Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 09 March 2017
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
Global
Asian equities mostly lower, China producer inflation jumps to fastest since 2008 (CNBC) Asian equities finished in negative territory on Thursday after China’s inflation data painted a mixed picture. The dollar index was trading at 102.20 during Asian time, above the levels around 101 for the past four sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude steadied to climb 0.64% to $50.60 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude rose 0.83% to $53.55. Oil had dropped 5% Wednesday in New York trading. Gold prices inched down to the lowest level in five weeks. Spot gold was barely changed at $1,207.38 per ounce at 0325 GMT after touching $1,205.50.
U.S.
Sens. Graham and Whitehouse demand proof of Trump’s claim that Obama wiretapped him (USA Today) President Trump accused former president Barack Obama of wiretapping Trump Tower during the campaign over the weekend, and now Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., are asking the Justice Department to prove it. The bipartisan pair – who are chairman and ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Terrorism – sent a letter Wednesday to the FBI director and the acting deputy attorney general asking for specific information regarding the accusation.
The Republican Plan Is Even Worse Than Obamacare (Bloomberg) Conservative columnist Megan McCardle is not enamored of the GOP Healthcare Bill. She says it solves only one problem and vreates others: What is solved is:
… the problem of Republican legislators who want to tell their base that they repealed Obamacare, just like they promised. Tada!
That Radical Obama Wasn’t So Awful for Markets (Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg View)
Maybe you were one of those who nodded in agreement with a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Republican economist Michael Boskin, which also is celebrating an eight-year anniversary this week. The headline, which couldn’t have been more off-base, said it all: “Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Dow.” In the meantime, the S&P 500 increased 232 percent from the time Boskin’s op-ed appeared to the day Obama left office.
This is another cautionary tale of how dangerous it is to confuse your own partisan politics with objective market analysis. Boskin’s contra-indicator warning was almost perfect and just three days later the S&P 500 touched bottom before taking off on one of the longest runs in years.
Boskin’s op-ed touches upon many of our favorite themes: The false narrative; the emotional confusion that occurs when investing advice is seasoned by ideological beliefs; confusing correlation with causation; and the problem of ministers without portfolios (pundits with no skin in the game).
ACA Repeal-Replace Bill Troubles Organized Medicine (Medscape) Major medical societies such as the American Medical Association (AMA) worry that a House bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will translate into fewer people with health coverage and the care they need. Their objections to the bill, dubbed the American Health Care Act (AHCA), center on two key elements. They say that the bill’s new tax credits for buying a private plan are less generous than those under the ACA, particularly for low-income Americans, a claim supported by a recent Kaiser Family Foundation analysis. They also are troubled by major changes to Medicaid – namely, a per-capita cap on the federal contribution to state programs, which could leave them underfunded, and a rollback of expanded eligibility in 31 states and the extra federal dollars that come with it. AMA CEO James Madara, MD, wrote members of Congress yesterday:
“While we agree that there are problems with the ACA that must be addressed, we cannot support the AHCA as drafted because of the expected decline in health insurance coverage and the potential harm it would cause to vulnerable patient populations.”
How the U.S. Health-Care System Wastes $750 Billion Annually (The Atlantic) The massive annual waste is the takeaway from a 2012 report by the Institute of Medicine (IOM), which estimates that the country loses some $750 billion annually to medical fraud, inefficiencies, and other siphons in the health-care system. In comparison, the Defense Department budgeted $757.8 billion for the war in Iraq over the eight years it was there. See also Trump, Ryan, and Price: Can They Make the Healthcare Numbers Add Up? (GEI ANALYSIS)
Newly identified fault line in California could unleash monster earthquake (USA Today) Scientists uncovered a newly identified fault line that could unleash a magnitude-7.4 earthquake in the region, which other researchers say is already long overdue for a whopper of a temblor along the infamous San Andreas fault. The concerns are detailed in separate studies that put the quake risks of the USA’s most populous state into much sharper focus. The newly identified fault line is capable of a powerful quake that would impact 20 million residents of Los Angeles and San Diego, according to a study published Tuesday. The fault runs underwater from San Diego Bay to Seal Beach in Orange County and on land through the Los Angeles basin, researchers found.
UK
UK budget 2017: why upcoming Brexit uncertainty will put bright economic outlook to the test (The Conversation) See next item.
Philip Hammond has delivered his first budget since taking over the role of chancellor of the exchequer after the UK’s Brexit vote put paid to his predecessor, George Osborne. He has unveiled a brighter outlook for economic growth, with an upgraded forecast for growth in 2017 from the Office for Budget Responsibility. He spoke of job creation and wage growth. And, with public finances in better shape than expected, he was also able to report lower borrowing forecasts than in his Autumn Statement.
But recent history shows us why we should not be so confident about all these healthy forecasts. A look at the recent history of economic forecasting makes the upgraded expectations of 2% growth in 2017 questionable. Then there’s the fact that Brexit hasn’t happened yet. With Article 50 soon to be triggered, the uncertainty that harms economies the most will only get worse in the months to come.
Russia
Russia: The Conspiracy Trap (The New York Review of Books) The author argues that the Russia-Trump connection story is a false flag, diverting attention from more serious issues on which we should be focussed. See also Debunking the Trump-Putin conspiracy stories (Fabius Maximus)
China
Why Is China So … Uncool? (Foreign Policy) There’s been much talk in recent weeks about China’s potential role as world leader, during a time when Trump’s America is erecting walls. China has nearly all the characteristics to lead effectively, with its willingness to engage in global trade and its promises to fight climate change, all backed by its economic and military gravitas. Despite all this, China still isn’t beloved abroad, at least not to the extent that America is. China’s music, movies, and fashions are relatively unpopular. Put another way, China is not seen as cool; its pop culture and pop stars lack global swagger. The question is why, and whether that matters.
China’s Confusing Inflation Data (Twitter)
Australia
DNA reveals Aboriginal people had a long and settled connection to country (The Conversation) Aboriginal people stayed settled in places across Australia for 50,000 years until Europeans arrived, showing a strong connection with the land.
