Closing Market Commentary For 01-12-2015
The afternoon session mostly traded sideways as the oils did likewise. The oils have been quiet, but WTI has hit new lows (45.87) and oil benchmarks are expected to fall further. Gold melted up to 1235, highest in a month.
By 4 pm the averages looked weak and any recoup of recent losses is entirely in the ‘hands’ of the oil gods and a few lawless screw-balls on Wall Street. The markets want to go up, but will they?
Fourth quarter financials are starting to come in and according to MarketWatch. Com:
Alcoa Q4 adj. EPS 33 cents vs. FactSet consensus 28 cents
Alcoa Q4 sales up 14% to $6.4 bln; FactSet consensus $6.04 bln
Alcoa Q4 net EPS 11 cents vs. loss $2.19/share a year ago
Alcoa sees 2015 global aluminum demand growth of 7% vs. 7% growth in 2014
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the midday and the session market direction meter is 100+ % bearish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains below zero at -1.09. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a ‘long-term’ reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 45 % Bearish. (Really? This should be interesting to see how it turns out.)
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +0.56. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 49.73 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20’s.
Many indicators are showing markets leveling off or rounding indicating market softness that could lead to lower values and investor’s should watch carefully. The SP500 MACD, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, $TNX and the $NYA all show rounding off the tops which in the past has lead to a downturn.
Also, the SP500 10 DMA has crossed over the 20 DMA (12-11-14) always indicating a ‘correction’ underway. The 50,100, 145 and 200 DMA are all going flat which is never a good omen for a continuing bull run. Watch for the 50 DMA to cross over the 100,145 and 200 DMA to indicate how deep the correction will be.
These are not ‘leading’ indicators as such, but depicting ‘trends’ in the making showing data accumulated over the past several months, but needs to be watched.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 19.12. (Chart Here) 10-year Treasury yield drops below 2% for first time in 7 months
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,643. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
<p style=”margin-bottom: 0in;”><span style=”font-family: Arial,sans-serif;”><span style=”font-size: medium;”><strong><span style=”color: #000000;”><span style=”font-weight: normal;”><strong>If you want to receive occasional Trader Alert ‘Tweets’ click here:</strong> <a href=”https://twitter.com/Econ_Markets”><img src=”/images/2014/10/38080039Screenshot-11_10_2014,11_20_49AM.png” alt=”” /></a></span></span></strong></span></span></p>
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17641 down 97 or -0.54%. (Historical High 18,103.45)
The SP500 is at 2028 down 17 or -0.81%. (Historical High 2,093.55)
SPY is at 202.69 down 1.69 or -0.83%.
The $RUT is at 1180 down 5.61 or -0.47%.
NASDAQ is at 4665 down 39 or -0.84%. (Historical High 5132.52)
NASDAQ 100 is at 4170 down 43 or -1.03%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 19.47 up 1.93 or 11.00%. Bearish to neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net negative, the past 5 sessions have been net positive and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 47.77 (resistance) and 45.86 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 45.86. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1217.92 earlier to 1235.98 and is currently trading down at 1233.50. The current intra-session trend is positive. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 2.721 fell from 2.759 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 92.52 (highest since 2005 and ~92 is a very substantial resistance with 92.53 representing a triple top) and 91.93 and is currently trading up at 92.22, the bias is currently in a neutral zone, but trending down. (Chart Here)
Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn’t likely to fall easily. The current level (~91 / 92) is the resistance (substantial) and could be a triple top of sorts. Historical chart Here.
<p><span style=”font-family: Arial,sans-serif;”><span style=”font-size: medium;”><strong>The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!</strong></span></span></p><blockquote><strong>”Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett</strong></blockquote><p><strong><span style=”color: #000000;”><span style=”font-family: Arial,sans-serif;”><span style=”font-size: medium;”><span style=”font-weight: normal;”>If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘</span></span></span></span></strong><strong><a rel=”nofollow” href=”https://twitter.com/Econ_Markets”><span style=”color: #000099;”><span style=”font-family: Arial,sans-serif;”><span style=”font-size: medium;”><strong>Follow</strong></span></span></span></a></strong><strong><span style=”color: #000000;”><span style=”font-family: Arial,sans-serif;”><span style=”font-size: medium;”><span style=”font-weight: normal;”>’ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.</span></span></span></span></strong></p><p><span style=”font-size: medium;”><strong>Real Time Market Numbers</strong></span></p><p><iframe src=”http://eqrates.investing.com/index.php?pairs_ids=277;347;6408;243;282;346;396;238;284;247;240;260;241;271;316;352;6974;7888;26490;8193;308;6369;280;301;251;8082;267;8177;287;272;252;334;8115;409;402;305;651;295;474;469;333;667;7997;7992;&header-text-color=%23FFFFFF&curr-name-color=%230059b0&inner-text-color=%23000000&green-text-color=%232A8215&green-background=%23B7F4C2&red-text-color=%23DC0001&red-background=%23FFE2E2&inner-border-color=%23CBCBCB&border-color=%23cbcbcb&bg1=%23F6F6F6&bg2=%23ffffff&last_update=hide” width=”600″ height=”960″ frameborder=”0″ scrolling=”no”></iframe></p><div style=”width: 559px;”><span><span style=”font-size: 11px;color: #333333;text-decoration: none;”>Leading Stock Quotes powered by <a class=”underline_link” style=”font-size: 11px;color: #06529D; font-weight: bold;” rel=”nofollow” href=”http://www.investing.com/” target=”_blank”>Investing.com</a></span></span></div><p><span style=”font-size: medium;”>To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:</span></p><p><span style=”font-size: medium;”><a name=”OBJ_PREFIX_DWT32″></a><a name=”OBJ_PREFIX_DWT211″></a> <strong><a rel=”nofollow” href=”mailto:[email protected]”>[email protected]</a></strong></span></p><p><strong><span style=”font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;”><span style=”font-size: medium;”>Written by <a rel=”nofollow” href=”/gary.htm”>Gary</a></span></span></strong></p>