Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 01-08-2015
Premarkets were up +0.8% even though the morning financials were ‘not-so-good’. The markets opened with a roar and climbed smartly to +1.5% in a matter of minutes as I mentioned they would on Tuesday.
By 10 am the averages were solidly in the green on ‘moderate’ volume and not as convincing as yesterday’s session. What is going to happen today?
The charts, tea leaves and gut feelings say this market may or may not reach its previous historic highs today, tomorrow or the next day. Most likely, if we are really in a corrective mode, the markets will start to slide in the next few sessions, but how far down depends on oil.
I know oil is going to drop more, I know that a ‘Grexit’ is a real possibility and I know that the EU is barely afloat and that leads me to believe we are NOT going to see new highs anytime soon.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the opening and the session market direction meter is 24 % bullish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains just above zero at +0.02. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a ‘long-term’ reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 50 % Bearish.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -8.82. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 47.74 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20’s.
Many indicators are showing markets leveling off or rounding indicating market softness that could lead to lower values and investor’s should watch carefully. The SP500 MACD, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, $TNX and the $NYA all show rounding off the tops which in the past has lead to a downturn.
Also, the SP500 10 DMA has crossed over the 20 DMA (12-11-14) always indicating a ‘correction’ underway. The 50,100, 145 and 200 DMA are all going flat which is never a good omen for a continuing bull run. Watch for the 50 DMA to cross over the 100,145 and 200 DMA to indicate how deep the correction will be.
These are not ‘leading’ indicators as such, but depicting ‘trends’ in the making showing data accumulated over the past several months, but needs to be watched.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 20.08. (Chart Here) 10-year Treasury yield drops below 2% for first time in 7 months
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,746. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
It is still possible that Mr. Market is not through playing with the averages and even newer historical highs are a distinct possibility. Historically, accordingly to Eric Parnell, “major bull markets have almost never reached their final peak in a sideways grinding pattern. Instead, they have almost always peaked with flourish including one final crescendo toward a new all-time high before finally rolling over and succumbing to the forces of the new bear market”.
A lot of notable analysts are starting to tout the prospect of bearish scenarios and should be paid attention to. But that does not mean to start shorting and general selling – not just now at least.
The longer 6 month outlook is now 40-60 sell and will remain somewhat bearish until we can see what the effects are from the oil slide, ECB and the U.S. Fed possibly triggering a deflationary slide. Investors should employ the first thing one learns while in a foxhole; keep their head down.
Bill Gross wrote recently that the “Good Times Are Over” may be a bit premature, because looking out a year ahead, there is no recession foreseen for the next 12 months. Mr. Gross goes on to say, “When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes,” Gross, 70, wrote in the outlook. “The good times are over.”
The DOW at 10:15 is at 17834 up 251 or 1.42%. (Historical High 18,103.45)
The SP500 is at 2054 up 28 or 1.38%. (Historical High 2,093.55)
SPY is at 205.11 up 3 or 1.38%.
The $RUT is at 1192 up 16 or 1.36%.
NASDAQ is at 4720 up 70 or 1.50%. (Historical High 5132.52)
NASDAQ 100 is at 4224 up 64 or 1.55%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 17.72 down 1.59 or -8.23%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net neutral, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 49.64 (resistance) and 48.25 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, trading sideways and is currently trading up at 49.02. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1204.90 earlier to 1216.42 and is currently trading up at 1215.50. The current intra-session trend is positive. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 2.768 falling from 2.793 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 92.75 (highest since 2005 and ~92 is a very substantial resistance with 92.53 representing a triple top) and 92.05 and is currently trading up at 92.57, the bias is currently elevated and trading sideways. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn’t likely to fall easily. The current level (~91 / 92) is the resistance (substantial) and could be a triple top of sorts. Historical chart Here.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘Follow‘ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.
Real Time Market Numbers
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary