Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 08-29-2014
HFT algo computer market manipulation at its best started at 3:35 on anemic volume pushing the SP500 up 3.64 points. Somedays this market is all smoke and mirrors, like today, as the Wall Street Marketeers set up the averages for the big short on Tuesday and shaft the ‘Sheeples’.
By 4 pm the averages all closed in the green ahead of the Labor Day Weekend. The SP500 marked an new historic closing high which I am sure will impress the ‘Sheeples’ out there.
The meaning of Labor Day has certainly changed recently, but I hope your weekend is a good one.
“Labor Day, the first Monday in September, is a creation of the labor movement and is dedicated to the social and economic achievements of American workers. It constitutes a yearly national tribute to the contributions workers have made to the strength, prosperity, and well-being of our country.”
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 12.90. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 55 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.43. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 26.82. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal in our near future.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further. This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 8-27-2014, XLY edged up to 69.03 and that is another notch in the gun signaling that we might have another reversal very soon – at least to cover the gap below. Protect thyself!
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17098 up 19 or 0.11%.
The SP500 is at 2003.37 up 6.63 or 0.33%.
SPY is at 200.56 up 0.57 or 0.28%.
The $RUT is at 1174 up 8.40 or 0.72%.
NASDAQ is at 4580 up 23 or 0.50%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4083 up 16 or 0.40%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.98 down 0.07 or -0.58%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is positive at the close.
WTI oil is trading between 95.99 (resistance) and 94.47 (support) today. The session bias is positive, sideways and is currently trading up at 95.89. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 60 minute time scale.)
Brent Crude is trading between 103.29 (resistance) and 102.63 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 103.10. (Chart Here)
Gold fell from 1292.21 earlier to 1284.36 and is currently trading down at 1288.10. The current intra-session trend is neutral. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.162 rising from 3.151 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 82.78 and 82.44 and is currently trading up at 82.74, the bias is currently positive and volatile. (Chart Here)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary