Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 10-15-2014
Premarkets were down 0.7% this morning and plunged to over -1% after the highly important US Retail Sales Group fell to -0.2% from +0.4% and Advanced Retail Sales fell to -0.3% from +0.6%. Generally, all of this mornings financial reports were in the red pushing futures down. The DOW opened down 300 points (-1.8%), SP500 -1.6% and the $VIX +26.
By 10 am the high volume was falling off substantially, new supports remained intact and gold has pushed upwards and the US dollar rebounded off its major support.
Boy was I wrong about what was going to happen today, a bit premature I believe. So far, my spinning top candle 100% reversal prognosis from yesterday isn’t looking like it is going to be confirmed today. Guessing bottoms is NOT something one should partake in, my bad. The lesson here is to wait for confirmation and to cut your losses short, which I have done.
The good news is the volume is high and the BTFDers are in full swing and major supports have held, unfortunately there is more bad news than good news. This correction has turned out to be relatively robust surprising many investors and analysts, but the really big one is still a year away, at least.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards the sell to lighten portfolio of non-performers at the opening and the short-term market direction meter is neutral. We remain mostly, at best, negative and conservatively bullish. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have are now turning and that is still not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned the current downtrend will get more aggressive. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -27.04. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound. Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 35 % Bearish (falling from 70%) and it seems to be a good sign for being bearish. The ‘Sheeples’ always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 40.53. (Chart Here) Below support zone and apparently going further down. Next stop was ~57 and now it is ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are there and need a reversal pronto.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 19.33. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -44.34. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
Today it represents the lowest levels seen since the beginning of the October, 2011 rally. Eric Parnell says, ‘ If nothing else, given that relatively fewer stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average at a time when the market is just off of its all-time highs suggests that an increasingly narrowing group of stocks is driving the rally at this stage, which does not bode well for the future sustainability of the uptrend.” It also strongly suggests there has been a ‘stealth bear market’ underway in recent months.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 30.48 %. (Chart Here) Unless this downward trend reverses itself soon, we are going to see further downside. The next support is ~37.00 and ~25.00 below that.
The arrows in the chart below show levels that have acted as support and resistance since 2006. The two blue lines intersect near 10,301. As long as 10,301 holds, the odds of a rally taking place will be higher. If 10,301 fails to attract support from buyers, then the bullish push higher in early 2014 could be classified as a “failed breakout”, which would increase the odds of bad things happening in the weeks ahead.
As long as Institutional Investors are in a “Selling Up Trend”, the market has to much pressure on it and it goes down.
On September 4th, Institutional Investors started an up trend in their selling, so the stock market went down.
Yesterday, the trend lines on Institutional Selling were still trending up which meant that Institutional Investors were still selling. Note how the NYA Index is below its lower Bollinger Band … this is a level where the index is starting to act oversold.
The DOW at 10:00 is at 16165 down 148 or -0.89%.
The SP500 is at 1862 down 17 or -0.88%.
SPY is at 186.01 down 2 or -0.84%.
The $RUT is at 1059 down 2 or -0.23%.
NASDAQ is at 4197 down 30 or -0.72%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3780 down 31 or -0.81%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 25.27 up 2.48 or 10.88%. Bearish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is negative, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative.
Saudi Arabia has reportedly been telling oil-market investors and analysts that it is ready to accept oil prices below $90 per barrel, and even as low as $80, for up to a year or two. If true, it would represent a major change in policy for Riyadh, which may be looking to slow the expansion of rivals such as the U.S. Oil was -1.45% at $84.57 at the time of writing.
WTI oil is trading between 82.40 (resistance) and 79.99 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 82.29. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1222.24 earlier to 1249.94 and is currently trading down at 1240.10. The current intra-session trend is positive and volatile. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.040 falling from 3.084 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 86.12 and 84.52 and is currently trading up at 85.31, the bias is currently negative and trending upwards. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. Support was tested this morning and has rebounded.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary