Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 17 May 2018
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Asian shares close mixed as US yields edge higher; trade talks in focus (CNBC) Asian stocks closed narrowly mixed on Thursday as the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury stayed above 3%. Investors also kept an eye on the second round of U.S.-China trade talks. The dollar index was steady at 93.320. U.S. crude futures rose 0.27% to trade at $71.68 per barrel and Brent crude futures added 0.16% to trade at $79.41. Spot gold had risen 0.25% to $1,293.43 per ounce by 0255 GMT, after marking its lowest since Dec. 27 in the previous session at $1,286.20. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were 0.1% higher at $1,292.80 per ounce.
- Emerging Markets Still on Upswing (The Daily Shot) Despite the recent market rout, most EM economies are still in growth mode.
U.S.
- GOP has few takers for 2020 convention (The Hill) Cities across the country are turning down the opportunity to host the 2020 Republican National Convention, where President Trump is expected to be nominated for a second term. The cities that have rejected hosting duties insist Trump and today’s divisive politics are not factors in their decisions. They instead cite high security costs and disruptions in the normal flow of business and traffic. But Trump is almost certainly a factor in some cities’ decisions to opt out. Evan Siegfried, a New York-based Republican strategist said:
“Most of the cities that have turned down the RNC are Democratic cities.”
- Congress votes to repeal an agency guidance document for the first time (BallotPedia) The U.S. House of Representatives passed a Congressional Review Act(CRA) resolution to overturn an agency guidance document. The U.S. Senate had already approved the measure the previous month. The resolution addresses a guidance document issued in 2013 by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a federal agency that regulates financial institutions. The document advised indirect auto lenders on how to comply with some of the laws and regulations administered by the CFPB.[1][2]
If President Donald Trump (R) signs the resolution into law, the bulletin will become invalid, and the CFPB will not be able to issue similar requirements in the future. It would also be the first time that the CRA was used to overturn a guidance document rather than a rule issued through the rulemaking procedures of the Administrative Procedure Act. As of May 10, 2018, Trump had not taken action on the resolution. He is expected to sign it.[1][2]
- Giuliani says Mueller has informed him that Trump cannot be indicted (The Hill) Special counsel Robert Mueller’s team told President Trump’s legal team that they can’t indict a sitting president, CNN reported Wednesday. Rudy Giuliani, who is leading Trump’s legal team in the Russia probe, told the network that when it comes to the president, Mueller’s team can only write a report at the conclusion of its investigation. Such a report could outline wrongdoing or include recommendations for the House. Econintersect: This is not ‘fake news’ – it is ‘no news’. It is well known that a sitting president cannot be indicted.
- Exclusive: how rightwing groups wield secret ‘toolkit’ to plot against US unions (The Guardian) Rightwing activists are launching a nationwide drive to persuade public-sector trade union members to tear up their membership cards and stop paying dues, posing a direct threat to the progressive movement in America.
Documents obtained by the Guardian reveal that a network of radical conservative thinktanks spanning all 50 states is planning direct marketing campaigns targeted personally at union members to encourage them to quit. The secret push, the group hopes, could cost unions up to a fifth of their 7 million members, lead to the loss of millions of dollars in income and undermine a cornerstone of US progressive politics.
- Giuliani says FBI may have placed spy in Trump campaign (The Hill) President Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani suggested on Wednesday that the FBI may have placed a spy in Trump’s presidential campaign. In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday night, Giuliani told host Laura Ingraham “I don’t know,” when asked if there was a spy in the 2016 campaign. Giuliani, however, resurfaced the concept later on when discussing what he said were instances of misconduct. Giuliani said:
“What they did with Manafort, what they did with Michael Cohen, all the illegitimate things they’ve done – possibly placing a spy in the Trump campaign.” Special counsel Robert Mueller has subpoenaed a social media specialist who previously worked for Trump campaign adviser Roger Stone, according to a report.
- President Trump released his financial disclosure filing Wednesday which says that Trump “fully reimbursed” his lawyer Michael Cohen.
- Cohen is known for paying porn star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in hush money to silence her about an alleged affair with Trump.
- The filing gives conflicting accounts about the reason for the payment: Was it a liability or an expense?
- The answer could have serious legal ramifications.
- Mueller issues grand jury subpoenas to Trump adviser’s social media consultant (Reuters) U.S. Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Mueller has issued two subpoenas to a social media expert, Jason Sullivan, who worked for longtime Donald Trump adviser Roger Stone during the 2016 presidential election campaign.
The subpoenas suggest that Mueller, who is probing Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, is focusing in part on Stone and whether he might have had advance knowledge of material allegedly hacked by Russian intelligence and sent to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who published it.
- Inflation Seen Rising Next Year (The Daily Shot) Economists continue to forecast higher inflation next year, with the core PCE index climbing above the 2% level.
Iran
- Iraq’s shock election result may be turning point for Iran (The Guardian) The unexpectedly poor showing of Haider al-Abadi, Iraq’s prime minister, in parliamentary elections has dealt a blow to US influence in the country. It was a poor return for American backing for the Baghdad government’s drive to extirpate Islamic State and regain lost territory.
But the bigger loser may be Iran, whose allies in Iraq’s Shia militias known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces were pushed into second place by Moqtada al-Sadr, the veteran nationalist. Put simply, Sadr believes Iraqis should run Iraqi affairs – not Washington, not Tehran and not their proxies.
India
- Indian Minister of State for External Affairs VK Singh arrived in Pyongyang this week in the first high-level visit from the Asian giant to the rogue state in nearly two decades.
- “Now that the environment around North Korea is changing, India may feel like it’s an opportune moment to reach out, perhaps in potential anticipation of the country opening up,” said Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation.
Japan
- The government is preparing to notify the World Trade Organization of the plan, a necessary procedure under global trade rules, this week, NHK said.
- Japan is the only major U.S. ally that did not receive exemptions from Trump’s tariff decision, which came as a shock given Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s close ties with the president.
China
- ‘It’s already a problem, not a benefit’: Chinese ambassador to US says cutting trade imbalance is in China’s interest too (South China Morning Post) China’s top envoy to the United States said on Friday that he supports negotiations aimed at reducing a US-China trade imbalance, and that it is likely to be successful, striking an optimistic note as officials from both sides met to discuss the issue – and help mend the countries’ ties – in Washington. Ambassador Cui Tiankai said in a discussion with former US defence secretary William Cohen at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington:
“A huge deficit for you and a huge surplus for us – I don’t think this should continue. I don’t think it will continue. For us, such an imbalance is already a problem rather than a benefit. We need to make more efforts to achieve some kind of a balance in our trade relationship. I’m quite confident that if we have a balanced approach, we can find a solution.”
- Why China may pay a high price for cutting the trade gap with the US (South China Morning Post) A key pillar of China’s economic boom is crumbling away, a change that analysts believe could make it harder for Beijing to accede to America’s demands to slash the trade gap between the two countries. China’s current account for the first three months of the year recorded the first quarterly deficit in 17 years and the country is now facing the possibility that it will see its first full-year deficit since 1994 – a process that could be accelerated by Washington’s demands.
Customs figures for the first four months of the year show that China’s trade surplus with the US exceeded the country’s overall surplus: in other words, China would be in deficit without its gains from the US.
