Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 01-07-2015
The FMOC minutes brought forth a lot of volatility and price movement for the first few minutes and then the averages settled down and trading continued sideways as if nothing happened.
By 4 pm the U.S. Dollar, gold and the oils were off their sessions highs while the volume remained ‘moderate’. Jumping on the train leaving the station right now might be the wrong one – caution.
Even though the prospects for an up day tomorrow are very good, just remember that WTI oil, Greece and the EU are playing significant parts in the market.
Fox News reports: At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting board debated the importance of communicating how economic and financial data influence the committee’s policy decisions.
Also, how the addition of language describing the Fed as ‘patient’ toward normalizing policy would affect market sentiment. Members agreed policy shifts would be data-dependent, while noting economic activity was expanding moderately.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the session market direction meter is 55 % Bullish falling from 92 % Bullish this morning. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -0.55. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a ‘long-term’ reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 49 % Bearish. (Lately this has been a good forward indicator.)
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -38.93. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 46.30 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20’s.
Many indicators are showing markets leveling off or rounding indicating market softness that could lead to lower values and investor’s should watch carefully. The SP500 MACD, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, $TNX and the $NYA all show rounding off the tops which in the past has lead to a downturn.
Also, the SP500 10 DMA has crossed over the 20 DMA (12-11-14) always indicating a ‘correction’ underway. The 50,100, 145 and 200 DMA are all going flat which is never a good omen for a continuing bull run. Watch for the 50 DMA to cross over the 100,145 and 200 DMA to indicate how deep the correction will be.
These are not ‘leading’ indicators as such, but depicting ‘trends’ in the making showing data accumulated over the past several months, but needs to be watched.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 19.54. (Chart Here) 10-year Treasury yield drops below 2% for first time in 7 months
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,623. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17585 up 213 or 1.23%. (Historical High 18,103.45)
The SP500 is at 2026 up 23 or 1.16%. (Historical High 2,093.55)
SPY is at 202.37 up 2.49 or 1.25%.
The $RUT is at 1176 up 15 or 1.26%.
NASDAQ is at 4650 up 58 or 1.26%. (Historical High 5132.52)
NASDAQ 100 is at 4160 up 49 or 1.20%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 19.31 down 1.81 or -8.57%. Bullish to neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net neutral, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 49.31 (resistance) and 46.84 (support) today. The session bias is volatile, trending sideways and is currently trading up at 48.69. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1218.36 earlier to 1209.19 and is currently trading down at 1213.60. The current intra-session trend is neutral, but trending sideways. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 2.763 falling from 2.776 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 92.50 (highest since 2005 and ~92 is a very substantial resistance with 92.53 representing a triple top) and 91.90 and is currently trading down at 92.21, the bias is currently positive, but trending sideways. (Chart Here)
Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn’t likely to fall easily. The current level (~91 / 92) is the resistance (substantial) and could be a triple top of sorts. Historical chart Here.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary