Arab Spring, Four Years Later

Written by Frank Li

This post was triggered by two recent news stories about the Middle East:

1. Today, Tunisia Is Tested.
2. Yemen crisis: More than 100 die in attacks on Sanaa mosques.

Because both countries are closely tied to it, let’s review the Arab Spring, four years later …

1. What is the Arab Spring?

Here is an excerpt from Wikipedia – Arab Spring:

The Arab Spring (Arabic: الربيع العربي‎, ar-rabīˁ al-ˁarabī) was a revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests (both non-violent and violent), riots, and civil wars in the Arab world that began on 18 December 2010, and spread throughout the countries of the Arab League and its surroundings. While the wave of initial revolutions and protests had ended by mid-2012, some refer to the ongoing large-scale conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa as a continuation of the Arab Spring, while others refer to the aftermath of revolutions and civil wars post mid-2012 as the Arab Winter.

2. How was it started?

Many factors, including the Iraq War! However, there is no doubt that President Obama decisively incited it with President Obama Speech to Muslim World in Cairo (2009).

In short, although the failings of democracy are becoming painfully obvious at home, America has been recklessly exporting it to the Middle East for at least the past one and a half decades, even by force (e.g. Iraq).

3. How is democracy doing in the Middle East?

It has failed or is failing in each and every instance! Specifically, let’s look at three examples which were the direct results of the Arab Spring:

1. Egypt
2. Tunisia
3. Yemen.

3.1 Egypt

Democracy was a brief, but disastrous, experiment in Egypt! Egypt is now back to a dictatorship, with President Sisi firmly in charge. For more, read: Sisi vs. ISIS: Dictatorship vs. Mob Rule.

3.2 Tunisia

Here is the subtitle of the news story cited earlier (Today, Tunisia Is Tested):

“Can the country that has been the Arab Spring’s success story maintain national unity and avoid repression after today’s deadly attack?”

My simple and straightforward answer is a resounding “no!” Why not? Because there has not been a single example of success for a 3rd-world country to achieve prosperity via democracy without robust capitalism first! Tunisia will be no exception!

3.3 Yemen

Here is another recent story about Yemen: Yemen’s road to democracy uncertain after UN truce. Below is an excerpt:

Yemen’s survival as a democracy faces real political challenges, despite the last-minute UN-brokered truce between the government and Shia Houthi rebels, says BBC Arabic’s Mai Noman in the capital Sanaa.

Regardless of Yemen’s status on democracy, Yemen has obviously become the biggest safe haven for Al-Qaeda. Here is a recent news story: Pentagon ‘loses track’ of $500M Weapons in Yemen. Below is an excerpt:

The ongoing unrest that forced the United States to close its embassy in Sanaa, Yemen, last month also has caused Pentagon officials to admit that they’ve lost track of $500 million in military equipment, including helicopters, Humvees and ammunition, that it donated to the country, The Washington Post reports.

Now, add ISIS (Yemen crisis: Islamic State claims Sanaa mosque attacks) on top of Al-Qaeda …

4. Discussion

Beyond the three countries discussed above, it’s actually chaos everywhere in that region, such as Libya and Syria.

Why so much chaos? On top of its historical problems, the region is facing a new obstacle: democracy!

Throughout human history, democracy has been a tried but failed doctrine dating back to Ancient Greece over 2,000 years ago! Yet, it has been religiously worshipped in the West over the past two centuries as a “new” experiment.

Democracy has temporarily succeeded in the West for two main reasons:

1. Capitalism: It has succeeded widely in the West, allowing many other things, including democracy, to ride on its back. For more, read: Pyramid Theory I, Version 3.
2. Communism: It has proven to be even worse than democracy, making the East lose the Cold War to the West!

The West has been in a steep decline over the past decade for three main reasons:

1. Capitalism is being usurped by Democratic Socialism in the West.
2. Capitalism has successfully spread beyond the West, resulting in the rise of BRICS, led by China, as viable economic competitors to the West.
3. State capitalism, a truly new form of government into which China has transformed itself from deadly communism, appears to be, for China at least, slightly better than any democracy. For more, read: Towards an Ideal Form of Government.

For those Americans who are religiously obsessed with democracy, here is an analogy: saying democracy works today is like saying “communism works” in 1960. Yes, communism was working then, but eventually collapsed. Democracy will collapse too, unless my advice is adopted. For more, read: Longevity: American Democracy vs. Soviet Communism.

America must immediately stop exporting democracy for one simple reason: democracy is already on life-support at home! In other words, America must save itself first before further attempting to save the world! For more, read my book: “Saving America, Chinese Style”!

5. Closing

The Arab Spring, precipitated by President Obama, has proven to be a total disaster for the Middle East.

For most of the countries in the Middle East, the example for prosperity to emulate is China, not America! For more, read: The Role of Government.