expect the market to be undersupplied in the second half of the year with a significant drawdown in global inventories of crude and fuels. The current swing to backwardation is similar to previous shifts in market structure when OPEC and its allies reduced production in 2017 and the United States re-imposed sanctions on Iran in 2018. Both of those shifts were accelerated and amplified by significant position-building in crude oil by hedge fund managers, and something similar is likely in 2019. Hedge funds and other money managers have been net buyers of Brent crude futures and options in nine of the last 10 weeks with net purchases equivalent to 130 million barrels (https://tmsnrt.rs/2TZZN0D ). Fund managers have almost doubled their bullish position in Brent to 266 million barrels, up from just 136 million barrels in early December, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe. Position-building has been very similar to previous episodes, but total positions are still well below previous peaks of 500-600 million barrels, suggesting it could still have some way to run. Like other financial traders, hedge funds and other money managers tend to concentrate their positions in nearby futures contracts where there is more liquidity. Hedge fund buying is therefore lifting the price of nearby contracts and accelerating the shift into backwardation (just as fund selling depressed nearby contracts and accelerated the shift to contango in the fourth quarter).

Oil ends lower as U.S. crude supplies show 5th straight weekly rise –Crude-oil futures finished lower Thursday after a U.S. government report revealed that domestic supplies climbed for a fifth straight week as production jumped to a record level, but overall signs of declines in world-wide output capped price losses for the session.Oil prices for both benchmarks on Wednesday had marked their highest settlements since November on signs of tighter global crude inventories.April West Texas Intermediate crude on its first full day as a front-month contract, lost 20 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $56.96 a barrel. March WTI had climbed for six consecutive sessions on the New York Mercantile Exchange to settle at a roughly three-month high of $56.92 on Wednesday, the day the contract expired. Global benchmark April Brent was little changed, inching lower by a penny to end at $67.07 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. The Energy Information Administration on Thursday reported that domestic crude supplies rose a fifth straight week, up 3.7 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 15. That was a bit more than the 3.5 million-barrel rise expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. Supply data were released a day later than usual because of Monday’s Presidents Day holiday. “Rebounding imports, both into the Midwest and the U.S. Gulf, have combined with ongoing subdued refinery runs to yield a fifth consecutive build to crude stocks,” U.S. oil production also continues to hit record levels, with the EIA’s report showing total domestic output climbing by 100,000 barrels to a record of 12 million barrels a day last week. A separate monthly EIA report issued Tuesday showed expectations for an 84,000 barrel-a-day rise in March to 8.398 million barrels a day for oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays. “U.S. production finally hit the 12 [million barrel per day] mark and we expect that number to increase in the weeks and months to come as new pipelines in the Permian [Basin in the southwestern U.S.] are coming online,” Petroleum products, meanwhile, saw lower U.S. inventories. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles each edged down by 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the EIA. The S&P Global Platts survey had shown expectations for supply declines of 1.1 million barrels for gasoline and 1.4 million for distillates. On Nymex, March gasoline rose 1.6 cents, or 1%, to $1.614 a gallon, while March heating oil added 1.8 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.036 a gallon. The EIA also released data on natural gas Thursday, with supplies down 177 billion cubic feet for the week ended Feb. 15. That was larger the average forecast for a decline of 165 billion, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts. March natural gas settled at $2.697 per million British thermal units, up 6.1 cents, or 2.3%.

Oil prices hit fresh 2019 highs on trade hopes – Oil prices rose to their highest levels this year on Friday, supported by OPEC’s ongoing supply cuts and hopes that Washington and Beijing may soon end their trade dispute. International Brent crude futures were up 49 cents at $67.56 per barrel around 10:10 a.m. ET (1510 GMT), striking a fresh high of $67.73 going back to mid-November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 75 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $57.71 per barrel, also setting a fresh 2019 high at $57.81. Traders said prices were lifted from earlier drops by hopes that Washington and Beijing could resolve their trade disputes, which have dented global economic growth, before a March 1 deadline, during negotiations this week. Prices have also been supported by supply cuts led by OPEC. OPEC and some non-affiliated producers such as Russia agreed late last year to cut output by 1.2 million bpd to prevent a large supply overhang from growing. Goldman Sachs said in a note that it expects OPEC output to average 31.1 million bpd in 2019, down from 31.9 million bpd. At least in part offsetting that is surging U.S. crude oil production, which reached 12 million bpd for the first time last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. That means U.S. crude output has soared by almost 2.5 million bpd since the start of 2018, and by a whopping 5 million bpd since 2013. America is the only country to ever reach 12 million bpd of production.

Oil Prices Up On Trade Optimism – Oil is set to close out another week of gains, this time juiced by optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations. But the gains are also coming because OPEC+ is taking supply off of the market. “Saudi Arabia is delivering on the cuts it pledged, and I have no doubt they’ll deliver on pledges to do more,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, Oslo-based chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “It was a production boost from OPEC and an equity sell-off that pushed oil down during the fourth quarter, and now as both of those elements are in reverse prices are going up.” U.S. shale production is expected to grow by 84,000 bpd in March, according to the EIA, marking another month of strong increases. The gains will be led by the Permian (+43,000 bpd), followed by smaller contributions from the Niobrara (+16,000 bpd), the Bakken (+13,000 bpd), the Eagle Ford (+9,000 bpd) and Appalachia (+3,000 bpd). The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) rose to 8,798 in January, a 2.4 percent increase from December. Meanwhile, weekly EIA data suggest that total U.S. production surpassed 12 million barrels per day last week, another record high. . Press reports suggest that the U.S. and China are making progress on trade negotiations, and President Trump has indicated he would be willing to let the talks continue past the March 1 deadline if progress was significant. Trump is expected to meet with China’s vice premier and top trade negotiator on Friday. There are still thorny issues that will be difficult to solve, but markets are welcoming the potential breakthrough in trade talks. U.S. upstream M&A activity is set to slow this year, after dipping in 2018 compared to the year before. Last year, the number of deals declined to 93, compared to 125 in 2017, according to PwC. Deals in the U.S. shale industry fell from 106 in 2017 to 85 in 2018, although the value of the deals ballooned from $67 billion to $90 billion. Despite the expected slowdown, consolidation will continue, with smaller players selling out to larger ones as the industry pushes for scale. “The rationale for consolidation has never been higher,” Wells Fargo Securities managing director David Humphreys told Argus Media. “Scale is the key.”

Oil ends at a nearly 3 1/2-month high – U.S. crude-oil futures on Friday posted their highest close in more than three months, as U.S. equities and other assets found traction against the backdrop of upbeat U.S.-China trade talks.Oil finished lower Thursday after a U.S. government report revealed that domestic supplies climbed for a fifth straight week as production jumped to a record level, but ongoing evidence of declines in world-wide output capped price losses for the session.April West Texas Intermediate crude CLJ9, +0.19% rose 30 cents, or 0.5%, to end at $57.26 a barrel, which would represent the most-active contract’s loftiest close since Nov. 12, according to FactSet data. For the week, WTI rose roughly 3%.Global benchmark April Brent LCOJ9, -0.24% added 5 cents, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $67.12 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, also representing its highest finish since Nov. 12. The international benchmark gained 1.3% for the week, its second weekly gain in a row.U.S. and Chinese trade representatives reportedly met for more than nine hours Thursday. Trump met with China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He on Friday. Still, deep divisions remain over fundamental issues, with U.S. officials pressing China to halt what Washington calls illicit technology transfers and improper subsidies for state-owned firms, The Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday reported that domestic crude supplies rose a fifth straight week, up 3.7 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 15. That was a bit more than the 3.5 million-barrel rise expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts.“While Saudi Arabia willingly cuts output and exports, the U.S. producers continue to flood the market with shale oil,” “Drilling activity has stabilized, which brings much-needed cooling to the recent shale boom frenzy. Yet U.S. oil production remains on track to reach 13 million barrels per day by the end of the year.

UAE Set to Buy $5.4bn of Arms Amid World Outrage Over Yemen War – The United Arab Emirates signed contracts to buy more than $5.4bn worth of arms and military equipment during an exhibition for weapons manufacturers in Abu Dhabi this week, despite ongoing calls to end the war in Yemen, where the UAE is playing a major role.The UAE’s official news agency WAM reported on Thursday that the deals were secured with companies from countries around the world, including the United States, China, Russia, France and the UK, at the International Defence Exhibition and Conference (IDEX).The UAE also awarded contracts to domestic weapon manufacturers during the five-day event, which concludes on Friday, WAM said.Abu Dhabi struck deals worth $1.9bn with US firms Lockheed Martin and Raytheon to purchase air defence missiles, Reuters reported.Sales agreements between foreign countries and American weapon manufacturers must be approved by the US State Department before they can be finalised. Congress also has veto power to stop such deals.The UAE’s weapons contracts come at a time of growing international criticism of the ongoing conflict in Yemen.Since 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have led a military campaign in Yemen against the country’s Houthi rebels to restore the government of exiled President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.The conflict, described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis by the United Nations, has killed tens of thousands of people and brought the already impoverished country to the verge of famine.US lawmakers have been pushing to end Washington’s assistance to the Saudi-led coalition.Earlier this month, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution to end the country’s involvement in the conflict. The bill is expected to soon be taken up by the Senate, which approved a similar measure late last year. While much of the criticism has focused on Saudi Arabia’s role in the conflict, the UAE is also playing a major part in the conflict in Yemen.

Iran Navy Begins Massive Drill Stretching Across World’s Key Oil Chokepoints – Iran’s navy has begun a three day war game exercise on Friday in the Persian Gulf, in an expansive area encompassing Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, to the Sea of Oman and even stretching to northern parts of the Indian Ocean, state media reports. Some reports indicate the games could go on for as much as a week, but all emphasized the “large-scale” nature of the drills in which Iran’s navy will showcase the Fateh-class submarine – a domestically built sub carrying cruise missiles and torpedoes, as well as its Sahand destroyer.The cruise missile-firing capable Fateh, or “Conqueror”, was launched for the first time at the start of this week and has been touted as “state-of-the-art” and with the ability to stay underwater for five weeks at a time. Crucially, the large exercises come after last week’s US-sponsored Warsaw conference in which both Israeli and US officials made threats of war with Tehran. Indeed during the conference Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu openly stated that he was attending the summit with an aim to “advance the common interest of war with Iran.”The games also come at a time when even foreign policy establishment insiders, such as the Council on Foreign Relation’s Steven Cook, increasingly acknowledge that the White House’s “march to war against Iran” is now “echoing the drumbeats” of the lead up to the 2003 Iraq invasion. Writing in Foreign Policy, Cook warns: Taken together – the Warsaw conference, Pence’s bullying of the Europeans, Bolton’s threatening video, and the broader background noise in Washington – the events of the past week were familiar in a foreboding way. The chatter about Iran has not become the war fever that gripped Washington in 2002 over Iraq, but the echoes of that year are not hard to miss in the Trump administration’s effort to shape the domestic and international debate about Iran.

The Cult-Like Group Fighting Iran – Der Spiegel.- On a country road in northwestern Albania, a rather odd collection of men and women living together in a camp are busy preparing themselves to topple the Iranian regime. Three times per week, many of them apparently practice slitting throats, breaking hands, jabbing out eyeballs with fingers and performing the so-called Glasgow Smile, which involves cutting cheeks from the corner of the mouth up toward the ear. That, at least, is the story told by a former member of the group.The camp, roughly the size of 50 football fields and surrounded by high fences, is located just a 35-minute drive from the lively bars of downtown Tirana, but the people inside live in something of a time capsule. Just like everyone in the camp, Somayeh Mohammadi is a member of the People’s Mujahedin, a once-militant Iranian opposition group that was listed by the United States. and Europe as a terrorist group until 2012. These days, however, several members of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump are supporting the group, commonly known by the abbreviation MEK. Both the administration and the MEK, after all, want to see the end of the current regime in Iran — and now that the group has Washington’s backing, the Mujahedin apparently hopes that its time has finally come.On the sidelines of the Middle East conference in Warsaw, which began on Wednesday, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of possible “war” with Iran. And at an MEK rally in Warsaw, Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani called for regime change in Tehran. For almost 30 years, several thousand members of the People’s Mujahedin lived in exile in Iraq, but in 2013, many of them moved to Albania. And since 2017, the majority of the group has lived in the isolated camp near Tirana.

Why Iran Needs To Talk With The Taliban – The Trump administration is preparing a public argument for war on Iran. The Washington Times has some ‘senior administration officials’ claiming that Iran is allied with al-Qaeda and thus could and should be attacked: Iran-al Qaeda alliance may provide legal rationale for U.S. military strikes: Iran is providing high-level al Qaeda operatives with a clandestine sanctuary to funnel fighters, money and weapons across the Middle East, according to Trump administration officials who warn that the long-elusive, complex relationship between two avowed enemies of America has evolved into an unacceptable global security threat. ..The Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) passed by Congress in the days after the 9/11 attacks provided the legal framework for President George W. Bush to order U.S. military action against the Taliban for harboring Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan. The law has underpinned the U.S. counterterrorism campaign and has largely gone unchanged for the past 17 years through three presidential administrations. Congressional and legal sources say the law may now provide a legal rationale for striking Iranian territory or proxies should President Trump decide that Tehran poses a looming threat to the U.S. or Israel and that economic sanctions are not strong enough to neutralize the threat. That Iran is colluding with al-Qaeda, which it actively fights in Syria and Iraq, is obviously nonsense. When the U.S. attacked Afghanistan some families of al-Qaeda fighters fled to Iran where they were put under house arrest. They were and still are hostages Iran uses to prevent al-Qaeda attacks against its country. The Washington Times admits this: One captured 2007 document, apparently written by an al Qaeda operative, concluded that, in the wake of the 2003 U.S. invasion of neighboring Iraq, “Iranian authorities decided to keep our brothers as a bargaining chip.”

Trump Tells Europe to “Take Back” 800 ISIS Fighters or He “Will Be Forced to Release Them” – Late Saturday evening President Trump lashed out at allies Britain, France, and Germany via twitter related to the United States’ Syria withdrawal. He urged European nations to take responsibility for their own captured foreign fighters in Syria by repatriating and prosecuting them; otherwise, Trump warned, the terrorists could “permeate Europe” upon their release. “The Caliphate is ready to fall,” Trump tweeted. “The alternative is not a good one in that we will be forced to release them…” He said that the US “does not want to watch” Islamic State (or ISIS) “permeate Europe,” which he indicated would be the inevitable outcome. The United States is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies to take back over 800 ISIS fighters that we captured in Syria and put them on trial. The Caliphate is ready to fall. The alternative is not a good one in that we will be forced to release them……. – Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 17, 2019 As part of the strange threat and sure to be controversial statements, the president further reaffirmed total US victory over ISIS as he mentioned US forces would imminently begin “pulling back after 100% Caliphate victory.” Earlier this month the Wall Street Journal cited US defense officials to indicate that “the military plans to pull a significant portion of its forces out by mid-March, with a full withdrawal coming by the end of April.” The fate of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mostly Syrian Kurds, has remained a huge unknown as Turkey has been amassing troops along its border to invade in the aftermath of a US draw down. Some Pentagon generals have also warned of the rapid comeback of ISIS in the wake of any “power vacuum”. Trump’s latest tweet warning that ISIS foreign fighters would “permeate Europe” is also likely a reference to the fact that the SDF still maintains many hundreds of captured ISIS terrorists in its jails. SDF leadership has echoed a similar warning of late, saying it’ll be forced to release the jihadists as a result of any rapid US exit. The UN has estimated that in total up to 42,000 foreign fighters traveled to Iraq and Syria to join IS – which appears a very conservative estimate – and which includes about 900 from Germany and 850 from Britain.

But They Are Dangerous! European Leaders Shocked At Trump’s ISIS Ultimatum – After President Trump’s provocative tweets on Sunday wherein he urged European countries to “take back” and prosecute some 800 ISIS foreign fighters as US forces withdraw from Syria, or else “we will be forced to release them,” the message has been met with shock, confusion and indifference in Europe. Trump had warned the terrorists could subsequently “permeate Europe”. Possibly the most pathetic and somewhat ironic response came from Denmark, where a spokesperson for Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said Copenhagen won’t take back Danish Islamic State foreign fighters to stand trial in the country, according to the German Press Agency DPA. “We are talking about the most dangerous people in the world. We should not take them back,” the spokesperson stressed, and added that the war in Syria is ongoing, making the US president’s statement premature. Germany’s response was also interesting, given a government official framed ISIS fighters’ ability to return as a “right”. A spokeswoman for Germany’s interior ministry said, “In principle, all German citizens and those suspected of having fought for so-called Islamic State have the right to return.” She even added that German ISIS fighters have “consular access” – as if the terrorists would walk right up to some embassy window in Turkey or Beirut! Noting that the Iraqi government has also of late contacted Germany to transport foreign fighters to their home country for trial, she added, “But in Syria, the German government cannot guarantee legal and consular duties for jailed German citizens due to the armed conflict there.”

Assad Warns Syria’s Kurds That US Will not Protect Them – President Bashar al-Assad warned Syria’s Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on Sunday that their ally the United States would not protect them against any Turkish offensive as Washington looks to withdraw its troops.The US is set to pull out its soldiers from Syria after allied Kurdish-led forces capture the Islamic State (IS) group’s last holdout in the war-torn country.Any withdrawal risks leaving the Kurds exposed to a long-threatened attack by neighboring Turkey, which views some Kurdish fighters as “terrorists”.“We tell those groups who are betting on the Americans that the Americans will not protect you,” Assad said in a televised speech, reported by the AFP news agency. “The Americans do not hold you in their heart… They will put you in their pocket so you can be a bargaining chip.”Apart from fighting IS, the Kurds have largely stayed out of Syria’s civil war, working towards semi-autonomy in the northeast of the country. The looming prospect of a US withdrawal, announced in December, has sent them scrambling to rebuild ties with the Damascus government, but talks so far have failed to reach a compromise. Reuters reported a senior US general said on Sunday that the US would have to sever its military assistance to the SDF if the fighters partner with Assad or Russia. The remarks by Army Lieutenant General Paul LaCamera, who is commander of the US-led coalition battling IS in Iraq and Syria, underscore the tough decisions facing the SDF as the US prepares to withdraw from Syria. LaCamera warned that US law prohibits cooperation with Russia as well as with Assad’s military. Assad warned: “If you don’t prepare yourselves to defend your country and resist, you will be nothing but a slave to the Ottomans,” using a historic term for Turks. Almost eight years into a war that has killed more than 360,000 people and displaced millions, Assad’s forces control almost two-thirds of the country.Just two areas remain beyond its control: the militant-held northwestern region of Idlib, and about a third of the country under control of Kurdish-led forces. “Every inch of Syria will be liberated,” Assad said in Sunday’s speech.

Syrian Kurdish Commander Calls for US to Keep 1,500 Troops in Syria – In comments to reporters on Monday, Kurdish commander Mazloum Kobani, the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), called on the United States to completely halt plans to withdraw from Syria, saying he needs an “enduring” presence from the US-led coalition.Kobani not only says he wants air support from the US, but a “force on the ground to coordinate with us.” That ground force, according to the commander, should include between 1,000 and 1,500 international forces.This would be expected to be overwhelmingly US troops, of course. There are an estimated 2,000 US troops in Syria, and a few hundred others from the coalition, mostly French and British. Kobani’s preference seems to be that they be Americans. Saying that Trump has promised to protect the Kurds, he says he expects the president to “live up to his word,” and as far as he is concerned, that means continuing the US military presence indefinitely.

Egypt Government Executes 9 Muslim Brotherhood Members In Single Day — “We were electrocuted with enough electricity to last Egypt for 20 years,” one man yelled during his final words before an Egyptian court. Mahmoud al-Ahmadi was among 9 suspected Muslim Brotherhood members sentenced to death for involvement in the assassination of Egypt’s top prosecutor Hisham Barakat on June 29, 2015. The men were executed by hanging in a Cairo prison on Wednesday, which drew condemnation from groups like Amnesty International, given widespread reports that their confessions were obtained through torture. Barakat had been targeted and killed by car bomb when his convoy drove through the Egyptian capital in 2015, two years after General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi removed the Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi in a military junta following the chaotic Arab Spring protests. Only two weeks into November, this brings the total number of executions in Egypt thus far this year to 15. Maya Foa, director of an international body of lawyers who spotlight human rights abuses called Reprieve, told Al Jazeera, “As these latest executions show, President [Abdel Fattah] el-Sisi’s use of the death penalty is now a full-blown human rights crisis.” The Sisi government has increasingly come under fire for its broad use of the death penalty following confessions obtained under duress, as well as mass trials. Reprieve says some nearly 1,500 individuals remain on death row, among them juveniles.

‘There are no foreigners left’: Israeli settlers rampage in Hebron following expulsion of human rights observers Dozens of Israeli settlers launched an attack on Palestinians in the Old City of Hebron in the southern occupied West Bank on Tuesday night, yelling “death to Arabs!” in the street and hurling rocks at Palestinian homes. According to locals, more than 100 settlers accompanied by over 70 armed Israeli forces began marching down Shuhada street at 9pm in the Old City, heading towards the Palestinian neighborhood of Tel Rumeida. “They were chanting anti-Arab slogans, calling for the expulsion of all Palestinians from the area, saying this is the land of Israel, and saying we should all die,” Badee Dweik, 46, Co-Founder of the Human Rights Defenders group in Hebron told Mondoweiss. According to Dweik, who witnessed the events, settlers began harassing and throwing stones at any Palestinians who were walking outside. Shortly after, the settlers began hurling rocks at the windows of Palestinian homes. “Here in the Old City we are used to such attacks, so the Palestinians all have bars on their windows so that the settlers can’t break through,” Dweik said. He added that no one was badly injured, but several people sustained bruises on their faces and bodies from being physically assaulted by the settlers. Dweik said he believes that the attack was a direct result of the lack of presence of international volunteers and observers in the area. “The settlers, who are already extremely violent, are becoming more and more aggressive since the Israeli government decided to expel the TIPH mission in Hebron,” he said. “Getting rid of TIPH was a greenlight for settlers to be more violent, not just against Palestinians,but also against any internationals that they see here.”

Future rabbis plant with Palestinians, sow rift with Israel (AP) – Young American rabbinical students are doing more than visiting holy sites, learning Hebrew and poring over religious texts during their year abroad in Israel. In a stark departure from past programs focused on strengthening ties with Israel and Judaism, the new crop of rabbinical students is reaching out to the Palestinians. The change reflects a divide between Israeli and American Jews that appears to be widening. On a recent winter morning, Tyler Dratch, a 26-year-old rabbinical student at Hebrew College in Boston, was among some two dozen Jewish students planting olive trees in the Palestinian village of At-Tuwani in the southern West Bank. The only Jews that locals typically see are either Israeli soldiers or ultranationalist settlers. “Before coming here and doing this, I couldn’t speak intelligently about Israel,” Dratch said. “We’re saying that we can take the same religion settlers use to commit violence in order to commit justice, to make peace.” Dratch, not wanting to be mistaken for a settler, covered his Jewish skullcap with a baseball cap. He followed the group down a rocky slope to see marks that villagers say settlers left last month: “Death to Arabs” and “Revenge” spray-painted in Hebrew on boulders and several uprooted olive trees, their stems severed from clumps of dirt. This year’s student program also includes a tour of the flashpoint West Bank city of Hebron, a visit to an Israeli military court that prosecutes Palestinians and a meeting with an activist from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, which is blockaded by Israel.

Political Bombshell as Gantz, Lapid Join Forces to Replace Netanyahu –Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s two biggest rivals on the center-left announced early Thursday morning that they have decided to join forces and merge their parties, causing a political shakeup ahead of elections.

• â–  Joint slate will be named ‘Blue and White.’ Gantz will be prime minister for two and a half years before handing over reins to Lapid, who would serve as FM
• â–  Ex- IDF chief Gabi Ashkenazi joins unified roster
• â–  Likud blasts union: ‘It’s either their left-wing gov’t or us’

Chinese president meets Iran’s parliament speaker – (Xinhua) — Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday met with visiting Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.No matter how the international and regional situation changes, China’s resolve to develop a comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran will remain unchanged, Xi said during the meeting, hailing that China and Iran have a long history of friendship and share long-tested mutual trust and friendship.Under the new situation, China and Iran should further deepen strategic mutual trust and continue to extend mutual understanding and support on issues involving each other’s core interests and major concerns, said Xi.The Chinese president called on both sides to step up communication and coordination, meet each other halfway to properly advance their pragmatic cooperation, and strengthen exchanges and cooperation in such areas as security, countering terrorism and culture.Xi called for closer collaboration and coordination within multilateral frameworks, so as to jointly promote the building of a new type of international relations and foster a community with a shared future for humanity.Exchanges between legislative bodies of the two countries are an important part of the comprehensive strategic partnership, Xi said, calling on the National People’s Congress of China and Iranian Parliament to strengthen exchanges and cooperation, learn from each other’s experience in state governance, cement communication and coordination in international and regional organizations, and play a bigger role in promoting bilateral relations.

China Sticks Up For Iran As Geopolitical Pressure Mounts – Amid the geopolitical quagmire among Iran, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. over a number of issues ranging from Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, its ballistic missile program and its regional hegemony overtures which have Riyadh scrambling for a response, China is joining the fray. Yesterday, Chinese PresidentAmid the geopolitical quagmire among Iran, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. over a number of issues ranging from Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, its ballistic missile program and its regional hegemony overtures which have Riyadh scrambling for a response, China is joining the fray.Yesterday, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the speaker of Iran’s parliament that China’s desire to develop close ties with Iran will remain unchanged, regardless of the international situation. Xi’s remarks came just one day before the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to China to drum up support since several western powers have taken a harder line against the young prince over his alleged involvement in the killing of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.Xi met Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani on Wednesday and added that the two countries had a long friendship and shared a long-tested mutual trust. “No matter how the international and regional situation changes, China’s resolve to develop a comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran will remain unchanged,” Xi was quoted a saying in comments published the next day by China’s Foreign Ministry. China and Iran should further deepen strategic mutual trust and continue to support each other on core interests and major concerns, Xi added. Beijing is able to court both Iran and Saudi Arabia at the same, something the U.S. is unable to do. China, however, prides itself on not taking sides in domestic politics of other nations, even if those nations have a dismal human rights history.

Relatives of China’s oppressed Muslim minority are getting blocked online by their own family members, who are terrified to even tell them how bad their lives are – Abdul’ehed, a teacher and poet in Istanbul, Turkey, has been systematically cut off by all her family members on WeChat, the ubiquitous Chinese messaging app. There is only one reason for her entire family – who live in Xinjiang, western China – to cease all contact so abruptly: fear. Her family are Uighurs, a majority-Muslim ethnic minority group China has been relentlessly persecuting. Life in Xinjiang has effectively come to a standstill over the last two years. According to the US State Department, China has detained up to 2 million Uighur residents, for increasingly flimsy reasons, one of which is messaging people who live in other countries. China’s unprecedented crackdown is why Abdul’ehed’s relatives in China deleted her from their contacts, leaving her unable to talk to them or even see their latest pictures. INSIDER interviewed four members of the Uighur diaspora, who report a similar experience of being abruptly cut off by those they love most, for fear of retribution by the heavy-handed Xinjiang regional government. Most people in Xinjiang have either blocked their contacts abroad or are too scared to talk to them. Reports from activists and media outlets claim that Uighurs who cross the authorities are physically tortured, forced to renounce their religion, and force-fed unknown medications that interfere with their memories. Abdul’ehed’s said: “At first I was so hurt. I thought: ‘They didn’t have to do that.’ After that, I understood that something serious was going on.” “I’m glad they deleted me,” she said. “Because I, somehow, may be a reason for authorities to arrest them.” Local authorities in Xinjiang don’t officially notify relatives abroad when they round people up. And because most people in Xinjiang have either blocked all their contacts abroad, or are scared to talk about what’s going on, they are struggling to find out about their loves ones.

.