Written by Econintersect
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Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary “reading list” which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for “reading list” items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
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Topics today include:
How Fake News Spreads
Diverging U.S. GDP Forecasts
If All the World Population Lived in One City
There is No Stopping Globalization
Global Government Bond Rally Continues
How Trump Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the (Climate) Bomb
Yes, Democrats Won a Big Health Care Battle, But the Health Care War Is Far From Over
Fading Trump rally threatened by rare contraction of US credit
The New Religious Left
In Republicans’ views of a border wall, proximity to Mexico matters
EU’s chief negotiator admits Europe will face ‘severe consequences’ from hard Brexit
Theresa May Cut Short Nicola Sturgeon’s Attempt to Talk About a Scottish Referendum
Trump son-in-law met with U.S. sanctioned Russian bank; will testify
China Debt Remains an Emerging Markets Outlier
Positive GDP Outlook for First Quarter in Canada
And More
Articles about events, conflicts and disease around the world
Global
There’s No Stopping Globalization (The Dismal Optimist) Investment strategist and money manager Peter T. Treadway explains why globalization may face only temporary headwinds:
Globalization is a product of accelerating technology and in turn a contributor to accelerating technology. Short of a major war or a big meteorite hitting the earth, it can’t be stopped. Technology, according to futurologist Ray Kurzweil among others, is accelerating at an accelerating rate and is part of an unstoppable evolutionary process. I think Kurzweil has offered a pretty good description of reality.
The “bad” Trump, reinforced by his Rasputin-like economic nationalist advisors Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro, is promising to stand Canute-like in the face of an ever more powerful technology-driven tide of human evolution. In the short run, the more successful he is at implementing his announced anti-globalization goals, the more he will hurt the US and world economies. In the long run, Trump will be gone and technology and globalization will continue to accelerate.
Global Rally in Government Bonds Continues (Twitter) The U.S. 10-year yield drops to 2.35%, confounding bond bears.
U.S.
How Trump Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the (Climate) Bomb (Foreign Policy)
President Donald Trump is poised to eviscerate his predecessor’s legacy on climate change with executive actions as early as this week, even though the world is throwing up increasingly alarming signs of dangerous warning and key parts of the administration keep flagging climate change as a key national security challenge.
Trump will reportedly instruct Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt to scrap and redo a landmark batch of regulations known as the Clean Power Plan, a hallmark initiative of former President Barack Obama that would have helped curb U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases. According to the New York Times, which obtained a draft document of the order, Trump will also outline ways to block or cripple “about a half dozen” other climate-related executive orders from the previous administration.
Yes, Democrats Won a Big Health Care Battle, But the Health Care War Is Far From Over (The Daily Beast) This is a former Democratic senate staffer who says that it is obvious that neither President Trump nor House Republicans know yet how to effectively govern. But they’ll learn:
This was not a real effort to repeal ACA. It was a ham-handed first attempt that will cause some humiliation, but it doesn’t mean Republicans won’t get their collective heads out of their you-know-what and try again.
Fading Trump rally threatened by rare contraction of US credit (The Telegraph) Hat tip to Patrick Watson. Credit strategists are increasingly disturbed by a sudden and rare contraction of US bank lending, fearing a synchronised slowdown in the U.S. and China this year that could catch euphoric markets badly off guard. Data from the US Federal Reserve shows that the $2 trillion market for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans peaked in December. The sector has weakened abruptly as lenders tighten credit, especially for non-residential property. Over the last three months it has dropped at a rate of 5.4% on annual basis, a pace of decline not seen since December 2008. See first graphic below. The deterioration in the broader $9 trillion market for loans and leases has been less dramatic but it too is shrinking, falling at a 1.6% rate on a three-month basis. See second graphic below.
‘Religious left’ emerging as U.S. political force in Trump era (Reuters) Since President Donald Trump’s election, monthly lectures on social justice at the 600-seat Gothic chapel of New York’s Union Theological Seminary have been filled to capacity with crowds three times what they usually draw. In January, the 181-year-old Upper Manhattan graduate school, whose architecture evokes London’s Westminster Abbey, turned away about 1,000 people from a lecture on mass incarceration. In the nine years that Reverend Serene Jones has served as its president, she has never seen such crowds. She said:
“The election of Trump has been a clarion call to progressives in the Protestant and Catholic churches in America to move out of a place of primarily professing progressive policies to really taking action.”
In Republicans’ views of a border wall, proximity to Mexico matters (Pew Research Center) For the GOP, absence (distance) makes the heart grow less fonder (of the wall). For everyone elks, not so much.
EU
Europe will face ‘severe consequences’ from hard Brexit, EU’s chief negotiator admits (The Telegraph) The European Union and the UK will face “severe consequences” if Britain leaves without a deal, Europe’s chief Brexit negotiator has admitted. Theresa May, the Prime Minister, has said repeatedly that “no deal” is better than a “bad deal” and said that the UK is prepared to walk away from the EU if necessary. On Wednesday she will trigger Article 50 and begin the formal process of leaving the union. Michel Barnier, writing in the Financial Times, said he wants an “orderly withdrawal” and hopes for an “ambitious free trade agreement” after Brexit.
UK
Theresa May only allowed Nicola Sturgeon to speak ‘briefly’ about second referendum before shutting her down (The Telegraph) It was her big chance to tackle the Prime Minister over Scottish independence, but Nicola Sturgeon was only “briefly” allowed to mention a second referendum before she was shut down by Theresa May, it has been claimed.
The Prime Minister is understood to have dictated terms during their meeting in a Glasgow hotel, running down the clock by talking about Article 50 and a policing exercise before Ms Sturgeon tried to grab her chance at the end of their talk.
But sources made it clear that there was no “substantive” discussion of a referendum because Mrs May had already reiterated her position that “now is not the time”.
Russia
Trump son-in-law met with U.S. sanctioned Russian bank; will testify (Reuters) A Russian bank under U.S. economic sanctions over Russia’s incursion into Ukraine disclosed on Monday that its executives had met Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and a top White House adviser, during the 2016 election campaign.
China
China Remains an Emerging Markets Outlier (Walter Kurtz, Sober Look, The Daily Shot)
Canada
Positive GDP Outlook for First Quarter in Canada (Walter Kurtz, Sober Look, The Daily Shot)
Other Scientific, Health, Political, Economics, and Business Items of Note – plus Miscellanea
60 Minutes” tracks how fake news spreads (The Hill) Automated bots create the illusion of popularity for “news stories” that are simple fabrications. This is done for various reasons, but the two most common are profit and political. The following is a “60 Minutes” segment reporting on the spreading processes for fake news:
Diverging U.S. GDP Forecasts (Walter Kurtz, Sober Look, The Daily Shot) The link in the graphic is WSJ podcast.
If the world’s population lived in one city… (Per Square Mile) Hat tip to @ninjaeconomics.
