Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 12-22-2014
Markets climbed to new session highs suggesting the Santa Claus rally may not over just yet. The DOW and SP500 closed at new closing highs and historical highs are just a stones throw away.
By 4 pm the averages climbed throughout the afternoon in a somewhat choppy session to highs not seen since December 5th. Volume was low, sometimes moderate, as investors seem to believe, or want to believe, the SC rally hasn’t rolled over yet.
Here is something to think about. If oil drop to $200 a barrel, I can guarantee there will be people jumping out of tall buildings.
“People should not be worried,” explained Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev in a TV address over the weekend, “we have a plan in place if oil prices are $40 per barrel.”
Kazakhstan, the second largest ex-Soviet oil producer after Russia, explains “there are reserves which could support people, preventing living conditions from worsening.”
However, if A. Gary Schilling’s reality check of $20 oil being possible comes to fruition, as he explains, what matters are marginal costs – the expense of retrieving oil once the holes have been drilled and pipelines laid.
That number is more like $10 to $20 a barrel in the Persian Gulf… We wonder who has a plan for that?
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the session market direction meter is very, very bearish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at +4.90. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a ‘long-term’ reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 65 % Bearish.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +16.67. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 51.51 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20’s.
Many indicators are showing markets leveling off or rounding indicating market softness that could lead to lower values and investor’s should watch carefully. The SP500 MACD, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, $TNX and the $NYA all show rounding off the tops which in the past has lead to a downturn.
Also, the SP500 10 DMA has crossed over the 20 DMA (12-11-14) always indicating a ‘correction’ underway. The 50,100, 145 and 200 DMA are all going flat which is never a good omen for a continuing bull run. Watch for the 50 DMA to cross over the 100,145 and 200 DMA to indicate how deep the correction will be.
These are not ‘leading’ indicators as such, but depicting ‘trends’ in the making showing data accumulated over the past several months, but needs to be watched.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 21.62. (Chart Here) Flattening Yield Curve Signaling Slowing Economic Growth?
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,921. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,109, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17959 up 155 or 0.87%. (Historical High 17,991.19)
The SP500 is at 2079 up 7.89 or 0.38%. (Historical High 2,079.47)
SPY is at 207.30 up 0.91 or 0.44%.
The $RUT is at 1202 up 6 or 0.49%.
NASDAQ is at 4781 up 16 or 0.34%. (Historical High 5132.52)
NASDAQ 100 is at 4294 up 12 or 0.28%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 15.25 down 1.24 or -7.52%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 58.51 (resistance) and 55.15 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 55.27. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1203.41 earlier to 1170.77 and is currently trading down at 1172.30. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 2.874 falling from 2.904 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 89.98 (highest since 2009 and 89.85 is a very substantial resistance) and 89.57 and is currently trading up at 89.95, the bias is currently trending up. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn’t likely to fall easily. The next resistance is at ~88.85 set in June, 2010.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary